The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[el sid]

I also can't complain about Furiosa's presales in my theaters, not at all. 

 

I don't know if I will be diligent enough to search for comps (movies where the tickets also went on sale 1-2 days ago, especially IMAX-related ones like Dune) because it's almost midnight here but it had ca. six hours ago already 1.138 sold tickets (in all of "my" 7 theaters) for May 23. 14 days left.

A promising start.

 

E.g. Civil War finally (= on Thursday of the release week for Thursday) had 1.357 sold tickets

and The Fall Guy finally had 1.071 sold tickets.

 

Edited May 9 by el sid

[ChipDerby]

My best guess based on everyone's numbers here would be a straight up $5.0 mil in previews, before adding in early shows.

[AniNate]

Skimmed through Thur/Fri and Valley View (Cleveland vicinity) has sold roughly 60 Furiosa tix so far while Tinseltown (Canton) has sold 40. I'm guessing the upfront audience does lean more toward the urban/cosmopolitan sensibilities

[MightyDargon]

7 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

My best guess based on everyone's numbers here would be a straight up $5.0 mil in previews, before adding in early shows.

Which movie are you talking about?

[crazymoviekid]

36 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Another low count.

 

 

Feel like this one is very expected and can't complain about. 

[Porthos]

Sorry fam, just too unavoidably busy in the 3pm-4:30pm corridor right now, so no T-0 update from me this time.  See ya at the next rodeo, though.

[ChipDerby]

17 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Which movie are you talking about?

Apes

[katnisscinnaplex]

8 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kingdom of Apes	T-0	Jax	5	68	111	391	10,722	3.65%
		Phx	7	61	153	467	9,274	5.04%
		Ral	8	61	67	330	7,986	4.13%
	Total		20	190	331	1,188	27,982	4.25%

 

T-0 (Thu) adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Thu) - 2.48x (5.83m)

 - M:I 7 (Thu) - .525x (3.36m)

 - F9 - .389x (2.92m)

 - Dune - .537x (2.85m)

 - NTTD (Thu) - .528x (2.85m)

 - TMNT (Thu) - 1.045x (4.26m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .407x (2.5m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .438x (3.95m)

 - Uncharted - .944x (3.58m)

 - Transformers (Thu) - .521x (3.73m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 4.06m

Growth model forecast - 3.36m

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Kingdom of Apes	117.18%	37.84%	22.65%	38.62%
Fall Guy	122.79%	32.09%	22.60%	48.30%
M:I 7	103.41%	34.50%	23.32%	48.85%
F9: The Fast Saga	111.12%	28.04%	17.08%	40.17%
Dune	87.62%	-	-	25.47%
No Time to Die	-	-	-	-
Turtles	111.73%	34.45%	25.57%	54.69%
Fantastic Beasts 3	55.62%	30.37%	30.83%	17.83%
Godzilla x Kong	112.13%	31.14%	25.23%	37.40%
Uncharted	86.09%	21.45%	24.11%	34.69%
Transformers 6	115.50%	29.21%	-	43.40%

 

Still pacing right along with GxK.  Expecting around 45% of whatever the previews actually were for that. 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kingdom of Apes	1-Hr	Jax	5	68	270	661	10,722	6.16%
		Phx	7	61	90	557	9,274	6.01%
		Ral	8	61	253	583	7,986	7.30%
	Total		20	190	613	1,801	27,982	6.44%

 

T-1 hr (Thu) adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Thu) - 2.23x (5.24m)

 - M:I 7 (Tue) - .57x (3.65m)

 - F9 - .47x (3.53m)

 - Dune - .655x (3.47m)

 - NTTD (Thu) - .659x (3.56m)

 - TMNT (Thu) - 1.15x (4.69m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .522x (3.21m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .465x (4.19m)

 - Uncharted - missed

 - Transformers (Thu) - .508x (3.63m)

All action - 4.16m

All pg-13 - 4.25m

All 3pm previews - 4.34m

All movies - 4.55m

 

Size adjusted comps - 4.24m

Growth model forecast - 4.04m

 

Something very strange is going on here with FIVE of my comps coming up around 3.5m-3.6m.  If it wasn't for that, I'd feel really good about 4.25m.  I'll still go with it, but with a word of caution that a pattern that strong is pretty convincing.

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Kingdom of Apes	165.63%	38.79%	32.77%	51.60%
Fall Guy	232.51%	32.92%	26.99%	68.68%
M:I 7	150.75%	34.95%	27.59%	39.44%
F9: The Fast Saga	121.73%	34.10%	21.05%	25.48%
Dune	82.48%	-	-	24.32%
No Time to Die	-	-	-	21.43%
Turtles	166.50%	34.35%	23.83%	37.82%
Fantastic Beasts 3	60.53%	-	-	17.94%
Godzilla x Kong	137.84%	39.37%	26.85%	42.83%
Transformers 6	185.67%	-	-	55.61%

 

[vafrow]

13 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, T-1 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA shows, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 230

New Sales: 62

Growth: 37%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 11.5

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 20/3

Early Evening: 168/7

Late Evening: 42/6

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 79/7

IMAX: 56/6

VIP: 84/3

 

 

Comps (excludes EA unless stated)

0.191x Dune 2 for $1.9M

1.554x GB:FE for $7.3M

0.348x GxK for $3.5M

0.546x HG: BoSS for $3.1M

 

Average: $4.0M

 

 It didn't quite get the jump it needed. Still, I think $4.0M for pure Thursday would be decent, combined with another $1M or so from EA.

