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Shawn Robbins

The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

By Shawn Robbins, in Box Office Discussion

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Posted by katnisscinnaplex,

Presales Tracking Information   I guess this is as good of a time as any to share this sheet I've been putting together for the past few weeks.  It's a table of movies from the past few years with relevant pre-sales information (release date, sales date, sales window, previews gross, etc.)  @datpepper and I will try to keep it updated when ticket sales dates are announced for upcoming films to make those easier to find.     There are a few gaps in the sheet where I couldn't f

Pre Sale Data Google Doc

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Posted by XXR & Friends,

I’m sure I’ve done enough “reminding” at this point that this is the tracking thread and not a discussion thread. Take your predictions and commentary elsewhere. No more warnings on this subject.
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Joyous Legion Global Phenomenon

Joyous Legion

Posted
Posted

Alright, fine then

T-65

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix

Thursday Preview Gross Range

$28.00

$29.50

$31.00

$32.50

$34.00

$35.50

$37.00

$38.50

$40.00

Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)

4.875

$136.50

$143.81

$151.13

$158.44

$165.75

$173.06

$180.38

$187.69

$195.00

4.95

$138.60

$146.03

$153.45

$160.88

$168.30

$175.73

$183.15

$190.58

$198.00

5.025

$140.70

$148.24

$155.78

$163.31

$170.85

$178.39

$185.93

$193.46

$201.00

5.1

$142.80

$150.45

$158.10

$165.75

$173.40

$181.05

$188.70

$196.35

$204.00

5.175

$144.90

$152.66

$160.43

$168.19

$175.95

$183.71

$191.48

$199.24

$207.00

5.25

$147.00

$154.88

$162.75

$170.63

$178.50

$186.38

$194.25

$202.13

$210.00

5.325

$149.10

$157.09

$165.08

$173.06

$181.05

$189.04

$197.03

$205.01

$213.00

5.4

$151.20

$159.30

$167.40

$175.50

$183.60

$191.70

$199.80

$207.90

$216.00

5.475

$153.30

$161.51

$169.73

$177.94

$186.15

$194.36

$202.58

$210.79

$219.00

 

 

I think it will probably hit at least the medium green region but leaving very wide uncertainty for now to respect being t-65

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Eric the Minion Global Phenomenon

Eric the Minion

Posted
Posted

Quorum Updates

Inside Out 2 T-23: 57.44% Awareness, 54.33% Interest

Despicable Me 4 T-42: 57.77% Awareness, 56.94% Interest

Maxxxine T-44: 16.51% Awareness, 34.91% Interest

Borderlands T-79: 29.19% Awareness, 44.01% Interest

Cuckoo T-79: 12.07% Awareness, 39.91% Interest

 

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga T-2: 44.72% Awareness, 44.5% Interest

Final Awareness: 46% chance of 20M, 25% chance of 30M, 16% chance of 40M, 9% chance of 70M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M, 9% chance of 30M, 4% chance of 70M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 30M

 

The Garfield Movie T-2: 58.61% Awareness, 49.45% Interest

Final Awareness: 92% chance of 20M, 73% chance of 30M, 35% chance of 40M, 23% chance of 50M, 15% chance of 60M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M, 9% chance of 30M, 4% chance of 70M

Animation/Family Interest: 80% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 20M, 20% chance of 20M, 10% chance of 70M

 

Sight T-2: 13.22% Awareness, 29.12% Interest

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 0% chance of 10M 

Low Interest: 0% chance of 20M

 

The Bikeriders T-30: 15.83% Awareness, 33.5% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 12% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 33% chance of 10M 

Low Interest: 27% chance of 10M

 

A Quiet Place: Day One T-37: 34.27% Awareness, 50.36% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 82% chance of 10M, 54% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M, 12% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 89% chance of 10M, 55% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M, 11% chance of 40M

Final Interest: 94% chance of 10M, 86% chance of 20M, 77% chance of 30M, 67% chance of 40M

Horror Interest: 80% chance of 10M, 40% chance of 30M, 20% chance of 40M

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Flip Box Office Gold

Flip

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Legion Again said:

