The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

How about Elemental and Trolls 3?

Not good😬. Elemental overindex in Orlando (Disney effect) so that's why I didn't use it 

 

Trolls 3: (0.146x) ~$1.91M

Elemental: (0.760x) ~$1.82M

Edited March 7 by TheFlatLannister

[Minnale101]

I said this earlier in thread but I’m gonna stick by it, kfp4 I think is gonna over index in cities and places with higher Chinese population 

 

I was looking at Markham (city in Ontario Canada) and it has massive Chinese population and it’s doing way better there than cineplex in other cities around me 

 

just wanted to add numbers for context  

markham 191 tickets sold for tonight 4 shows 

 

48 tickets per show

 

 

Brampton my city 62 tickets sold for tonight 2 shows

31 tickets show 

 

(my respect level for people who count individual seats has gone up drastically, this shit hurts my eyes with how small seats be hahah)

Edited March 7 by Minnale101

[keysersoze123]

On 3/2/2024 at 10:02 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MTC1

Previews - 14934/522022 265337.76 2663 shows

Friday - 7985/588104 137245.71 3103 shows 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MTC1

Previews - 18963/529081 335243.77 2701 shows

Friday - 11111/600988 191662.51 3165 shows

 

2 weeks to go. Still does not look like its going to outopen afterlife. 

[keysersoze123]

29 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Not good😬. Elemental overindex in Orlando (Disney effect) so that's why I didn't use it 

 

Trolls 3: (0.146x) ~$1.91M

Elemental: (0.760x) ~$1.82M

Wait. Panda comps with Trolls is just 1.46x thursday. yikes. 

Edited March 7 by keysersoze123

[el sid]

Kung Fu Panda 4, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 240 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): (17 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 56 (12 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 68 (11 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 56 (10 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): (13 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): (18 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.185.

Comps: Dolittle (5.375M true Friday) had 395 sold tickets = 16.1M true Friday for KFP.
JWD (41.55M) had 5.623 = 8.7M.
Boss Baby 2 (6.4M) had 190 = 39.9M (🤔).
Sonic 2 (20.15M) had 1.851 = 12.9M.
Minions 2 (37.4M) had 2.893 = 15.3M.

And Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie had 560 sold tickets but here I have no true Friday number → it made 6.8M on Thursday + Friday.

 

Average (without Paw Patrol because of the missing Friday number): 18.6M with Boss Baby 2 and 13.25M without BB2. So if I take the lower average and it would jump let's say 50% on Saturday it would be very roughly 50M OW.

[el sid]

Cabrini, counted today for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 5 (2 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 49 (1 showtime)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 20 (12 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 3 (1 showtime)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 10 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 24 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 14 (2 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 125.

Comps: Overcomer (775k from previews) had on Thursday for Thursday 91 sold tickets
and After Death (2.1M OD) had also on Thursday for Thursday 78 sold tickets.
Sound of Freedom (14.2M OD) had on Tuesday for Tuesday 1.189 sold tickets.

No idea to which preview number this could lead but IMO with the good reviews it should at least reach 500k+.

[Grand Cine]

22 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MTC1

Previews - 18963/529081 335243.77 2701 shows

Friday - 11111/600988 191662.51 3165 shows

 

2 weeks to go. Still does not look like its going to outopen afterlife. 

The Thursday/Friday ratio isn't good

[el sid]

Cabrini, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 13 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 205 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 102 (6 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 28 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 16 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 53 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 26 (4 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 443.

Comps: Overcomer (8.1M) had on Thursday for Friday 34 sold tickets

and After Death (5.1M OW) had also on Thursday for Friday 185 sold tickets.
Sound of Freedom (41.7M 6-day) had 2 days earlier, on Tuesday for Friday, 380 sold tickets.

Maybe with good WOM high single digits or double digits are possible.

