The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

IF, T-4 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 12

New Sales: 4

Growth: 50%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.0

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 12/7

Late Evening: 0/5

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 6/6

Dolby: 0/4

VIP: 6/2

 

Comps

0.167x Wonka for $0.6M

0.059x KFP4 for $0.2M

 

Average: $0.4M

 

Some marginal movement, but we're running out of time for this. 

 

At this stage, I expect my market is an anomaly, but I still hope and expect it will close the gap in the final few days.

 

IF, T-3 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 19

New Sales: 7

Growth: 58%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.6

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 15/7

Late Evening: 4/5

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 7/6

Dolby: 4/4

VIP: 8/2

 

Comps

0.211x Wonka for $0.7M

0.067x KFP4 for $0.3M

 

Average: $0.5M

 

It's going up, but slowly.

 

The thing that hit me looking at the numbers is that the most popular format so far is the VIP theatres, which are 19+.

 

With such low sales, you can't read too much into anything, but it kind of speaks to how this isn't grabbing the family crowd. 

[AniNate]

Inside Out 2 tickets officially on sale

 

 

Edited May 14 by AniNate

[justnumbers]

Idk what yall expecting from the start but from the comments I saw earlier...I would lower expectations.

[cannastop]

4 minutes ago, justnumbers said:

Idk what yall expecting from the start but from the comments I saw earlier...I would lower expectations.

What movie are you talking about 

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, justnumbers said:

Idk what yall expecting from the start but from the comments I saw earlier...I would lower expectations.

In fairness it's only been an hour but yeah sales are softer than I expected. However, it is a month out and will largely skew more towards kids than say TLM/Across so wasn't expecting a blitz like them

[crazymoviekid]

IF:

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 2 Tickets

Theater 2: 6 Tickets

 

KFP4: $1.69M

Migration: $1.09M

Wonka: $1.65M

Elemental: $.71M

Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile: $4.60M

 

Wide bunch but live action, PG comps are hard to come by. Definitely looking around $1.75M for now. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 5/13/2024 at 7:37 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Back to Black	T-3	Jax	5	11	1	5	986	0.51%
		Phx	6	15	6	25	1,508	1.66%
		Ral	7	14	2	16	1,316	1.22%
	Total		18	40	9	46	3,810	1.21%
Back to Black (EA)	T-2	Jax	2	2	3	13	395	3.29%
		Phx	1	1	1	11	208	5.29%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	0	0.00%
	Total		4	4	4	24	603	3.98%
IF	T-3	Jax	5	22	11	105	3,641	2.88%
		Phx	7	27	19	80	4,077	1.96%
		Ral	8	33	6	51	4,751	1.07%
	Total		20	82	36	236	12,469	1.89%
The Strangers	T-3	Jax	5	11	11	34	1,110	3.06%
		Phx	6	13	19	50	1,530	3.27%
		Ral	7	14	5	38	1,368	2.78%
	Total		18	38	35	122	4,008	3.04%

*New sales since Saturday

 

IF T-3 adjusted comps (comps with EA)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .198x (1.27m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .311x (963k)

 - TMNT (Total) - .158x (777k)

 - Fall Guy (Total) - .652x (1.68m)

 - Lightyear (Total) - .285x (1.28m)

 

IF T-3 adjusted comps (no EA)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu) - .267x (1.36m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Thu) - .475x (1.38m)

 - TMNT (Thu) - .439x (1.49m)

 - Kung Fu Panda 4 - .481x (1.61m)

 - Fall Guy (Thu) - 1.1x (2.12m)

 - Lightyear (Thu) - .325x (1.3m)

 - Elemental - .811x (1.71m)

 - Peter Rabbit 2 - 2.713x (2.59m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.91m

 

Strangers T-3 adjusted comps

 - Insidious 5 - .377x (1.88m)

 - Talk to Me - 1.2x (1.49m)

 - Abigail - 1.65x (1.65m)

 - Evil Dead Rise - missed

 - Candyman - .772x (1.56m)

 - Black Phone (Thu) - missed

 - Beast - 1.54x (1.46m)

 - Nun II - .488x (1.24m)

 - Smile (Thu) - missed

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.53m

 

Back to Black (Total) T-3 adjusted comps

 - Respect - 1.094x (753k)

 - I Wanna Dance - .35x (262k)

 - House of Gucci - .318x (438k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Back to Black	T-2	Jax	5	11	0	5	986	0.51%
		Phx	6	15	5	30	1,508	1.99%
		Ral	7	14	4	20	1,316	1.52%
	Total		18	40	9	55	3,810	1.44%
Back to Black (EA)	T-1	Jax	2	2	0	13	395	3.29%
		Phx	1	1	0	11	208	5.29%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	0	0.00%
	Total		4	4	0	24	603	3.98%
IF	T-2	Jax	5	30	22	127	4,112	3.09%
		Phx	7	34	16	96	4,747	2.02%
		Ral	8	36	21	72	4,933	1.46%
	Total		20	100	59	295	13,792	2.14%
The Strangers	T-2	Jax	5	12	7	41	1,161	3.53%
		Phx	6	17	12	62	1,768	3.51%
		Ral	7	17	8	46	1,536	2.99%
	Total		18	46	27	149	4,465	3.34%

