The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 31424/55706 621949.46 182 shows +1231

Previews(T-10) - 63782/527826 1250924.82 2641 shows +2375

Friday - 63251/797532 1236121.05 4017 shows +3228

Saturday -  65259/839667 1219971.07 4234 shows +3128

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 32757/55706 646400.63 182 shows +1333

Previews(T-9) - 65971/541213 1291009.67 2725 shows +2189

Friday - 66209/799205 1289963.07 4029 shows +2958

Saturday -  68530/840162 1276852.66 4239 shows +3271

[charlie Jatinder]

On 2/19/2024 at 6:37 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Dune MiniTC2 T-11 Days

Thursday - 2487/41974 (145 showings)

 

Comps

1.21x Oppy - $12.8M

0.49x Avatar 2 - $8.3M

Dune MiniTC2 T-9 Days

 

Thursday - 2703/42354 (148 showings)

 

Comps

1.13x Oppy - $11.9M

0.48x Avatar 2 - $8.2M

 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 2/19/2024 at 6:40 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MiniTC2 T-18 Days

 

Previews - 108/31272 (145 showings)

 

Comps

1.64x Elemental - $3.9M

1.83x Trolls 3 - $2.4M

Kung Fu Panda 4 MiniTC2 T-16 Days

Previews - 133/31272 (145 showings)

 

Comps

1.75x Elemental - $4.2M

1.96x Trolls 3 - $2.55M

[charlie Jatinder]

On 2/19/2024 at 6:44 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Demon Slayer: whatever they calling it this time MiniTC2 T-4 Days

 

Previews - 1609/26618 (103 showings)
Friday - 1878/38582 (146 showings)

 

Comps 

(THU + FRI) 1.02x Demon Slayer: To Swordsmith Village - $4.3M 

Demon Slayer: I still don't know what they calling it MiniTC2 T-2 Days

 

Previews - 1996/26618 (103 showings)

Friday - 2379/47572 (183 showings)

 

Comps 

(THU + FRI) 0.99x Demon Slayer: To Swordsmith Village - $4.1M 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Cabrini MiniTC2 T-16 Days

Previews - 184/5763 (36 showings)

Friday - 1571/21238 (115 showings)

 

Comps

0.45x Sound of Freedom Opening Day - $5.25M + whatever they say it does pay it forward

[Porthos]

On 2/20/2024 at 2:06 AM, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	173	22514	25091	2577	10.27%

 

Total Showings Removed Today	1
Total Seats Removed Today	96
Total Seats Sold Today	77

 

T-10 Comps         REVAMPED CHARTS EDITION - STILL USE WITH CAUTION!!!

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	55.62		165	4633		0/288	30971/35604	13.01%		11757	21.92%		13.58m
Thor 4	35.00		178	7362		0/228	24235/31597	23.30%		16962	15.19%		10.15m
BP2	32.97		201	7817		2/295	29214/37031	21.11%		16800	15.34%		9.23m
AM3	48.45		142	5319		0/238	27475/32794	16.22%		10475	24.60%		8.48m
GOTG3	63.85		153	4036		0/205	25321/29357	13.75%		10750	23.97%		11.17m
TGM	51.15		190	5038		0/259	30895/35933	14.02%		11474	22.46%		9.85m
JWD	80.89		192	3186		0/191	22186/25372	12.56%		10966	23.50%		14.56m
Ava 2	74.20		162	3473		0/145	18011/21484	16.17%		8986	28.68%		12.61m
Wick 4	185.13		59	1392		0/95	12399/13791	10.09%		5448	47.30%		16.48m
Fast X	198.54		82	1298		0/178	26412/27710	4.68%		4122	62.52%		14.89m
TLM	128.53		142	2005		0/153	20609/22614	8.87%		6561	39.28%		13.24m
Indy 5	167.66		114	1537		0/134	19034/20571	7.47%		4767	54.06%		12.07m
Dune	310.48		83	830		0/75	11001/11831	7.02%		2915	88.40%		15.83m
Oppy	172.03		103	1498		0/57	7336/8834	16.96%		4621	55.77%		18.06m
Bats Tue EA T-6	103.00		2	666		0/3	149/815	81.72%		743	92.33%		2.06m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:       715/8220  [8.70% sold]
Matinee:    93/2840  [3.27% | 3.61% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:         686/814  [84.28% sold] [+0 tickets]
Thr:    1891/24277  [7.79% sold] [+77 tickets]
PLF:    2080/9825  [21.17% | 80.71% of all tickets sold]

