The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[ringedmortality]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

Is Bikeriders supposed to be like a mainstream middlebrow movie or something? Jeff Nichols has not really given off that vibe in the past

 

He had a mainstream middlebrow movie with Loving, and from the festival reactions this had it is basically a very conventional movie.

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

 

FURIOSA

 

Thursday 

 

T-15 *First fewish hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
487	1240	92874	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-15

(1.195x) of Civil War $3.46M

(0.482x) of Ghostbusters $2.27M

(0.248x) of Dune 2 $2.31M

Comps average: $2.68M

 

Not seeing much of a breakout. Still pretty solid start to presales. 

[AniNate]

Probably is gonna be dependent on reviews to an extent

[Cmasterclay]

I've been expecting bad things for Furiosa and even I expected a very strong start to preview presales given the cinephile worship of the last one.

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

 

THE GARFIELD MOVIE

 

Thursday 

 

T-15 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
443	722	81975	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-15

(0.563x) of Kung Fu Panda 4 $2.14M

Comps average: $2.14M

[crazymoviekid]

23 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 19 Tickets
Theater 2: 21 Tickets

 

TFG: $7.38M
GxK: $5.97M 
Dune II: $3.33M
Aquaman 2: $4.39M
T:RotB: $4.22M
JWD: $2.73M

 

Good day. Comps nudging up to $4.5M-$5M.

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 36 Tickets

Theater 2: 35 Tickets

 

TFG: $19.27M

GxK: $9.15M 

Dune II: $8.34M

Aquaman 2: $15.26M

T:RotB: $9.57M

JWD: $3.95M

 

Bit of a wide range right now. Think it'll land closer in the middle. $13M for now.

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 29 Tickets

Theater 2: 29 Tickets

 

TFG: $8.19M

GxK: $6.04M 

Dune II: $4.11M

Aquaman 2: $5.55M

T:RotB: $4.84M

JWD: $3.45M

 

Continuing to go up. Bumping up to $5M-$5.5M

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 43 Tickets

Theater 2: 59 Tickets

 

TFG: $22.65M

GxK: $10.28M 

Dune II: $8.70M

Aquaman 2: $16.74M

T:RotB: $12.19M

JWD: $8.08M

 

Good day of sales. Nudging up to $14M for now. 

 

Feeling like Detective Pikachu, but slightly smaller. 

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (T-2):

Day: T-2, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters	172	168	726	25982	2.79
Wednesday May 8 EA: 19 theaters	23	80	591	5146	11.48
TOTALS:	195	248	1317	31128	4.23

 

Comps (Thursday only):

2x The Fall Guy (THU): $4.71 Million

0.71x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $3.34 Million (17 theaters)

0.9x Madame Web (OD): $5.46 Million (17 theaters)

1.12x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $5.06 Million (17 theaters)

0.29x FNAF: $2.94 Million (17 theaters)

0.4x Indy 5: $2.84 Million (17 theaters)

0.4x MI7 (TUE): $2.81 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $3.88 Million

 

Comps (EA only):

1.6x Fall Guy EA: $1.28 Million

2.14x Challengers EA: $1.18 Million

1.61x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare EA: $965k

1.23x Mean Girls EA: $800k (17 theaters)

0.71x MI7 EA: $1.42 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $1.13 Million

 

I do not think I will be able to give a T-1 hour for the EA tomorrow, so I am planting my flag at around $1.25 Million. In terms of screenings it is very similar to Fall Guy; Ungentlemanly did not have PLF, so ATP was a lot lower, and Mean Girls had considerably less screenings.

 

Despite EA continuing to draw sales, Thursday actually keeps rising against comps. I would not be surprised to see the average end up over 4. Good stuff!

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	174	232	958	26100	3.67

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		686	135	71.61
MTC1:		429	65	44.78
Alamo:		38	4	3.97
Other chains:		491	163	51.25

 

Comps (Thursday only):

1.86x The Fall Guy (THU): $4.36 Million

0.82x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $3.86 Million (17 theaters)

0.87x Madame Web (OD): $5.24 Million (17 theaters)

1.2x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $5.41 Million (17 theaters)

0.32x FNAF: $3.3 Million (17 theaters)

0.45x Indy 5: $3.24 Million (17 theaters)

0.41x MI7 (TUE): $2.84 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $4.04 Million

 

Very good pace, comps are a bit all over the place but I am still leaning towards that Fall Guy comp the most; more theaters, and the similar EA situations makes me think that the walk-up rate could be somewhat similar. Something in between the older crowd (MI7 and Indy) and the young blockbusters (Aquaman, Madame Web) sounds right too; I feel like this is riding that wave between appealing to older audiences that are fans of the IP while also looking like a fun immersive experience. Anyways, I'll stop rambling...

