The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[reddevil19]

43 minutes ago, M37 said:

As much as I want to see it, very much has the look of a straight-to-streaming film, the kind that audiences have repeatedly declined to pay theater admission prices for. Also very low awareness, a film that really needed the talk show circuit to raise interest

 

Interestingly, there does seem to be a bit of a soft cap on these low level releases, unless there is some form of built in audience (lead actor, faith-based, concert, etc). A total of 23 releases have grossed between $3.4-$5.6M this year, but only 13 in $5.6-$12M range (excluding the 3 re-releases). Next Goal Wins probably becomes #24 (or maybe nudges up a bit higher with TG holiday)

This is the kind of movie that needs proper positive buzz and the reviews are...less than kind.

With the strikes, award buzz would have been its only saving grace, and that is missing.There's also another Fassbender-starring movie that is much better - and streaming at home - and ya, there's absolutely nothing going for it.

[ThomasNicole]

No idea when it’ll go on sale but should be any minute now. Doesn’t seems like a limited release

 

 

[ThomasNicole]

It’s one night only, ignore it lol

[reddevil19]

I just wanna see it at home - it's been pretty much impossible to get hold of the Abyss (either version) for years.

I kinda hate the third act, but I absolutely love the first 2 thirds - it's got great atmosphere, set design and performances driven by Cameron abusing and almost killing everyone on set. What's not to love?

[keysersoze123]

19 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Hunger Games: The BOSS MTC1

Previews - 40526/385801 762436.62 2020 shows +2804

Friday - 41113/514400 746294.15 2670 shows +4212

 

its pace has been sub par since the reviews came out. At least the friday pace is better and is already ahead of thursday. 

Hunger Games: The BOSS MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 44475/387597 832928.39 2024 shows +3949

Friday - 46131/514225 833047.61 2664 shows +5018

 

Previews I started grabbing end of day yesterday. Its only about 12 hrs of data. Let us see how one day pace goes today. I am thinking 6m previews for now based on this data. 

[Taylor89]

9 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	67	9555	10271	716	6.97%

 

Total Showings Removed Since Thursday	2
Total Seats Removed Since Thursday	340
Total Seats Sold Since Thursday	18

 

Percentage of sales versus TET's Thursday Preview FINAL:

0.70403x The Era Tours Final Previews [2.36m] [1.2x adj]

 

Next update Thursday night.

 

Is this good?😢

[el sid]

Next Goal Wins had today 51 sold tickets for Friday (with showtimes in 5 theaters).
Comps (both counted for Friday): Champions (5.1M OW) had 70 sold tickets in 6 theaters
and American Underdog (5.9M OW, only a two-day weekend but the Christmas weekend; so it probably had previews on Friday (?)) had 1 day later, on Tuesday, 45 sold tickets in 4 theaters.

Not even that bad for a niche film.

[Relevation]

Tickets now on sale for The Boy and the Heron

[misterpepp]

2 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

No idea when it’ll go on sale but should be any minute now.

 

One week from today, Nov 20.

[Porthos]

58 minutes ago, Taylor89 said:

 

Is this good?😢

 

Overall situation IMO hasn't really changed:  Doing well (perhaps very well) for a concert film, but showing no signs of breaking out.

[el sid]

Thanksgiving, counted today for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 40 (2 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 8 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 5 (1 showtime)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 3 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 4 (1 showtime)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 49 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 75 (2 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 184.

Comps (always counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday): Smile (2M from previews) had 213 sold tickets,
The Invitation (775k) had 96,
Saw X (2M) had 400,
M3gan (2.75M) had 274,
Prey for the Devil (660k) had 115,
HK (4.85M) had 591
and HE (5.4M) had 906 sold tickets.

 

Thanksgiving, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 58 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 19 (5 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 2 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 2 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 24 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 71 (5 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 176.

Comps (always counted on Monday of the release week for Friday): Smile had 229 sold tickets,
The Invitation had 87,
The Nun II had 459,

M3gan had 247,
Prey for the Devil had 149,
Old had 150,
HK had 759
and HE had 822 sold tickets.