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	172	22260	24913	2653	10.65%

 

Total Net Showings Removed Today	1
Total Net Seats Removed Today	178
Total Seats Sold Today	76

 

T-9 Comps

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	55.26		168	4801		0/297	31989/36790	13.05%		11757	22.57%		13.49m
Thor 4	34.68		288	7650		0/237	24964/32614	23.46%		16962	15.64%		10.06m
BP2	32.68		300	8117		2/301	29820/37937	21.40%		16800	15.79%		9.15m
AM3	47.58		257	5576		0/238	27218/32794	17.00%		10475	25.33%		8.33m
GOTG3	62.59		124	4239		0/207	25745/29984	14.14%		10750	24.68%		10.95m
TGM	50.97		167	5205		0/268	31810/37015	14.06%		11474	23.12%		9.82m
JWD	78.49		194	3380		0/190	21844/25224	13.40%		10966	24.19%		14.13m
Ava 2	72.47		188	3661		0/184	22468/26129	14.01%		8986	29.52%		12.32m
Wick 4	181.34		71	1463		0/109	13836/15299	9.56%		5448	48.70%		16.14m
Fast X	194.79		64	1362		0/179	26523/27885	4.88%		4122	64.36%		14.61m
TLM	124.55		125	2130		0/165	21370/23500	9.06%		6561	40.44%		12.83m
Indy 5	162.96		91	1628		0/134	18934/20571	7.91%		4767	55.65%		11.73m
Dune	294.78		70	900		0/78	11142/12042	7.47%		2915	91.01%		15.03m
Oppy	162.56		134	1632		0/65	7968/9600	17.00%		4621	57.41%		17.07m
Bats Tue EA T-5	102.22		11	677		0/3	138/815	83.07%		743	93.13%		2.04m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:       739/7918  [9.33% sold]
Matinee:    98/2840  [3.45% | 3.69% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:         692/814  [85.01% sold] [+6 tickets]
Thr:    1961/24099  [8.14% sold] [+70 tickets]
PLF:     2129/9825  [21.67% | 80.25% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Since this has come up a couple of times before, yes the daily sold total for the GOTG3 comp is in fact correct, even though it doesn't match with the previous day's total. That's because at this point in GOTG3's run I discovered that at some point in the previous few days, one of the local theaters grabbed the GOTG Marathon.  79 seats had already been sold by that point so I just folded those seats into the total sold and called it a night.

Edited February 25 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

On 2/19/2024 at 8:41 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Oppy comp will settle around 10ish perhaps 

9-9.5 may be. A2 one prob around 8.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	172	22260	24913	2653	10.65%

 

Total Net Showings Removed Today	1
Total Net Seats Removed Today	178
Total Seats Sold Today	76

 

T-9 Comps

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	55.26		168	4801		0/297	31989/36790	13.05%		11757	22.57%		13.49m
Thor 4	34.68		288	7650		0/237	24964/32614	23.46%		16962	15.64%		10.06m
BP2	32.68		300	8117		2/301	29820/37937	21.40%		16800	15.79%		9.15m
AM3	47.58		257	5576		0/238	27218/32794	17.00%		10475	25.33%		8.33m
GOTG3	62.59		124	4239		0/207	25745/29984	14.14%		10750	24.68%		10.95m
TGM	50.97		167	5205		0/268	31810/37015	14.06%		11474	23.12%		9.82m
JWD	78.49		194	3380		0/190	21844/25224	13.40%		10966	24.19%		14.13m
Ava 2	72.47		188	3661		0/184	22468/26129	14.01%		8986	29.52%		12.32m
Wick 4	181.34		71	1463		0/109	13836/15299	9.56%		5448	48.70%		16.14m
Fast X	194.79		64	1362		0/179	26523/27885	4.88%		4122	64.36%		14.61m
TLM	124.55		125	2130		0/165	21370/23500	9.06%		6561	40.44%		12.83m
Indy 5	162.96		91	1628		0/134	18934/20571	7.91%		4767	55.65%		11.73m
Dune	294.78		70	900		0/78	11142/12042	7.47%		2915	91.01%		15.03m
Oppy	162.56		134	1632		0/65	7968/9600	17.00%		4621	57.41%		17.07m
Bats Tue EA T-5	102.22		11	677		0/3	138/815	83.07%		743	92.33%		2.04m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:       739/7918  [9.33% sold]
Matinee:    98/2840  [3.45% | 3.69% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:         692/814  [85.01% sold] [+6 tickets]
Thr:    1961/24099  [8.14% sold] [+70 tickets]
PLF:     2129/9825  [21.67% | 80.25% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Since this has come up a couple of times before, yes the daily sold total for the GOTG3 comp is in fact correct, even though it doesn't match with the previous day's total. That's because at this point in GOTG3's run I discovered that at some point in the previous few days, one of the local theaters grabbed the GOTG Marathon.  79 seats had already been sold by that point so I just folded those seats into the total sold and called it a night.

