The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[HummingLemon496]

2 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

That was for 2023 release Dune

Here is 2024 release Dune

 

My prediction a few hours ago would be 11*6.73  

Geomean was 9.8*6.7=65.66

[WorkingonaName]

21 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

 

A crises of faith.

[emoviefan]

I mean I was one of the ones saying that it would  not break out big and anything over 50 million OW and 150 DM would be just fine. But it seemed like it would break out maybe and now to see it completely deflate.  Is it this movie or is it a sign for the current marketplace in general and it won't change anytime soon. 

[Joyous Legion]

I mean in general a performance is always a bit of movie specifics+background market content, right. The bad news here is that even if you think the background market context is reasonably healthy there are very few movies this years with the specifics to do serious biz

[HummingLemon496]

10 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

A crises of faith.

 

we still have the geomean left. . .

Edited February 29 by HummingLemon496

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

I mean in general a performance is always a bit of movie specifics+background market content, right. The bad news here is that even if you think the background market context is reasonably healthy there are very few movies this years with the specifics to do serious biz

I think there is just hope that people want to go to the movies but in this post covid world they will only go when they really want to see something. The days of people going to the movies just to go the movies is long gone and never coming back it seems. 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 2/28/2024 at 12:31 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Dune 2 MiniTC2 T-2 Days

Thursday - 5282/56989 (223 showings)

 

Comps

0.97x Oppy - $10.2M

0.51x Avatar 2 - $8.7M 

 

Oppy comp started dropping again though daily pace is up from last week when it looked like will drop to $9-9.5M type final. It still may but Oppy had very low sales on final day which this should be able to meet.

 

In limited sample of best locs, tix sold are 74% of Dune 1 final number. The only IMAX I have has outsold Dune 1 due to 1 extra IMAX show. In comparison MTC 1 is 17% ahead of Dune 1 final. Either MTC 1 is way overindexing due to that 1 extra IMAX show or I am underindexing.

Dune 2 MiniTC2 T-1 Day

 

Thursday - 6288/57500 (228 showings)

 

Comps

0.90x Oppy - $9.4M

0.50x Avatar 2 - $8.5M

 

Avatar 2 behaved kind of normally here given it had general audience appeal while Oppy having less GA appeal underindexed, so that is a closer comp. 

 

Pace is meh. Final Oppy comp may drop to $9M even though Oppy had very low walkups itself due to Capacity constraints

 

Friday is ~81% of Oppy and ~52% of Avatar 2. That comps around $18.2M and $18.7M. 

Edited February 29 by charlie Jatinder

[lorddemaxus]

23 minutes ago, leoh said:

One of big problems for dune box office is the terrible reputation it has among GA. The first movie is constantly mocked by regular people as a movie you put to go sleep. Yet I was told this Dune sequel   has WAY MORE action than the first movie, but still the damage is already made by the stereotype the first movie has among GA.

How do you continue outdoing yourself with your ignorance? Like what you say here about the first movie's reception is provably untrue. It's pretty obvious you have no clue what you are talking about and I don't even see you learning from what more experienced users say. Sorry but I had to say this before I block you.

[charlie Jatinder]

23 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MiniTC2 T-9 Days

 

Previews - 238/33625 (157 showings)

 

Comps

1.83x Elemental - $4.4M

2.34x Trolls 3 - $3M

0.32x Minions 2 - $3.5M

0.76x Haunted Mansion - $2.4M

Kung Fu Panda 4 MiniTC2 T-8 Days

 

Previews - 274/35594 (167 showings)

 

Comps

1.77x Elemental - $4.25M

2.11x Trolls 3 - $2.75M

0.33x Minions 2 - $3.5M

0.78x Haunted Mansion - $2.4M

[Maaatt]

1 hour ago, leoh said:

yeah I know what you mean, you don’t know what I had to read here when said it’d not do 100M OW by any means (some even called out @Shawn Robbins cuz he was putting Dune celling at 75M!!!). Then when it came clear 100M was not possible, some started saying “at least Oppenheimer box office (over 80M)”… and when Warner Bros said to Variety they were projecting 65M+ , this was just “low ball”… so yeah sometimes people just see what they wanna see.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Since it appears to be me you are accusing of “just wanting to see what they wanna see” i guess ill respond..

