The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

Showtimes are beginning to appear for Aquaman and Migration on 12/21. The former begins at 3:00 while the latter starts at 2:00.

[jeffthehat]

On 11/15/2023 at 9:16 AM, jeffthehat said:

 

Hunger Games BoSS T-1

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Show count - 25

Seats sold - 760

Total seats - 4428

New sales - 74 (+10.8%)

 

Comp 

 

0.96x The Marvels T-1 = $6.31m

---

 

Friday shows expanded a bunch like they did for Marvels last week. Grew a bit worse than yesterday. 

 

Hunger Games BoSS T-0

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Show count - 25

Seats sold - 936

Total seats - 4428

New sales - 176 (+23.2%)

 

Comps

 

0.98x The Marvels T-0 = $6.47m

1.23x FNaF T-0 = $12.65m

0.19x Barbie T-0 (single theater) = $4.09m 

2.47x Eras Thu T-0 = $6.92m / $3.8m ATP adjusted

0.16x Eras Fri T-0 = $5.47m / $3.01m ATP adjusted 

 

Avg = $6m 

---

 

Decent finish. Friday sales are slightly ahead of Marvels here, and MTC-1 Fri looks about even with Marvels too. So $20m+ Thu/Fri looks likely.

 

OW will depend on Sat/Sun. I could see something like 6m/15.5m/17.5m/12.5m happening for $50m+, but mid-40s still looks the likeliest outcome to me. 

 

 

 

Edited November 16, 2023 by jeffthehat

[filmlover]

Hunger Games sales are looking really slow near me. Gonna need to hope for some tremendous walk-up business cause not much is being sold outside - and in some cases, during - peak hours (Saturday and Sunday sales aren't looking promising either).

[keysersoze123]

@M37

 

MTC2 Previews(T-1)

Trolls - 11263/364963 141641.70 3074 shows

Hunger Games - 36855/304269 475461.19 2380 shows

 

 

Trolls is definitely doing better at MTC2 than MTC1. its possible the MTC1 ratio would be around 28% instead of 33-35% for other movies. Hunger Games is looking like hitting Marvels numbers here :-) 

[Tinalera]

Another quick and Dirty for Toronto, no comps, again have not been following BOSS

 

Hunger Games BOSS

Thursday Nov 16 Fri Nov 17 (T-1 Fri)

Toronto Ontario

Toronto	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	23	833	5855	6688	0.1245
Fri	4	48	1260	11161	12421	0.1014

 

@vafrow Like Vancouver, similar numbers. Cant explain why in your area you are getting different numbers (other than SW Ontario being SW Ontario lol)-I always find it interesting when bigger areas are compared to smaller areas, and how the percentage sold can be quite different sometimes.

 

[Scubasteve716]

Am I missing something that so many people are acting like $4 million preview number would be bad for Wonka? That would mean it gets to $30 opening weekend and $150 domestic with relative ease - basically locks. Which would be pretty decent for being the floor. 

[Hilts]

19 hours ago, Hilts said:

I will look at Wonka fully tomorrow as tickets have only been on sale a few hours.

 

But initial sets appear on a similar level to Hunger Games, however MTC2 is very light on showtimes and does not seem to have any PLF (IMAX, XD or D-Box) showings, in contrast to the other MTCs which are rolling out IMAX, Dolby, 4DX etc. It's still early but quite curious.

 

Wonka							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$14.73

 

Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-28	21	97	49	49	20,434	0.24%

 

MTC1	8	32	+34	34	6,612	0.51%
MTC2	4	12	+6	6	2,074	0.29%
MTC3	3	32	+3	3	7,573	0.04%
Other	6	21	+6	6	4,175	0.14%

 

Day 1 Comps
Barbie					0.093x	=	$2.07m
Haunted Mansion					0.817x	=	$2.53m
Five Nights At Freddy's					0.251x	=	$2.59m

 

Matinee: 2.04%

PLF: 42.86%

 

Just picked out a few where pre-sales started around a month out. Don't read too much into it as gut feel is this will be back-loaded.