 

IF T-2 adjusted comps (comps with EA)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .203x (1.3m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .322x (997k)

 - TMNT (Total) - .189x (931k)

 - Fall Guy (Total) - .73x (1.89m)

 - Lightyear (Total) - .281x (1.27m)

 

IF T-2 adjusted comps (no EA)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu) - .275x (1.4m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Thu) - .476x (1.38m)

 - TMNT (Thu) - .502x (1.7m)

 - Kung Fu Panda 4 - .498x (1.67m)

 - Fall Guy (Thu) - 1.214x (2.34m)

 - Lightyear (Thu) - .323x (1.3m)

 - Elemental - .806x (1.7m)

 - Peter Rabbit 2 - 2.837x (2.71m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.98m

 

Thinking somewhere in the 1.2m-1.5m range despite a couple of higher comps

 

Strangers T-2 adjusted comps

 - Insidious 5 - .366x (1.83m)

 - Talk to Me - 1.08x (1.34m)

 - Abigail - 1.62x (1.62m)

 - Evil Dead Rise - missed

 - Candyman - .73x (1.47m)

 - Black Phone (Thu) - .466x (1.24m)

 - Beast - 1.32x (1.25m)

 - Nun II - .47x (1.19m)

 - Smile (Thu) - missed

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.4m

 

We could have a preview battle on our hands!

 

Back to Black (Total) T-2 adjusted comps

 - Respect - 1.113x (767k)

 - I Wanna Dance - .3x (224k)

 - House of Gucci - .257x (355k)

 

Back to Black will not be participating in the battle.

[katnisscinnaplex]

11 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

My model has been pretty good for animated/family releases in the past, hence why every comp is so eerily similar. Still, looking at others' numbers and how much lower mine are, I am wondering if summer break might be something to consider here; from what I am aware, here in Minnesota most school districts don't start break until June. To those tracking this ( @katnisscinnaplex @TheFlatLannister) do y'all know what your school districts' summer breaks are like? Wondering if it's affecting numbers here.

Think my comps are converging toward yours as well.  Looks like Raleigh and Phoenix don't get out until June as well, and Jacksonville might be 5/31?   I don't live in any of these places and am...well removed from knowing things about school.  That's what I could find from searching though

[crazymoviekid]

The Strangers: Chapter 1

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 5 Tickets

Theater 2: 3 Tickets

 

Tarot: $.95M

Imaginary: $.53M

Night Swim: $2.90M

Pope's Exorcist: $.52M

 

Weird comps. Let's go for $.5M-$.75M.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 5/13/2024 at 8:11 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

 

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Furiosa	T-10	Jax	6	53	12	76	8,801	0.86%
		Phx	6	27	13	72	5,173	1.39%
		Ral	8	50	19	84	6,718	1.25%
	Total		20	130	44	232	20,692	1.12%
Garfield	T-10	Jax	5	30	4	14	3,091	0.45%
		Phx	6	34	4	26	5,918	0.44%
		Ral	7	36	3	33	4,949	0.67%
	Total		18	100	11	73	13,958	0.52%
Garfield (EA)	T-6	Jax	2	2	13	58	173	33.53%
		Phx	1	1	3	43	49	87.76%
		Ral	1	1	18	31	73	42.47%
	Total		4	4	34	132	295	44.75%

*New sales since Saturday

 

Garfield (Total) T-10 adjusted comps

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .365x (2.62m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .614x (2.13m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .343x (1.92m)

 - Elemental - missed

 - Kung Fu Panda 2 - .762x (2.9m)

 - IF - 1.475x

 

Furiosa T-10 adjusted comps

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .882x (4.15m)

 - Suicide Squad - .768x (3.34m)

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.61x (3.8m)

 - John Wick 4 - .236x (2.1m)

 - Equalizer 3 - 1.693x (6.44m)

 - F9 - .287x (2.16m)

 - No Time to Die (Total) - .38x (2.48m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Furiosa	T-9	Jax	6	53	13	89	8,801	1.01%
		Phx	6	27	7	79	5,173	1.53%
		Ral	8	50	2	86	6,718	1.28%
	Total		20	130	22	254	20,692	1.23%
Garfield	T-9	Jax	5	30	5	19	3,091	0.61%
		Phx	6	35	5	31	6,024	0.51%
		Ral	7	36	4	37	4,949	0.75%
	Total		18	101	14	87	14,064	0.62%
Garfield (EA)	T-5	Jax	2	2	12	70	173	40.46%
		Phx	1	1	0	43	49	87.76%
		Ral	1	1	1	32	73	43.84%
	Total		4	4	13	145	295	49.15%

 

Garfield (Total) T-9 adjusted comps

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .37x (2.65m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .619x (2.15m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .362x (2.03m)

 - Elemental - missed

 - Kung Fu Panda 2 - .85x (3.23m)

 - IF - 1.589x

 

Furiosa T-9 adjusted comps

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .833x (3.92m)

 - Suicide Squad - .804x (3.49m)

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.728x (4.08m)

 - John Wick 4 - .243x (2.16m)

 - Equalizer 3 - 1.649x (6.27m)

 - F9 - .294x (2.21m)

 - No Time to Die (Total) - .37x (2.43m)

[crazymoviekid]

Back to Black 

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 3 Tickets 
Theater 2: 3 Tickets

 

MBFGW3: $.25M
Whitney Houston: $.44M
Downton Abbey 2: $.15M

 

Not great. Let's say $.3M.

