The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

I believe MiniTC2 has one IMAX theater (which as I check does in fact have the EA showing).  Whether or not Jat is including that one showtime, I couldn't say.  But with only one showtime in the chain, and only saying "Thursday" in his post, he's likely punting it as being too small to matter.

Yep.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 2/15/2024 at 7:26 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
566	5067	106182	4.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

71

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

2106

*45 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-14

 

(1.495x) of Oppenheimer $15.71M 

(0.952x) of Flash $9.24M 

(2.452x) of Wonka $8.58M 

(2.257x) of Aquaman 2 $10.16M 

 

Comps AVG: $10.92M

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
566	5313	106182	5.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

246

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

2147

*41 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-13

 

(1.477x) of Oppenheimer $15.50M 

(0.914x) of Flash $8.87M 

(2.426x) of Wonka $8.49M 

(2.241x) of Aquaman 2 $10.08M 

 

Comps AVG: $10.74M

[TheFlatLannister]

On 2/9/2024 at 7:49 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

KUNG FU PANDA 4

 

Thursday

 

T-27

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
468	1040	91798	1.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

193

 

COMPS

T-27

 

(0.974x) of Trolls 3 $1.27M

 

It's doing crazy good in Miami and poor in Orlando🤔

 FLORIDA 

 

KUNG FU PANDA 4

 

Thursday

 

T-20

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
475	1183	93078	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE T-27

143

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-27

7

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

252

 

COMPS

T-20

 

(0.878x) of Trolls 3 $1.14M

(1.248x) of Migration $1.87M

 

COMP AVG: $1.5M

Edited February 17 by TheFlatLannister

[emoviefan]

21 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
566	5313	106182	5.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

246

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

2147

*41 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-13

 

(1.477x) of Oppenheimer $15.50M 

(0.914x) of Flash $8.87M 

(2.426x) of Wonka $8.49M 

(2.241x) of Aquaman 2 $10.08M 

 

Comps AVG: $10.74M

So the Social media reactions did not goose sales in Florida even one bit it seems. 

Edited February 17 by emoviefan

[vafrow]

23 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

So the Social media reactions did not goose sales in Florida even one bit it seems. 

 

It's about double the usual daily growth. I wouldn't call it nothing.

 

It's hard for social media reactions to move the needle too much. Real reviews will go further.

[emoviefan]

6 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

It's about double the usual daily growth. I wouldn't call it nothing.

 

It's hard for social media reactions to move the needle too much. Real reviews will go further.

Yeah I was looking at the Average of the Comps going down slightly but do see that the total ticket sales was up a lot. Yeah actual reviews will matter more. 

[TheFlatLannister]

51 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

So the Social media reactions did not goose sales in Florida even one bit it seems. 

Good jump in Florida overall, nothing in Orlando. As I've kind of been alluding too, I think this has a bit more fanrush than expected and the GA will come out late (Final 4 days perhaps) 

 

Porthos statement explains it well:

 

"I'll be honest; wanted to see more of a bump.  Now the mid-day drop does make it difficult to do a full compare/contrast against things that had a full day (or more) of social media discussion.  But if a storm is coming (and for the record I still think it is), it hasn't quite arrived in Sacramento yet." 

Edited February 17 by TheFlatLannister

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Arthur the King T-29: 30.3%

Immaculate T-36: 22.06%

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire T-43: 37.43%

Twisters T-155: 45.84%

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice T-204: 42.8%

Joker: Folie a Deux T-232: 40.35%

 

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - To the Hashira Training T-8: 22.56% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

 

Drive-Away Dolls T-8: 16.29% Awareness

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

Ordinary Angels T-8: 27.14% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

 

Civil War T-57: 24.24% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 60% chance of 10M, 32% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 33% chance of 10M, 11% chance of 20M

[leoh]

3 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

It's about double the usual daily growth. I wouldn't call it nothing.

 

It's hard for social media reactions to move the needle too much. Real reviews will go further.

