The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Agafin]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I did not post this yesterday

Color Purple MTC1 // As of yesterday evening

12/25 - 202301/559338 2530497.77 3952 shows

12/26 -56006/515813 713277.18 3546 shows

 

I am thinking 275K by the time shows start and probably 25m OD is in play !!!  but pace for 12/26 is about 1/4 of Christmas day sales and 12/27 is all about walkups. So this is a unique run from my perspective. 

Isn't the subject matter pretty dark? I'm surprised that it's gonna have such a big gross on a joyful holiday like christmas.

[xieh tie]

 

[Porthos]

6 hours ago, M37 said:

Problem is, with schedules already done and so many new releases (which generally can't be touched unless they totally bomb), there isn't going to much flexibility to cancel films and add additional TCP shows; they by and large would have already been put up. Don't see any way to get to 600K seats from here

 

An yes, Xmas day is among the peaks (Cinema Day might actually have higher admits now), but I cannot stress how insane it is to breach 50% let alone 60% capacity for one title across an entire MTC; only NWH and Barbenheimer have done it post-pandemic, not even the Thursdays for Strange MoM (46%), BPWF (37.8%) or Thor L&T (41%).  Frankly, there's a good deal of dead weight at the bottom of the curve that's going to have a lot of empty seats, particularly for this film which is likely to have a much more metro-heavy skew, and also with the late shows having very few sales

 

I'm not at all going to be shocked if TCP gets all the way to $20M, but really have a difficult time seeing much over $22M

 

FWIW, constraints are showing up in Sacramento even worse than it did for Barbie.  147 showtimes scheduled at the moment while Barbie at T-3 had 180 (which would eventually rise to 274 - and I see no way in hell TCP is gonna come close to that).  With so many new openers I have a hard time seeing enough showtimes for TCP, even with 9am showtimes being posted, which are filling up PDQ.

 

Did a quick-ish look and it's at about 86% of Barbie's T-3 (5682/6573) with nearly 33% of all seats sold (5682/17233) [Barbie at T-3 was at 25% seats sold].

 

Famously, Sacramento ran into a huge screen scrunch and undershot the comps quite a bit.  Blamed the lack of Megaplexes (16 or more screens) locally then and I'm gonna blame it even more here. 

 

On the other hand, I really think it's possible we're gonna see a level of sellouts and near-sellouts not seen since No Way Home locally, if with far fewer screens.  The relative demand is simply that insane and the relative supply is that constrained.  Took a look at the final percentage of seats sold for NWH and it was a gobsmacking 65% (64.92% to be precise) for the entire region at stop of tracking.  Barbie, by comparison was "only" 40% region wide (40.28%).

 

Not gonna track it on Christmas Day (for one thing, I won't be up early enough in the morning to catch the 9am'ers — for a second thing: LOL tracking an All Day Opener), but it wouldn't surprise me one iota if this reaches a NWH level of insanity locally as well.

 

*thinks*

 

If it had about 65% seats sold locally at a theoretical stop of tracking 4:30-ish pm (lol sure, why not) ala NWH, that'd be 11.2k tickets sold locally if there aren't any more screenings added.  That's a shit ton of tickets.  It's also about 93% of Barbie's final total at stop of tracking (92.75%).

 

Now I do think they might be able to squeeze in a few more screens between now and Monday.  Maybe.  But even if it reached 20k seats locally, a 65% seats sold of those 20k seats at theoretical stop of tracking would still be 1.08x Barbie.

 

That's how constrained seats are locally for TCP!  Even a NWH level of percentage of seats sold "only" just pips it past Barbie even before matinee pricing is factored in.

 

=======

 

Now, obviously, no really really *REALLY* obviously, Sacramento will be hella under-performing here.  But only because of capacity concerns. But it's also not going to be the only "mid-major" market to have similar capacity concerns, which is gonna drag the national average down from what a pure MTC 1/2/3 comp might show. 

 

Actually kinda curious to see just how many seats TCP is given at the very last minute. 

(ftr, Barbie was just a tick under 30k seats locally)

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

has the marketing/oprah explicitly been telling people to buy tickets on Christmas day? is something silly like missing 100 million from a 25 million christmas od possible? 

I don’t think so, I think a user said it’s generally 7-10x Christmas Day for openers. 

[vafrow]

On 12/22/2023 at 5:35 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Color Purple, T-4, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 3 (of 5)

Total Sales: 24

New Sales since last update: 15

Growth: 167%

Showtimes: 19

Radius 19km

 

Big jump, and a sign that there is interest, but people either aren't yet in full Xmas day planning, or didnt know it was on sale yet.

 

I also just checked Tuesday sales (Boxing Day up here, and also discount day), and sales are almost double that of Xmas Day.

 

The Color Purple, T-3, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 3 (of 5)

Total Sales: 52

New Sales since last update: 28

Growth: 117%

Showtimes: 19

Radius 19km

 

Good growth, but, not sure if it can reach heights similar to US markets.

 

Even if it doubles the next two days and big walk ups, it's only getting it to a number similar to other Thursday previews of the last month (Wonka, Aquaman, HG).

 

Sales are also heavily concentrated towards the three VIP showtimes. This is a tiny 34 seat auditorium, and its three showings make up 60% of sales. The other large auditoriums are mainly empty, with highest tickets sold is 5 tickets.

 

Regarding demographics, Canada is obviously very different than the US, but this is a pull from a pretty diverse area. 

Edited December 23, 2023 by vafrow

[JonathanMB]

5 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

has the marketing/oprah explicitly been telling people to buy tickets on Christmas day? is something silly like missing 100 million from a 25 million christmas od possible? 

