The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

13 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	172	499	4062	26909	15.1

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		3401	368	83.73
MTC1:		1854	120	45.64
Marcus:		473	95	11.64
Alamo:		431	22	10.61
Other chains:		1304	262	32.1

 

Comps (Thursday only):

1.05x Oppy: $11.05 Million

2.25x The Marvels: $14.87 Million

1.6x MI7 (w/ EA): $14.38 Million

0.66x Barbie (THU): $14 Million

 

Average: $13.58 Million

 

Dropped against all comps, but honestly the numbers in non-MTC1 chains were not bad, the MTC1 update was just terrible. A shit ton of new showings so I am interested to see tomorrow if these non-PLF screening numbers finally start rising

Your Oppy comp is probably the one to pay the closest attention too

[abracadabra1998]

5 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Your Oppy comp is probably the one to pay the closest attention too

For sure I agree, and maybe I should make note of it on my post or something. When making my own prediction it’s surely the como I will mostly be looking at 
 

I just don’t want to just have one comp, to further contextualize the numbers, and having the other comps shows the strength of this film in the urban cinephile market (which I guess we already know from the Alamo and MTC1 updates). Still feels weird having just one comp  

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Your Oppy comp is probably the one to pay the closest attention too

I would go on to say, ignore everything else and just Oppy comp is what really matters.

 

For those who have Dune 1, that's probably even better.

Edited February 28 by charlie Jatinder

[rehpyc]

Oppy and Avatar (even w/ 3D lift) are good comps for both pace (except yesterday's WOM boost) and ATP. Pace is very similar to Dune 1 as well, but would just need to adjust the ATP up (would suggest 1.75-1.80).

 

Next update tomorrow with T-3 & 2 for me.

Edited February 28 by rehpyc
Added dollar to ATP adjustment

[leoh]

40 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Last I heard for GB2 was Feb 26th, which is gone. G*K on March 5th.

 

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire pre sales start this Thursday morning.

[leoh]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

When are presales for Ghostbusters and Godzilla starting? its interesting that both these movies are going for shorter presales cycle.

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire pre sales start this Thursday morning.

 

[Porthos]

55 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

For those who have Dune 1, that's probably even better.

 

Only problem with Dune comp is the not insignificant ATP hike since then.

 

But, yes, my "anchor" comps will be some sort of mix of Dune, Ava 2, and Oppenheimer.

[crazymoviekid]

23 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Dune Part II:

 

NJ-Based Thursday Predictions:

 

Theater 1: 23 Tickets

Theater 2: 43 Tickets

 

HG:BoSaS: $5.93M

KotFM: $5.54M

Oppenheimer: $2.60M

JW4: $5.93M

A:TWoW: $5.91M

 

Look at that convergence!!! While much lower than all the other trackers, we're looking at a consistent $5.5M-$6M here😬

Dune Part II:

 

NJ-Based Thursday Predictions:

 

Theater 1: 46 Tickets
Theater 2: 50 Tickets

 

HG:BoSaS: $6.99M
KotFM: $5.67M
Oppenheimer: $2.98M
JW4: $6.62M
A:TWoW: $7.49M

 

Good news. Comps are going up. Right now looking between $6.5M-$7.5M

 

NJ-Based Friday Predictions:

 

Theater 1: 62 Tickets

Theater 2: 110 Tickets

 

HG:BoSaS: $14.95M

KotFM: $18.28M

Oppenheimer: $7.41M

JW4: $22.49M

A:TWoW: $19.33M

 

Pretty good start. Definitely less of a defined range. I'll say $17M-$19M right now

[charlie Jatinder]

13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Only problem with Dune comp is the not insignificant ATP hike since then.

 

But, yes, my "anchor" comps will be some sort of mix of Dune, Ava 2, and Oppenheimer.

MTC 1 ATP is around 5% up from Dune 1. Can just take 5-10% higher ATP, its no big deal I feel.

[misterpepp]

On 2/23/2024 at 11:27 PM, misterpepp said:

Love Lies Bleeding tix on sale March 1.

 

At least two major chains put these tickets up early, for whatever reason. The others should theoretically have them up on the 1st.

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 99792/633512 1894981.98 3419 shows +13388 

Friday - 116242/968402 2176469.22 5141 shows +18213

Saturday - 121411/994658 2174075.71 5272 shows +18570

 

While the increase seem outrageous, its under 40% from Thu+Sunday numbers from yesterday. But as @M37 said 1 day does not make a trend and so let us see how tomorrow goes. But I stick to my prediction made earlier today/ 

Dune 2 MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 111558/692847 2099044.18 3883 shows +11766

Friday - 134746/1146427 2490641.68 6436 shows +18504
Saturday - 142386/1178885 2518308.16 6614 shows +20975

 

Big jump in show count and definitely the presales yesterday benefited from Sunday shows WOM. Thursday sales dropped 12% from yesterday which is meh. Let us see how next 2 day goes. 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 111558/692847 2099044.18 3883 shows +11766

Friday - 134746/1146427 2490641.68 6436 shows +18504
Saturday - 142386/1178885 2518308.16 6614 shows +20975

 

Big jump in show count and definitely the presales yesterday benefited from Sunday shows WOM. Thursday sales dropped 12% from yesterday which is meh. Let us see how next 2 day goes. 