 

 

 

Trying to measure walk ups today. It's challenging due to the staggered afternoon starts, but I grabbed some data in the afternoon and some now.

 

So far, a 77% increase from the start of the day. Not bad, but not a mass breakout.

 

One thing that I've been tracking, but not paying too much attention to, is that I find the lack of IMAX sales to be a little surprising. It's under 30% of sales, in a five theatre sample with two IMAX screens.

 

This isn't Dune or Avatar, but it's still a visual movie that has a strong critical reputation among film buffs. I would have thought it's grabbed more of it's audience from people to the largest screens.

 

It makes me wonder if it is grabbing a more general/family audience. And if so, maybe it has more potential to leg out a bit. Just a theory.

[Tinalera]

9 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Trying to measure walk ups today. It's challenging due to the staggered afternoon starts, but I grabbed some data in the afternoon and some now.

 

So far, a 77% increase from the start of the day. Not bad, but not a mass breakout.

 

One thing that I've been tracking, but not paying too much attention to, is that I find the lack of IMAX sales to be a little surprising. It's under 30% of sales, in a five theatre sample with two IMAX screens.

 

This isn't Dune or Avatar, but it's still a visual movie that has a strong critical reputation among film buffs. I would have thought it's grabbed more of it's audience from people to the largest screens.

 

It makes me wonder if it is grabbing a more general/family audience. And if so, maybe it has more potential to leg out a bit. Just a theory.

Have to wonder if the nice weather is having some effect. Where i am weve been having some summer weather of 20 plus most days, and a lot of people are out and about. We are getting into beginning of cottage opening season so have to wonder if thats having an effect. This indeed may be a leg it out more film if those reasons are part of things.

[TheFlatLannister]

21 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

FURIOSA

 

Thursday 

 

T-15 *First fewish hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
487	1240	92874	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-15

(1.195x) of Civil War $3.46M

(0.482x) of Ghostbusters $2.27M

(0.248x) of Dune 2 $2.31M

Comps average: $2.68M

 

Not seeing much of a breakout. Still pretty solid start to presales. 

FLORIDA 

 

FURIOSA

 

Thursday 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
497	1649	94881	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

409

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

10

 

COMPS

T-14

(1.428x) of Civil War $4.14M

(0.617x) of Ghostbusters $2.90M

(0.325x) of Dune 2 $3.03M

Comps average: $3.36M

 

Really strong day 2. The short presales is for sure a factor.  

[keysersoze123]

Apes is up to 70633/556039 1268483.31. Walkups look very good to me. Should cross my targets for sure. 

[vafrow]

52 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Have to wonder if the nice weather is having some effect. Where i am weve been having some summer weather of 20 plus most days, and a lot of people are out and about. We are getting into beginning of cottage opening season so have to wonder if thats having an effect. This indeed may be a leg it out more film if those reasons are part of things.

 

Weather has been good, but it's pretty standard for this time of the year, which usually sees a strong box office.

 

I think it's just a lacklustre product in the market.

 

I still go back to the amazement that all three of sports teams in Toronto are doing poorly or have their seasons done and it's still not seen any impact on the box office. The sports mood is about as bad as I can recall in recent history.

[Tinalera]

57 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Weather has been good, but it's pretty standard for this time of the year, which usually sees a strong box office.

 

I think it's just a lacklustre product in the market.

 

I still go back to the amazement that all three of sports teams in Toronto are doing poorly or have their seasons done and it's still not seen any impact on the box office. The sports mood is about as bad as I can recall in recent history.

I hadnt thought about the sports teams part-one would think theyd go to movies to get their minds off of it or whatever. Vancouver and Calgary when looking at Furiosa is along the lines for presales (Cal had poor sports showing while Van is in playoffs) but like nothing much. Be interesting to see if Furiosa is gaining any in Toronto when I do that count. 

[TheFlatLannister]

Planet of apes is having excellent walkups so far. Probably overindexing here, but all comps are well over $6M Thursday 

[abracadabra1998]

6 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Planet of apes is having excellent walkups so far. Probably overindexing here, but all comps are well over $6M Thursday 

Sacto strikes again, @Porthos teach us your ways! Your sample rocks  

[AniNate]

I'm gonna assume Cleveland will be underindexing tonight because of the Cavs

[TwoMisfits]

TMobile deal for May - $5 ticket to The Strangers Chapter 1 next Tuesday.  I do not see this moving the needle b/c A. I know next to nothing about this movie, and B. Part 1s/Chapter 1s are usually doomed to fail.  But now you know...

[VanillaSkies]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

TMobile deal for May - $5 ticket to The Strangers Chapter 1 next Tuesday.  I do not see this moving the needle b/c A. I know next to nothing about this movie, and B. Part 1s/Chapter 1s are usually doomed to fail.  But now you know...

This could be advantageous to this one actually. The original is a well loved horror film and there should be enough fans of it to be tempted by the $5 offer and good will from the original.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Planet of apes is having excellent walkups so far. Probably overindexing here, but all comps are well over $6M Thursday 

 

59 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Sacto strikes again, @Porthos teach us your ways! Your sample rocks  

 

 

(okay okay, not a bullseye [especially since I never made a "call"], but I think the gif works well enough if this really is 6m+ Thur)