[M37]

Fwiw, I'm still mostly in the lower $3s range for KFP4 preview, despite the new data coming in. Weekday values for animated/family movies are far more sensitive to secondary factors like when schools are closed, slight demo shifts can really impact ticket sales in markets, so bigger MOE on the comp values, even with the most analogous Trolls 3

 

The biggest sample is MTC1, which should smooth out those variables, and difficult to see sub-$3M from the expected ~55K finish.  Now if MTC1 finishes at or below 50K, then we can talk

[katnisscinnaplex]

7 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Cabrini	T-0	Jax	5	11	10	119	958	12.42%
		Phx	7	17	15	78	1,367	5.71%
		Ral	7	15	3	55	1,560	3.53%
	Total		19	43	28	252	3,885	6.49%
Imaginary	T-0	Jax	5	15	7	47	1,371	3.43%
		Phx	7	13	18	50	1,507	3.32%
		Ral	8	16	26	66	1,282	5.15%
	Total		20	44	51	163	4,160	3.92%
Kung Fu Panda 4	T-0	Jax	5	64	126	315	6,756	4.66%
		Phx	7	70	111	394	9,797	4.02%
		Ral	8	67	118	372	7,425	5.01%
	Total		20	201	355	1,081	23,978	4.51%

 

Kung Fu Panda T-0 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .793x (2.46m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .484x (3.02m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .494x (2.77m)

 - Lightyear (Total) - .564x (3.1m)

 - Elemental - 1.613x (3.87m)

 - Super Pets - 2.36x (5.18m)

 - Minions 2 - .364x (3.91m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 4.17x (5.47m)

 - Spider-verse 2 - .149x (2.59m)

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Kung Fu Panda 4	120.16%	36.25%	12.78%	48.90%
Haunted Mansion Total	79.47%	33.03%	26.33%	22.77%
Sonic 2 (Total)	87.82%	33.19%	21.13%	18.76%
Turtles Total	46.26%	38.97%	29.79%	22.51%
Lightyear Total	131.36%	33.05%	-	39.49%
Elemental	130.24%	25.09%	-	39.58%
Super Pets	163.79%	41.38%	46.08%	55.07%
Minions 2	265.23%	-	-	72.75%
Boss Baby 2	159.00%	61.00%	64.10%	48.00%

 

Much better day for the panda.  I'm feeling more confident in it breaking 3m now, especially if this trend continues throughout the day.

 

Size adjusted comp* - 3.67m

*I have been mislabeling this as growth model forecast

Growth model forecast - 3.38m

 

I've also been loosely following true preview comps for Panda.

 - Haunted Mansion - 1.08x (3.13m)

 - Sonic 2 - .617x (3.07m)

 - Lightyear - .627x (3.07m)

 - Elemental - 1.61x (3.87m)

 - Super Pets - 2.36x (5.18m)

 - Minions 2 - .364x (3.91m)

 

Growth model forecast - 3.52m

 

Imaginary T-0 comps

 - Insidious 5 - .16x (798k)

 - Escape Room 2 - .66x (792k)

 - Invitation - .872x (676k)

 - Old - .497x (745k)

 - Boogeyman - .815x (815k)

 - Prey for the Devil - 1.173x (774k)

 

Size adjusted comp*- 754k

*I have been mislabeling this as growth model forecast

Growth model forecast - 691k

 

Cabrini T-0 comps

 - Sound of Freedom - .076x (395k)

 - Left Behind - .555x (339k)

 - I Heard the Bells - .508x (392k)

 - Jesus Revolution - .141x (465k)

 

Size adjusted comp* - 354k

*I have been mislabeling this as growth model forecast

Growth model forecast - 357k

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Cabrini	1-Hr	Jax	5	11	20	139	958	14.51%
		Phx	7	17	20	98	1,367	7.17%
		Ral	7	15	21	76	1,560	4.87%
	Total		19	43	61	313	3,885	8.06%
Imaginary	1-Hr	Jax	5	15	41	88	1,371	6.42%
		Phx	7	13	31	81	1,507	5.37%
		Ral	8	16	29	95	1,282	7.41%
	Total		20	44	101	264	4,160	6.35%
Kung Fu Panda 4	1-Hr	Jax	5	64	133	448	6,756	6.63%
		Phx	7	70	134	528	9,797	5.39%
		Ral	8	71	156	528	7,985	6.61%
	Total		20	205	423	1,504	24,538	6.13%