[TheFlatLannister]

18 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
227	538	41547	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

28

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.429x) of Elemental $1.03M Previews

(2.502x) of Ruby Gilman $1.81M Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.42M

 

Pretty terrible growth

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
227	842	41547	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

304

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(0.518x) of Elemental $1.24M Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.24M

 

I'll go $1.2M +/- $0.2M

[TheFlatLannister]

18 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE HUNGER GAMES: THE BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
221	3144	44686	7.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

396

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.590x) of TLM $6.07M Previews

(0.576x) of FNAF $5.94M Previews

(0.826x) of The Marvels $5.45M Previews

Comps AVG: $5.82M

 

Huh, decreased in sales from yesterday which is not a great sign.

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE HUNGER GAMES: THE BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
221	3726	44686	8.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

582

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(0.556x) of TLM $5.73M Previews

(0.574x) of FNAF $5.91M Previews

(0.827x) of The Marvels $5.46M Previews

Comps AVG: $5.70M

 

All comps pointing to sub $6M previews. I'll go with $5.5M +/- $0.2M

Not a strong finish like I anticipated a week ago 

[Hilts]

21 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Trolls Band Together							OK

Thursday - showings starting 2pm						ATP	$12.23
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-5	24	106	10	145	14,269	1.02%	7.41%
T-4	24	106	12	157	14,269	1.10%	8.28%
T-3	24	106	40	197	14,269	1.38%	25.48%
T-2	24	124	36	233	15,659	1.49%	18.27%
T-1	24	147	76	309	18,502	1.67%	32.62%
MTC1	7	45	+20	78	4,882	1.60%	34.48%
MTC2	4	29	+17	65	4,904	1.33%	35.42%
MTC3	3	19	+13	69	3,329	2.07%	23.21%
Other	10	54	+28	97	5,387	1.80%	36.62%
Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.575x	=	$1.78m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					0.532x	=	$2.05m

 

Matinee: 12.94%

3D: 10.68%

 

Trolls Band Together							OK

Thursday - showings starting 2pm						ATP	$12.00
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-4	24	106	12	157	14,269	1.10%	8.28%
T-3	24	106	40	197	14,269	1.38%	25.48%
T-2	24	124	36	233	15,659	1.49%	18.27%
T-1	24	147	76	309	18,502	1.67%	32.62%
T-0	24	148	138	447	18,560	2.41%	44.66%
MTC1	7	46	+48	126	4,940	2.55%	61.54%
MTC2	4	29	+47	112	4,904	2.28%	72.31%
MTC3	3	19	+15	84	3,329	2.52%	21.74%
Other	10	54	+28	125	5,387	2.32%	28.87%
Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.373x	=	$1.16m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					0.307x	=	$1.18m
Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken					3.216x	=	$2.33m

 

Matinee: 15.66%

3D: 8.05%

 

Very weak finish but makes sense with summer comps.

 

I would guess $1.2m-$1.3m + $1m EA.

Edited November 16, 2023 by Hilts

[keysersoze123]

Wonka MTC1

Previews - 8139/447512 148632.81 2096 shows

Friday - 5722/689859 98046.16 3192 shows

 

its not the number that makes you go WOW but for a family flick without any built in fanbase this is a solid start for sure. Good show allocation as well early on.  

[YM!]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

Wonka MTC1

Previews - 8139/447512 148632.81 2096 shows

Friday - 5722/689859 98046.16 3192 shows

 

its not the number that makes you go WOW but for a family flick without any built in fanbase this is a solid start for sure. Good show allocation as well early on.  

What would be a good comparison for it? Sonic? TLM? Across? Trying to think of older-skewing PG family films.

[Relevation]

1 hour ago, Hilts said:

Day 1 Comps
Barbie					0.093x	=	$2.07m
Haunted Mansion					0.817x	=	$2.53m
Five Nights At Freddy's

Y’know I’m looking at that Haunted Mansion comp, with the knowledge that your market doesn’t have a Disney skew and neither are quite family level backloaded nor blockbuster level frontloaded, and it kinda makes sense in my mind? +/- $2.5M Thurs with something like a 10x IM to $25M? 

