The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[excel1]

1) I am so thrilled to see my constant use of the phrase Aquabro has caught on.

 

2) The first Aquabro was hardly a show stopper opener. Low expectations here. 

 

 

[HummingLemon496]

I think early presales are gonna be extremely slow. I don't think we're gonna get a big opening weekend from Aquaman. Maybe like $35M would be a good over/under for Aquabro 2's OW

Edited November 18, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Spidey Freak]

9 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

It's kind of like the Kathleen Kennedy stuff where there are legitimate reasons why Lucasfilm would probably benefit from a change of leadership, but also the second they do it'll activate the most unhinged conspiracy elements of the Star Wars fandom with tons of ridiculous bullshit

 

At this point tho, even if Kathleen Kennedy is released tomorrow morning, the duration of her presidency is already double that of Trump's 😛

She has outlived all the hater demands to get her ousted for 6 years now. Any troll arguments will be weak and just for the sake of it.

[M37]

2 hours ago, Bob Train said:

What is the expected IM for Aquaman? It will drop hard on Sunday due to Christmas eve. The Flash had flat Sunday due to Juneteenth/Father's day.

 

However, Aquaman may play to a more casual audience.

The last time we had this calendar configuration, several of the films chose to open on Wednesday 12/20 instead, with only Pitch Perfect 3 (of the majors) opting for Friday, and would up with a ~5x ... but that was with decently large TFri to Saturday drop, so probably not the best comp for Aquaman. Thinking it performs more like a summer release, with a soft Sunday, probably closer to 6x (?)

 

Speaking of summer, that late in the calendar there will be enough schools out and vacations going that its basically summer, would lean towards using those comps to account for the higher final day walk-up rate. And though I don't like this other comp for a few reasons, given the start date of ticket sales and release date, don't see how Avatar 2 can be avoided (adjusted for ATP), at least for the first week or so (through the holiday) before the T-X are more appropriate 

[keysersoze123]

Both Hunger Games/Trolls did better than what I expected from my PS yesterday. Of course both of them under indexed big time at MTC as well. 50m for Hungers Games is huge as is 30m for Trolls. 

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Both Hunger Games/Trolls did better than what I expected from my PS yesterday. Of course both of them under indexed big time at MTC as well. 50m for Hungers Games is huge as is 30m for Trolls. 

Exactly and yet the usual suspects will do their thing.

[Mojoguy]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Both Hunger Games/Trolls did better than what I expected from my PS yesterday. Of course both of them under indexed big time at MTC as well. 50m for Hungers Games is huge as is 30m for Trolls. 

Those walkups...

[HummingLemon496]

3 hours ago, Bob Train said:

What is the expected IM for Aquaman? It will drop hard on Sunday due to Christmas eve. The Flash had flat Sunday due to Juneteenth/Father's day.

 

However, Aquaman may play to a more casual audience.

7x (I am totally not pulling a random number out of my ass)

[Relevation]

Speaking of WB Christmas 2023 releases (and moving to one that actually looks good)

 

Does anyone have sales updates for The Color Purple? Tickets have been up since Nov 1, it’s got a PIF thing going on inflating the ticket price, and it has really strong social reactions that dropped last night

[HummingLemon496]

10 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Speaking of WB Christmas 2023 releases (and moving to one that actually looks good)

 

Does anyone have sales updates for The Color Purple? Tickets have been up since Nov 1, it’s got a PIF thing going on inflating the ticket price, and it has really strong social reactions that dropped last night

Ok unrelated but since tracking is starting in T-2 days (!!!!!), what are you expecting for Aquaman 2's Thursday night previews? 

Edited November 18, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Relevation]

17 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Ok unrelated but since tracking is starting in T-2 days (!!!!!), what are you expecting for Aquaman 2's Thursday night previews? 

Was interested to see what The Color Purple was doing but uhhhhh

 

Reverse engineering from M37’s 6x IM guess to get an OW number I feel comfortable about with predicted backloading due to the nonexistent state of the DCEU fandom, maybe something like $4.5-5.3M as a day one guess? (That should take it to around $27-32M OW, I expect a notch above $30M for the final figure but again, backloading and probably decent walkups factored in)

[HummingLemon496]

54 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Was interested to see what The Color Purple was doing but uhhhhh

 

Reverse engineering from M37’s 6x IM guess to get an OW number I feel comfortable about with predicted backloading due to the nonexistent state of the DCEU fandom, maybe something like $4.5-5.3M as a day one guess? (That should take it to around $27-32M OW, I expect a notch above $30M for the final figure but again, backloading and probably decent walkups factored in)

 

Aquaman 2 below Shazam 2 opening weekend. Shrek 5 above The Force Awakens domestically. You know the rules.

Edited November 18, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[charlie Jatinder]

I think previews were in fact $5M. Will check in a bit because OD looks like $19M type. FRI is def $14M though

[PrinceRico]

Is anybody Tracking The Color Purple? Reactions ayt strong amd I notice my Christmas day showing is full.

