The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

On 3/2/2024 at 7:17 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

KUNG FU PANDA 4

 

Thursday

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
486	1620	95176	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

673

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(1.653x) of Trolls 3 $2.15M

(0.924x) of Elemental $2.22M

(2.447x) of Migration $3.67M

(0.790x) of TMNT $3.04M

 

COMP AVG: $2.77M

 

Good news, increased a lot against comps for the past few days. Still looking like a $30Mish OW

FLORIDA 

 

KUNG FU PANDA 4

 

Thursday

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
527	1991	103166	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

371

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

41

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

627

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(2.049x) of Migration $3.07M

(0.608x) of TMNT $2.34M

 

COMP AVG: $2.71M

Edited March 5 by TheFlatLannister

[vafrow]

16 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

KUNG FU PANDA 4

 

Thursday

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
527	1991	103166	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

371

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

41

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

627

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(2.049x) of Migration $3.07M

(0.608x) of TMNT $2.34M

 

COMP AVG: $2.71M

 

For the TMNT comp, that was a Tuesday night, correct? The ATP should be higher on KFP4 if thats the case. Assuming Florida has discounted Tuesdays.

[DAJK]

Don’t have full comps yet, as I’ve just done a few seat counts (waiting for numbers to come in from some friends) but Panda’s looking pretty solid in terms of sales throughout the weekend. Definitely ahead of Trolls by a wide margin. I’d be shocked if it opened under 30.

[TwoMisfits]

Xfinity has finally closed the KFP4 deal (which had been going on since presale open) saying "all rewards claimed" - so, that free ticket bump should be mostly over (I mean, there could be some stragglers who claimed codes but haven't bought yet)...

[TheFlatLannister]

27 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

For the TMNT comp, that was a Tuesday night, correct? The ATP should be higher on KFP4 if thats the case. Assuming Florida has discounted Tuesdays.

yes that was a Tuesday. ATP will be higher for KFP, by how much I have no clue 

[filmlover]

Over the weekend, my IMAX showing of Dune featured trailers for so many of this summer's aspiring blockbusters, trailers that have premiered in recent weeks and were probably making their in-theater debuts with this. it's probably not a coincidence that all these movies are fighting for trailer space given how there hasn't been much of note released these past two months (and nobody wants to bow the previews for their big tentpoles before an obvious nonstarter ala Madame Web). Bob Marley is looking to be the only release to hit $100M from the first two months of the year and might struggle to reach it if it can't find staying power soon.

 

Gonna be a quite a month of battling for trailer space with these big IP-based titles coming out (though Panda's trailers will obviously be exclusively family-targeted).

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, leoh said:

Dune 2 actuals finally reported:

Warner Bros this Morning estimate were 1 million above the actual BO.

 

TOTAL actual opening weekend:

81,505,391

 

FRIDAY: 32,211,366

SATURDAY: 27,718,894

SUNDAY: 21,575,131

 

 

@M37 2.7x seems to be ok because Dune 2 made 27.7 million Saturday against a 10M on Thursday reported by WB.

@Shawn Robbins once again did a great job, projecting 80.9M for Dune opening weekend, only 600k away from the actuals. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Someone, somewhere, fucked up, as it's now being listed as 82.5m.  Already corrected in the WE thread a while ago, but also commenting here for posterity.

 

Quote

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days
Feb 29, 2024	P	$12,000,000		3,400	$3,529	$12,000,000
Mar 1, 2024	1	$32,211,366		4,071	$7,912	$32,211,366	1
Mar 2, 2024	1	$28,718,894	-11%	4,071	$7,055	$60,930,260	2
Mar 3, 2024	1	$21,575,131	-25%	4,071	$5,300	$82,505,391	3

 

...

 

I'd say "it looks like I missed some drama" in the WE thread... But, really, "missed" is not the word I would use.

 

[leoh]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Someone, somewhere, fucked up, as it's now being listed as 82.5m.  Already corrected in the WE thread a while ago, but also commenting here for posterity.

 

 

...

 

I'd say "it looks like I missed some drama" in the WE thread... But, really, "missed" is not the word I would use.

 

hahaha

 

Legendary Pictures is the big and well deserved winner.

 

It’s interesting that none of the 5 major film studios were able to see the potential of Dune and let a minor studio like Legendary to buy the rights in 2016.