 

A worst case scenario is probably an Ali-style run, another midweek Xmas opener that only had a 5.7 multiplier off its first day. But that was an R-rated Michael Mann drama that was a lot less crowd-pleasing than one would expect from a sports biopic, while Color Purple is probably going to be a lot more crowd-pleasing - and there's actually another Xmas opener this year that happens to fit my description to a tee...

[vale9001]

Let WOM works 😅. Why we should suppose where it's going because of 2nd day presales? There are clearly people are buying tickets before cause they want to see it on Christmas, the rest probably doesn't feel like they had to buy them 5 days before like it's the new star wars. 

[joaqs]

Yeah, if a sea of people watch it on day 1 and like it, word will keep spreading. Not to mention the movie is also well positioned for MLK weekend.

[crazymoviekid]

On 12/21/2023 at 12:16 PM, crazymoviekid said:

 

2 Local NJ Theaters Christmas Day T-3:

 

The Color Purple - 761 (15)
Wonka - 292 (13)
AQM 2 - 45 (10)
Ferrari - 150 (9)
Migration - 52 (12)
The Iron Claw - 38 (9)
Poor Things - 34 (8)
Boys in the Boat - 185 (9)
Anyone But You -  7 (10)

 

MORE showtimes added.  Everyone had pretty big jumps in sales.  Color Purple now bigger than ever.   Wonka, Boys in the Boat, Iron Claw, and Ferrari had very strong surges.  Migration is back in the talks.  Aquaman and Anyone But You are struggling to grow.

 

2 Local NJ Theaters Christmas Day T-1:

 

The Color Purple - 975 (15)
Wonka - 407 (13)
AQM 2 - 65 (10)
Ferrari - 212 (9)
Migration - 93 (12)
The Iron Claw - 45 (9)
Poor Things - 58 (8)
Boys in the Boat - 227 (9)
Anyone But You -  16 (10)

 

Color Purple is almost at 1,000 sales. Everything is still growing, but Aquaman and Anyone But You are the ones that are feeling left behind.

[charlie Jatinder]

16 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am thinking 275K by the time shows start and probably 25m OD is in play

That seems a bit high to me for now. Not sure how walkups will be for this and how crazy MTC1 ratio be.

[charlie Jatinder]

The Color Purple MiniTC2 T-3

OD - 6652/49659 (224 showings)

 

Comps
0.46x Barbie - $10.25M

0.41x BPWF - $11.5M

[harrisonisdead]

Quote

While Color Purple is expected to have a strong Monday with around $10M-$12M, no one is seeing a first day Christmas gross on par with Uni’s 2012 feature take of Broadway musical Les Miserables which posted $18.1M –the best start ever at the box office for a big screen take of a Broadway show.

Feel like this thread would take issue with Deadline's use of the words "no one" 

Edited December 23, 2023 by harrisonisdead

[YM!]

14 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The Color Purple MiniTC2 T-3

OD - 6652/49659 (224 showings)

 

Comps
0.46x Barbie - $10.25M

0.41x BPWF - $11.5M

An underindex at Marcus surprises me

[Cmasterclay]

Keyser predicting 25 and Charlie predicting 11 is a pretty big gap in the two trackers.

[PrinceRico]

6 minutes ago, harrisonisdead said:

Feel like this thread would take issue with Deadline's use of the words "no one" 

They are right. No one is seeing on opening on par with Les Mis. We are seeing it pass it with ease 

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

Keyser predicting 25 and Charlie predicting 11 is a pretty big gap in the two trackers.

I am not predicting 11. Those are two comps. I am saying that I don't see 25 though, in fact probably even 20M. Mid teens probably but a lot will depend on walkups.

[abracadabra1998]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I am not predicting 11. Those are two comps. I am saying that I don't see 25 though, in fact probably even 20M. Mid teens probably but a lot will depend on walkups.

I am gonna keep hammering on this point: capacity will be an issue in many a theater, which might not show in total % occupancy numbers. For example, of the three Marcus theaters in town, 1 at more diverse suburb is at over 60% capacity for Christmas, while 2 others at very White suburbs are under 5%

 

Since MTC1 is way more concentrated in urban areas, I do see it over performing quite a bit, so I am with you in thinking closer to high teens than to 25 or even 20

[keysersoze123]

I hope @rehpyc can share some data as well. its not just doing well in MTC1. MTC2 is off the charts as well and I expect the same for MTC3. Between the 3 that is 70% of the market. I wonder if @Inceptionzq can share some data for drafthouse/emagine. I expect drafthouse to be crazy while emagine may not be that great. Canada will be weak for this(DUH). but not enough to disrupt everything spectacularly. 

 

I did not predict 25m. I just said its in play. But I would be surprised if it missed 20m at this point if MTC1 will be going towards 400K and this is not Eras kind of skew. 

[PrinceRico]

The Color Purple has an 88 on RT with 110 reviews and a 7.4 avg. The top critics score is the same. The audiences screening two weeks ago was raved. I think the last thing we need to worry about is Legs and WOM. I’ll be shocked if this don’t get an A+ Cinema score

Edited December 23, 2023 by PrinceRico

[rehpyc]

Very quick on this, for what it's worth..

 

T-5

Barbie 26.5M

BP:WF 16.8M

TLM 32.3M

MI7 30.5M

 

T-4

Barbie 25.0M

BP:WF 17.0M

TLM 31.9M

MI7 28.4M

 

T-3

Barbie 23.4M

BP:WF 17.5M

TLM 30.7M

MI7 27.8M

 

If I had to guess right now, would wager on the 20M end, but capacity constraints and lack of premium formats vs. these comps is going to hinder its potential.