 

Kung Fu Panda T-1 hr comps

 - Haunted Mansion - 1.073x (3.11m)

 - Sonic 2 - missed

 - TMNT - .606x (2.97m)

 - Lightyear - .606x (3.3m)

 - Elemental - 1.376x (3.2m)

 - Super Pets - 1.92x (4.23m)

 - Minions 2 - .335x (3.6m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 3.3x (4.32m)

 - Spider-verse 2 - .162x (2.8m)

All PG movies - 3.26m

All animated movies - 3.52m

All 2pm previews - 3.4m

All movies - 3.25m

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.5m

Growth model forecast - 3.38m

 

Lots of numbers floating around.  While it was looking like ~3m for a while there, same day sales are looking promising.  I'll go with 3.4m for my official prediction.

 

Imaginary T-1 hr comps

 - Insidious 5 - .149x (743k)

 - Escape Room 2 - .581x (698k)

 - Invitation - .866x (671k)

 - Old - .4x (600k)

 - Boogeyman - .662x (662k)

 - Prey for the Devil - 1.163x (768k)

 - M3GAN - .238x (653k)

All horror movies - 651k

All PG-13 movies - 551k

All 6pm previews - 585k

All movies - 570k

 

Size adjusted comps - 690k

Growth model forecast - 602k

 

This has been in freefall all week.  I'm settling on 650k for previews.

 

Cabrini T-1 hr comps

 - Sound of Freedom - missed

 - Left Behind - .579x (353k)

 - I Heard the Bells - missed

 - Jesus Revolution - missed

All drama movies - 574k

All 6pm previews - 693k

All movies - 676k

 

Really in the dark here.  I'll go with 400k

[jeffthehat]

Malco

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire T-14

Day	Sales	Seats	Shows
Thu	308	12928	73
Fri	439	19660	108
Sat	472	20970	114

Thursday Comps

0.42x Dune 2 T-14 = $4.2m

0.38x Marvels T-14 (10 theaters) = $2.5m

Friday Comp

0.40x Dune 2 T-15 = $8.2m

Saturday Comp

0.43x Dune 2 T-16 = $12.3m

 

THU AVG = $3.4m

---

Using studio numbers for Dune 2 comps. Don't doubt they're inaccurate, but prefer to keep the method consistent. 

[keysersoze123]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

Fwiw, I'm still mostly in the lower $3s range for KFP4 preview, despite the new data coming in. Weekday values for animated/family movies are far more sensitive to secondary factors like when schools are closed, slight demo shifts can really impact ticket sales in markets, so bigger MOE on the comp values, even with the most analogous Trolls 3

 

The biggest sample is MTC1, which should smooth out those variables, and difficult to see sub-$3M from the expected ~55K finish.  Now if MTC1 finishes at or below 50K, then we can talk

Its ATP is quite low. I know Charlie said family movies have limited impact due to subs and so have to be adjusted up but this movie has even bigger catalyst in xfinity offer. So I am not sure if 50K at 14.50 ATP is sufficient to hit 3m. This does not even account for any discounted children tickets. 

[jeffthehat]

On 3/2/2024 at 4:23 PM, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire T-19

Sales	Seats	Shows
615	23717	122

Comps

0.62x Dune: Part Two T-19 = $5.7m

3.58x Kung Fu Panda 4 T-19 = ??

---

Seems like a strong start here too 

Indiana

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire T-14

Sales	Seats	Shows
678	23880	123

Comp

0.59x Dune: Part Two T-14 = $5.9m

Edited March 7 by jeffthehat

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

7 minutes ago, el sid said:

Cabrini, counted today for Friday:
... Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 443.

Comps: Overcomer (8.1M) had on Thursday for Friday 34 sold tickets

and After Death (5.1M OW) had also on Thursday for Friday 185 sold tickets.
Sound of Freedom (41.7M 6-day) had 2 days earlier, on Tuesday for Friday, 380 sold tickets.

Maybe with good WOM high single digits or double digits are possible.