 

WB may be relieved cuz they at least accepted to distribute it lol

Edited March 5 by leoh

[von Kenni]

9 hours ago, von Kenni said:

Real preview numbers based on WB estimates today and how accurate MTC1 was with Dune

 

WB estimates not surprisingly corrected Sat number a bit down to lower the drop which eventually was 24.6% for Sunday which was in my 80% confidence area seen at the bottom table from yesterday but because of using the inaccurately reported Sat numbers my lower end was at $82.7M instead of $82.5M which it would have been with correctly reported Sat number. All-in-all, math is beautiful and MTC1 turned out to be very accurate but reported numbers were slightly off and they most likely rounded a lot the preview numbers from $11.47M (+-0.1M) to $12M.

 

Today reported numbers:

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days
Feb 29, 2024	P	$12,000,000		3,400	$3,529	$12,000,000
Mar 1, 2024	1	$32,150,000		4,071	$7,897	$32,150,000	1
Mar 2, 2024	1	$28,700,000	-11%	4,071	$7,050	$60,850,000	2
Mar 3, 2024	1	$21,650,000	-25%	4,071	$5,318	$82,500,000	3

 

Using the WB Sat estimate, MTC1 was just 0.9% off which reveals $20.68M true Friday (+-0.15M) and gives exactly the reported Sunday numbers with 81% walkups pace compared to Sat (I had the low-end at 80%), i.e. 19% worse. Reasons for this can be:

 

• Naturally less walkups for later showtimes in the evening due to the next day being a workday.
• Saturday might have been somewhat frontloaded (amazing 39% jump!) due to people (older and families) preferring to see it on Saturday rather than Friday evening after a long work week plus PLFs were more available throughout the Saturday than cramming everything to Friday evening.
• Other? --please chip in, especially the experienced trackers on this forum, but anyone else too

 

All-in-all the Sunday number was off by $1.15M based on WB estimates which wasn't a surprise even if in the end it didn't reach my and Keysersoze's anticipated $2-3M correction partly due to the over-estimated industry numbers on Sat and Fri+Previews and partly with walkups pace hitting the lower-end of what was expected.

 

Even though I might have lost in my personal bet of the high-end $85M in that 80% confidence level (even though they were based on the industry estimates too) my cool-headedness a bit, I feel good about how it turned out after they corrected the numbers hitting the low-end and how MTC1 was very consistent in predicting the outcomes and revealing the walkup pace.

 

 

 

 

Yesterday's estimates using the reported industry estimates that we now know were slightly off as a comparison

 

 

 

 

For those who are interested, above info on how accurate and consistent MTC1 was with Dune and how WB most likely rounded up previews. Looks like the final, finals were $60k higher with Fri+previews (adjust my previews with that) and rest few thousand off (not making all these anew either such small differences).

[misterpepp]

Late Night with the Devil on sale March 7

[keysersoze123]

On 3/3/2024 at 9:12 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 14822/322836 224345.20 2106 shows +1608

Friday - 19826/475047 299899.82 2960 shows +3451

 

Definitely some sign of acceleration. Let us see how final stretch goes. I am still not believing in this breaking out.  

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 18580/378162 279825.48 2543 shows +3758

Friday - 27674/569560 413519.36 3676 shows +7848

 

Amazing day for Panda. I dont know if @M37 is extrapolating where this is ending up. I want to see another day of growth. But looking at something similar to what most are seeing. Somewhere around 70K finish which should be ~3.75m previews. 

[dallas]

Kung Fu Panda 4

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-3

Tickets Sold: 54 (+4)

Growth: 8%

% PLF: n/a

5 theaters/18 showtimes

 

Comps:

(1.174x) of Migration - $1.76 Million

(0.435x) of Wonka - $1.52 Million

COMPS AVG - $1.64 Million

 

Yeesh. Terrible pace here. I'm not really seeing any promising signs. If things dont get better, then I'm not even sure this does $30M...

[leoh]

9 minutes ago, dallas said:

Kung Fu Panda 4

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-3

Tickets Sold: 54 (+4)

Growth: 8%

% PLF: n/a

5 theaters/18 showtimes

 

Comps:

(1.174x) of Migration - $1.76 Million

(0.435x) of Wonka - $1.52 Million

COMPS AVG - $1.64 Million

 

Yeesh. Terrible pace here. I'm not really seeing any promising signs. If things dont get better, then I'm not even sure this does $30M...