 

My final prediction is $4.25 Million, +/-0.25, and with my prediction for EA yesterday at $1.25 Million, I think they will report it at around $5.5 Million 

[Relevation]

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1)

05/09/24

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - 72 tickets sold

 

COMPS

0.20x of Dune: Part Two ($1.83M)

0.385x of Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire ($3.85M)

1.53x of Monkey Man ($2.14M)

AVERAGE: $2.61M

 

Well, Planet of the Apes clearly isn't a hot property in MN. Apes bombed badly here, selling worse than Spy x Family and Ordinary Angels, and failing to clear $4M against any serious comp. GxK probably closest to the mark, but my market blew way under what everyone else is seeing. Hence my prediction is significantly higher, to the tune of almost double what the comps say here. $5M THU and a $55M OW is where I'm thinking.

[keysersoze123]

Getting data is still PITA but I have early shows data. 

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes Early Shows Final

MTC1 - 33844/90634 698227.42 370 shows

MTC2 - 12160/28480 201434.46 173 shows

 

It seems all PLF and fairly wide. Thinking somewhere in 1.4/1.5m for early shows. 

[abracadabra1998]

Minnesota Previews:

 

Furiosa (T-15, Day 1):

Day: T-15	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	109	254	254	19652	1.29

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		226	226	88.98
MTC1:		148	148	58.27
Alamo:		49	49	19.29
Other chains:		57	57	22.44

 

Day 1 Comps:

0.83x GxK: $7.64 Million

0.61x Dune Part 2: $6.92 Million

1.25x BoSS: $7.19 Million

 

Reallyyyyyy good day 1 here, almost the opposite of Florida it seems lol. I want to note that: NO I do NOT think preview numbers will be that high; it's just highlighting the fact that this is likely a movie that will be running hot in my market, as cinephile blockbusters usually do. Next update tomorrow and I will have T-14 comps, which will be a lot lower due to the short release window.

[Issac Newton]

5 hours ago, misterpepp said:

Probably the last ticket date today:

 

Haikyu: The Dumpster Battle on sale May 10

 

I hope North America does not disappoint as China will surely deliver!

[keysersoze123]

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes MTC1 Previews(T-1) - 43412/556762 821726.82 3010 shows

 

Walkups today were really good for early shows and so I think its going to finish around 80K and 1.4m at MTC1 and I am expecting 30% or tad lower and so 4.7m Thursday and with early shows around 6.1/6.2m previews. That said its possible that studio would just report thursday 

[HummingLemon496]

8 hours ago, misterpepp said:

May 14

I was gonna ask "who cares about presales for an animated movie" but I remember last year when Spider-Verse tickets went on sale it was looking like $100M+ (though I guess being a superhero movie helps). . .

 

Though looking back in the thread some people were suggesting an Incredibles 2 level OW like what 🤣

 

Edit: It is kinda funny how an anti-Reddit user is liking my comment which links to a Reddit post which links back to BOT rather than just posting the BOT link haha (I did that on purpose)

 

Edited May 9 by HummingLemon496

[keysersoze123]

7 hours ago, misterpepp said:

 

May 14

Spider-verse could be a comp but that is still a SH based movie. I think @Porthos should have good comps with couple of previous Pixar sequels though its tricky making comps with pre COVID BO. That said even Lightyear wont be a bad comp though this should do way better than that. 

[Rorschach]

On 5/8/2024 at 12:03 AM, Rorschach said:

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - Tuesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

3 IMAX showings: 9/1,164

3 XD showings: 3/714

7 2D showings: 67/857

Total: 79/2,735 (2.9% sold) [+11]

 

Comp:

The Fall Guy: $5.3 mil

 

Friday:

4 IMAX showings: 34/1,552  

4 XD showings: 9/952

12 2D showings: 81/1,444

Total: 124/3,948 (3.1% sold) [+33]

 

Comp:

The Fall Guy: $16.5 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 203/6,683 (3% sold) [+44]

 

Comp:

The Fall Guy: $21.8 mil

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - Wednesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

3 IMAX showings: 14/1,164

3 XD showings: 9/714

7 2D showings: 78/857

Total: 101/2,735 (3.7% sold) [+22]

