The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

 

Glad they finally realised movies are for big screen. Size always matters. 

[filmlover]

Unlikely they make much since these are no longer "new" movies but happy that theaters have some content the next few months.

[TwoMisfits]

PLF 14 local set...all new movies had no change from presale sets b/c it's getting tight.  And the theater decided to just spread the wealth for the week...and to torch Beyonce the most for the holdovers...maybe expensive tickets to non-foreign films just don't sell well at Cinemarks...

 

NEW

The Boy and the Heron - 2 screens (1 PLF screen / 1 regular screen - 8 showings) 

Die Hard - 1 screen (4 showings) 

Hi Nanna (foreign) - 1 screen (1 PLF showing - splitting with Animal / 3 regular)

Waitress - .5 screen (2 showings)

 

Returning

Animal - 1 screen (.5 PLF / .5 regular)

Godzilla - 1 screen

The Shift - 1 screen

Silent Night - 1 screen

Wish - 1 screen

Napoleon - 1 screen

HG - BOSS - 1 screen

Trolls - .75 screen - loses late show to Saltburn

Renaissance - 1 SHOWING (not a misprint - this concert obviously did not sell at Cinemarks and will likely be dropped Dec 15)

Marvels - 2 showings - this is also likely getting dropped Dec 15

Saltburn - 1 showing - will also likely be dropped Dec 15

 

There are 1-2 showings held back, probably waiting to see if Waitress or Boy and the Heron needs them more (Waitress is selling well here, but doesn't have a lot of space)...or to book an extra foreign film...

 

Drops

Thanksgiving

Edited December 5, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Shawn Robbins]

On 12/3/2023 at 8:41 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

I hope the trades get to the bottom of that, or maybe @Shawn will provide us a glimpse into it. I'm already peeved about not knowing Godzilla's EA split and The Shift's previews not even being reported, makes tracking a bit frustrating when you don't even know if it'll get reported or not

No luck on either so far. Angel seemed more apt to eventually give it, but we will see.

 

I agree, it's frustrating. To be honest, it backfires on any studio if/when any of us ever wildly mistrack a similar film by them. I have no problem saying, "well, if you'd have given the number for XYZ movie, we might have had more accurate comps and projections."

[Super]

6 hours ago, M37 said:

Had a bit of time, so looked at the busiest location (AMC Veterans 24) in Tampa for XMAS Day

 

Title = Tickets Sold (Shows)

• Color Purple = 205 (7)
• Wonka = 75 (4) !!!
• Aquaman = 6 (9)
• Migration = 11 (7)
• Ferrari = 7 (4)
• Boys in Boat = 0 (4)
• Iron Claw = 2 (4)
• Poor Things = 1 (4)

Spot-checking the rest of the market, TCP is actually undervalued in this sample, as they gave it the Dolby but this audience doesn't seem to care (only 69 tickets sold), and the other screen is small and nearly sold out. Those TCP sales are are ridiculous across the market for 3 weeks from release; the limiting factor is not enough screens & seats, as more are needed.

On the other end, Wonka is a relative high outlier at this location, but still by far the second strongest title for pre-sales across the market, which frankly I did not expect given the earlier release date. Migration and Aquaman are roughly even, fluctuating depending on location (and natural variability in smaller numbers)

 

Christmas Day Box Office Early Projection

1. TCP (by a LOT)

2. Wonka (by a good margin)

3. Aquaman (helped by PLF/ATP)

4. Migration (might be 3rd)

5. who knows?

 

To answer the initial question, while both Aquaman and Migration should be backloaded from XMas day onward, there isn't much in the way of sales just yet, but we're still far from release, so we'll see

 

@keysersoze123 or @rehpyc, something maybe y'all want to take a look at on a larger scale when you have a chance?

Appreciate the info.

[MovieMan89]

Just dawned on me 158 and 408 are the low marks for Illumination animation DOM and WW. Everything besides Pets 2 and Sing 2 have been massive at the box office for them. And Sing 2 has an asterisk of pandemic. We don’t talk about how impressive it all is nearly enough honestly. Certainly something to consider before anyone counts Migration out. 

[YM!]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Just dawned on me 158 and 408 are the low marks for Illumination animation DOM and WW. Everything besides Pets 2 and Sing 2 have been massive at the box office for them. And Sing 2 has an asterisk of pandemic. We don’t talk about how impressive it all is nearly enough honestly. Certainly something to consider before anyone counts Migration out. 

Hop did barely over 100 and just over 190m WW but that was a hybrid and a holiday movie.

[Arlborn]

4 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

 

Oh my. I think Turning Red has potential for a mini breakout depending on their release strategy here, at least it should perform well per theater. @cannastop

[cannastop]

8 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

Oh my. I think Turning Red has potential for a mini breakout depending on their release strategy here, at least it should perform well per theater. @cannastop

Hmm well I'm personally a huge fan of Turning Red... I think if they report the numbers it will do better than Luca and probably Soul too... because Turning Red gets the best ratings on Disney+ of the three movies.