Animation usually have great walk ups, idk Panda might end up having huge ones, and from what I’m seeing in NY AMC theaters, pre sales for Panda are way better on Friday screenings…

Edited March 5 by leoh

[emoviefan]

The last few posts about Panda. Can anyone say whiplash. 

[Borobudur]

51 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 18580/378162 279825.48 2543 shows +3758

Friday - 27674/569560 413519.36 3676 shows +7848

 

Amazing day for Panda. I dont know if @M37 is extrapolating where this is ending up. I want to see another day of growth. But looking at something similar to what most are seeing. Somewhere around 70K finish which should be ~3.75m previews. 

If demographic breakdown for Dune 2 is any sign, families are still starving from new product. 

[Maaatt]

5 hours ago, leoh said:

hahaha

 

Legendary Pictures is the big and well deserved winner.

 

It’s interesting that none of the 5 major film studios were able to see the potential of Dune and let a minor studio like Legendary to buy the rights in 2016.

 

WB may be relieved cuz they at least accepted to distribute it lol

 

Dune was quite notoriously considered by many to be "unfilmable." A number of different filmmakers admired the book and wanted and/or attempted to make a film adaptation (including Ridley Scott) but those attempts always failed and the projects were never made.. Except of course David Lynch's 1980's film which was a massive flop and despised by critics. The general consensus in Hollywood after that was that the belief the IP was simply too dense and unfilmable had been correct. Eventually SyFy made a miniseries which made sense given the time needed to fully tell such a dense story but miniseries at the time had budgets nowhere close to those of theatrical movies and a good budget was really needed to tell the story at the level fans of the book wanted. It is somewhat surprising studios didn't jump at making it after LOTR but I'm assuming many executives still had memories of the 1980's Lynch film. Legendary then got the rights in 2016 after they went on the hunt for potential franchise properties and Game of Thrones had exploded into popularity. 

 

Warners does technically co-finance the films with Legendary, though its a relatively small percentage of something like 20-25%. A lot of the studios like these sorts of distribution/co-financing output deals because it limits their risk (granted it also limits the  potential upside) and they make money off a distribution fee even if the film is a financial failure. 

[leoh]

58 minutes ago, Maaatt said:

 

Dune was quite notoriously considered by many to be "unfilmable." A number of different filmmakers admired the book and wanted and/or attempted to make a film adaptation (including Ridley Scott) but those attempts always failed and the projects were never made.. Except of course David Lynch's 1980's film which was a massive flop and despised by critics. The general consensus in Hollywood after that was that the belief the IP was simply too dense and unfilmable had been correct. Eventually SyFy made a miniseries which made sense given the time needed to fully tell such a dense story but miniseries at the time had budgets nowhere close to those of theatrical movies and a good budget was really needed to tell the story at the level fans of the book wanted. It is somewhat surprising studios didn't jump at making it after LOTR but I'm assuming many executives still had memories of the 1980's Lynch film. Legendary then got the rights in 2016 after they went on the hunt for potential franchise properties and Game of Thrones had exploded into popularity. 

 

Warners does technically co-finance the films with Legendary, though it’s a relatively small percentage of something like 20-25%. A lot of the studios like these sorts of distribution/co-financing output deals because it limits their risk (granted it also limits the  potential upside) and they make money off a distribution fee even if the film is a financial failure. 

It seems WB 25% co-finance is related to the expensive distribution costs (which includes marketing). WB does seem to get around 20% from net box office. 
 

What few people seem to member is that Legendary is now a Sony partner, they broke their relationship with Warner in 2022 and signed a deal with Sony.

 

So yeah Duna and monster-verse sequels will be distributed by Sony in the upcoming years, all of them Legendary properties.

(I don’t remember who, but I think it was either @dallas, @Shawn Robbins or @charlie Jatinder who explained some time ago the WB mistakes that led Legendary cut ties with them to sign with Sony)
 

https://variety.com/2022/film/news/legendary-entertainment-sony-deal-warner-bros-1235443325/amp/

Edited March 5 by leoh

[Grand Cine]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 18580/378162 279825.48 2543 shows +3758

Friday - 27674/569560 413519.36 3676 shows +7848

 

Amazing day for Panda. I dont know if @M37 is extrapolating where this is ending up. I want to see another day of growth. But looking at something similar to what most are seeing. Somewhere around 70K finish which should be ~3.75m previews. 

