The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Cmasterclay]

So with IF holding meh and Furiosa and Garfield collapsing, we are going to be stuck at 5 100m grossers through May. Truly devastating shit, man.

[Mojoguy]

50 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Where is this idea coming from that Twisters is going to be this huge 4 quadrant blockbuster film? I'm just not seeing it (it would probably need over $500M DOM and $1B+ WW to win the summer)

Because something tends to break out every summer. The last 2 years it was TGM and Barbie, both of the 1st pages their topics predicted they would flop but they became mega hits.

 

Not saying Twisters will be the next TGM, but it could suprise and double expectations or something.

[abracadabra1998]

Just now, abracadabra1998 said:

I know exactly what theater that is because I track it too lol. They sometimes block out that last row in that particular amphitheater, as well as 5 other seats (maybe broken or what not). The actual number sold there in those three showings is 11 seats

Moreover, the reason I prefer tracking “by hand” (other than my total lack of knowledge around scrapers) is because of things like these, over time you figure out what theaters block off what seats in what rooms and what not. Just make note of it @Relevation because that particular theater does it quite a bit in different rooms as well  

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

I know exactly what theater that is because I track it too lol. They sometimes block out that last row in that particular amphitheater, as well as 5 other seats (maybe broken or what not). The actual number sold there in those three showings is 11 seats

If there are 5 non back row seats that show blocked then wouldn’t it be 0+7+2 sold for 9?

[abracadabra1998]

8 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

If there are 5 non back row seats that show blocked then wouldn’t it be 0+7+2 sold for 9?

The first one has two seats for folks with disabilities grayed out, so 2+7+2=11

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

31 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I don't really want to get into melodramatics regarding the schedule but it does seem like it would be more ideal for Universal if Twisters and Despicable Me switched release dates. They seem to be leaning into the whole red-blooded 'murican angle with Twisters anyway so it makes more sense as a July 4th release. I dunno if they were afraid of a possible Horizon breakout or something but that doesn't seem like that's gonna be too big a concern now.

Don’t the Despicable Me/Minions movies usually open around the beginning of July? Might be that Uni doesn’t want to rock the boat on what’s already working for them in regards to that franchise. 

[SaltyPistola]

7 hours ago, marveldcfox said:

How did Shawn levy go from Pink Panther to this big time director/producer in hollywood? Looking at his resume, he has made some stinkers, but all his movies have made money in one way or another. This is going to be his biggest blockbuster ever. Reviews wise, I am expecting 40-70% on RT. 

He's been in the industry 20+ years, a lot his movies were very successful and he's quite an influential producer - he's a large part Stranger Things getting off the ground and being so successful. It's really not not that shocking of a evolution.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Anyways, hope I’m not going too off topic but I think Twisters will do quite well but it’s not gonna be the biggest film of the summer.

 

that will be Despicable Me 4. 

Edited May 23 by AMC Theaters Enjoyer

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 Previews(T-2)

Garfield - 8501/381678 121318.79 2536 shows +1672

Furiosa - 43702/471832 884503.38 2528 shows +4599

 

Meh acceleration for both the movies again. Furious looking finishing in 4.x at this point. Garfield looks like finish like 1.5m minus early shows. 

MTC1 Previews(T-1) 

Garfield - 11685/385323 164259.21 2570 shows +3184

Furious - 50036/479719 1000393.42 2596 shows +6334

 

I am thinking 1.5/1.6m for Garfield and 4.3/4.5m for Furiosa.

[emoviefan]

The thing  with Furiosa is this always had the potential to happen. We hope it was not going to but it is. The Casuals do not  give a shit and they probably never did. The Qurom metrics were pointing to that result. Enough of them saw Fury Road to get it to 150+ DOM and 375+WW but they did not love it and probably have not even thought or cared about it since. It's just us  Movie Nerds and Cinephiles that do.  This is just where we are right now it sucks. A bunch of movies are coming out right now that GA just do not give a shit about enough to bother seeing in a theater. Apes was the only one that could buck that  trend to a large enough number to at least get to 100 DOM since GXK. Like I said earlier if BB ROD and IO 2 and Quiet Place should all do well next month and seem to have a lot more going for them than this month's movies. If they do not do well then not sure what to say.

[Cmasterclay]

I just hope they both have better than expected IMs. I guess one thing I have never gotten in the world of box office in the modern day, and I swear I'm not judging, is like....who buys tickets for Garfield six weeks in advance? Who buys tickets for either of these movies even six days in advance? The only time I've ever bought tickets more than a week in advance are the Star Wars sequels and the Batman because I was going with large groups. I understand they are very predictive and good numbers and I appreciate our trackers! I just don't see why 99% of people aren't just waiting until Saturday of a long weekend to buy Garfield tickets. You'd think the sample size of advanced tickets for a movie like Garfield would be so small that predicting the weekend total and IM would be impossible, but I know it is not.

[charlie Jatinder]

16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 Previews(T-1) 

Garfield - 11685/385323 164259.21 2570 shows +3184

Furious - 50036/479719 1000393.42 2596 shows +6334

 

I am thinking 1.5/1.6m for Garfield and 4.3/4.5m for Furiosa.

I think Furiosa gonna end well below 4. Something like 3.75M. 

Awful trending and MTC1 overindexing.

Edited May 23 by charlie Jatinder

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I just hope they both have better than expected IMs. I guess one thing I have never gotten in the world of box office in the modern day, and I swear I'm not judging, is like....who buys tickets for Garfield six weeks in advance? Who buys tickets for either of these movies even six days in advance? The only time I've ever bought tickets more than a week in advance are the Star Wars sequels and the Batman because I was going with large groups. I understand they are very predictive and good numbers and I appreciate our trackers! I just don't see why 99% of people aren't just waiting until Saturday of a long weekend to buy Garfield tickets. You'd think the sample size of advanced tickets for a movie like Garfield would be so small that predicting the weekend total and IM would be impossible, but I know it is not.

