The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[leoh]

23 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

That’s a ridiculous jump lol

 

Edit: hmm. There was T mobile offer but still insane.

Yeah I have just seen it, only $5 per ticket less than half of the price… how much does this can affect its expected box office?????? We’ll know it probably only at the end of the day lol

Edited February 14 by leoh

[Krissykins]

8 hours ago, filmlover said:

To be fair, there was arguably more Whitney Fatigue than Whitney Nostalgia a mere decade after her death when the biopic (which couldn't even claim to have been the first, Lifetime produced one about her in 2015) arrived. In retrospect, it's not too much of a surprise no one was there for it. 

No I still do find it a surprise, actually. 
 

It made over £10m here in the UK, so it’s less than $24m gross in the US is still surprising. An A cinemascore too. But oh well, people didn’t show up. 

[Porthos]

On 2/13/2024 at 12:56 AM, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	22714	24716	2002	8.10%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

51

 

T-17 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!!

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	54.49		156	3674		0/248	28624/32298	11.38%		11757	17.03%		13.31m
TGM	59.11		223	3387		0/261	33007/36394	9.31%		11474	17.45%		11.38m
JWD	90.42		48	2214		0/188	22929/25143	8.81%		2915	68.68%		16.28m
Thor 4	33.18		158	6034		0/228	25566/31600	19.09%		16962	11.80%		9.62m
BP2	30.45		146	6574		1/294	30450/37024	17.76%		16800	11.92%		8.53m
Ava 2	79.82		96	2508		0/142	18830/21338	11.75%		8986	22.28%		13.57m
Wick 4	206.60		93	969		0/88	12361/13330	7.27%		5448	36.75%		18.39m
AM3	45.60		99	4390		0/235	28166/32556	13.48%		10475	19.11%		7.98m
GOTG3	58.32		73	3433		0/206	26211/29644	11.58%		10750	18.62%		10.21m
Fast X	230.11		31	870		0/182	26837/27707	3.14%		4122	48.57%		17.26m
Indy 5	181.01		48	1106		0/125	18415/19521	5.67%		4767	42.00%		13.03m
Oppy	205.76		45	973		0/53	7277/8248	11.80%		10750	18.62%		21.60m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:      537/8153  [6.59% sold]
Matinee:    71/2762  [2.57% | 3.55% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:          632/814  [77.64% sold] [+4 tickets]
Thr:    1370/23902  [5.73% sold] [+47 tickets]
PLF:      1664/9813  [16.96% | 83.12% of all tickets sold]

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	22633	24727	2094	8.47%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

92

 

T-16 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!!

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune	426.48		97	491		0/74	11158/11649	4.21%		2915	71.84%		21.75m
Batman	54.93		138	3812		0/280	30966/34778	10.96%		11757	17.81%		13.41m
TGM	58.05		220	3607		0/259	32324/35931	10.04%		11474	18.25%		11.18m
JWD	90.03		112	2326		0/190	22988/25314	9.19%		2915	71.84%		16.20m
Thor 4	33.75		170	6204		0/228	25396/31600	19.63%		16962	12.35%		9.79m
BP2	31.24		130	6704		1/294	30320/37024	18.11%		16800	12.46%		8.75m
Ava 2	80.35		98	2606		0/142	18732/21338	12.21%		8986	23.30%		13.66m
Wick 4	204.69		54	1023		0/88	12307/13330	7.67%		5448	38.44%		18.22m
AM3	46.91		74	4464		0/239	28513/32977	13.54%		10475	19.99%		8.21m
GOTG3	60.21		45	3478		0/203	25617/29095	11.95%		10750	19.48%		10.54m
Fast X	231.13		36	906		0/178	26804/27710	3.27%		4122	50.80%		17.33m
Indy 5	187.63		10	1116		0/128	19125/20241	5.51%		4767	43.93%		13.51m
Oppy	205.90		44	1017		0/53	7231/8248	12.33%		10750	19.48%		21.62m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:     580/8152  [7.11% sold]
Matinee:    73/2761  [2.64% | 3.49% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:        648/814  [79.61% sold] [+16 tickets]
Thr:    1446/23913 [6.05% sold] [+76 tickets]
PLF:     1742/9813  [17.75% | 83.19% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Buoyed by a few (mini-)group sales at different theaters, but even so combined with the jump on Sunday perhaps starting to show signs of acceleration, even before the social media embargo lift.