Ok , we have the deal effect maybe but i can make other comparaison :

 

Elemental :

MTC1 Previews(T-3) - 13652/312865 211666.02 2263 shows +2335

Friday (T-4) - 14317/482882 207658.53 3292 shows

 

Trolls 3 :

Previews - 6215/323717 88443.95 2157 shows +954

Friday - 13945/444159 199792.03 2850 shows +3527

 

At this point :

For thursday :

Trolls 3 : 3,16x so around 3,79M

Elemental : 1,32X so around 3,16M

Average : 3,47M

 

For Friday :

Trolls 3 : 2,07x so around 15,1M

Elemental : 1,99x so around 18,5M

Average : 16,8M

 

Clearly , the prediction for previews are good , i think Friday comp will be down for sure but i think 11-12M True Friday could happen , if it's the case , 40M will happen .

 

Great battle next weekend with a Panda against Sandworm

 

[Porthos]

On 3/1/2024 at 1:31 AM, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Kung Fu Panda 4 Sacramento Report [T-7]

345/12499 (2.76% sold) [+29 tickets] [97 showtimes]

 

0.46875x  GBA at T-7           [2.38m] [adj'ed for ATP hikes since 2021]
1.12745x    Elemental at T-7 [2.71m]
0.71134x   Wonka at T-7       [2.49m]

 

====

 

Eh.  Seeing some growth, but no real acceleration yet.  Still, not the best comps in the world here so could just be bad pattern matching.  Probs won't make another update until T-3 or so unless I see real signs of takeoff locally.

 

Quick and Dirty Kung Fu Panda 4 Sacramento Report [T-3]

735/14956 (4.91% sold) [+143 tickets] [129 showtimes]

 

1.38418x Elemental at T-3               [3.32m]
----

0.62447x GBA at T-3                       [3.18m] [adj'ed for ATP hikes since 2021]
0.45092x Sonic 2 at T-3                  [2.82m] 
0.38583x Minons 2 at T-3               [4.15m]
1.05301x Shazam 2 at T-3               [3.58m]
0.79978x Haunted Mansion at T-3 [2.48m]

0.85069x Wonka at T-3                   [2.98m] 
 

===

 

Like all other markets, def seeing growth.  Prob gonna come down to just what the adult/teen ticket price to kids ratio is for this flick.  I reckon it's gonna have at least somewhat of a stronger non-kids price ticket skew than Elemental simply for nostalgia.  But I'm leery of putting too much weight on that quite yet. 

 

Out of all the comps, maybe Shazam 2?!?  Dunno.  Gut feeling maybe? Should be higher than Elemental at any rate; just not sure how much higher.

 

Still, going up, as I said.  Just have to see how high.

 

(no, the comps aren't the best)

((that's why it's called a "Quick and Dirty" 👍))

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-4 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 203

New Sales: 49

Growth: 32%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 11.9

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 3/2

Late Afternoon: 34/3

Early Evening: 86/6

Late Evening: 80/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 107/8
3D Regular:27/6
Dolby: 69/3

 

Comps

2.819x Wonka for $9.9M

1.493x Aquaman 2 for $6.7M

0.391x The Marvels for $2.6M

 

It's still going really strong. I threw in Aquaman 2 and Marvels as comps, just to give something else as this has clearly outdone Wonka.

 

The fact that it's holding its own against fan driven superhero films shows how strong it's holding. It's growth rate is much better than Marvels was at this stage, so that'll creep up over the course of the week.

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-3 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 285

New Sales: 82

Growth: 40%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 16.8

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 5/2

Late Afternoon: 37/3

Early Evening: 130/6

Late Evening: 113/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 135/8
3D Regular:55/6
Dolby: 95/3

 

Comps

3.167x Wonka for $11.1M

1.638x Aquaman 2 for $7.4M

0.499x The Marvels for $3.3M

 

40% growth day when it's already performing well.

 

I don't know what to make of this, but sales are heavily concentrated to one particular location that has about 70% of sales, and it's not the biggest theatre in the area. It's actually only a 6 screen, but it has a lot of other entertainment aspects. It was only built last year, so it draws an outsized crowd, but I haven't really seen many cases like this.