The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[misterpepp]

Piece by Piece on sale Sep 16

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

12 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Are there any theater counts on the Derby films:  God's Not Dead: In God We Trust  (not even listed on HSX) & Usher: Rendezvous In Paris

 

IndieWire referenced God's Not Dead 4 as opening in 1399 theaters. It is only showing 1-2 times per day in almost all theaters, though. https://www.indiewire.com/news/box-office/gods-not-dead-will-be-a-hit-love-the-lord-and-the-cinemascore-1235046390/

 

Usher is only showing one time per day in almost all of its theaters. Have not seen an official theater count for it anywhere.

[Flip]

On 9/11/2024 at 11:17 PM, Flip said:

Joker 2 Previews Day Three (T-22)

20 showtimes/240 tix sold (+4)

 

Missed Deadpool 3 (T-22) [???]
1.68x Beetlejuice 2 (T-22) [16.46m]
2.11x AQP Day One (T-22) [13.72m]

 

Sales starting to slow down, today should’ve been a bit higher though due to the ad that aired late last night during the debate

Joker 2 Previews (T-21)

20 showtimes/251 tix sold (+11)

 

Missed Deadpool 3 (T-21) [???]
1.74x Beetlejuice 2 (T-21) [17.05m]
2.04x AQP Day One (T-21) [13.87m]

 

Lets see how the weekend goes

[DAJK]

Not sure how relevant WC Canada is for Speak No Evil, but all my comps point to 1.3-1.6M previews, with the majority converging on the higher end. Solid stuff for the most part, but 20M will be tough.

[Krissykins]

5 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Any signs of life for Speak No Evil? It just got a 90% certified fresh on RT. 
 

Still thinking WOM can kick in and push it higher at last minute.

Maybe a small Friday the 13th bump too? 

[M37]

12 hours ago, AniNate said:

It could do it off just under a $50mil weekend and Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs legs. Certainly not impossible, and we've had a history of animated movies exploding in the final presale week this year. This seems as prime to do it as any.

Not impossible, but Cloudy was a big 3D hit back when capacity was still limited, pushing some business to second weekend (-17% !!!). But still made less than 2x its second full week going forward.

 

In abstract (as in I haven’t looked at sales much) wouldn’t set expectations higher than something along the lines of Hotel Transylvania’s $40M/$150M. The ceiling is just a lot lower in the fall (barring IT or BJBJ level of hype)

[AniNate]

I set my expectation back in March and I'm holding to it. So far, all the externalities are working in its favor. I don't really buy that it's limited to the real dollar ceiling of past September animations. We haven't had one recently with the kind of Pixar level critical acclaim this one has received, and cloudy only fell off late because of extra PG rated competition in late October and early November. Wild robot won't have much more of significance until Wicked, and that ought to be enough of a runway to get it to a 4x multiplier if general word of mouth matches critics.

 

 

Edited Friday at 08:10 AM by AniNate

[M37]

9 hours ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

Yeah I don't think it's gonna get all that close to the 70m number. But sales alone wouldn't preclude that tracking.

 

9 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

This is a Flash/The Marvels 2.0 imo

 

Summer 2024 films did have really great late business but those were relatively well received out of the gate

Yeah … the fact that initial tracking is “only” for $70M is itself a bit of a red flag, already conceding a significant drop from the original, only a question of how much. There’s a bit of “it won’t be that low” baked into those estimates, as as Lannister said, we’ve already seen that the floor can be much lower 

 

I don’t think it can be overstated how much Joker was a right place/right time kind of release, for reasons far different from Marvels (that this probably isn’t the thread to delve into), and without that boost - and probably some attrition with the musical tone - is going to fall pretty far 

 

[AniNate]

There is actually historic precedence for an abnormally leggy September PG movie not affected by 3D: Remember the Titans. Opened to 21mil in 2000 and legged out to 116m (would adjust to 40/215 today). Also benefited from no new big family movies until Grinch and Rugrats opened the same weekend in November.

 

I'm sure people will say "ya but different era/more adult appeal/kids only want to see NTCs now" blah blah blah but this clearly isn't typical September animation filler so I don't think it'll operate by the same rules.

 

ADDENDUM: It does actually appear Titans demand was simply underestimated in its theater count opening weekend so that does partially explain the great early legs. It added 800 theaters its second weekend. Still, I think it's a solid enough case study to say that the ceiling isn't what people think it is. It proceeded to more than double its gross after that course correction.

 

 

 

Edited Friday at 09:00 AM by AniNate

[Cooper Legion]

I mean if we want a case for optimism on a animated movie’s legs vs historical expectations, look no further than IO2 😛   
 

 

[vafrow]

On 9/11/2024 at 7:00 AM, vafrow said:

 

Transformers One, T-9, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 13

New Sales since T-12: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 1.0

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Saturday EA Shows

Showtimes: 3

Sales: 84

New sales: 45

Growth: 115%

 

Wednesday EA Shows

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 15

New sales: 4

Growth: 36%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/1

Early Evening: 7/6

Late Evening: 6/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 0/3

Dolby 3D: 6/4

IMAX: 7/4

4DX: 0/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.151x KFP4 for $0.7M

0.191x IO2 for $2.5M

0.084x DM4 for $2.3M

13.000x Garfield for $25.0M

 

Average: $1.8M (excluding Garfield)

 

EA Comps (Sunday only)

9.900x Garfield for $5.7M

 

Hard to make much sense here of comps. The EA sales are fantastic, clearly that's attracting a crowd. Which is likely causing demand for Thursday to remain low. We'll probably only get a sense once Saturday showings are done.