Alright, fine then

T-65

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix

Thursday Preview Gross Range

$28.00

$29.50

$31.00

$32.50

$34.00

$35.50

$37.00

$38.50

$40.00

Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)

4.875

$136.50

$143.81

$151.13

$158.44

$165.75

$173.06

$180.38

$187.69

$195.00

4.95

$138.60

$146.03

$153.45

$160.88

$168.30

$175.73

$183.15

$190.58

$198.00

5.025

$140.70

$148.24

$155.78

$163.31

$170.85

$178.39

$185.93

$193.46

$201.00

5.1

$142.80

$150.45

$158.10

$165.75

$173.40

$181.05

$188.70

$196.35

$204.00

5.175

$144.90

$152.66

$160.43

$168.19

$175.95

$183.71

$191.48

$199.24

$207.00

5.25

$147.00

$154.88

$162.75

$170.63

$178.50

$186.38

$194.25

$202.13

$210.00

5.325

$149.10

$157.09

$165.08

$173.06

$181.05

$189.04

$197.03

$205.01

$213.00

5.4

$151.20

$159.30

$167.40

$175.50

$183.60

$191.70

$199.80

$207.90

$216.00

5.475

$153.30

$161.51

$169.73

$177.94

$186.15

$194.36

$202.58

$210.79

$219.00

 

 

I think it will probably hit at least the medium green region but leaving very wide uncertainty for now to respect being t-65

Should widen IM range to at least 5.75 and move the top end of previews down, I can’t see 40m being plausible 

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marveldcfox Box Office Gold

marveldcfox

Posted
Posted

How did Shawn levy go from Pink Panther to this big time director/producer in hollywood? Looking at his resume, he has made some stinkers, but all his movies have made money in one way or another. This is going to be his biggest blockbuster ever. Reviews wise, I am expecting 40-70% on RT. 

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Mojoguy Global Phenomenon

Mojoguy

Posted
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

How did Shawn levy go from Pink Panther to this big time director/producer in hollywood? Looking at his resume, he has made some stinkers, but all his movies have made money in one way or another. This is going to be his biggest blockbuster ever. Reviews wise, I am expecting 40-70% on RT. 

Free Guy mainly. It was Levy's first movie in 7 years, and it did well while released during the 2nd year of the pandemic while nearly everything was bombing. It also stared Ryan Reynolds, and I'm sure Ryan liked Levy enough to get him for DP3.

 

Not bad for the guy mainly known for directing those Night at the Museum films.

 

Edited by Mojoguy
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ringedmortality Box Office Gold

ringedmortality

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Free Guy mainly. It was Levy's first movie in 7 years, and it did well while released during the 2nd year of the pandemic while nearly everything was bombing. It also stared Ryan Reynolds, and I'm sure Ryan liked Levy enough to get him for DP3.

 

Not bad for the guy mainly known for directing those Night at the Museum films.

 

 

Night at the Museum and Real Steele were crowd-pleaser, but yeah the duo of Free Guy and Adam Project basically made him Reynolds's yes man much like Johnson's relationship with Jaume Collet-Serra

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HummingLemon496 Box Office Gold

HummingLemon496

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Free Guy mainly. It was Levy's first movie in 7 years, and it did well while released during the 2nd year of the pandemic while nearly everything was bombing. It also stared Ryan Reynolds, and I'm sure Ryan liked Levy enough to get him for DP3.

 

Not bad for the guy mainly known for directing those Night at the Museum films.