Probably around 4500-4750 final.

 

If I may suggest. Drop Marvel comps. e.g. say a 4750 finish would give just $8M from them. They overindex in Sacramento and this will likely underindex.

 

The best comps to me are Ava2, Oppy and Dune 1 (with 10% inflation adj perhaps).

Edited February 21 by charlie Jatinder

[Issac Newton]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I still don't know what they calling it

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba — To The Hashira Training

 

Edited February 21 by Issac Newton

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Probably around 4500-4750 final.

 

If I may suggest. Drop Marvel comps. e.g. say a 4750 finish would give just $8M from them. They overindex in Sacramento and this will likely underindex.

 

The best comps to me are Ava2, Oppy and Dune 1 (with 10% inflation adj perhaps).

 

The reason the comps are grouped in sections now is to make it easier for folks to pick and choose the useful information therein.

 

As for dropping the Marvel comps altogether?  I suspect at least some people are using them as some sort of guideposts (whether they should or not is another point entirely) and thus they'd probably want them continued.  I don't see any harm in them staying, especially since each section is  more or less grouped by category.

 

[vafrow]

On 2/20/2024 at 5:53 AM, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-10 Thursday previews and T-6 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 509

New Sales: 20

Growth: 4.1%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 28.3

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 6/2

Early Evening: 397/9

Late Evening: 106/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 134/7

IMAX: 259/4

VIP: 107/5

4dx: 9/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.350 of Marvels for $8.9M

3.439 of HG: BoSS for $19.8M

6.284x Madame Web for $37.7M

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 503

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 8

Growth: 1.6%

 

Nothing too interesting. Although, we'll get updated showtimes tonight for Thursday night, so it will be interesting to see if more showtimes get allocated.

 

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-9 Thursday previews and T-5 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 548

New Sales: 39

Growth: 7.7%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 47

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 11.7

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Morning*: 2/3

Late Afternoon: 6/11

Early Evening: 420/21

Late Evening: 120/12

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 141/8

IMAX: 282/4

VIP: 112/12

Regular: 0/21

4dx: 13/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.391 of Marvels for $9.2M

3.061 of HG: BoSS for $17.8M

 

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 527

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 24

Growth: 4.8%

 

So, growth is okay, but big story is the screen allocations.

 

This has gotten one of the biggest jumps at this stage that I've seen. Maybe the chain is seeing enough interest, or, most likely, they know there's not enough else out demanding these screens. Although, with the discussion of how well that the first Dune did in Canada, maybe this was always planned.

 

Given that sales have been concentrated towards the IMAX screenings, I'll be curious if these regular showings attract interest or not.

 

The other very weird thing is one location that has three very early showtimes (around 7:00 am). It's likely a mistake, but, it's not a matter of flipping the am and pm signs, as there's already evening shows booked for those screens.

 

I took out the Madame Web comp. It's such a different growth curve that it wasn't yielding anything. I may revisit what comps I'm using later this week if I have a chance.

[vafrow]

On 2/20/2024 at 6:10 AM, vafrow said:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-17 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 28

New Sales: 3

Growth: 12%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.0

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 1/2

Late Afternoon: 3/2

Early Evening: 18/5

Late Evening: 6/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 19/8
3D Regular: 6/5
Dolby: 3/1

 

Comps

3.111x Wonka for $10.9M

 

Again, not much to update.

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-16 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 34

New Sales: 6

Growth: 21%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.4

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 1/2

Late Afternoon: 5/2

Early Evening: 22/5

Late Evening: 6/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 25/8
3D Regular: 6/5
Dolby: 3/1

 

Comps

3.091x Wonka for $10.8M

 

Not much to report. Again, no really good comps. Wonka only jumped up in the final week.