 

if by “seeing what i want to see” means reading the actual articles you link to where the reporters in both instances go out of the way to tell the reader the studio projection is being “conservative” then yeah i guess me and Variety and Deadline and everyone who reads the trades daily and sees this practice done routinely is “seeing what we wanna see.” Theres a reason studios do this, I’m not making this up, theres a reason the reporters go to exhibitors, other professional tracking services and rival distributors to get a more accurate picture of what they are seeing. Im not breaking new ground here explaining this. This is studio PR  by the books. All i was attempting to do was be helpful and say you should take a studio projection that they are giving to the media with a huge grain of salt because you seemed to focus so much on this WB number.. and you don’t have to take my word for it cause the reporters all but tell you too when they point out the studios stated projection does not align with what the rest of the industry is seeing.

 

I was never trying to shade how you or anyone is seeing this particular movies weekend box office play out, merely wanting to give a helpful hint that a studios publicly given projection is not worth the paper its printed on because they have a vested interest to try to shade reporters expectations (hell, the discourse tonight on here shows you exactly why a studio does this). Thats it.

Edited February 29 by Maaatt

[Porthos]

On 2/27/2024 at 11:53 PM, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	237	25835	30268	4433	14.65%

 

Total Showings Added Today	10
Total Seats Added Today	882
Total Seats Sold Today	419

 

T-2 Comps

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	55.99		1149	7918		0/326	30853/38771	20.42%		11757	37.71%		13.67m
Thor 4	39.33		1161	11270		0/311	28171/39441	28.57%		16962	26.13%		11.41m
BP2	37.17		879	11927		2/375	31211/43138	27.65%		16800	26.39%		10.41m
AM3	57.76		587	7675		0/289	28754/36429	21.07%		10475	42.32%		10.11m
GOTG3	61.66		883	7189		0/315	31900/39089	18.39%		10750	41.24%		10.79m
Dune	254.48		235	1742		0/109	13069/14811	11.76%		2915	152.08%		12.98m
TGM	50.89		957	8711		2/344	34293/43004	20.26%		11474	38.64%		9.80m
JWD	64.63		796	6859		0/288	26655/33514	20.47%		10966	40.42%		11.63m
Ava 2	70.70		723	6270		0/296	27849/34119	18.38%		8986	49.33%		12.02m
Wick 4	138.57		552	3199		0/166	17433/20632	15.51%		5448	81.37%		12.33m
Fast X	186.03		327	2383		0/235	30517/32900	7.24%		4122	107.54%		13.95m
TLM	111.61		435	3972		0/221	24918/28890	13.75%		6561	67.57%		11.50m
Indy 5	153.28		367	2892		0/169	21180/24072	12.01%		4767	92.99%		11.04m
Oppy	142.40		302	3113		0/80	7569/10682	29.14%		4621	95.93%		14.95m
Bats Tue EA	106.19		——	743		0/3	72/815	91.17%		743	106.19%		2.12m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:      1158/9448  [12.26% sold]
Matinee:    157/3433  [4.57% | 3.54% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:                 789/814  [96.93% sold] [FINAL]
Thr:          3644/29454  [12.37% sold] [+419 tickets]
PLF:           3119/10865  [28.71% | 70.36% of all tickets sold]
Thr PLF:    2330/10051  [23.18% sold | 63.94% of Thr tickets sold]

 

======

 

Seeing the same thing everyone else was/is seeing in that yesterday was akin to a mini-review bounce.

 

Still, comps weren't really hurt all that much.  In fact, some of the CBMs still rose (though not Batsy as that is seeing a surge thanks to folks buying Wed EA showing tickets).