[MovieMan89]

9 minutes ago, YM! said:

Hop did barely over 100 and just over 190m WW but that was a hybrid and a holiday movie.

Thats not an animated movie anymore than Alvin movies are. It was also Easter. 

[TwoMisfits]

And non-PLF Cinemark 12 set...and again, nothing expanding from presales and Beyonce got slammed...and it's a spread the wealth strategy, with Marvels and Beyonce looking like an exit on the 15th (with some foreign films)...

 

Here's the set...

 

NEW

The Boy and the Heron - 1 screen/4 showings

Hi Nanna (foreign) - 1 screen

Extra-Ordinary Man/Joram (foreign) - .5 screen /1 showing each

 

Holdovers

Godzilla - 1 screen

The Shift - 1 screen

Animal - 1 screen + 1 extra showing 

Wish - 1 screen

Napoleon - 1 screen

Trolls - 1 screen

Hunger Games - BOSS - 1 screen

Thanksgiving - 1 screen

Marvels - .5 screen

Beyonce - 1 showing

 

Dropped

Nothing

 

 

 

[keysersoze123]

Good news is Heron has added tons of shows for Thu/Fri. I feel better about it opening in double digits. Let us hope for some great walkups considering universal rave it has. 

[Grand Cine]

19 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Good news is Heron has added tons of shows for Thu/Fri. I feel better about it opening in double digits. Let us hope for some great walkups considering universal rave it has. 

so maybe N°1 this weekend ?

[Brainbug]

24 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Good news is Heron has added tons of shows for Thu/Fri. I feel better about it opening in double digits. Let us hope for some great walkups considering universal rave it has. 

 

Woudnt it be fascinating to see Heron and Godzilla Minus One battling it out for the No 1 spot this weekend? I mean has there ever been an instance where two foreign movies (and from the same country, Japan, as well!) occupied places 1 and 2?

 

This all ofc assuming that Minus One has a spectacular hold and Heron finding a big enough audience.

[vafrow]

Quick update on Cineplex.

 

One, it looks like Wonka won't be getting much of an expansion. Full Thursday sets are out and there's no additional showtimes for it.

 

Second, it looks like Aquaman will finally be up for sale soon. It's in the advance sale section, but no showtime updates yet, but it's likely coming.

[abracadabra1998]

No T-2 update from me today sadly, life was just a lil too busy today. I’ll make up for it with actually being able to do a T-1 hour update on Thursday in addition to tomorrow’s numbers, so that should help with gauging walk-ups as well

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Good news is Heron has added tons of shows for Thu/Fri. I feel better about it opening in double digits. Let us hope for some great walkups considering universal rave it has. 

Showings look incredible for me around here in terms of seats sold, and that’s through the whole weekend. I’m getting excited for true anime breakout potential, at least for OW

[VanillaSkies]

12 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Showings look incredible for me around here in terms of seats sold, and that’s through the whole weekend. I’m getting excited for true anime breakout potential, at least for OW

I’m noticing that a lot of IMAX shows are splitting between English dubbed and Japanese with subtitles versions. 
 

Maybe this will actually push a lot of the audience further into the weekend. For example, if I am someone who wants to see the English dubbed version in IMAX at the AMC Century City, there is only a 9:30pm show this Friday. The other IMAX showtimes that day are Japanese with subtitles. So if that showing is sold out (which currently it’s already half full, so likely to sell out), I have to wait until Saturday or Sunday to go. 
 

Just a thought. 
Not something we ever see with English language films, but something to consider here, especially since the English dubbed version has a lot of recognizable names as the voice actors. 

[keysersoze123]

On 12/4/2023 at 6:57 AM, keysersoze123 said:

The Boy and the heron MTC1

Monday Imax - 15832/45227 309068.08 144 shows

Wed early shows - 5011/11000 77124.61 66 shows

Previews - 5979/83871 97740.73 553 shows

Friday -  9669/152950 154080.39 995 shows

 

If I am not wrong it has had limited shows in some big markets for a while. Its hard movie to predict. but with a limited release double digit may not be easy.  

The Boy and the heron MTC1

Monday Imax Final - 18777/45227 360088.07 144 shows

Wed early shows - 6373/12448 97203.13 77 shows

Previews - 8928/141549 146286.14 984 shows

Friday -  15225/272125 243598.85 1773 shows

 

Monday walkups was just ok. I am not expect wednesday to move the needle that much but its playing wider at other MTCs which do not have IMAX. Already friday sales relative to thursday shows there is potential for good OW. I think 3m+ true friday should happen. 

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, cannastop said:

Hmm well I'm personally a huge fan of Turning Red... I think if they report the numbers it will do better than Luca and probably Soul too... because Turning Red gets the best ratings on Disney+ of the three movies.

Soul is Docter's movie. So I think that has the best potential though releasing after the movies being available on D+ is a different ball game. May be disney should pull those movies off the platform for next 3-4 months while the movie is being released :-)