 

(or random spike is random — pick your poison)

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-2

 

Previews

Total Sales: 442

New Sales: 101

Growth: 30%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 22.1

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 4/2

Late Afternoon: 46/4

Early Evening: 280/7

Late Evening: 112/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 189/7

IMAX: 83/6

VIP: 154/5

Regular: 16/2

 

Comps

1.897x Aquaman 2 for $8.5M

1.211x HG:BoSS for $7.0M

0.695x of The Marvels for $4.6M

Avg: $6.7M

 

Still going pretty strong here. We'll see if these early reviews slow it down or not.

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-1

 

Previews

Total Sales: 535

New Sales: 93

Growth: 21%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 26.8

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 12/2

Late Afternoon: 54/4

Early Evening: 331/7

Late Evening: 138/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 218/7

IMAX: 119/6

VIP: 175/5

Regular: 23/2

 

Comps

1.709x Aquaman 2 for $7.7M

1.271x HG:BoSS for $7.3M

0.737x of The Marvels for $4.9M

Avg: $6.6M

 

I thought it would have finished a little stronger after my check in last night. It's not too bad, but you feel the reviews kicking in a bit I think. Which probably doesn't help it's case on walk ups.

 

This still appears to be an over index locally. I'd like to think this can get to $5M opening. Because I don't think it'll hold that well.

 

Ive checked Thursday sales, and it's an 83% drop from Wednesday. 

 

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

One Love, T-2, western GTA (southern Ontario), Wednesday opener

 

Total Sales: 936

New Sales: 173

Growth: 23%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 46.8

 

Comps

0.881x of FNAF for $9.1M

2.118 of Madame Web for ($14.2M)*

2.564x HG:BoSS for $14.7M

*Using estimate based on comps

Average: $12.2M

 

Digging into the local demographics yesterday made me realize that the the large Jamaican heritage population in this area is probably helping to drive up numbers. I also think that there's a stronger Valentine's Day effect here impacting this and MW.

 

 

One Love, T-1, western GTA (southern Ontario), Wednesday opener

 

Total Sales: 1276

New Sales: 340

Growth: 38%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 63.8

 

Comps

1.059x of FNAF for $10.9M

2.385 of Madame Web for ($15.8M)*

3.031x HG:BoSS for $17.4M

*Using estimate based on comps

Average: $13.6M

 

I was hoping it would get to 40% growth, but it fell a bit short. But, it's hard to complain about it's final kick.

 

It's overtaken FNAF as a comp which was a pretty high bar and what seemed to be an overindex here.

 

It's not going to do $13.6M or anything, but I think the general consensus coming from the Canadian trackers is this appears to be doing better than expected here, and there's a chance that the US markets might be understating a bit. Especially when using comps like TCP that did poorly up here (my TCP comp ended at $224M ooenjg day, down from the billion it started from).

 

I think the success here will get this over $10M.

 

With regards to holds, tracking Thursday has an 82% drop, slightly better than MW. But, if there's positive word of mouth, plus, there's a lot more near sell outs here that can lead to spillover business, that the legs overall may not be that bad.

[dallas]

I definitely think One Love gets into the double digits. Doubt it has much staying power though.

[JustWatching]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

That’s a ridiculous jump lol

 

Edit: hmm. There was T mobile offer but still insane.