 

Mid-teens at the moment. The presale numbers aren't bad but the jumps till today were way smaller than what I expected. Which isn't a good sign, especially for a horror movie. But let's see how big the jumps are till Wednesday.

[HummingLemon496]

When will Aquaman tickets go on sale?

[Flip]

1 hour ago, Relevation said:

Tickets now on sale for The Boy and the Heron

AMC didn’t get the memo, they’re up everywhere else

[misterpepp]

2 minutes ago, Flip said:

AMC didn’t get the memo, they’re up everywhere else

 

I'm told they should have them up around 6pm EST.

[Noctis]

If Hunger Games has $6m previews ala FB3, it'll clear $20m OD for sure. Likely $22m-$24m. 

 

It's beating The Marvels' $45m if it hits $6m+ in previews.

[Eric S'ennui]

Quorum Updates

Napoleon T-9: 34.16%

Wish T-9: 50%

Godzilla Minus One T-18: 19.77%

The Fall Guy T-109: 29.77%

 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes T-4: 55.38% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 91% chance of 20M, 69% chance of 30M, 30% chance of 40M, 26% chance of 50M, 17% chance of 60M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 67% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M

 

Thanksgiving T-4: 45.91% Awareness

Final Awareness: 85% chance of 10M, 56% chance of 20M, 32% chance of 30M, 20% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 71% chance of 20M, 29% chance of 40M

 

Trolls Band Together T-4: 55.3% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 91% chance of 20M, 69% chance of 30M, 30% chance of 40M, 26% chance of 50M, 17% chance of 60M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M

 

Next Goal Wins T-4: 19.85% Awareness

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

The Iron Claw T-39: 18.87% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

 

The Book of Clarence T-60: 16.79% Awareness

Final Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Medium Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

[emoviefan]

44 minutes ago, Noctis said:

If Hunger Games has $6m previews ala FB3, it'll clear $20m OD for sure. Likely $22m-$24m. 

 

It's beating The Marvels' $45m if it hits $6m+ in previews.

Feel like this is going to perform a lot like GB:Afterlife did two years ago at the same time. So So to good reviews opening the weekend before Thanksgiving and it will get knocked out of the number one spot by a Disney Animated movie but still hold well because of Thanksgiving week. No reason to think it does less DM than the 129m GB did and certainly better than the 204 WW that did. 

[emoviefan]

27 minutes ago, Eric Danvers said:

Quorum Updates

Napoleon T-9: 34.16%

Wish T-9: 50%

Godzilla Minus One T-18: 19.77%

The Fall Guy T-109: 29.77%

 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes T-4: 55.38% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 91% chance of 20M, 69% chance of 30M, 30% chance of 40M, 26% chance of 50M, 17% chance of 60M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 67% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M

 

Thanksgiving T-4: 45.91% Awareness

Final Awareness: 85% chance of 10M, 56% chance of 20M, 32% chance of 30M, 20% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 71% chance of 20M, 29% chance of 40M

 

Trolls Band Together T-4: 55.3% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 91% chance of 20M, 69% chance of 30M, 30% chance of 40M, 26% chance of 50M, 17% chance of 60M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M

 

Next Goal Wins T-4: 19.85% Awareness

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

The Iron Claw T-39: 18.87% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

 

The Book of Clarence T-60: 16.79% Awareness

Final Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Medium Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

The Quorom still perplexes me. Like is 29% good for the Fall Guy. I would say 3.5 months out from release good. It was probably 5-10% before the first trailer dropped and they have still have the second trailer and the major marketing push that will come from middle of January on through the NFL playoffs and Superbowl. Also this weekends 3 big  wide releases being above 40% seems good I guess if it leads to actual ticket sales.