[M37]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Probably around 4500-4750 final.

 

If I may suggest. Drop Marvel comps. e.g. say a 4750 finish would give just $8M from them. They overindex in Sacramento and this will likely underindex.

 

The best comps to me are Ava2, Oppy and Dune 1 (with 10% inflation adj perhaps).

Not sure what process/method you're using here, but a 4750 finish from current sales for this market would be a lower growth rate than everything except for the big MCU titles (Strange MoM, AMWQ). I haven't delved too deep into the numbers/growth patterns, but would think Thursday preview alone will probably reach that mark, so 5500+ total, maybe even 6K+

[el sid]

A bit late, sorry...

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba - To the Hashira Training counted on Monday for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 157 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 67 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 50 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 32 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 52 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 184 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 222 (5 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 764.

Comps (pretty vague at the moment; all films counted for Thursday): The Boy and the Heron (5.45M OD including previews, 13M OW) had 2 days later, on Wednesday of the release week, 408 sold tickets.
Godzilla Minus One (1M Thursday only; 2.1M Wednesday + Thursday) had 1 day later, on Tuesday of the release week, 277 sold tickets.
And Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero (4.3M from previews) had on the same day, Monday of the release week, 1.074 sold tickets = 3.1M from previews for Demon Slayer - To the Hashira Training.
 

It's too bad that I didn't count other Demon Slayer movies back then but so far the presales of the new Demon Slayer movie look good in my theaters.

[iEnri]

Charlie said the sales for Dune Part 2 EA were bad back in the day, even though it was extremely strong, so I am gonna say his predictions for Dune are bad ngl.

[misterpepp]

12 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

No Imaginary tix on sale today after all, gonna keep an eye on those. Showtimes are up but still saying "coming soon"

You posted that about an hour too soon! Was a late night drop.

[MrPink]

 

Too lazy to count/400

 

Comps:

 

Dune Reissue: Over 9 billion

Oppenheimer: Over 1 billion

Reminiscence: 100 billion

[ViewerAnon]

On 2/8/2024 at 2:44 PM, ViewerAnon said:

 

I think this is the biggest factor. TOP GUN: MAVERICK was a phenomenon and a ton of people saw it who hadn't seen or didn't remember TOP GUN. DUNE: PART TWO just doesn't feel - and hey, I could always be wrong, check back in a month - like a movie that's going to bring in people who didn't see or didn't like the first. Audiences know at this point whether DUNE is or isn't for them, so the movie's depending on audience growth from streamers who now pay for tickets and people who came to the first in the interim between movies.

 

How big is that audience? We'll see. Just based on personal feeling, an opening that's 75% higher due to sequel rush and a total around 50% higher due to those newly accounted ticket buyers sounds about right to me.

 

Feeling very wrong now because I hated the first DUNE - I found it so cold that I just couldn't care about anyone or anything that happened in it - and these reactions are great enough that I'm definitely checking out PART TWO. The number of people who were a little more mixed on the first but are over the moon for the sequel makes me very happy.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

4 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

 

Feeling very wrong now because I hated the first DUNE - I found it so cold that I just couldn't care about anyone or anything that happened in it - and these reactions are great enough that I'm definitely checking out PART TWO. The number of people who were a little more mixed on the first but are over the moon for the sequel makes me very happy.

But you still saw the first one, and you're on a box office forum talking movies. I didn't love the first Dune either, but I'm also still going to see Part 2. But also, I'm on a box office forum talking about movies.

 

General Audiences? I don't hear much buzz about this film in the same way I heard buzz about Barbie or even Oppenheimer. This film will do much better than the first, but I don't think it's going to be the surprise hit of the year like some are predicting/hoping.

[ViewerAnon]

3 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

But you still saw the first one, and you're on a box office forum talking movies. I didn't love the first Dune either, but I'm also still going to see Part 2. But also, I'm on a box office forum talking about movies.

 

General Audiences? I don't hear much buzz about this film in the same way I heard buzz about Barbie or even Oppenheimer. This film will do much better than the first, but I don't think it's going to be the surprise hit of the year like some are predicting/hoping.

 

I still don't think it's gonna pull a DARK KNIGHT and make 2.5x its predecessor's gross but a 97% on Rotten Tomatoes with an 8.7/10 average for a big spectacle movie is going to convince a fair few people to give it a chance. 

Edited February 21 by ViewerAnon