The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Based on the rating (PG-13) and runtime (2:08) it appears the closest movie to match is The Boys in the Boat.

 

Which btw is looking to have 4:00 Early Access shows on the 17th as well.

They should hide it a little more if they want to keep it a secret.

 

Here in the UK they’re all listed as a 15 rating and 90 minutes so that people can’t guess. 

[vafrow]

On 12/7/2023 at 5:28 AM, vafrow said:

 

Wonka, T-8, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 46

New Sales since last update: 2

Growth: 4.5%

Showtimes: 19

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 2/4

Early Evening: 37/8

Late Evening: 7/7

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 22/6

VIP: 12/4

IMAX: 12/6

4DX: 0/3

 

Comps

0.238x of HG:BoSS for $1.4M

 

More meh

 

Expand  

 

Wonka, T-7, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 46

New Sales since last update: 7

Growth: 15.2%

Showtimes: 19

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 5/4

Early Evening: 37/8

Late Evening: 11/7

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 25/6

VIP: 16/4

IMAX: 12/6

4DX: 0/3

 

Comps

0.252x of HG:BoSS for $1.5M

 

Still nothing noteworthy 

[Eric S'ennui]

Quorum Updates

The Boy and the Heron T-1: 22.07% Awareness

Eileen T-1: 15.24%

The Boys in the Boat T-18: 21.01%

The Color Purple T-18: 45.65%

Cabrini T-92: 9.81%

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire T-127: 34.13%

Furiosa T-169: 20.96%

 

Wonka T-8: 70.89% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 90M, 80% chance of 100M, 20% chance of 200M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

 

Mean Girls T-36: 43.83% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 95% chance of 20M, 90% chance of 30M, 62% chance of 40M

Low Awareness: N/A

 

The Beekeeper T-36: 29.31% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 19% chance of 20M

Medium Awareness: 69% chance of 10M, 23% chance of 20M

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, Eric Wonka said:

Wonka T-8: 70.89% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 90M, 80% chance of 100M, 20% chance of 200M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

This is very funny. I wonder if you have some people answering like “yes I’m aware of the wonka movie” but they’re thinking of one of the other ones 😂

Edited December 8, 2023 by Legion Again

[RamblinRed]

9 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Christmas Day:

 

The Color Purple (T-18):

Day: T-18	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	66	197	679	7122	9.53

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		300	87	44.18
Marcus:		107	15	15.76
Alamo:		42	2	6.19
Other chains:		230	93	33.87

 

Comps:

4.3x Wonka: ???

2.28x Killers of the Flower Moon: $5.92 Million

1.09x FNAF: $11.21 Million

0.63x Oppy: $6.57 Million

MI7: Missed

0.76x Barbie (THU): $16.2 Million

 

Average: $9.98 Million

 

THE COLOR PURPLE SWEEP!!!! Jokes and some very questionable comps aside, I mostly just wanted to show just how bonkers this is doing. 197 over the last three days is just insane. A couple of theaters have gotten the memo and significantly expanded their sets, but most haven't, and I really think this will run into some huge capacity issues because of the Christmas screen crunch. Still, you just love to see it!

 

I wonder if TCP could negatively impact Wonka's legs. Both are musicals (even if Wonka seems to be hiding that in its advertising).

While I wouldn't necessarily assume they have similar audiences, will some choose to see only TCP instead of Wonka if they think it is a better musical?

[M37]

Quote

Barbie T-8: 63.87% Awareness

 

Barbie T-1: 75.02% Awareness

1 hour ago, Eric Wonka said:

Wonka T-8: 70.89% Awareness

 

43 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

This is very funny. I wonder if you have some people answering like “yes I’m aware of the wonka movie” but they’re thinking of one of the other ones 😂

If you look at other high profile sequels and such with 150+ day Quorum tracking, there's about a 35% baseline awareness, of which some portion is quite possibly related to that (or just people who always say yes in the survey). But Wonka has still gained 35% from that level, so WB's advertising strategy is apparently working. Its just a question how much that awareness translates into actual interest, people will to pay to watch

[titanic2187]

15 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

It is locked to take the non-TV based anime OW record (not that that’s very impressive tbh). Now we see if it can compete with the Dragon Balls, Demon Slayers, and Jujutsu Kaisens for DOM opening… 

GKiDS biggest hit was WwY at 8m. Heron may actually triple the record. A landmark for 15 years company, especially given the fact that the distributor has been struggling in recent years in the face of Netflix for Oscar race.

[PrinceRico]

Starting to think that people are just not into Wonka or maybe lack of star power. Shouldn't it be showing signs of life by now like TCP by now?

[BadOlCatSylvester]

9 minutes ago, PrinceRico said:

Starting to think that people are just not into Wonka or maybe lack of star power. Shouldn't it be showing signs of life by now like TCP by now?

I've been saying for a while that Wonka could be another Mary Poppins Returns in the making, in that it's a very old character that the rights holder overestimated modern audiences' interest in. This issue is nothing new of course, as both John Carter and The Lone Ranger suffered from it. At least Mary Poppins didn't, and Wonka most likely won't, do anywhere near as poorly as those. Wonka should end with a decent if unremarkable $250M-$300M worldwide total. I still think there's a chance it could outgross Aquaman 2 worldwide.