 

Comp:

The Fall Guy: $4.7 mil

 

Friday:

4 IMAX showings: 47/1,552  

4 XD showings: 13/952

12 2D showings: 109/1,444

Total: 169/3,948 (4.3% sold) [+45]

 

Comp:

The Fall Guy: $14.6 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 270/6,683 (4% sold) [+67]

 

Comp:

The Fall Guy: $19.4 mil

 

 

All three comps are roughly twice the number of tickets that The Fall Guy was at on this day last week. Mid-evening showtimes on both days are currently repping the most tickets sold. Will report the Thursday numbers tomorrow around 2 pm CST, an hour before the first showtime.

Edited May 9 by Rorschach

[lorddemaxus]

2 hours ago, Rorschach said:

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - Wednesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

3 IMAX showings: 14/1,164

3 XD showings: 9/714

7 2D showings: 78/857

Total: 101/2,735 (3.7% sold) [+22]

 

Comp:

The Fall Guy: $4.7 mil

 

Friday:

4 IMAX showings: 47/1,552  

4 XD showings: 13/952

12 2D showings: 109/1,444

Total: 169/3,948 (4.3% sold) [+45]

 

Comp:

The Fall Guy: $14.6 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 270/6,683 (4% sold) [+67]

 

Comp:

The Fall Guy: $19.4 mil

 

 

All three comps are roughly twice the number of tickets that The Fall Guy was at on this day last week. Mid-evening showtimes on both days are currently repping the most tickets sold. Will report the Thursday numbers tomorrow around 2 pm CST, an hour before the first showtime.

I guess I missed this because I haven't been looking at this thread properly for a while (until now cuz of the movie in your profile pic) but it's great to see that you are tracking again!

[AniNate]

2 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

I was gonna ask "who cares about presales for an animated movie" but I remember last year when Spider-Verse tickets went on sale it was looking like $100M+ (though I guess being a superhero movie helps). . .

 

Though looking back in the thread some people were suggesting an Incredibles 2 level OW like what 🤣

 

Edit: It is kinda funny how an anti-Reddit user is liking my comment which links to a Reddit post which links back to BOT rather than just posting the BOT link haha (I did that on purpose)

 

 

I do feel like it should have some decent presales given the solid online hype for it and its position as the first "true" blockbuster of the summer, but I'm not gonna panic if it doesn't. Maybe something on the level of IF's advance interest at least though.

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, T-2 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA shows, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 168

New Sales: 34

Growth: 25%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 8.4

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 12/3

Early Evening: 124/7

Late Evening: 32/6

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 65/7

IMAX: 45/6

VIP: 56/3

 

EA shows 

Sales: 117

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 5

New Sales: 31

 

Comps (excludes EA unless stated)

1.979x Fall Guy (both with EA and preview) for $6.2M

0.140x Dune 2 for $1.4M

1.697x GB:FE for $8.0M

0.338x GxK for $3.4M

0.460x HG: BoSS for $2.6M

 

Average: $4.3M

 

This is a pretty good day, and it's before the review drop.

 

There's lots of variability on the comps, so this could still end up anywhere, but it feels like with EA being strong, the total previews figure can probably get to above $5M.

 

 

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, T-1 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA shows, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 230

New Sales: 62

Growth: 37%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 11.5

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 20/3

Early Evening: 168/7

Late Evening: 42/6

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 79/7

IMAX: 56/6

VIP: 84/3

 

 

Comps (excludes EA unless stated)

0.191x Dune 2 for $1.9M

1.554x GB:FE for $7.3M

0.348x GxK for $3.5M

0.546x HG: BoSS for $3.1M

 

Average: $4.0M

 

 It didn't quite get the jump it needed. Still, I think $4.0M for pure Thursday would be decent, combined with another $1M or so from EA.

 

 

[Rorschach]

nvm

Edited May 9 by Rorschach

[Rorschach]

2 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

I guess I missed this because I haven't been looking at this thread properly for a while (until now cuz of the movie in your profile pic) but it's great to see that you are tracking again!

Appreciate it, man! I only just got back into doing this past week; I figured the beginning of the summer season would be a good re-entry point. I'm doing multiple weekdays now (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday afternoon/evening) as opposed to only Wednesday nights like I used to do, so I'm pretty much starting over from scratch with comps. But yeah, I remember having a lot of fun doing it 2-3 years ago and I'm very glad to be doing it again now!

Edited May 9 by Rorschach