So it was indeed an anomaly. Good to see that. Still a pretty great opening but better to have it follow the trend.

[dallas]

Dune: Part Two

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-2

Tickets Sold: 320 (+35)

Growth: 12%

% PLF: 36%

5 theaters/38 showtimes

 

Comps:

(1.649x) of Aquaman 2 - $7.42 Million

(1.481x) of Madame Web - $8.96 Million

(6.154x) of Argylle - $10.46 Million

COMPS AVG - $8.95 Million

 

Falling against most comps. Pretty rough but I'll give it the benefit of the doubt that it's under indexing in my area, which is very much a possibility. Let's hope tomorrow it sees a decent enough increase. 

[ando]

$80M?

[charlie Jatinder]

23 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Dune 2 MiniTC2 T-3 Days

 

Thursday - 4573/56913 (222 showings)

 

Comps

0.99x Oppy - $10.4M

0.50x Avatar 2 - $8.5M

 

Oppy comp stopped bleeding with pace reaching quite similar after being around 75% last week. Even Avatar 2 hit 65% mark after being in 30s for some time.

Dune 2 MiniTC2 T-2 Days

Thursday - 5282/56989 (223 showings)

 

Comps

0.97x Oppy - $10.2M

0.51x Avatar 2 - $8.7M 

 

Oppy comp started dropping again though daily pace is up from last week when it looked like will drop to $9-9.5M type final. It still may but Oppy had very low sales on final day which this should be able to meet.

 

In limited sample of best locs, tix sold are 74% of Dune 1 final number. The only IMAX I have has outsold Dune 1 due to 1 extra IMAX show. In comparison MTC 1 is 17% ahead of Dune 1 final. Either MTC 1 is way overindexing due to that 1 extra IMAX show or I am underindexing.

[leoh]

50 minutes ago, ando said:

$80M?

80M is just best case scenario.

 

According to today’s Deadline report, WB is projecting Dune to make 65M+, yet theaters think it can get closer to 80M OW.

 

It’ll probably ended up at 70s just like @Shawn Robbins projected initially.

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	227	25372	29386	4014	13.66%

 

Total Showings Added Today	41
Total Seats Added Today	2835
Total Seats Sold Today	446

 

T-3 Comps

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	59.30		748	6769		0/324	31752/38521	17.57%		11757	34.14%		14.48m
Thor 4	39.71		550	10109		0/251	23592/33701	30.00%		16962	23.66%		11.52m
BP2	36.33		914	11048		2/355	30945/41993	26.31%		16800	23.89%		10.17m
AM3	56.63		474	7088		0/269	28018/35106	20.19%		10475	38.32%		9.91m
GOTG3	63.65		587	6306		0/273	29558/35864	17.58%		10750	37.34%		11.14m
Dune	266.36		173	1507		0/92	11672/13179	11.43%		2915	137.70%		13.58m
TGM	51.77		624	7754		1/324	33685/41439	18.71%		11474	34.98%		9.97m
JWD	66.20		795	6063		0/281	26773/32836	18.46%		10966	36.60%		11.92m
Ava 2	72.36		453	5547		0/277	27377/32924	16.85%		8986	44.67%		12.30m
Wick 4	151.64		342	2647		0/152	16697/19344	13.68%		5448	73.68%		13.50m
Fast X	195.23		262	2056		0/228	30813/32869	6.26%		4122	97.38%		14.64m
TLM	113.49		482	3537		0/201	24221/27758	12.74%		6561	61.18%		11.69m
Indy 5	158.97		258	2525		0/158	21009/23534	10.73%		4767	84.20%		11.45m
Oppy	142.80		351	2811		0/78	7745/10556	26.63%		4621	86.86%		14.99m
Bats Tue EA	106.19		——	743		0/3	72/815	91.17%		743	106.19%		2.12m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:           1053/8566  [12.29% sold]
Matinee:          133/3147  [4.23% | 3.31% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:               789/814  [96.93% sold] [FINAL]
Thr:         3225/28572 [11.29% sold] [+446 tickets]
PLF:         2915/10865 [26.83% | 72.62% of all tickets sold]

Thr PLF:   2126/10051 [21.15% sold | 65.92% of Thr Tickets sold]

 

=====

 

No time for deep analysis, but I will note that the Thr PLF percentage dropped a hefty amount, as nearly 70% of the tickets bought today weren't for some sort of PLF/DBOX.  Still a honking huge percentage of PLFs in total, but might have some early signs that the GA is in fact interested in shelling out for regular seats.

