The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[HummingLemon496]

3 minutes ago, DAJK said:

The thing people need to keep in mind for Madame Webb is that Wednesday is VDay meaning OD will probably be strong. That being said, Thursday will drop off HARD, and if the movie isn’t any good, the weekend isn’t going to recover once WOM hits.

(ok this one didn't have bad word of mouth but still)

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, leoh said:

This matches with NY numbers.

 

Here in NY (considering only AMC theaters in NY) Madame Web first 12 hours sold more tickets than Blue Beetle, Aquaman and Morbius (considering only the first 12 hours of each in NY AMC theaters).

 

Tbh I’m really surprised, maybe I was not considering the strength that Spider-Man IP has in American pop culture. 

 

 

Plausibly slightly female skewing film for a CBM at least + Valentines Day = Room for surprises.

 

That's been my line for a long time.

 

====

 

Now the above (and my prior two posts on the subject) notwithstanding, do have to remind folks that this is going on sale 17 days out as opposed to films like Aquabro 2, which were on sale for over a month.  Shorter pre-sale window should mean at least slightly more initial sales.  Also is the matter that it won't have as long of a "u curve" where there are slow sales.  Any one of those days in the T-29 to T-18 period might be very low in one day sales, but they add up over time. 

 

Morbius is a better direct comp at 18 days of pre-sales, I would agree.

 

Still, that plus holiday buying patters is something to keep in mind with comps with Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom.  Well that and matinee pricing which has been said a few times in this thread.

Edited January 30 by Porthos

[abracadabra1998]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Plausibly slightly female skewing film for a CBM at least + Valentines Day = Room for surprises.

 

That's been my line for a long time.

 

====

 

Now the above (and my prior two posts on the subject) notwithstanding, do have to remind folks that this is going on sale 17 days out as opposed to films like Aquabro 2, which were on sale for over a month.  Shorter pre-sale window should mean at least slightly more initial sales.  Also is the matter that it won't have as long of a "u curve" where there are slow sales.  Any one of those days in the T-29 to T-18 period might be very low in one day sales, but they add up over time. 

 

Morbius is a better direct comp at 18 days of pre-sales, I would agree.

 

Still, that plus holiday buying patters is something to keep in mind with comps with Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom.  Well that and matinee pricing which has been said a few times in this thread.

BoSS is an also a female-leaning IP movie and I believe it went on sale 15 days before, might be my go to since I don’t have a Morbius comp. Obviously not a CBM but still could be useful 

[M37]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Depending on what your "over" club would have been, I would have been one of the first to join.

 

(whether you would have considered that a "kiss of death" or not, I'll leave up to you 😉)

I've been dropping hints for a while now, but this always felt to me to be a (potential) hit with the teens in a way other CBM flops didn't have going for them, and as you said "stupid fun", with audiences getting a bit starved. Plus the initial bar has been set so low, that just being OK review wise is a win

Line would have been something around a $40M opening

Spoiler

 And by opening, I was totally going to count the entire 6-day Wed Valentine's through Mon Presidents Day, but gotta make a splash with the title 😜

 

Pulling it back into tracking, do agree with @DAJK that opening on V-Day is going to skew the OD numbers. Last time we had this calendar was in 2018, but Black Panther opening Friday scared off any Wednesday openers, and the previous time was in 2007, when Music & Lyrics turned a $4.16M Wed into just a $21.4M 6-day ($13.6M 3-day or 3.28x), and Daddy's Little Girls was $4.58M/$18.8M 6-day (and $11.2M / 2.45x). But that was a pretty packed weekend, so very well could see better ratios for both MW and Marley

 

tl;dr - I'm much more interested in the Friday number than Wed, and won't be surprised if they wind up pretty close

Edited January 30 by M37

[leoh]

58 minutes ago, M37 said:

I've been dropping hints for a while now, but this always felt to me to be a (potential) hit with the teens in a way other CBM flops didn't have going for them, and as you said "stupid fun", with audiences getting a bit starved. Plus the initial bar has been set so low, that just being OK review wise is a win

Line would have been something around a $40M opening

  Reveal hidden contents

 And by opening, I was totally going to count the entire 6-day Wed Valentine's through Mon Presidents Day, but gotta make a splash with the title 😜