 

All in all though, "meh" covers it pretty well.  Nothing else to add that hasn't been said by others (including seeing what happens on Wed sales).

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	242	25728	30738	5010	16.30%

 

Total Showings Added Today	5
Total Seats Added Today	470
Total Seats Sold Today	577

 

T-1 "Anchor" Comps

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune	237.78		365	2107		0/109	12686/14793	14.24%		2915	171.87%		12.13m
Ava 2	69.19		971	7241		0/309	27735/34976	20.70%		8986	55.75%		11.76m
Oppy	135.15		594	3707		1/80	7152/10859	34.14%		4621	108.42%		14.19m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-1 Mostly Pace Purposes Comps

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	52.52		1621	9539		1/327	29315/38854	24.55%		11757	42.61%		12.82m
Thor 4	37.07		2246	13516		0/312	25975/39491	34.23%		16962	29.54%		10.75m
BP2	36.78		1695	13622		2/375	29516/43138	31.58%		16800	29.82%		10.30m
AM3	57.89		979	8654		0/305	28519/37173	23.28%		10475	47.83%		10.13m
GOTG3	59.91		1174	8363		0/343	33312/41675	20.07%		10750	46.60%		10.48m
TGM	51.88		945	9656		2/345	33356/43012	22.45%		11474	43.66%		9.99m
JWD	59.51		1560	8419		0/290	25319/33738	24.95%		10966	45.69%		10.71m
Wick 4	127.97		716	3915		0/173	17327/21242	18.43%		5448	91.96%		11.39m
Fast X	171.11		545	2928		0/243	30319/33247	8.81%		4122	121.54%		12.83m
TLM	100.72		1002	4974		0/225	24182/29156	17.06%		6561	76.36%		10.37m
Indy 5	142.94		613	3505		0/184	21339/24844	14.11%		4767	105.10%		10.29m
Oppy	135.15		594	3707		1/80	7152/10859	34.14%		4621	108.42%		14.19m
Bats Tue EA	106.19		——	743		0/3	72/815	91.17%		743	106.19%		2.12m

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:       1265/9860  [12.83% sold]
Matinee:      193/3555  [5.43% | 3.85% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:               789/814  [96.93% sold] [FINAL]
Thr:          4221/29924  [14.11% sold] [+577 tickets]
PLF:          3355/10865  [30.88% | 66.97% of all tickets sold]
Thr PLF:    2566/10051  [25.53% sold | 60.79% of Thr tickets sold]

 

======

 

Yeaaaah, honestly want to see a bit more.  Second day in a row that the pace against Dune is dropping (T-2: 1.78x |  T-1: 1.58x).

 

Doing some checks against the final totals of Avatar: The Way of Water and Oppenheimer need around 6200-6250 total tickets sold for 10m Thursday (presuming a 2m Sun), so about 1,200 to 1,250 tomorrow by end of tracking.  For comparison, Dune sold 808 tickets on its T-0 (later stop time for tracking, but also day and date considerations), so D2 have to do about 1.5x T-0 Dune to have a fighting chance. 

 

A check against Dune proper tells me that 6200-6250 would only spit out around 11m or so (including EA).  However if I use the 2021 to 2023 ATP adjustment I've been using for films like GBA  (1.13047x), 6250 total tickets sold spits out 12.36m (again, including EA), or about 10.3(-ish)m for Thur.

 

Sooooo... Yeah.  6200=6250 might be the target.  Gun to my head, not sure it reaches it.  But not not sure, either.  Not trending in the right direction, at any rate.

