The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[AniNate]

Evidently you still can't trust tracking w Illumination. They're not like Disney, walkups are the MO here.

 

Definitely wouldn't say Universal left the movie to die though, they promoted it as much as they usually do their movies, it just didn't vocally interest many people online.

 

 

Edited December 22, 2023 by AniNate

[dallas]

3 minutes ago, CaptainJackSparrow said:

Left to die? Was Universal not confident in the movie?

I don't think Universal had any confidence in this film whatsoever. But it's showing some signs of life. If WOM is great then it should have decent legs.

[Borobudur]

Theater Counts for December 22

Movie	Distributor	Theaters	Previous Theaters	Change
Wonka	Warner Bros.	4,213	4,203	+10
Migration	Universal Pictures	3,761		New
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom	Warner Bros.	3,706		New
Anyone But You	Sony Pictures	3,055		New
Trolls: Band Together	Universal Pictures	2,210	3,157	-947
Wish	Walt Disney	1,740	3,100	-2,360
Poor Things	Searchlight Pictures	800	82	+718
Napoleon	Sony Pictures	750	2,601	-1851
Salaar: Cease Fire — Part 1	Prathyangira Cinemas	750		New
The Holdovers	Focus Features	316	587	-271
Saltburn	Amazon Studios	267	476	-209
The Marvels	Walt Disney	220	960	-740
Thanksgiving	Sony Pictures	171	1,107	-936
Journey to Bethlehem	Sony Pictures	73	272	-199
Killers of the Flower Moon	Paramount Pictures	49	132	-83
American Fiction	Amazon Studios	40	7	+33
Oppenheimer	Universal Pictures	25	122	-97
Barbie	Warner Bros	15	19	-4
All of Us Strangers	Searchlight Pictures	4		New

  Holiday bloodbath begin

[HummingLemon496]

24 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Theater Counts for December 22

Movie	Distributor	Theaters	Previous Theaters	Change
Wonka	Warner Bros.	4,213	4,203	+10
Migration	Universal Pictures	3,761		New
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom	Warner Bros.	3,706		New
Anyone But You	Sony Pictures	3,055		New
Trolls: Band Together	Universal Pictures	2,210	3,157	-947
Wish	Walt Disney	1,740	3,100	-2,360
Poor Things	Searchlight Pictures	800	82	+718
Napoleon	Sony Pictures	750	2,601	-1851
Salaar: Cease Fire — Part 1	Prathyangira Cinemas	750		New
The Holdovers	Focus Features	316	587	-271
Saltburn	Amazon Studios	267	476	-209
The Marvels	Walt Disney	220	960	-740
Thanksgiving	Sony Pictures	171	1,107	-936
Journey to Bethlehem	Sony Pictures	73	272	-199
Killers of the Flower Moon	Paramount Pictures	49	132	-83
American Fiction	Amazon Studios	40	7	+33
Oppenheimer	Universal Pictures	25	122	-97
Barbie	Warner Bros	15	19	-4
All of Us Strangers	Searchlight Pictures	4		New

  Holiday bloodbath begin

Barbenheimer until 2024 or bust

[rehpyc]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I definitely think 4.5m is in play. Whether that happens depends on West Coast walkups 🙂

 

I wonder if @rehpyc will have an update from his end. He was on the point last week.

MTC3 typically performs well on CBM films, but fearing a bit of underperformance here. Underperformance? 4.5M Average performance? 4.25M

 

So let's say 4.375M +/- .125M

 

Okay, I think I was being a bit too pessimistic in the MTC's performance, but don't think it'll be to the degree as previous comps.

 

Going a little more conservatively, without much time to analyze, 4M +/- .25M.

Edited December 22, 2023 by rehpyc

[TheFlatLannister]

On 12/20/2023 at 8:13 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Christmas 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
227	6223	44739	13.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

356

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

24

 

SELLOUTS

2

 

COMPS

T-5

 

Comps with Thursday-Tuesday previews *Not good comps because Thursday/Tuesday previews compared to full day Holiday of Box office* 

(3.656x) of Mi7 $25.59M 

(1.713x) of TLM $17.65M 

(0.998x) of Barbie $21.05M 

Comps AVG: $21.43M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Christmas 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
229	7036	45008	15.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

813

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SELLOUTS

2

 

COMPS

T-4

 

Comps with Thursday-Tuesday previews *Not good comps because Thursday/Tuesday previews compared to full day Holiday of Box office* 

(3.805x) of Mi7 $26.63M 

(1.839x) of TLM $18.95M 

(1.045x) of Barbie $22.06M 

Comps AVG: $22.55M

 

Wouldn't be shocked if this hits something like $25M OD at this point

[ThomasNicole]

If it does 4.5M and the sales keep doing good as it is (indicating bad reviews aren’t affecting it), it can try 27-30M 3-day if the CS is at least a B+

 

Bad but could be worse, same goes for Migration. Maybe the weekend overall will be decent afterall.