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, YM! said:

What would be a good comparison for it? Sonic? TLM? Across? Trying to think of older-skewing PG family films.

Mermaid still has the Disney live action fan base. They were huge last decade and we constantly got those movies every year. Sonic was based on a popular Video Game. This is something unchartered. For now I dont have any comps. Looking at OD presales 4m previews should happen but again too early to extrapolate. 

[Hilts]

22 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$14.79
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-5	24	111	65	1,129	19,969	5.65%	6.11%
T-4	24	111	129	1,258	19,969	6.30%	11.43%
T-3	24	112	188	1,446	20,028	7.22%	14.94%
T-2	25	134	292	1,738	21,890	7.94%	20.19%
T-1	25	145	383	2,121	24,064	8.81%	22.04%
MTC1	8	44	+153	871	7,843	11.11%	21.31%
MTC2	4	32	+82	356	4,830	7.37%	29.93%
MTC3	3	26	+82	495	5,972	8.29%	19.85%
Other	10	43	+66	399	5,419	7.36%	19.82%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.037x	=	$7.46m
Barbie					0.283x	=	$6.28m
Oppenheimer					0.623x	=	$6.54m
Five Nights At Freddy's					0.690x	=	$7.11m
The Marvels					1.383x	=	$9.13m

 

Matinee: 6.41%

3D: 1.27%

PLF: 33.76%

 

Comp average: $7.30m

 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$14.73
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-4	24	111	129	1,258	19,969	6.30%	11.43%
T-3	24	112	188	1,446	20,028	7.22%	14.94%
T-2	25	134	292	1,738	21,890	7.94%	20.19%
T-1	25	145	383	2,121	24,064	8.81%	22.04%
T-0	25	147	770	2,891	24,222	11.94%	36.30%
MTC1	8	46	+227	1,098	8,001	13.72%	26.06%
MTC2	4	32	+167	523	4,830	10.83%	46.91%
MTC3	3	26	+251	746	5,972	12.49%	50.71%
Other	10	43	+125	524	5,419	9.67%	31.33%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.959x	=	$6.90m
Barbie					0.272x	=	$6.03m
Oppenheimer					0.594x	=	$6.23m
Five Nights At Freddy's					0.675x	=	$6.95m
The Marvels					1.355x	=	$8.95m

 

Matinee: 7.19%

3D: 1.76%

PLF: 35.04%

 

Comp average: $7.01m

 

Well every comp dropped which isn't great news but this is performing quite well in this region whereas Marvels under-indexed quite a bit although pace here was quite similar in the end.

 

But taking that out of the equation I will go for $6.5m +/- 0.2m.

 

Lionsgate reporting $6.7m would get some headlines 😉

Edited November 16, 2023 by Hilts

[YachtyLogs]

Wanted to try my hand at tracking, so I counted Wonka tickets sold for Thursday at two theaters near where I live. 

 

WONKA 

1/1245

 

New sold: 1

New showtimes: 9

Total showtimes: 9

 

No comps as this is my first track. Starting small time, maybe I'll add more theaters for future tracks. Anyway, small start. 

Edited November 16, 2023 by YachtyLogs

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, YachtyLogs said:

Wanted to try my hand at tracking, so I counted Wonka tickets sold for Thursday at two theaters near where I live. 

 

WONKA 

1/1245

 

New sold: 1

New showtimes: 9

Total showtimes: 9

 

No comps as this is my first track. Starting small time, maybe I'll add more theaters for future tracks. Anyway, small start. 

What location?

[YachtyLogs]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

What location?

Milwaukee area. 

[TwoMisfits]

11 minutes ago, YachtyLogs said:

Wanted to try my hand at tracking, so I counted Wonka tickets sold for Thursday at two theaters near where I live. 

 

WONKA 

1/1245

 

New sold: 1

New showtimes: 9

Total showtimes: 9

 

No comps as this is my first track. Starting small time, maybe I'll add more theaters for future tracks. Anyway, small start. 

 

Non-AMC/non-Regal screen, right?

[YachtyLogs]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Non-AMC/non-Regal screen, right?

Correct, both Marcus.