 

The Angel Studios website currently shows that Total Pre-Sales for Cabrini are at ~473,000 tickets pre-sold. (This number has grown by ~200,000 in 2 days.) Of course there's no time period for ticket use given, but the majority seem to be purchased for the weekend as pointed out by El Sid, etc.  It seems like Regal's portal is not directly connected to the Angel Studios booking website, so the count is probably not fully live, which means this number may not capture all current pre-sales.

 

At the $15 face value ascribed to the tickets by Angel Studios, that equates to ~$7,095,000 in pre-sales. Of course there has been rampant discounting (a 15% discount is still occurring on the Angel website), so would a fair average be around $12? If so, that equates to about $5,676,000 in pre-sales. 

 

Since today is classified as opening day, then pre-sales for today would not be attributed to the weekend. To be cautious and estimate that $500,000 of those are for today, after subtracting those out, then that points to ~$5,176,000+ of additional pre-sales going into the weekend.

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

 

The Angel Studios website currently shows that Total Pre-Sales for Cabrini are at ~473,000 tickets pre-sold. (This number has grown by ~200,000 in 2 days.) Of course there's no time period for ticket use given, but the majority seem to be purchased for the weekend as pointed out by El Sid, etc.  It seems like Regal's portal is not directly connected to the Angel Studios booking website, so the count is probably not fully live, which means this number may not capture all current pre-sales.

 

At the $15 face value ascribed to the tickets by Angel Studios, that equates to ~$7,095,000 in pre-sales. Of course there has been rampant discounting (a 15% discount is still occurring on the Angel website), so would a fair average be around $12? If so, that equates to about $5,676,000 in pre-sales. 

 

Since today is classified as opening day, then pre-sales for today would not be attributed to the weekend. To be cautious and estimate that $500,000 of those are for today, after subtracting those out, then that points to ~$5,176,000+ of additional pre-sales going into the weekend.

Any comps with Sound of Freedom?

[M37]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Its ATP is quite low. I know Charlie said family movies have limited impact due to subs and so have to be adjusted up but this movie has even bigger catalyst in xfinity offer. So I am not sure if 50K at 14.50 ATP is sufficient to hit 3m. This does not even account for any discounted children tickets. 

The ATP of pretty much every family movie is low, but it’s balanced out by the fact that it’s a much more casual audience that doesn’t have as strong a preference for MTC1. Making comps to Dune is quite literally comparing apples & oranges 

 

The Thursday PSM for Trolls and Migration were each over $66/tix, and they didn’t get that high by way of ATP. Elemental was much lower, but IMO that was far more the result of Disney’s weakness in lower level markets and chains that usually add to the total and lower the market share for MTC1 (and increase PSM)

 

PSM is directly related to ATP,  but inversely related to MS. So if both go up or down, the result is in same range 

[rehpyc]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Panda 4 previews are at 38840/464899 563138.32 at this time. I think it can get to 750K and 3m finish if it has 25% ratio like what @charlie Jatinder mentioned earlier. I am curious what @rehpyc has by end of day. 

3 - 3.15 is about where I have it, more inclined for the higher end.

Edited March 7 by rehpyc

[TheFlatLannister]

On 3/6/2024 at 8:06 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Ghostbusters

 

Thursday 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
478	2573	96731	2.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

167

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-14

(0.508x) of Dune 2 $4.70M  

 

Comps average: $4.70M

FLORIDA 

 

Ghostbusters

 

Thursday 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
482	2674	97492	2.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

101

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-14

(0.503x) of Dune 2 $4.66M  

 

Comps average: $4.66M

Edited March 8 by TheFlatLannister

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Not good😬. Elemental overindex in Orlando (Disney effect) so that's why I didn't use it 

 

Trolls 3: (0.146x) ~$1.91M

Elemental: (0.760x) ~$1.82M

Last couple of hours have seen good walkups. It's conformably beating Argylle, Night Swim, and Mean Girls in Miami. 

[M37]

15 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Ghostbusters

 

Thursday 

 

T-13

SHOWI

Wouldn’t today be T-14?