 

I might be wrong, but I’ll repeat myself: I don’t think good reviews will give Dune any huge jump in pre sales. I say this due to the balance of expectations: Dune is already expected to be a really good movie, great reviews will not surprise many people. I don’t think there are many people who is doubting Dune quality and so will be convinced to buy tickets due to excellent reviews.

 

Of course there will be a good increase the closer we are to the release date, but nothing too crazy.

 

it’s a sequel of a successful movie, and as such it tends to be front loaded. Dune is a movie that already has a big fanbase and a big reputation, and for this kind of movies front loaded factor is way more common than surprising huge walk ups.

Edited February 17 by leoh

[Goldenhour36]

2 hours ago, Eric Web said:

 

 

Drive-Away Dolls T-8: 16.29% Awareness

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

 

 

 

Is this the first time The Quorum out right said 0% for both category (Final Awareness & Low Awareness) for a film?, that is super awful to look at!

[JustLurking]

3 hours ago, emoviefan said:

Yeah I was looking at the Average of the Comps going down slightly but do see that the total ticket sales was up a lot. Yeah actual reviews will matter more. 

That's because the comps are using Orlando, not Florida, and Orlando didn't jump.

[filmlover]

Drive-Away Dolls reminds me of Suburbicon, another star-studded (down to Matt Damon's presence) comedic thriller from a notable director that arrived completely chatter-free despite all the talent involved. I'll be surprised if the box office total isn't similarly pitiful in the single digits area at this point.

[keysersoze123]

On 2/15/2024 at 7:56 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Early shows(2/25) - 27054/55706 540153.90 182 shows +743

Previews(T-14) - 54809/516459 1085794.11 2579 shows +2353

Friday - 50240/795393 994937.86 4005 shows +2251

Saturday - 51194/837042 971496.80 4220 shows +2343

 

Plus number is from yesterday. Pace up around 60% from yesterday. Let us see how a full day of sales post reactions go tomorrow. 

 

Previews(without early shows) are up around 12% from Oppenheimer at similar point. I think it can hold the pace as well what Oppenheimer was doing as well. 

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 28064/55706 559158.60 182 shows +1010

Previews(T-13) - 57916/517312 1143427.70 2484 shows +3107

Friday - 54543/796148 1075662.81 4010 shows +4303

Saturday -  55582/837530 1050059.90 4223 shows +4388

 

Its day and few hours and so the pace has to be adjusted down for sure. Still its moving along as we approach the final stretch. Next week's reviews should hopefully take it to next level. 

[TheTom]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 28064/55706 559158.60 182 shows +1010

Previews(T-13) - 57916/517312 1143427.70 2484 shows +3107

Friday - 54543/796148 1075662.81 4010 shows +4303

Saturday -  55582/837530 1050059.90 4223 shows +4388

 

Its day and few hours and so the pace has to be adjusted down for sure. Still its moving along as we approach the final stretch. Next week's reviews should hopefully take it to next level. 

how’s going the sales for Web Marley this Saturday in MTC1?

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	22519	24734	2215	8.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

65

 

T-14 Comps         REVAMPED CHARTS EDITION - USE WITH CAUTION!!!