[Hilts]

12 hours ago, Relevation said:

Speaking of WB Christmas 2023 releases (and moving to one that actually looks good)

 

Does anyone have sales updates for The Color Purple? Tickets have been up since Nov 1, it’s got a PIF thing going on inflating the ticket price, and it has really strong social reactions that dropped last night

 

1 hour ago, PrinceRico said:

Is anybody Tracking The Color Purple? Reactions ayt strong amd I notice my Christmas day showing is full.

 

I believe @abracadabra1998 is and I am as well but don't have any comps this far out so haven't been sharing it yet.

 

There are no previews but looking at OD over 50% of the sales are for matinee showings in my region which is bringing down the ATP.

 

But at 30+ days out it's doing quite well, majority of sales are from MTC2 as well which is quite unusual and especially out of the gate. Without comps difficult to put any metrics on it and the calendar configuration and Monday release makes things even more tricky. I'll try and post my numbers later if the reactions have made any material impact.

[abracadabra1998]

25 minutes ago, Hilts said:

 

 

I believe @abracadabra1998 is and I am as well but don't have any comps this far out so haven't been sharing it yet.

 

There are no previews but looking at OD over 50% of the sales are for matinee showings in my region which is bringing down the ATP.

 

But at 30+ days out it's doing quite well, majority of sales are from MTC2 as well which is quite unusual and especially out of the gate. Without comps difficult to put any metrics on it and the calendar configuration and Monday release makes things even more tricky. I'll try and post my numbers later if the reactions have made any material impact.

Yeah, pretty good numbers, I’m doing weekly updates until about T-32 and then I’ll start adding some comps biweekly. The fandango deal also throws a big wrench into things, so this is a tricky one

[Grand Cine]

25 minutes ago, Hilts said:

 

 

I believe @abracadabra1998 is and I am as well but don't have any comps this far out so haven't been sharing it yet.

 

There are no previews but looking at OD over 50% of the sales are for matinee showings in my region which is bringing down the ATP.

 

But at 30+ days out it's doing quite well, majority of sales are from MTC2 as well which is quite unusual and especially out of the gate. Without comps difficult to put any metrics on it and the calendar configuration and Monday release makes things even more tricky. I'll try and post my numbers later if the reactions have made any material impact.

3 hours ago, PrinceRico said:

Is anybody Tracking The Color Purple? Reactions ayt strong amd I notice my Christmas day showing is full.

 

I think for Color People if the reviews are excellent like the social media said , it could be a surprise and could have a great run due to the desert of January-February and the Oscar race . It could be a hit like Greatest Showman

 

[Porthos]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think previews were in fact $5M. Will check in a bit because OD looks like $19M type. FRI is def $14M though

 

 

Spoiler

Could have worked in something to try to reference how public box office gross reports and The Truth can have, at times, only a casual relationship to each other (***PUERTO RICO TO THE RESCUE***).

 

But, honestly, directly referencing the meme plus Jat/Jake being so close, why mess with perfection? ❤️

 

[YachtyLogs]

23 hours ago, YachtyLogs said:

WONKA

T-27

Small SE Wisconsin Sample

 

1/1245 - (0.08%)

 

New sold: 0

New showtimes: 0

Total showtimes: 9

Seats added: 0

Total sellouts: 0

 

No sales today. When I track Aquaman and Migration, I'll add at least one other theater in the area for further variety. 

WONKA

T-26

Small SE Wisconsin Sample

 

3/1245 - (0.24%)

 

New sold: 2

New showtimes: 0

Total showtimes: 9

Seats added: 0

Total sellouts: 0

 

Two sales today. Maybe in the evening tonight more will get purchased, who knows. The two sales were in a different theater than the first sale.

[Hilts]

3 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

 

I believe @abracadabra1998 is and I am as well but don't have any comps this far out so haven't been sharing it yet.

 

There are no previews but looking at OD over 50% of the sales are for matinee showings in my region which is bringing down the ATP.

 

But at 30+ days out it's doing quite well, majority of sales are from MTC2 as well which is quite unusual and especially out of the gate. Without comps difficult to put any metrics on it and the calendar configuration and Monday release makes things even more tricky. I'll try and post my numbers later if the reactions have made any material impact.

 

The Color Purple							OK
Monday						ATP	$10.45
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-41	16	69	0	242	8,357	2.90%	0.00%
T-40	16	69	0	242	8,357	2.90%	0.00%
T-39	17	73	18	260	8,583	3.03%	7.44%
T-38	17	73	16	276	8,583	3.22%	6.15%
T-37	17	72	7	283	8,319	3.40%	2.54%
MTC1	7	27	+4	81	2,354	3.44%	5.19%
MTC2	4	19	0	129	2,808	4.59%	0.00%
MTC3	3	13	+3	60	1,714	3.50%	5.26%
Other	3	13	0	13	1,443	0.90%	0.00%

 

Definitely picked up the last few days I assume when the reactions came out.