The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[AniNate]

Seems like high 30mils is the reasonable opening weekend expectation for IF, assuming a preview/weekend split comparable to KFP4. That's also the proportion of France's opening to Elemental's.

[JimmyB]

20 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Seems like high 30mils is the reasonable opening weekend expectation for IF, assuming a preview/weekend split comparable to KFP4. That's also the proportion of France's opening to Elemental's.

Elemental or Free Guy openings of 28-29m seems more reasonable for an original movie with 2m'ish in previews.

[emoviefan]

17 minutes ago, JimmyB said:

Elemental or Free Guy openings of 28-29m seems more reasonable for an original movie with 2m'ish in previews.

Yeah nothing in the Presale reports around here is pointing to a high 30 opening for IF. It would be great it surprised and sales picked up and did but I think there is some wishful thinking going on here.

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, Relevation said:

Since IO2 and Bad Boys both start ticket sales this week, I’m gonna call my shot on where Thurs comps for all the June movies start off (not outright predictions, just where I think comps start off based on my overall expectations)

 

Bad Boys: Ride or Die - $5-6M Thu

The Watchers - $1.0-1.5M Thu

Inside Out 2 - $14-17M Thu

Horizon: An American Saga - Part 1 - $2-3M Thu

A Quiet Place: Day One - $4-5M Thu 

Inside out does $15M+ 

A quiet place does $7M

 

Have no clue about the others 

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Inside out does $15M+ 

A quiet place does $7M

 

Have no clue about the others 

 

AQPD1 being a prequel makes it a bit tricky.  On the one hand, it should be bit more action-y than the other two AQP films which might open up the potential audience a bit (more into the monster-verse/disaster/end of the world type crowds).  On the other hand, being dissimilar to the first two films might put up some headwinds.

 

Still, as a gut-check estimate, sounds about right.

 

(unfortunately for me -giant sadfleck gif goes HERE -)

[HummingLemon496]

If Inside Out 2 sales are on fire tomorrow then we all NEED to praise @TheFlatLannister (u/KingJonsnowIV) and @Relevation (u/RelevationAnimations) because they have been predicting Inside Out 2 to blow up for a long ass time

Edited May 14 by HummingLemon496

[HummingLemon496]

And by the way, early prediction (also known as an arbitrary guess) is. . .$16.0M previews for Inside Out 2

[Relevation]

21 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Inside out does $15M+ 

A quiet place does $7M

 

Have no clue about the others 

I think A Quiet Place hits $7M in the end, but horror movies are usually backloaded and especially since it’s kind of a monster movie, I think it’ll be more of a late pickup

 

Same thing for Bad Boys but to even more of an extent, I think that could easily be seeing $8M+ by the time T-0 walkups roll in

[YM!]

40 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Inside out does $15M+ 

A quiet place does $7M

 

Have no clue about the others 

I'm kind of iffy on going gangbusters for IO2 not just because of Pixar’s struggles but we don't really have a good comparison for it. It's too young skewing for Across/TLM, too old skewing for Minions or KFP, Lightyear started the weak before release and I have stipulations on using Elemental/Wish. 9-10m would be a great start.

Edited May 14 by YM!

[TheFlatLannister]

55 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

If Inside Out 2 sales are on fire tomorrow then we all NEED to praise @TheFlatLannister (u/KingJonsnowIV) and @Relevation (u/RelevationAnimations) because they have been predicting Inside Out 2 to blow up for a long ass time

WAIT THEY START TOMORROW???

I have no Florida comps for it, might have to pull up my old Orlando sheets just for this 

[HummingLemon496]

2 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

WAIT THEY START TOMORROW???

I have no Florida comps for it, might have to pull up my old Orlando sheets just for this 

Yes. . .

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Bad Boys: Ride or Die T-25: 56.77% Awareness, 60.35% Interest

Longlegs T-60: 12.11% Awareness, 43.82% Interest

The Crow T-102: 32.44% Awareness, 43.64% Interest

Moana 2 T-198: 44.1% Awareness, 53.01% Interest

Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim T-214: 16.06% Awareness, 42.38% Interest

 

Back to Black T-4: 35% Awareness, 40.86% Interest

Final Awareness: 41% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 28% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Low Interest: 35% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

 

IF T-4: 56.3% Awareness, 52.09% Interest

Final Awareness: 92% chance of 20M, 72% chance of 30M, 36% chance of 40M, 24% chance of 50M, 16% chance of 60M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M

Final Interest: 78% chance of 20M, 59% chance of 30M, 46% chance of 40M, 32% chance of 50M, 24% chance of 60M

Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 50M, 60% chance of 90M, 40% chance of 100M

 