[Hilts]

On 11/12/2023 at 9:29 PM, Hilts said:

 

Trolls Band Together							OK

Thursday - showings starting 2pm						ATP	$11.88
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-8	24	106	19	92	14,269	0.64%	26.03%
T-7	24	106	23	115	14,269	0.81%	25.00%
T-6	24	106	20	135	14,269	0.95%	17.39%
T-5	24	106	10	145	14,269	1.02%	7.41%
T-4	24	106	12	157	14,269	1.10%	8.28%
MTC1	7	26	+7	43	2,895	1.49%	19.44%
MTC2	4	27	0	34	4,460	0.76%	0.00%
MTC3	3	12	+5	39	2,536	1.54%	14.71%
Other	10	41	0	41	4,378	0.94%	0.00%
Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.676x	=	$2.10m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					0.547x	=	$2.11m

 

Matinee: 16.56%

3D: 14.65%

 

Hmm was expecting more. Needs to pick it up again to keep $2m+ on track. However I expect a strong IM (ala Sonic 2 - 15x+) because 1) outside of summer and 2) what else are kids supposed to watch, they must be sick of Paw Patrol by now...

 

Edit: I just double checked and Sonic 2 was indeed ~15x IM as pure Thu previews was $5m.

 

Trolls Band Together							OK

Thursday - showings starting 2pm						ATP	$11.99
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-7	24	106	23	115	14,269	0.81%	25.00%
T-6	24	106	20	135	14,269	0.95%	17.39%
T-5	24	106	10	145	14,269	1.02%	7.41%
T-4	24	106	12	157	14,269	1.10%	8.28%
T-3	24	106	40	197	14,269	1.38%	25.48%
MTC1	7	26	+11	54	2,895	1.87%	25.58%
MTC2	4	27	+6	40	4,460	0.90%	17.65%
MTC3	3	12	+7	46	2,536	1.81%	17.95%
Other	10	41	+16	57	4,378	1.30%	39.02%
Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.682x	=	$2.11m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					0.583x	=	$2.24m

 

Matinee: 16.24%

3D: 13.20%

 

That's more like it.

[Hilts]

On 11/12/2023 at 9:35 PM, Hilts said:

 

Thanksgiving							OK
Thursday - showings starting 7pm						ATP	$12.83
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-8	12	23	5	15	2,864	0.52%	50.00%
T-7	13	24	2	17	2,921	0.58%	13.33%
T-6	13	24	2	19	2,921	0.65%	11.76%
T-5	13	24	3	22	2,921	0.75%	15.79%
T-4	13	24	6	28	2,921	0.96%	27.27%
MTC1	5	9	+8	24	878	2.73%	50.00%
MTC2	4	7	0	1	959	0.10%	0.00%
MTC3	2	4	0	2	542	0.37%	0.00%
Other	2	4	-2	1	542	0.18%	-66.67%
Comps
Insidious: The Red Door					0.164x	=	$0.82m
Talk To Me					0.538x	=	$0.67m
The Last Voyage of the Demeter					0.683x	=	$0.51m
The Nun II					0.264x	=	$0.82m
Saw X					0.219x	=	$0.44m
The Exorcist: Believer					0.147x	=	$0.42m

 

Comp average: $610k

 

Thanksgiving							OK
Thursday - showings starting 7pm						ATP	$12.77
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-7	13	24	2	17	2,921	0.58%	13.33%
T-6	13	24	2	19	2,921	0.65%	11.76%
T-5	13	24	3	22	2,921	0.75%	15.79%
T-4	13	24	6	28	2,921	0.96%	27.27%
T-3	14	26	4	32	3,089	1.04%	14.29%
MTC1	5	9	+1	25	878	2.85%	4.17%
MTC2	4	7	0	1	959	0.10%	0.00%
MTC3	2	4	+3	5	542	0.92%	150.00%
Other	3	6	0	1	710	0.14%	0.00%
Comps
Insidious: The Red Door					0.173x	=	$0.86m
Talk To Me					0.604x	=	$0.75m
The Last Voyage of the Demeter					0.582x	=	$0.44m
The Nun II					0.216x	=	$0.67m
Saw X					0.189x	=	$0.38m
The Exorcist: Believer					0.139x	=	$0.40m

 

Comp average: $580k