[keysersoze123]

11 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Can you check Friday. That is what I am more in need of.

Garfield MTC1 Friday - 3532/441017 49878.14 2731 shows

 

Meh. We have to wait until next week to gauge where its going to finish. It has very low ATP as well and actual would be even lower as its going to see tons of kids tickets. 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Garfield MTC1 Friday - 3532/441017 49878.14 2731 shows

 

Meh. We have to wait until next week to gauge where its going to finish. It has very low ATP as well and actual would be even lower as its going to see tons of kids tickets. 

Thanks. You know the reason why I was asking.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

Thanks. You know the reason why I was asking.

yah. its definitely weaker than even Elemental. That said these movies tend to finish strong and so I am not  writing it off so early. Just that the long PS window is irrelevant for them. They could rather start presales like a week before release and it would be all the same. 

[Grand Cine]

So 25 millions for OW maybe ? You have also data for Furiosa ? Because of Cannes Premiere this week he could have a boost @keysersoze123

[jeffthehat]

23 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

IF T-3

Sales	Seats	Shows
333	12859	77

Comps (Thu only)

0.24x Ghostbusters FE T-3 = $1.1m

0.21x Godzilla x Kong NE T-3 = $2.1m

0.57x Kung Fu Panda 4 T-3 = $2.2m

3.40x Lisa Frankenstein T-3 = $2.4m

 

AVG = $1.95m

 

Indiana

IF T-2

Sales	Seats	Shows
425	15255	94

Comps 

0.27x Ghostbusters FE T-2 = $1.3m

0.22x Godzilla x Kong NE T-2 = $2.2m

0.72x Kung Fu Panda 4 T-2 = $2.7m

 

AVG = $2.07m

Edited May 14 by jeffthehat

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, YM! said:

In fairness it's only been an hour but yeah sales are softer than I expected. However, it is a month out and will largely skew more towards kids than say TLM/Across so wasn't expecting a blitz like them

 

For the record, I'm kinda shocked at the opening set from my Cinemarks...

 

2 screens (1 PLF, 1 not) and 6 showings at my PLF 14 for Thursday (and 11 showings on the same screens once it runs full day - 7 PLF b/c 1 is 3d on the reg screen, 4 not)...

 

3 screens (.75 3d, 2.25 not) and 9 showings at the non-PLF 12 for Thursday (and 12 showings on 2.25 screens once it runs full day)...

 

So, 2 and 2.25 screens for the weekend presale sets...

 

Disney must be charging a huge % for themselves b/c this is an Elemental opening set at my PLF...a little more generous for Thursday at my non-PLF, but then they too drop to an Elemental opening set after the adult Disney base Thursday rush...

 

[el sid]

The Strangers in detail: It had yesterday for Thursday 215 sold tickets in 6 theaters (so far no shows in the AMC in Texas). Best sales in LA followed by NY. 

 

Comps (all counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday): Thanksgiving (1M from previews) had 184 sold tickets = 1.15M.

The Invitation (775k) had 96 = 1.75M.

Abigail (1M) had 171 = 1.25M.

Tarot (715k) had 97 = 1.6M. 

Prey for the Devil (660k) had 115 = 1.25M.

And The Forever Purge (1.3M) had 104 = 2.7M.

 

Average: 1.6M. 

 

From what I saw, it had an ok jump till today but the jump till Wednesday will be way more important. But so far, decent presales.

[TwoMisfits]

If Garfield and Inside Out disappoint after Fall Guys' disappointment, this will be the summer of the 13-45 male, so I'm gonna change all my predictions to movies that skew 1st to them for being something that might disappoint, but not wildly disappoint...and ultimately movies that will win the summer.

 

DM4 and Deadpool 3 - maybe I was too hasty ruling you out for yearly winner if women and kids (and effectively a lot of families) have abandoned full price movie going...

 

Movies that have done well this year and broken $100M DOM...

Dune 2

Godzilla X Kong

KFP 4

Ghostbusters

 

What do all have in common - a heavy male 13-45 interest base...

 

 

[keysersoze123]

IF MTC1 

Previews(T-3) - 12326/269912 218037.48 1622 shows
Friday - 15645/592880 252990.57 3485 shows

 

Previews is from late night yesterday and Friday is as of this morning. I would say it should hit 2m previews or even more if walkups are strong. OW probably in mid to high 20s for now. Its Friday sales are not that much higher than thursday for crazy IM like say Panda 4.