The Strangers: Chapter 1 T-4: 32.86% Awareness, 48.81% Interest

Final Awareness: 41% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 43% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 42% chance of 10M, 10% chance of 20M

 

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga T-11: 39.21% Awareness, 40.77% Interest

Final Awareness: 41% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M, 10% chance of 30M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 30M

 

The Garfield Movie T-11: 52.94% Awareness, 48.95% Interest

Final Awareness: 92% chance of 20M, 72% chance of 30M, 36% chance of 40M, 24% chance of 50M, 16% chance of 60M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M

Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M, 10% chance of 30M, 4% chance of 70M

Animation/Family Interest: 80% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 20M, 20% chance of 20M, 10% chance of 70M

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

IF (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	95	36	130	14659	0.89

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		78	25	60
MTC1:		85	32	65.38
Alamo:		8	0	6.15
Other chains:		37	4	28.46

 

Comps:

0.33x Kung Fu Panda 4: $1.27 Million (17 theaters)

0.31x Wonka: $1.1 Million (17 theaters)

0.45x Wish (TUE): $810k (17 theaters)

0.93x Trolls (THU): $1.21 Million (17 theaters)

0.37x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $1.14 Million

 

Average: $1.11 Million

 

Hoping for some real acceleration this last week but not looking good.

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

IF (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	114	29	159	16974	0.94

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		96	18	60.38
MTC1:		102	17	64.15
Alamo:		10	2	6.29
Other chains:		47	10	29.56

 

Comps:

0.34x Kung Fu Panda 4: $1.28 Million (17 theaters)

0.84x Migration: $1.26 Million (17 theaters)

0.33x Wonka: $1.15 Million (17 theaters)

Wish (TUE): Missed

0.97x Trolls (THU): $1.26 Million (17 theaters)

0.38x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $1.18 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $1.23 Million

 

My model has been pretty good for animated/family releases in the past, hence why every comp is so eerily similar. Still, looking at others' numbers and how much lower mine are, I am wondering if summer break might be something to consider here; from what I am aware, here in Minnesota most school districts don't start break until June. To those tracking this ( @katnisscinnaplex @TheFlatLannister) do y'all know what your school districts' summer breaks are like? Wondering if it's affecting numbers here.

 

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minnesota Previews:

 

Back to Black (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 20 theaters	40	18	18	3350	0.54
Saturday May 15 EA: 2 theaters	2	31	31	380	8.16
TOTALS:	42	49	49	3730	1.31

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		16	16	88.89
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		2	2	11.11

 

Comps (THU + EA):

0.41x Challengers (THU): $655k

0.11x Civil War (THU): $320k

0.77x Drive-Away Dolls: $270k (17 theaters)

0.47x Iron Claw: $315k (17 theaters)

 

Average: $390k

 

Yikes bikes

 

The Strangers Chapter 1 (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 21 theaters	40	66	66	3764	1.75

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		50	50	75.76
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		16	16	24.24

 

Comps:

0.84x Abigail: $835k

1.65x First Omen: $1.2 Million

1.58x Immaculate: $870k

0.61x Thanksgiving: $605k

0.29x Exorcist Believer: $835k

0.46x Saw X: $925k

0.5x Nun II: $1.56 Million

 

Average: $975k

 

Trying to keep to R-rated movies only since I have noticed those behaving quite differently than PG-13. Looks a lot less thrilling than @katnisscinnaplex numbers  we shall see what happens

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Back to Black (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 20 theaters	39	2	20	3381	0.59
Saturday May 15 EA: 2 theaters	2	3	34	380	8.95
TOTALS:	41	5	54	3761	1.44

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		18	2	90
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		2	0	10

 

Comps (THU + EA):

Challengers (THU): Missed

0.1x Civil War (THU): $300k

0.68x Drive-Away Dolls: $240k (17 theaters)

0.71x Ferrari: $305k (17 theaters)

0.44x Iron Claw: $295k (17 theaters)

 

Average: $285k

 

The Strangers Chapter 1 (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 22 theaters	52	4	70	4951	1.41

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		54	4	77.14
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		16	0	22.86

 

Comps:

0.68x Abigail: $680k

1.67x First Omen: $1.21 Million

1.24x Immaculate: $685k (17 theaters)

0.59x Thanksgiving: $590k (17 theaters)

Exorcist Believer: Missed

0.38x Saw X: $760k (17 theaters)

0.44x Nun II: $1.36 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $880k

 

Not a good update at all but I am wondering about the summer break deal here as well. For Back to Black it shouldn't affect it much I would think

[emoviefan]

38 minutes ago, Eric the Ape said:

Quorum Updates

Bad Boys: Ride or Die T-25: 56.77% Awareness, 60.35% Interest

Longlegs T-60: 12.11% Awareness, 43.82% Interest

The Crow T-102: 32.44% Awareness, 43.64% Interest

Moana 2 T-198: 44.1% Awareness, 53.01% Interest

Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim T-214: 16.06% Awareness, 42.38% Interest

 

Back to Black T-4: 35% Awareness, 40.86% Interest

Final Awareness: 41% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 28% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Low Interest: 35% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

 

IF T-4: 56.3% Awareness, 52.09% Interest

Final Awareness: 92% chance of 20M, 72% chance of 30M, 36% chance of 40M, 24% chance of 50M, 16% chance of 60M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M

Final Interest: 78% chance of 20M, 59% chance of 30M, 46% chance of 40M, 32% chance of 50M, 24% chance of 60M

Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 50M, 60% chance of 90M, 40% chance of 100M

 

The Strangers: Chapter 1 T-4: 32.86% Awareness, 48.81% Interest

Final Awareness: 41% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 43% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 42% chance of 10M, 10% chance of 20M

 

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga T-11: 39.21% Awareness, 40.77% Interest

Final Awareness: 41% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M, 10% chance of 30M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 30M

 

The Garfield Movie T-11: 52.94% Awareness, 48.95% Interest

Final Awareness: 92% chance of 20M, 72% chance of 30M, 36% chance of 40M, 24% chance of 50M, 16% chance of 60M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M

Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M, 10% chance of 30M, 4% chance of 70M

Animation/Family Interest: 80% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 20M, 20% chance of 20M, 10% chance of 70M

Yeah really not taking those Furiosa numbers seriously at all right now. 

[keysersoze123]

Garfield MTC1

Early Shows - 7402/10927 99325.64 138 shows

Previews - 3301/316926 46600.65 1987 shows

 

Early shows are regular digital shows at 1PM this sunday. So ATP will be very low. I think 500k ish at best. Preview let us see how things go in the final week. Presales at this point are almost non existent. 

 

@charlie Jatinder

[TheFlatLannister]

37 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

IF (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	114	29	159	16974	0.94

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		96	18	60.38
MTC1:		102	17	64.15
Alamo:		10	2	6.29
Other chains:		47	10	29.56

 

Comps:

0.34x Kung Fu Panda 4: $1.28 Million (17 theaters)

0.84x Migration: $1.26 Million (17 theaters)

0.33x Wonka: $1.15 Million (17 theaters)

Wish (TUE): Missed

0.97x Trolls (THU): $1.26 Million (17 theaters)

0.38x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $1.18 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $1.23 Million

 

My model has been pretty good for animated/family releases in the past, hence why every comp is so eerily similar. Still, looking at others' numbers and how much lower mine are, I am wondering if summer break might be something to consider here; from what I am aware, here in Minnesota most school districts don't start break until June. To those tracking this ( @katnisscinnaplex @TheFlatLannister) do y'all know what your school districts' summer breaks are like? Wondering if it's affecting numbers here.

 

Summer break doesn't start in many districts in Florida until the last week of May

[charlie Jatinder]

54 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Garfield MTC1

Early Shows - 7402/10927 99325.64 138 shows

Previews - 3301/316926 46600.65 1987 shows

 

Early shows are regular digital shows at 1PM this sunday. So ATP will be very low. I think 500k ish at best. Preview let us see how things go in the final week. Presales at this point are almost non existent. 

 

@charlie Jatinder

Can you check Friday. That is what I am more in need of.

[keysersoze123]

16 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Can you check Friday. That is what I am more in need of.

That will have way more shows. Will try tomorrow. 

[Rorschach]

IF - Monday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

1 XD showing: 2/238

5 2D showings: 38/438

Total: 40/676 (5.9% sold)

 

Friday:

5 XD showings: 19/1,175

11 2D showings: 35/1,060

Total: 54/2,235 (2.4% sold)

Thurs + Fri: 94/2,911 (2.9% sold)

 

No comps for this one, but should be useful when I track Garfield next week.

 

 

The Strangers: Chapter 1 - Monday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

5 2D showings: 8/593 (1.3% sold)

 

Comp:

Tarot: $477k

 

Friday:

10 2D showings: 23/952 (2.4% sold)

 

Comp: 

Tarot: $6.03 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 31/1,545 (2% sold)

 

Comp: 

Tarot: $4.16 mil

 

Tarot had more tickets sold for Thursday compared to its Friday showings when I checked the Monday before it came out; hence, why the comps are so all over the place at the moment. The Thurs + Fri comp does appear to be a reasonable middle ground.

 

Also, decided not to cover Back to Black cause meh, not interested (though, judging by the fact that there are zero tickets sold on Thursday and only four on Friday, I don't think I'll be missing much).