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	54.62		259	4055		0/259	31878/35933	11.28%		11474	19.30%		10.52m
JWD	85.36		170	2595		0/191	22777/25372	10.23%		2915	75.99%		15.36m
Ava 2	79.14		104	2799		0/142	18539/21338	13.12%		8986	24.65%		13.45m
Wick 4	192.44		64	1151		0/88	12191/13342	8.63%		5448	40.66%		17.13m
TLM	145.06		87	1527		0/154	21187/22714	6.72%		6561	33.76%		14.94m
Indy 5	176.07		89	1258		0/128	18983/20241	6.22%		4767	46.47%		12.68m
Batman	54.20		164	4087		0/285	31380/35467	11.52%		11757	18.84%		13.23m
Thor 4	33.82		195	6549		0/228	25051/31600	20.72%		16962	13.06%		9.81m
BP2	31.37		230	7060		2/294	29934/37024	19.07%		16800	13.18%		8.78m
AM3	46.47		150	4767		0/238	28027/32794	14.54%		10475	21.15%		8.13m
GOTG3	61.63		47	3594		0/203	25501/29095	12.35%		10750	20.60%		10.79m
Dune	361.93		69	612		0/75	11219/11831	5.17%		2915	75.99%		18.46m
Fast X	211.56		99	1047		0/178	26663/27710	3.78%		4122	53.74%		15.87m
Oppy	195.67		48	1132		0/55	7524/8656	13.08%		10750	20.60%		20.55m
Bats Tue EA T-10	98.19		6	663		0/3	152/815	81.35%		743	87.08%		1.96m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:     608/8164  [7.45% sold]
Matinee:    82/2765  [2.97% | 3.70% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:           651/814  [79.98% sold] [+4 tickets]
Thr:    1564/23920  [6.54% sold] [+61 tickets]
PLF:       1819/9825  [18.51% | 82.12% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Decided it was past time to reorganize the charts a bit. Put them in "GA friendly"/"CBM"/"Wildly Inappropriate — Use For Final Percentages/Pace Only" groupings.  More than a bit arbitrary on some of them, I realize, but I think it's better than it was.  Also added TLM since that didn't have as strong a finish as many GA friendly films, even though it's still out-of-whack timing wise. The "GA friendly" tier still suffers under timing concerns for most of them, but still grouping now rather than later.

 

Went ahead and also took the time to make a separate IMAX ONLY comp against the one film I have a literal one-for-one comp with (the Tue showings of The Batman), even though the ATP will probably be off.  Interestingly enough, it's nearly at the final total of that Tue Night EA with only a difference of 92 tickets between the two.  Suggests to me that, locally at least, there probably won't be much of a difference between Sun Night Exclusive IMAX and Tue Night Exclusive IMAX.  And even if there is, ATP hikes might just cover that. How indicative this is of the rest of the country I don't know. What I do know is that D2 won't have the benefit of the Wed PLF showtimes, which was also estimated at 2m or so.  So keep that in mind.

 

As for the social media embargo lift?  I'll be honest; wanted to see more of a bump.  Now the mid-day drop does make it difficult to do a full compare/contrast against things that had a full day (or more) of social media discussion.  But if a storm is coming (and for the record I still think it is), it hasn't quite arrived in Sacramento yet.

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	174	22847	25187	2340	9.29%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	453
Total Seats Sold Today	125

 

T-13 Comps         REVAMPED CHARTS EDITION - STILL USE WITH CAUTION!!!

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	55.20		152	4239		0/285	31225/35464	11.95%		11757	19.90%		13.48m
Thor 4	34.34		265	6814		0/228	24786/31600	21.56%		16962	13.80%		9.96m
BP2	32.28		190	7250		2/296	29904/37154	19.51%		16800	13.93%		9.04m
AM3	47.85		123	4890		0/238	27904/32794	14.91%		10475	22.34%		8.37m
GOTG3	63.64		83	3677		0/203	25377/29054	12.66%		10750	21.77%		11.14m
TGM	54.22		261	4316		0/259	31617/35933	12.01%		11474	20.39%		10.44m
JWD	86.44		112	2707		0/191	22665/25372	10.67%		2915	80.27%		15.56m
Ava 2	79.40		148	2947		0/145	18537/21484	13.72%		8986	26.04%		13.50m
Wick 4	190.09		80	1231		0/89	12253/13484	9.13%		5448	42.95%		16.92m
Fast X	212.92		52	1099		0/178	26611/27710	3.97%		4122	56.77%		15.97m
TLM	144.09		97	1624		0/154	21095/22719	7.15%		6561	35.67%		14.84m
Indy 5	177.68		59	1317		0/128	18924/20241	6.51%		4767	49.09%		12.79m
Dune	362.23		34	646		0/75	11185/11831	5.46%		2915	80.27%		18.47m
Oppy	195.00		68	1200		0/57	7688/8888	13.50%		10750	21.77%		20.48m
Bats Tue EA T-9	100.15		0	663		0/3	152/815	81.35%		743	87.62%		2.00m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:      642/8313  [7.72% sold]
Matinee:    85/2840  [2.99% | 3.63% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:         664/814  [81.57% sold] [+13 tickets]
Thr:    1676/24373  [6.88% sold] [+112 tickets]
PLF:      1911/9825  [19.45% | 81.67% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