 

Pulling it back into tracking, do agree with @DAJK that opening on V-Day is going to skew the OD numbers. Last time we had this calendar was in 2018, but Black Panther opening Friday scared off any Wednesday openers, and the previous time was in 2007, when Music & Lyrics turned a $4.16M Wed into just a $21.4M 6-day ($13.6M 3-day or 3.28x), and Daddy's Little Girls was $4.58M/$18.8M 6-day (and $11.2M / 2.45x). But that was a pretty packed weekend, so very well could see better ratios for both MW and Marley

 

tl;dr - I'm much more interested in the Friday number than Wed, and won't be surprised if they wind up pretty close

I understand, but if I have tbh I’d laugh at you if you told me Madame Web would sell in 12 hours 30% of its first night seats in Lincoln Square IMAX. I mean I couldn’t predict this ngl.

 

Just as comparison: One Love also has a premium format in Lincoln Square on Wednesday, a screening in Dolby Cinema, which has half of the capacity of Lincoln Square IMAX, and even so One Love has sold only 10% in 7 days.

 

I mean I’m shocked ngl, I never even considered this could be possible for this movie till I look at the number of tickets bought for Madame Web screenings this afternoon. Probably I overlooked the strength that Spider-Man IP has in American pop culture.

Edited January 30 by leoh

[emoviefan]

25 minutes ago, leoh said:

I understand, but if I have tbh I’d laugh at you if you told me Madame Web would sell in 12 hours 30% of its first night seats in Lincoln Square IMAX. I mean I couldn’t predict this ngl.

 

Just as comparison: One Love also has a premium format in Lincoln Square on Wednesday, a screening in Dolby Cinema, which has half of the capacity of Lincoln Square IMAX, and even so One Love has sold only 10% in 7 days.

 

I mean I’m shocked ngl, I never even considered this could be possible for this movie till I look at the number of tickets bought for Madame Web screenings this afternoon. Probably I overlooked the strength that Spider-Man IP has in American pop culture.

Yep let's keep sending Tom Rothman the message to make shit like this. Sigh.

[abracadabra1998]

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Valentine's Day:

 

Madame Web (T-16, Day 1, 9:30 PM):

Day: T-16	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	93	75	75	17143	0.44

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		60	60	80
MTC1:		60	60	80
Marcus:		3	3	4
Alamo:		2	2	2.67
Other chains:		10	10	13.33

 

Day 1 Comps:

1.01x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $4.56 Million

1.6x Wonka: $5.59 Million

0.39x BoSS: $2.25 Million

0.38x FNAF: $3.9 Million

 

Average: $4.07 Million

 

Not bad at all for Day 1, but like others have brought up, it is Valentine's Day and not previews. We shall see where it goes from here, I think this and One Love combo could bring a decent boost to February's box office

[dallas]

Argylle

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-3

46 tickets sold (+11)

11 showtimes

 

(2.30x) of The Beekeeper - $5.52 Million

(0.280x) of Aquaman 2 - $1.26 Million

COMPS AVG - $3.39 Million

 

Not much change. Will probably fall around the $3M mark.

 

[BOfficeStats]

13 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Madame Web on sale! I’m sure there will be very calm and non-ironic analysis going on today throughout this forum and Reddit

Reddit doesn't even know that they have started yet.

[leoh]

37 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Valentine's Day:

 

Madame Web (T-16, Day 1, 9:30 PM):

Day: T-16	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	93	75	75	17143	0.44

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		60	60	80
MTC1:		60	60	80
Marcus:		3	3	4
Alamo:		2	2	2.67
Other chains:		10	10	13.33

 

Day 1 Comps:

1.01x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $4.56 Million

1.6x Wonka: $5.59 Million

0.39x BoSS: $2.25 Million

0.38x FNAF: $3.9 Million

 

Average: $4.07 Million

 

Not bad at all for Day 1, but like others have brought up, it is Valentine's Day and not previews. We shall see where it goes from here, I think this and One Love combo could bring a decent boost to February's box office

This matches NY numbers.

 

In NY (considering only NY AMC theaters first 12 hours) Madame Web is selling more than Aquaman, Morbius and Blue Bettle.