I have been saying that for awhile.As big a movie person as I am I do not buy tickets weeks in advance.  Last time was probably EndGame. I have not bought my Furiosa ticket yet because you know it's a 3 day weekend and I have nothing major planned and I am sure tickets will not be hard to get.

[charlie Jatinder]

@Porthos don't kill me.

Just for shits and giggle, can you throw in TRoS and Captain Marvel for DP3. 

Just for trend's sake, no serious comps.

 

Edit: Turns out you already gave data for both films. So can check it self.

Spoiler

Days	CM	TROS	DP3
68
67
66			2845
65			447
64
63
62
61
60
59		8,308
58	1498	1,497
57	195	348
56	160	196
55	64	161
54	98	111
53	71	127
52	62	118
51	59	70
50	74	52
49	50	30
48	37	77
47	36	87
46	43	49
45	27	77
44	57	73
43	17	103
42	22	102
41	26	80
40	19	58
39	17	41
38	9	46
37	22	63
36	21	38
35	40	48
34	18	65
33	42	64
32	76	85
31	68	46
30	53	69
29	30	76
28	52	69
27	38	67
26	32	77
25	29	122
24	23	92
23	38	80
22	48	94
21	51	121
20	62	108
19	78	139
18	23	112
17	41	109
16	52	137
15	90	155
14	112	171
13	133	135
12	90	157
11	82	198
10	128	198
9	168	165
8	113	228
7	190	256
6	241	214
5	237	215
4	402	400
3	551	610
2	802	668
1	1063	845
0	2573	1,234

 

 

DP3 is VERY LOW in Sacto. CM was YUGE.

 

Edited May 23 by charlie Jatinder

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Porthos don't kill me.

Just for shits and giggle, can you throw in TRoS and Captain Marvel for DP3. 

Just for trend's sake, no serious comps.

Are they really good comps? Those movies came out when Thursday previews were at 7PM not 2PM

Edited May 23 by HummingLemon496

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think Furiosa gonna end well below 4. Something like 3.75M. 

Awful trending.

Once again says more about GA interest in the movie than it says about moviegoing itself. The interest was probably never there.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Furiosa Denver Thursday

1029/10023 in 9 theaters

0.920	Adjusted GB Frozen T-2	4.326M
0.313	Adjusted Dune Part 2 T-2	3.131M

 

All numbers I'm gonna post are from a few hours ago

Furiosa Denver Thursday

1252(+223)/10023 in 9 theaters

 

0.340

Adjusted Dune Part 2 T-1

3.40M

 

Numbers are once again from a few hours ago. I'll add more comps tomorrow

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Furiosa Alamo Drafthouse

T-2 Thursday

208 Showings

5361

+5361

28747

ATP:

18.18

1.261	GB Frozen T-2	5.92M
0.361	Dune Part 2 T-2	4.33M

 

T-3 Friday

306 Showings

5526

+5526

42490

ATP:

17.79

1.150	GB Frozen T-3	13.11M
0.303	Dune Part 2 T-3	6.12M

 

T-4 Saturday

313 Showings

4751

+4751

42925

ATP:

16.92

0.835	GB Frozen T-4	14.77M
0.224	Dune Part 2 T-4	6.45M

 

T-5 Sunday

305 Showings

3167

+3167

42121

ATP:

17.04

1.044	GB Frozen T-5	11.72M
0.215	Dune Part 2 T-5	4.64M

Furiosa Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 Thursday

210 Showings

6171

+810

28761

ATP:

18.02

0.378

Dune Part 2 T-1

4.53M

 

T-2 Friday

306 Showings

6387

+861

42490

ATP:

17.64

0.305

Dune Part 2 T-2

6.17M

 

T-3 Saturday

313 Showings

5459

+708

42925

ATP:

16.84

0.223

Dune Part 2 T-3

6.40M

 

T-4 Sunday

305 Showings

3706

+539

42121

ATP:

16.91

0.221

Dune Part 2 T-4

4.76M

[Cmasterclay]

6 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Once again says more about GA interest in the movie than it says about moviegoing itself. The interest was probably never there.

It's a combination of both - definitely bad product this month, and plenty of my friends have expressed their own disinterest, but it used to be that there was a bare minimum number of regular theater goers that you would have a floor for the total box office each weekend, with higher floors depending on season and other stuff. 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Furiosa Emagine Entertainment

T-2 Thursday

137 Showings

560

+560

19633

0.615	GB Frozen T-2	2.89M
0.172	Dune Part 2 T-2	2.06M

 

T-3 Friday

236 Showings

595

+595

33364

0.342	GB Frozen T-3	3.89M
0.114	Dune Part 2 T-3	2.30M

 

T-4 Saturday

247 Showings

496

+496

35084

0.304	GB Frozen T-4	5.37M
0.092	Dune Part 2 T-4	2.66M

 

T-5 Sunday

234 Showings

194

+194

33988

0.296	GB Frozen T-5	3.32M
0.072	Dune Part 2 T-5	1.55M

Furiosa Emagine Entertainment

T-1 Thursday

137 Showings

697

+137

19592

0.182

Dune Part 2 T-1

2.19M

 

T-2 Friday

238 Showings

826

+231

33902

0.131

Dune Part 2 T-2

2.64M

 

T-3 Saturday

246 Showings

655

+159

35054

0.102

Dune Part 2 T-3

2.92M

 

T-4 Sunday

233 Showings

269

+75

33938

0.081

Dune Part 2 T-4

1.75M

 

Dune Part 2 obviously ain't a good comp here lol, but not like it's good at my other theaters anyway