 

Yeah Free Guy did really well in the context of the pandemic, basically doubled the movie from previous weekend

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HummingLemon496 Box Office Gold

HummingLemon496

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Legion Again said:

Alright, fine then

T-65

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix

Thursday Preview Gross Range

$28.00

$29.50

$31.00

$32.50

$34.00

$35.50

$37.00

$38.50

$40.00

Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)

4.875

$136.50

$143.81

$151.13

$158.44

$165.75

$173.06

$180.38

$187.69

$195.00

4.95

$138.60

$146.03

$153.45

$160.88

$168.30

$175.73

$183.15

$190.58

$198.00

5.025

$140.70

$148.24

$155.78

$163.31

$170.85

$178.39

$185.93

$193.46

$201.00

5.1

$142.80

$150.45

$158.10

$165.75

$173.40

$181.05

$188.70

$196.35

$204.00

5.175

$144.90

$152.66

$160.43

$168.19

$175.95

$183.71

$191.48

$199.24

$207.00

5.25

$147.00

$154.88

$162.75

$170.63

$178.50

$186.38

$194.25

$202.13

$210.00

5.325

$149.10

$157.09

$165.08

$173.06

$181.05

$189.04

$197.03

$205.01

$213.00

5.4

$151.20

$159.30

$167.40

$175.50

$183.60

$191.70

$199.80

$207.90

$216.00

5.475

$153.30

$161.51

$169.73

$177.94

$186.15

$194.36

$202.58

$210.79

$219.00

 

 

I think it will probably hit at least the medium green region but leaving very wide uncertainty for now to respect being t-65

Woah, holy shit. 

 

But people on Reddit told me that nobody cares about Jackman's Wolverine and that he's not on the same level as Raimi Spider-Man

Edited by HummingLemon496
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ChipDerby Summer Tentpole

ChipDerby

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, HummingLemon496 said:

@Relevation predicted a $200-205M opening weekend at the last minute. I'm thinking under for now but if this is recieved like GOTG 3 he might have actually cooked. 

 

How is his Garfield prediction looking

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VanillaSkies Box Office Gold

VanillaSkies

Posted
Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Yeah Free Guy did really well in the context of the pandemic, basically doubled the movie from previous weekend


He is also executive producer on Stranger Things (and directed 8 episodes) since the beginning, so that probably has helped him behind the scenes if less so for the GP.

Edited by VanillaSkies
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AMC Theaters Enjoyer Box Office Gold

AMC Theaters Enjoyer

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Legion Again said:

Alright, fine then

T-65

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix

Thursday Preview Gross Range

$28.00

$29.50

$31.00

$32.50

$34.00

$35.50

$37.00

$38.50

$40.00

Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)

4.875

$136.50

$143.81

$151.13

$158.44

$165.75

$173.06

$180.38

$187.69

$195.00

4.95

$138.60

$146.03

$153.45

$160.88

$168.30

$175.73

$183.15

$190.58

$198.00

5.025

$140.70

$148.24

$155.78

$163.31

$170.85

$178.39

$185.93

$193.46

$201.00

5.1

$142.80

$150.45

$158.10

$165.75

$173.40

$181.05

$188.70

$196.35

$204.00

5.175

$144.90

$152.66

$160.43

$168.19

$175.95

$183.71

$191.48

$199.24

$207.00

5.25

$147.00

$154.88

$162.75

$170.63

$178.50

$186.38

$194.25

$202.13

$210.00

5.325

$149.10

$157.09

$165.08

$173.06

$181.05

$189.04

$197.03

$205.01

$213.00

5.4

$151.20

$159.30

$167.40

$175.50

$183.60

$191.70

$199.80

$207.90

$216.00

5.475

$153.30

$161.51

$169.73

$177.94

$186.15

$194.36

$202.58

$210.79

$219.00

 

 

I think it will probably hit at least the medium green region but leaving very wide uncertainty for now to respect being t-65


Are you expecting an IM close to Thor 4?

Edited by AMC Theaters Enjoyer
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TheFlatLannister Box Office Gold

TheFlatLannister

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

THE GARFIELD MOVIE

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

522

1411

97286

1.5%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

338

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

66

 

COMPS

T-2

(0.539x) of Kung Fu Panda 4 $2.05M

Comps average: $2.05M

 

oof steep drop today 

FLORIDA 

 

THE GARFIELD MOVIE

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

522

1513

97286

1.6%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

102

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-1

(0.498x) of Kung Fu Panda 4 $1.89M

Comps average: $1.89M

 

This is so bad. Sold 1/3 of what it did yesterday 

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