 

We have to carry on tracking it but at this point a 40+ million opening weekend (including WED and THU) is very much possible.

 

And yes, I am shocked ngl. I def overlooked the strength of Spider-Man IP in American pop culture.

Edited January 30 by leoh

[JD Asencio]

12 minutes ago, leoh said:

This matches NY numbers.

 

In NY (considering only NY AMC theaters first 12 hours) Madame Web is selling more than Aquaman, Morbius and Blue Bettle.

 

We have to carry on tracking it but at this point a 40+ million opening weekend (including WED and THU) is very much possible.

 

And yes, I am shocked ngl. I def overlooked the strength of Spider-Man IP in American pop culture.

Madame Web WW >>> The Marvels WW would be so much fun 😅👌

[fede75]

3 hours ago, Legion Again said:

I would, in general, strongly caution against this sort of reasoning.  
 

If movie A does much better than you expected it’s a sign that movie A had more interest than you thought, not that movie B will have more interest than you’d thought!

yeah, that's similar to the " if the marvels underperform a lot then madame web is obviously going to underperform a lot" that a lot had two months ago and were clearly wrong

[Flip]

Just for reference the last time two movies released on a Valentine’s Day Wednesday were Daddy’s Little Girls and Music and Lyrics back in 2007. DLG was a Tyler Perry release that got an A- cinemascore and had a 6.84x multiplier off its OD. Music and Lyrics was a Hugh Grant romcom with a B cinemascore that legged out to 12.17 from its opening day. I’d expect Madame web to fall between the two, probably closer to 10-11x opening day. Bob Marley could possibly do 14-16x, assuming it’s well-received.

[Joyous Legion]

22 minutes ago, fede75 said:

yeah, that's similar to the " if the marvels underperform a lot then madame web is obviously going to underperform a lot" that a lot had two months ago and were clearly wrong

Those are at least both female led marvel movies! It’s not crazy to think that one performance might have some useful info for the other. Web and Dune have almost nothing in common 😛 

[fede75]

9 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

Those are at least both female led marvel movies! It’s not crazy to think that one performance might have some useful info for the other. Web and Dune have almost nothing in common 😛 

it was crazy because the marvels underperform largely because of the kamala and brie hate online and the problem with the interconectivity between tv series and films from the MCU. 

[keysersoze123]

On 1/28/2024 at 9:11 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Argylle MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 15915/291908 305912.83 1422 shows // +1924 over past day.

Friday - 13470/550942 246123.84 // its sold +2320 over past day. 

 

It has started to pick up as of today. Let us see how the pace goes over final 4 days. Still thinking ~2.5m for its previews. But if its a stinker it wont get there. 

Argylle MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 18217/310062 348226.17 1534 shows  +2302

Friday - 16533/601675 300854.81 2920 shows +3063

 

Not much of an acceleration compared to yesterday. Let us see how rest of the week goes. Still think something close to 50K finish and 2.5m is possible unless its a stinker. Let us wait and see. 

[ando]

Dune Part Two

Day 4 @ Toronto Scotiabank Theatre (IMAX Showtimes only)

 

1946 total (+122 in the past 24 hrs)

 

Thu- 456

Fri- 473

Sat- 600

Sun- 417 

 

Day 4 saw even more weekend back loading for IMAX, with Sunday picking up 43% of today's presales. Quickly catching up to Thu/Fri. 

 

Combined with the nearly sold out EA showing, the theatre has surpassed $50k (CAD) in IMAX presales just for OW. 

 

Edited January 30 by ando

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-32 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	23452	24729	1277	5.16%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

156

 

Day 3 Comps EXCEEDINGLY LOL-TASTIC/"Spaghetti at the wall" Edition [DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY!!!]