[JonathanMB]

I think Wonka is just not the kind of movie that people are going to rush out to for previews, but once they have free time for the holidays it will come alive. That earlier post about Wonka's Christmas Day sales had me curious about my area, and there's one AMC in the Chicago suburbs that has 49 tickets sold for previews across six showtimes (including 22 from three IMAX shows), but on Christmas  there are 71 tickets sold from three showtimes. Most of those are from the first showtime, nearly sold out with 58 tickets. I checked some other theaters in the area and found that Wonka's previews sales are pretty anemic (5-15 tickets sold) but the movie then has a similar amount already sold for Christmas. As long as WOM is good (and early signs in other countries looks positive enough?) I think it'll have a pretty leggy run.

[filmlover]

Funnily enough, HR just published an article about the Hide Your Musicals marketing approach for Wonka and Mean Girls (The Color Purple has been highlighting the singing in its campaign).

 

‘Wonka,’ ‘Mean Girls’: Are Studios Shy to Market Musicals as Musicals? – The Hollywood Reporter

[Shawn Robbins]

FYI, The Shift's previews were $372,417.

 

@abracadabra1998

[Shawn Robbins]

22 hours ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

Thanks for all you do for the box office community, @Shawn! It's awesome how collaborative and team-spirted you are with the folks on BOT.

 

Btw, on your updated Box Office Pro chart, you currently still have GMO listed in 2400 theaters for the weekend. Isn't its new theater count ~2540 based on the widely circulated posts from Toho @Godzilla_Toho and Deadline (which specified 2540) last evening?

 

Link to Godzilla Toho Tweet

Thanks so much for your kind and supportive words, @Jerri Blank-Diggler. Just fortunate and honored to do my small part in this industry I've dedicated most of my life to so far. This community and friends here at BOT have been a huge part of that for more than a decade now, through the good times and the not-so-good.

 

(Also, I updated the theater count when I saw your post.)  

[Shawn Robbins]

$2.39m Boy and the Heron previews, includes early access but does not seem to include the NY-LA preview engagements which the studio will add into daily grosses on a "prorated basis" going forward.

[PrinceRico]

2 hours ago, RamblinRed said:

 

I wonder if TCP could negatively impact Wonka's legs. Both are musicals (even if Wonka seems to be hiding that in its advertising).

While I wouldn't necessarily assume they have similar audiences, will some choose to see only TCP instead of Wonka if they think it is a better musical?

Definitely see TCP having great legs. Hype is huge and WOM will be strong. 

[ZeroHour]

1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I've been saying for a while that Wonka could be another Mary Poppins Returns in the making, in that it's a very old character that the rights holder overestimated modern audiences' interest in. This issue is nothing new of course, as both John Carter and The Lone Ranger suffered from it. At least Mary Poppins didn't, and Wonka most likely won't, do anywhere near as poorly as those. Wonka should end with a decent if unremarkable $250M-$300M worldwide total. I still think there's a chance it could outgross Aquaman 2 worldwide.

I agree with you except that there's so much less competition now than MPR faced in 2018. Audiences had Aquaman, Bumblebee, Into the Spiderverse, the Mule, and even animated hits from November still playing to a smaller degree (The Grinch, Ralph Breaks the Internet). I do think there's an audience that will see something over Christmas week and as long as audiences like Wonka as much as critics, it's in the best position still to break out even from a smaller opening. It's biggest potential issue is probably with men, but with lack of alternatives they may just go along with the rest of the family.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

27 minutes ago, ZeroHour said:

I agree with you except that there's so much less competition now than MPR faced in 2018. Audiences had Aquaman, Bumblebee, Into the Spiderverse, the Mule, and even animated hits from November still playing to a smaller degree (The Grinch, Ralph Breaks the Internet). I do think there's an audience that will see something over Christmas week and as long as audiences like Wonka as much as critics, it's in the best position still to break out even from a smaller opening. It's biggest potential issue is probably with men, but with lack of alternatives they may just go along with the rest of the family.

I don't know if lack of competition is as much of a benefit as it once was. If none of the holiday offerings are appealing, then people just won't go to the movies. I'm sure Netflix has a big release around that time, and Disney+ has Percy Jackson.

[ZeroHour]

4 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I don't know if lack of competition is as much of a benefit as it once was. If none of the holiday offerings are appealing, then people just won't go to the movies. I'm sure Netflix has a big release around that time, and Disney+ has Percy Jackson.

Yeah and you may be right. This year will be a good test of that. It’s definitely the weakest lineup in recent memory for the holiday season. (Netflix has their big Zack Snyder film releasing over Christmas). 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

1 hour ago, ZeroHour said:

Yeah and you may be right. This year will be a good test of that. It’s definitely the weakest lineup in recent memory for the holiday season. (Netflix has their big Zack Snyder film releasing over Christmas). 

Oh yeah, Rebel Moon, I forgot about that for a couple of seconds.

[Flip]

7 hours ago, Eric Wonka said:

Quorum Updates

The Boy and the Heron T-1: 22.07% Awareness

Eileen T-1: 15.24%

The Boys in the Boat T-18: 21.01%

The Color Purple T-18: 45.65%

Cabrini T-92: 9.81%

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire T-127: 34.13%

Furiosa T-169: 20.96%

 

Wonka T-8: 70.89% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 90M, 80% chance of 100M, 20% chance of 200M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

 

Mean Girls T-36: 43.83% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 95% chance of 20M, 90% chance of 30M, 62% chance of 40M

Low Awareness: N/A

 

The Beekeeper T-36: 29.31% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 19% chance of 20M

Medium Awareness: 69% chance of 10M, 23% chance of 20M

Even TWOW awareness wasn’t this high right?