[leoh]

41 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

How do you continue outdoing yourself with your ignorance? Like what you say here about the first movie's reception is provably untrue. It's pretty obvious you have no clue what you are talking about and I don't even see you learning from what more experienced users say. Sorry but I had to say this before I block you.

hope it doesn’t hurt your cinephile feelings the opinion of normies…
 

Dune: Critics divided over Denis Villeneuve’s ‘dazzling’ and ‘boring’ sci-fi adaptation

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/dune-review-round-up-denis-villeneuve-b1914281.html

“I watched dune and felt nothing, it’s boring” (121k views/4.2k likes) 

 

Everything wrong with Dune in 20 minutes:

“it’s slow, boring and I almost slept” (1million views)

 

Edited February 29 by leoh

[vale9001]

The first movie has a 90% approval on RT and a 8.0 average on IMDb on 800k votes. Plus an A- cinemascore.

This movie started with 9.1 on IMDb. Not every movie with "fans" starts with that.

 

I don't see data suggesting dune has a "terrible reputation" on GA.

What this saga has not is the interest from Kids and under 25 people (despite they involved chalamet and Zendaya) so this has an impact on previews and not weekend days (especially when the movie is 3 hours long). 

Let's see if WOM can change this. 

 

 

 

Edited February 29 by vale9001

[leoh]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	242	25728	30738	5010	16.30%

 

Total Showings Added Today	5
Total Seats Added Today	470
Total Seats Sold Today	577

 

T-1 "Anchor" Comps

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune	237.78		365	2107		0/109	12686/14793	14.24%		2915	171.87%		12.13m
Ava 2	69.19		971	7241		0/309	27735/34976	20.70%		8986	55.75%		11.76m
Oppy	135.15		594	3707		1/80	7152/10859	34.14%		4621	108.42%		14.19m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-1 Mostly Pace Purposes Comps

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	52.52		1621	9539		1/327	29315/38854	24.55%		11757	42.61%		12.82m
Thor 4	37.07		2246	13516		0/312	25975/39491	34.23%		16962	29.54%		10.75m
BP2	36.78		1695	13622		2/375	29516/43138	31.58%		16800	29.82%		10.30m
AM3	57.89		979	8654		0/305	28519/37173	23.28%		10475	47.83%		10.13m
GOTG3	59.91		1174	8363		0/343	33312/41675	20.07%		10750	46.60%		10.48m
TGM	51.88		945	9656		2/345	33356/43012	22.45%		11474	43.66%		9.99m
JWD	59.51		1560	8419		0/290	25319/33738	24.95%		10966	45.69%		10.71m
Wick 4	127.97		716	3915		0/173	17327/21242	18.43%		5448	91.96%		11.39m
Fast X	171.11		545	2928		0/243	30319/33247	8.81%		4122	121.54%		12.83m
TLM	100.72		1002	4974		0/225	24182/29156	17.06%		6561	76.36%		10.37m
Indy 5	142.94		613	3505		0/184	21339/24844	14.11%		4767	105.10%		10.29m
Oppy	135.15		594	3707		1/80	7152/10859	34.14%		4621	108.42%		14.19m
Bats Tue EA	106.19		——	743		0/3	72/815	91.17%		743	106.19%		2.12m

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:       1265/9860  [12.83% sold]
Matinee:      193/3555  [5.43% | 3.85% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:               789/814  [96.93% sold] [FINAL]
Thr:          4221/29924  [14.11% sold] [+577 tickets]
PLF:          3355/10865  [30.88% | 66.97% of all tickets sold]
Thr PLF:    2566/10051  [25.53% sold | 60.79% of Thr tickets sold]

 

======

 

Yeaaaah, honestly want to see a bit more.  Second day in a row that the pace against Dune is dropping (T-2: 1.78x |  T-1: 1.58x).

 

Doing some checks against the final totals of Avatar: The Way of Water and Oppenheimer need around 6200-6250 total tickets sold for 10m Thursday (presuming a 2m Sun), so about 1,200 to 1,250 tomorrow by end of tracking.  For comparison, Dune sold 808 tickets on its T-0 (later stop time for tracking, but also day and date considerations), so D2 have to do about 1.5x T-0 Dune to have a fighting chance. 