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune D3	235.17		52	543		0/74	11106/11649	4.66%		2915	43.81%		11.99m
Dune D4	208.66		69	612		0/75	11219/11831	5.17%		2915	43.81%		10.64m
Batman	37.65		157	3392		0/248	28906/32298	10.50%		11757	10.86%		9.19m
TGM	55.55		390	2299		0/257	33923/36222	6.35%		11474	11.13%		10.70m
Thor 4	25.24		336	5060		0/228	26540/31600	16.01%		16962	7.53%		7.32m
BP2	31.79		294	4017		0/292	32534/36551	10.99%		16800	7.60%		8.90m
Ava 2	68.62		172	1861		0/142	19477/21338	8.72%		8986	14.21%		11.67m
Wick 4	176.14		68	725		0/84	11995/12720	5.70%		5448	23.44%		15.68m
GOTG3	54.32		194	2351		0/205	27217/29568	7.95%		10750	11.88%		9.51m
Fast X T-32	193.19		3	661		0/182	27083/27744	2.38%		4122	30.98%		14.49m
Oppy T-32	198.91		13	642		0/50	6930/7572	8.48%		10750	11.88%		20.89m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     362/8153  [4.44% sold]
Matinee:    17/2762  [0.62% | 1.33% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:        575/814  [70.64% sold] [+17 tickets]
Thr:    702/23915  [2.94% sold] [+139 tickets]
PLF:     1119/9813  [11.40% | 87.63% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Dune: Part Two's sales actually increased today.  And not by that small of an amount, either.

 

...

 

Guess all those ads on the NFL Championship games served their purpose. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-31 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	23373	24729	1356	5.48%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

79

 

T-31 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!!

	%		Sold T-31	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	93.39		43	1452		0/171	22337/23789	6.10%		2915	46.52%		16.81m
BP2	27.93		237	4855		1/294	32167/37022	13.11%		16800	8.07%		7.82m
GOTG3	71.67		1892	1892		0/205	27676/29568	6.40%		10750	12.61%		12.54m
Fast X	202.39		9	670		0/182	27068/27738	2.42%		4122	32.90%		15.18m
Oppy	207.66		11	653		0/50	7001/7654	8.53%		10750	12.61%		21.80m
AM3	67.16		2019	2019		0/231	30346/32365	6.40%		10475	12.95%		11.75m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      381/8153  [4.67% sold]
Matinee:    19/2762  [0.69% | 1.40% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:       582/814  [71.50% sold] [+7 tickets]
Thr:    774/23915  [3.24% sold] [+72 tickets]
PLF:    1186/9813  [12.09% | 87.46% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

I knew the comps would be pretty terrible when I shifted to T-x, but holy hell these are some unsuitable comps!  GOTG3 and AM3 (which I added simply for the lack of anything else) are both on their first days of sales, so they're gonna drop in a hurry.  And I'm about to jettison both the Fast X and Oppenheimer comps as their sales pace right now is so low that they're close to providing negative value, if they aren't already.

 

Anywho, doubt we'll get any casual use out of these comps for quite a while.  But I know if I didn't supply them, people would ask for them, so here they are.  Just don't, like, take them seriously.  At.  All. 🙂

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 hours ago, fede75 said:

yeah, that's similar to the " if the marvels underperform a lot then madame web is obviously going to underperform a lot" that a lot had two months ago and were clearly wrong

"Clearly" wrong? Aquaman 2 had an awful first day, having slightly more D1 presales with the benefit of a Valentine's Day opening isn't much of an accomplishment.

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-32 Thursday previews and T-29 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 145

New Sales: 26

Growth: 21.8

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 8.5

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 1/2

Early Evening: 115/9

Late Evening: 29/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 37/7

IMAX: 77/4

VIP: 29/4

4dx: 2/2

 

No update to EA shows

 

Good growth for being a few days in, especially for a Sunday evening. 

 

I didn't update the EA shows, as I may have over counted my first take yesterday, and not enough time to dissect what's happening there. I may need a more structured approach for the busier theatres. I have not had any tracks yet with a manual count and a near full IMAX theatre. It's a challenge to not lose count.

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-31 Thursday previews and T-297 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 165

New Sales: 20

Growth: 13.8

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 9.7

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 3/2

Early Evening: 129/9

Late Evening: 33/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 43/7

IMAX: 89/4

VIP: 31/4

4dx: 2/2

 

EA shows

 

313 tickets across 2 showings

 

Still nothing for comps

 

Showing good growth a few days in still. IMAX still grabbing the lions share of new sales.