Two things. One, at least domestically they are marketing the hell out of this film. Just heard my second freakin radio spot for it this morning driving into work (on Q101 here in Chicago if anyone cares). Basically if you don’t know there’s a Bob Marley movie coming out today, you’re in a coma or dead.

 

Second, there’s just nothing else out. Your V-day date night choices are One Love or Madame Web, and the latter is at 16% on RT.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

9 minutes ago, JustWatching said:

Two things. One, at least domestically they are marketing the hell out of this film. Just heard my second freakin radio spot for it this morning driving into work (on Q101 here in Chicago if anyone cares). Basically if you don’t know there’s a Bob Marley movie coming out today, you’re in a coma or dead.

 

Second, there’s just nothing else out. Your V-day date night choices are One Love or Madame Web, and the latter is at 16% on RT.

One Love isn't exactly getting raves either. I feel like in that situation couples would be more likely to do something else, or just do a movie night at home with something good. There's no shortage of entertainment today.

[vafrow]

9 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

NEW JERSEY (2 Theaters)

 

Bob Marley: One Love T-0:

 

Theater 1: 337 Tickets
Theater 2: 215 Tickets

 

The Color Purple: $7.38M
Boys in the Boat: $7.22M
Beyoncé: $12.64M
Air: $14.70M

 

Great last day of sales. Even more encouraging, they opened up more screens for tomorrow. As long as the pace keeps up, I say $7.25M+.

 

 

Madame Web T-0:

 

Theater 1: 27 Tickets
Theater 2: 40 Tickets

 

Anyone But You: $2.21M
AatLK: $5.64M
THG:BoSaS: $2.77M
Shazam 2: $4.75M

 

Pretty weak last day. Reviews didn't help. Looking at $4.5M-$5.5M.
 

 

Is the data for the same theatres for both films? If so, that's a crazy discrepancy, where OL is about 8x the sales, but the comps are only coming out marginally ahead.

Edited February 14 by vafrow

[filmlover]

One Love is definitely looking to be a beast near me tonight. All the main 6:00-9:00 shows are essentially full. Thinking it hits at least $10M for today.

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Madame Web MTC1 VD - 38539/640134 631016.73 3284 shows +7391

 

Again the increase looks really good. Let us see how it finishes. If only it was not a turd. They could have leveraged the sex appeal of Dakota/Sydney and it would have done well. Instead we get a bland mess. That said OD BO wont be too bad. its just going to collapse post that. 

Madame Web MTC1

VD - 51789/656799 833499.29 3411 shows +13250

Friday - 16243/711152 272366.57 3628 shows

 

Very good increase for Madame Web as well. Probably targeting low 90s ticket sales at MTC1. 4.75m ish OD. 

[keysersoze123]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

One thing is this is not a preview day but full day of BO. Normally MTC1 ratios are much higher for previews than Friday BO. Reason is smaller markets/theaters dont do previews and so MTC1 does skew even more. It would be interesting to see where Marley and Webb land tomorrow. Is it closer to previews or Friday ratio. 

So how high Marley can go. I am now thinking its crossing 250K+ at MTC1 and ATP should take it above 3.5m. That would low double digits if its previews like Multi with a heavy MTC1 skew. But looking at rest of the reports and one time MTC2 data I got, its not skewing that bad. Plus wednesday full day ratios should go lower. I am now thinking 13m ish OD could happen with good walkups today. 

 

Ironically looking at how crazy final 2 days of Presales went, reminds me of another wednesday opener in Mario !!! if I dare to comp the above projections to Mario finish, Marley is looking at 15m OD. LOL. I think that is a huge LEAP. But hitting teen OD is not for sure. 

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

Buoyed by a few (mini-)group sales at different theaters, but even so combined with the jump on Sunday perhaps starting to show signs of acceleration, even before the social media embargo lift.

 

(or random spike is random — pick your poison)

May be it is already seeing Social Media boost from the premier in Paris? That said I looked at MTC1 yesterday and its been steady for a while now. So I am not seeing any boost so far. Its at 51065 for previews and 25909 for early shows. Very impressive for T-16 and it will start to accelerate later this week and then next week especially if its a rave as what is expected. 