 

A check against Dune proper tells me that 6200-6250 would only spit out around 11m or so (including EA).  However if I use the 2021 to 2023 ATP adjustment I've been using for films like GBA  (1.13047x), 6250 total tickets sold spits out 12.36m (again, including EA), or about 10.3(-ish)m for Thur.

 

Sooooo... Yeah.  6200=6250 might be the target.  Gun to my head, not sure it reaches it.  But not not sure, either.  Not trending in the right direction, at any rate.

 

Interesting…. What it’d your realistic projection for the OW based on this?

[Liiviig 1998]

Well honestly not surprised. Dune kind of scews the 35+ Demo . That crowd just dissapointed us with MI7. TGM was one of those events.

 

Same with NTTD . Just shocked how that failed to lift off domestically.

 

Wick  4 to Wonka numbers domestic and around Wonka numbers worldwide which is fine but not exciting as I hoped.

 

Will have to wait for DM4 , IO2 ,DP3 summer showdown for some  juicy numbers.

 

May is basically wildcard month . They is always a box suprise somewhere .  My pick is Garfield. 

[lorddemaxus]

11 minutes ago, leoh said:

hope it doesn’t hurt your cinephile feelings the opinion of normies…
 

Dune: Critics divided over Denis Villeneuve’s ‘dazzling’ and ‘boring’ sci-fi adaptation

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/dune-review-round-up-denis-villeneuve-b1914281.html

“I watched dune and felt nothing, it’s boring” (121k views/4.2k likes) 

 

Everything wrong with Dune in 20 minutes:

“it’s slow, boring and I almost slept” (1million views)

 

You literally just proved my point. Using YouTube videos, including a Cinemasins video as proof. Cmon man...

[Porthos]

Just now, leoh said:

 

Interesting…. What it’d your realistic projection for the OW based on this?

 

 

Projecting OW off of Thursdays is VERY MUCH NOT my specialty. 🙂 

 

I do think though that the PLF sales are gonna inflate things more than a bit/counteract the fanboi rush.  That plus the length of the film should plausibly push it up.

 

But a hard number or a range?  Have to look to others for that, I'm afraid.

[vale9001]

10 minutes ago, leoh said:

hope it doesn’t hurt your cinephile feelings the opinion of normies…
 

Dune: Critics divided over Denis Villeneuve’s ‘dazzling’ and ‘boring’ sci-fi adaptation

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/dune-review-round-up-denis-villeneuve-b1914281.html

“I watched dune and felt nothing, it’s boring” (121k views/4.2k likes) 

 

Everything wrong with Dune in 20 minutes:

“it’s slow, boring and I almost slept” (1million views)

 

 

 

Well i was talking with a friend of mine some time ago about The lord of the Rings First movie and She told me "i felt asleep after 1 hour. First time It happened with a movie".

Another friend of mine told me Inception is very very boring. 

 

So if you talk about GA in such a generic way (so basically people not "loving movies" but watching movies here and there "casually" you can find this kind of opinions even for movies are clearly universally very loved)

 

 

[leoh]

5 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Well honestly not surprised. Dune kind of scews the 35+ Demo . That crowd just dissapointed us with MI7. TGM was one of those events.

 

Same with NTTD . Just shocked how that failed to lift off domestically.

 

Wick  4 to Wonka numbers domestic and around Wonka numbers worldwide which is fine but not exciting as I hoped.

 

Will have to wait for DM4 , IO2 ,DP3 summer showdown for some  juicy numbers.

 

May is basically wildcard month . They is always a box suprise somewhere .  My pick is Garfield. 

Garfield may be a good box office surprise, it’d face Planet of Apes and Furiosa, Planet of Apes has already changed for May second weekend, and I read WB will change Furiosa release date.     

[leoh]

10 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

You literally just proved my point. Using YouTube videos, including a Cinemasins video as proof. Cmon man...

Because when I said GA I was always talking about normies, I was not talking about critics and cinephiles…

Edited February 29 by leoh