[dallas]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

If it does 4.5M and the sales keep doing good as it is (indicating bad reviews aren’t affecting it), it can try 27-30M 3-day if the CS is at least a B+

 

Bad but could be worse, same goes for Migration. Maybe the weekend overall will be decent afterall.

Maybe the trades weren't crazy when they said a $40M 4-day lol

[TheFlatLannister]

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MEAN GIRLS

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
135	108	26355	0.41%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-21

 

(0.146x) of Wonka $512k Previews

Comps AVG: $512k

 

If anyone has any comp ideas let me know

[Grebacio]

1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MEAN GIRLS

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
135	108	26

 

If anyone has any comp ideas let me know

Hunger Games, The Marvels

[rehpyc]

Some fun piece of information - MTC 1/2/3 show counts for Xmas:

Aquaman: 4,002/2,651/3,785

Migration: 4,030/2,953/3,359

Purple: 4,564/2,921/2,854

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

Evidently you still can't trust tracking w Illumination. They're not like Disney, walkups are the MO here.

 

Definitely wouldn't say Universal left the movie to die though, they promoted it as much as they usually do their movies, it just didn't vocally interest many people online.

 

 

Thats not even close to being true. Illumination marketing is always ferocious and omnipresent. This was lower key than Disney’s Strange World campaign, an infamous “we don’t care” one from this decade. Or compare it to Wish marketing for example, which was huge and much more in line with what Illumination would typically do. 
 

Like I’ve said, they clearly spent this year’s marketing budget on Mario. They did also shaft Pets 2 in marketing, so I guess this has happened once before. But a pretty different case when we were talking about sequel to one of the biggest original animated movies of all time (strange in its own right though).

Edited December 22, 2023 by MovieMan89

[Relevation]

13 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MEAN GIRLS

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
135	108	26355	0.41%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-21

 

(0.146x) of Wonka $512k Previews

Comps AVG: $512k

 

If anyone has any comp ideas let me know

Barbie + Hunger Games + Wonka and that should be pretty good bandwidth

[AniNate]

That "l'Orange on top" line was definitely ferocious and omnipresent.

 

I think evaluations of "marketing" really do come down to just how much the material resonates more often than not. I'm not really sure what Illumination's marketing dept could have done differently in the aftermath of actually seeing it. 

 

 

Edited December 22, 2023 by AniNate

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, AniNate said:

That "l'Orange on top" line was definitely ferocious and omnipresent.

 

I think evaluations of "marketing" really do come down to just how much the material resonates more often than not. I'm not really sure what Illumination's marketing dept could have done differently in the aftermath of actually seeing it. 

 

 

?? I don’t even know what that’s a reference to lol? 
 

I’m just talking about market it more, get it out there more. Thats what they could have done differently, what they usually do. 

[Issac Newton]

4-Day predictions for this weekend's top 12 films at the domestic box office.

 

Rank	Film (Distributor)	Weekend Gross	Total Gross	% Change	Week #
1	Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (Warner Bros.)	$33.0 M	$33.0 M	NEW	1
2	Wonka (Warner Bros.)	$29.5 M	$87.0 M	-24%	2
3	Migration (Universal)	$19.0 M	$19.0 M	NEW	1
4	The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)	$18.5 M	$18.5 M	NEW	1
5	Anyone But You (Sony / Columbia)	$8.3 M	$8.3 M	NEW	1
6	Salaar: Part 1 - Ceasefire (Moksha Movies / Pathyangira Cinemas)	$8.0 M	$8.0 M	NEW	1
7	The Iron Claw (A24)	$5.6 M	$5.6 M	NEW	1
8	Poor Things (Disney / Searchlight)	$5.0 M	$7.9 M	+290%	3
9	The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes (Lionsgate)	$4.5 M	$153.9 M	-23%	6
10	The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)	$4.3 M	$31.9 M	-22%	3
11	Godzilla Minus One (Toho International)	$4.0 M	$41.7 M	-21%	4
12	Dunki (Yash Raj Films)	$3.5 M	$3.5 M	NEW	1

[M37]

35 minutes ago, rehpyc said:

Some fun piece of information - MTC 1/2/3 show counts for Xmas:

Aquaman: 4,002/2,651/3,785

Migration: 4,030/2,953/3,359

Purple: 4,564/2,921/2,854

Do you happen to have Wonka as a comparison to? 
 

Big delta between 1 & 3 for ratio of TCP (though good chunk of that discrepancy is market based)

[charlie Jatinder]

Salaar will be $6-7M. 
Dunki will be $5.5M FSSM (inc THU $6.5M)

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

Do you happen to have Wonka as a comparison to? 
 

Big delta between 1 & 3 for ratio of TCP (though good chunk of that discrepancy is market based)

1 is big in East, 3 is big in West. 

TCP is more of East thing.

[TheFlatLannister]

27 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Barbie + Hunger Games + Wonka and that should be pretty good bandwidth

Barbie is at $1.24M but that will drop fast. Hunger games starts at T-15

 

41 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Hunger Games, The Marvels

Marvels is at $334k