[vafrow]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

So how high Marley can go. I am now thinking its crossing 250K+ at MTC1 and ATP should take it above 3.5m. That would low double digits if its previews like Multi with a heavy MTC1 skew. But looking at rest of the reports and one time MTC2 data I got, its not skewing that bad. Plus wednesday full day ratios should go lower. I am now thinking 13m ish OD could happen with good walkups today. 

 

Ironically looking at how crazy final 2 days of Presales went, reminds me of another wednesday opener in Mario !!! if I dare to comp the above projections to Mario finish, Marley is looking at 15m OD. LOL. I think that is a huge LEAP. But hitting teen OD is not for sure. 

 

I've been working on the assumption that my market has been an outlier. It'll be pretty funny if it ends up being fairly bang on.

[Tinalera]

3 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-1

 

Previews

Total Sales: 535

New Sales: 93

Growth: 21%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 26.8

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 12/2

Late Afternoon: 54/4

Early Evening: 331/7

Late Evening: 138/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 218/7

IMAX: 119/6

VIP: 175/5

Regular: 23/2

 

Comps

1.709x Aquaman 2 for $7.7M

1.271x HG:BoSS for $7.3M

0.737x of The Marvels for $4.9M

Avg: $6.6M

 

I thought it would have finished a little stronger after my check in last night. It's not too bad, but you feel the reviews kicking in a bit I think. Which probably doesn't help it's case on walk ups.

 

This still appears to be an over index locally. I'd like to think this can get to $5M opening. Because I don't think it'll hold that well.

 

Ive checked Thursday sales, and it's an 83% drop from Wednesday. 

 

Yea it really catches the the attention the drop from Wed to Thurs with Fridays a little bit better but not close to the Wednesday. 

[vafrow]

3 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Yea it really catches the the attention the drop from Wed to Thurs with Fridays a little bit better but not close to the Wednesday. 

 

What's even worse is that schools are off for Friday, which should be boosting sales for something like MW. 

 

Same goes for OL, but that's older skewing I'm guessing. 

[lakshya arora]

14 hours ago, leoh said:

Yeah as it stands now, Madame Web will have better first day than Aquaman and Blue Beetle.
 

MB is having a really good  boost here in NY (unironically) since the terrible critics reviews started popping up on internet. On this track, Madame Web may get a 5.5M+ (+/- 0.25) on VDay. 

Neither aquaman 2 nor blue beetle opened on a holiday plus you are comparing previews number to opening day numbers of MB thats unfair

[crazymoviekid]

3 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Is the data for the same theatres for both films? If so, that's a crazy discrepancy, where OL is about 8x the sales, but the comps are only coming out marginally ahead.

Same theaters. Bob Marley is doing mini-blockbuster level here. 

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Bob Marley: One Love T-0: 57.04% Awareness

Madame Web T-0: 48.69%

Dune: Part Two T-16: 58.79%

Cabrini T-23: 16.22%

Kung Fu Panda 4 T-23: 62.52%

Imaginary T-23: 27.4%

Love Lies Bleeding T-30: 16.56%

The Fall Guy T-79: 31.76%

IF T-93: 27%

Inside Out 2 T-121: 51.36%

[vafrow]

24 minutes ago, crazymoviekid said:

Same theaters. Bob Marley is doing mini-blockbuster level here. 

 

In that case, I'd definitely consider trying to use a proper average of your comps. Sticking with just the lower amounts might be distorting.

 

Boys in the Boat only had 2500 theatres, so, if you're taking just a straight comp against that, it's probably underestimating OL. If that was playing in 1000 less theatres, it would probably be selling even more for example.

 

TCP was a weird one as well. It's a useful comp, but one that had a lot of unique factors, that it shouldn't carry an excessive weight to it.