 

(don't get me wrong, still a yuuuuge PLF percentage.  But it's no longer insanely huge ‚ which really should be expected to some degree)

((no time for other thoughts, maybe tomorrow, maybe not))

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	237	25835	30268	4433	14.65%

 

Total Showings Added Today	10
Total Seats Added Today	882
Total Seats Sold Today	419

 

T-2 Comps

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	55.99		1149	7918		0/326	30853/38771	20.42%		11757	37.71%		13.67m
Thor 4	39.33		1161	11270		0/311	28171/39441	28.57%		16962	26.13%		11.41m
BP2	37.17		879	11927		2/375	31211/43138	27.65%		16800	26.39%		10.41m
AM3	57.76		587	7675		0/289	28754/36429	21.07%		10475	42.32%		10.11m
GOTG3	61.66		883	7189		0/315	31900/39089	18.39%		10750	41.24%		10.79m
Dune	254.48		235	1742		0/109	13069/14811	11.76%		2915	152.08%		12.98m
TGM	50.89		957	8711		2/344	34293/43004	20.26%		11474	38.64%		9.80m
JWD	64.63		796	6859		0/288	26655/33514	20.47%		10966	40.42%		11.63m
Ava 2	70.70		723	6270		0/296	27849/34119	18.38%		8986	49.33%		12.02m
Wick 4	138.57		552	3199		0/166	17433/20632	15.51%		5448	81.37%		12.33m
Fast X	186.03		327	2383		0/235	30517/32900	7.24%		4122	107.54%		13.95m
TLM	111.61		435	3972		0/221	24918/28890	13.75%		6561	67.57%		11.50m
Indy 5	153.28		367	2892		0/169	21180/24072	12.01%		4767	92.99%		11.04m
Oppy	142.40		302	3113		0/80	7569/10682	29.14%		4621	95.93%		14.95m
Bats Tue EA	106.19		——	743		0/3	72/815	91.17%		743	106.19%		2.12m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:      1158/9448  [12.26% sold]
Matinee:    157/3433  [4.57% | 3.54% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:                 789/814  [96.93% sold] [FINAL]
Thr:          3644/29454  [12.37% sold] [+419 tickets]
PLF:           3119/10865  [28.71% | 70.36% of all tickets sold]
Thr PLF:    2330/10051  [23.18% sold | 63.94% of Thr tickets sold]

 

======

 

Seeing the same thing everyone else was/is seeing in that yesterday was akin to a mini-review bounce.

 

Still, comps weren't really hurt all that much.  In fact, some of the CBMs still rose (though not Batsy as that is seeing a surge thanks to folks buying Wed EA showing tickets).

 

All in all though, "meh" covers it pretty well.  Nothing else to add that hasn't been said by others (including seeing what happens on Wed sales).

[charlie Jatinder]

On 2/27/2024 at 1:17 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MiniTC2 T-10 Days

 

Previews - 208/31414 (147 showings

 

Comps

1.90x Elemental - $4.5M

2.31x Trolls 3 - $3M

0.30x Minions 2 - $3.2M

Kung Fu Panda 4 MiniTC2 T-9 Days

 

Previews - 238/33625 (157 showings)

 

Comps

1.83x Elemental - $4.4M

2.34x Trolls 3 - $3M

0.32x Minions 2 - $3.5M

0.76x Haunted Mansion - $2.4M

Edited February 28 by charlie Jatinder

[JustLurking]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MiniTC2 T-9 Days

 

Previews - 208/31414 (147 showings

 

Comps

1.83x Elemental - $4.4M

2.34x Trolls 3 - $3M

0.32x Minions 2 - $3.5M

0.76x Haunted Mansion - $2.4M

Sold 0 tickets and still increased on 2 comps...powerful

[von Kenni]

1 hour ago, ando said:

$80M?

 

What I see here from the trackers it's still likely to go over $80m.

 

M37's synthesis points to $10.5m Thu previews and Charlie just threw around $10.2m. If I understood right there are some ATP differences that could add to those numbers 5-10%. Also Keyserzose123's MTC numbers are still on a way to hit those $10m numbers at least.

 

Dune Part 1 did $5.1m previews and $41m OW with 8.04 IM. With that IM this would do $82m+2=$84m OW with $10.2m previews.

 

Even though Part 2 presales for the weekend has been good too some here are expecting lower IM for Part Two but still we have pretty easy ways to get to $80m+.

 

9.7x8.04+2=80

10×7.8+2=80

10×8+2=82

 

10.4×7.5+2=80

10.5×8.04+2=86.4

 

To sum it up, with the preview estimates by trackers here the $80m+ looks still more probable than under it. If I'd had to bet, I'd say $84m OW with the data points so far.