That is much more like it.  That is more or less what I was expecting to see last night, if somewhat less thanks to half-a-day post social media embargo lift.  Guess having a full day plus to percolate and get the word out was in fact a difference maker after all. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Wasn't even that tilted to group sales/Esquire IMAX as even without counting the TrueIMAX location's sales the region still sold 100 tickets on the nose today.  Just decent sales up and down the region.

 

Another thing to note:  Thanks to the boost from social, the Sun EA showings have now passed The Batman's IMAX EA showings at the equivalent distance from release.  Okay by *one* ticket, but still notable.

 

Anywho, see how long this bounce lasts and what it'll settle down to before the review lift in a few days.

[vafrow]

On 2/16/2024 at 6:43 AM, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-14 Thursday previews and T-10 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 417

New Sales: 29

Growth: 7.5%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 23.2

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 6/2

Early Evening: 330/9

Late Evening: 81/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 93/7

IMAX: 223/4

VIP: 93/5

4dx: 8/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.226 of Marvels for $8.1M

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 435

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 13

Growth: 3.1%

 

Growth is almost double of the last few days, so I think the social reactions had an impact. It may take a few days for it to have full impact. Although, the full reviews are likely to be the bigger trigger.

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-13 Thursday previews and T-9 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 452

New Sales: 35

Growth: 8.4%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 25.1

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 6/2

Early Evening: 354/9

Late Evening: 92/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 112/7

IMAX: 240/4

VIP: 92/5

4dx: 8/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.299 of Marvels for $8.6M

4.708x of HG: BoSS for $27.1M

10.044x Madame Web for $60.3M

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 448

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 13

Growth: 3.0%

 

Added new comps. They're not that useful at this stage, but I figure I may as well add them. They'll converge eventually to something useful.

 

Growth is a bit above yesterday's, which had a jump from the social media reactions. So, there is something happening here. It's jumped up against the Marvels comp, so its dislodged itself from that growth curve.

 

Edited February 18 by vafrow

[emoviefan]

4 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-14 Thursday previews and T-10 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 452

New Sales: 35

Growth: 8.4%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 25.1

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 6/2

Early Evening: 354/9

Late Evening: 92/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 112/7

IMAX: 240/4

VIP: 92/5

4dx: 8/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.299 of Marvels for $8.6M

4.708x of HG: BoSS for $27.1M

10.044x Madame Web for $60.3M

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 448

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 13

Growth: 3.0%

 

Added new comps. They're not that useful at this stage, but I figure I may as well add them. They'll converge eventually to something useful.

 

Growth is a bit above yesterday's, which had a jump from the social media reactions. So, there is something happening here. It's jumped up against the Marvels comp, so its dislodged itself from that growth curve.

 

LOL on that Madame Web Comp.

[leoh]

14 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

LOL on that Madame Web Comp.

I think that is the problem someone commented here before, it’s being compared a 15+ days of sales with a 2 days of sales. 

Edited February 17 by leoh

[vafrow]

4 minutes ago, leoh said:

I think that is the problem someone commented here before, you’re comparing a 15+ days of sales with a 2 days of sales

 

Yes. MW only went up at T-17, and, had a slow start, but relatively strong growth. I probably should toss it, but wanted something other than Marvels. But most tracks I've done with this sample have had short sales cycle.

[keysersoze123]

12 hours ago, TheTom said:

how’s going the sales for Web Marley this Saturday in MTC1?

Dont know. I dont track movies well post release anyway unless they are having a spectacular run. Presales are more interesting ahead of release.