 

Transformers One, T-7, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 22

New Sales since T-9: 9

Growth: 69%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 1.7

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Saturday EA Shows

Showtimes: 3

Sales: 135

New sales: 51

Growth: 61%

 

Wednesday EA Shows

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 17

New sales: 2

Growth: 7%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/1

Early Evening: 7/6

Late Evening: 6/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 2/3

Dolby 3D: 7/4

IMAX: 13/4

4DX: 0/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.195x KFP4 for $0.9M

0.250x IO2 for $3.3M

0.098x DM4 for $2.7M

22.000x Garfield for $42.4M

 

Average: $2.3M (excluding Garfield)

 

EA Comps (Sunday only)

8.000x Garfield for $4.6M

 

It finally saw a bit of a bump. I'm hoping that sales get steadier after the EA show tomorrow.

[vafrow]

On 9/8/2024 at 10:04 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Wild Robot, T-19, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 7

New Sales: 5

Growth: 250%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Tickets per Showtime: 0.4

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

PSales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/5

Early Evening: 5/7

Late Evening: 2/5

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular:  0/1

Regular 3D: 0/1

Dolby: 0/2

Dolby 3D: 7/8

IMAX: 0/4

 

Comps 

0.389x KFP4 for $1.9M

0.318x IO2 for $4.1M

1.400x TFOne for???

Garfield at zero sales unable to calculate 

Average: $3.0M

 

Switched comps to T minus. Because it had a nice bump in sales, it's held fairly well. 

 

The Wild Robot, T-14, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 9

New Sales: 2

Growth: 29%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Tickets per Showtime: 0.5

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

PSales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/5

Early Evening: 7/7

Late Evening: 2/5

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular:  0/1

Regular 3D: 0/1

Dolby: 0/2

Dolby 3D: 9/8

IMAX: 0/4

 

Comps 

0.188x KFP4 for $0.9M

0.257x IO2 for $3.3M

2.250x Garfield for $4.3M

0.818x TFOne for ???

 

Average: $2.9M

 

I'm reluctant to put too much weight on Garfield, but it's not like the other comps are great ones either.

[vafrow]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

 

Yeah … the fact that initial tracking is “only” for $70M is itself a bit of a red flag, already conceding a significant drop from the original, only a question of how much. There’s a bit of “it won’t be that low” baked into those estimates, as as Lannister said, we’ve already seen that the floor can be much lower 

 

I don’t think it can be overstated how much Joker was a right place/right time kind of release, for reasons far different from Marvels (that this probably isn’t the thread to delve into), and without that boost - and probably some attrition with the musical tone - is going to fall pretty far 

 

 

About the right place, right time factor, one element that I don't see discussed enough was the awards push timing for Phoenix. Early on, it seemed like the industry was eager to recognize an actor with a long legacy. This made it possible to take a comic book film to the festival circuit even as the backlash against the comic book dominance was high.

 

Everything about that film aligned to generate discussion. Heck, it's so clearly modeled after a Scorsese film, right around when he was making his comments about the genre. Throw in the fears of it inspiring violence.

 

It really was a film that audiences felt they needed to see in order to have an opinion on the conversations.

[vafrow]

On 9/12/2024 at 5:52 AM, vafrow said:

 

Joker: Folie a Deux, D3, T-23, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Monday EA 

 

Total Sales: 59

New Sales: 9

Growth: 18%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 3.1

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/4

Early Evening: 34/9

Late Evening: 21/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 22/7

VIP: 14/6

IMAX: 23/6

 

Comps

2.682x Beetlejuice² for $26.3M

0.465x GxK for $4.6M

0.043x D&W for $1.7M

0.407x Dune 2 for $4.1M

0.615x HG: BoSS for $3.5M

1.553x Aquaman 2 for $7.0M

Average: $7.9M

 

Monday EA Sales

Total: 55

New sales: 9

Growth: 20%

Showings: 2 IMAX showing in radius 

 

EA Comp

0.185x Dune 2 for $0.4M

 

I kept D level comps, since a lot of them don't kick in again until around T-15, some a bit sooner. I figure I'll not update to the weekend, where I'll have a different mix of options.

 

I threw Beetlejuice into the average. It's not distorting as badly, and once I shift to T minus, it'll actually be a useful comp.

 

Overall, this was a decent day. Some movement in the right direction, but nothing drastic.

 

Joker: Folie a Deux, T-21, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Monday EA 

 

Total Sales: 61

New Sales: 2

Growth: 3%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 3.2

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/4

Early Evening: 36/9

Late Evening: 21/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 22/7

VIP: 14/6

IMAX: 23/6

 

Comps

1.000x Beetlejuice² for $9.8M

0.194x Dune 2 for $1.9M

0.127x The Marvels for $0.8M

Average: $4.2M

 

Monday EA Sales

Total: 68

New sales: 13

Growth: 24%

Showings: 2 IMAX showing in radius 

 

EA Comp

0.217x Dune 2 for $0.4M

 

I miscalculated the days to release, so I've adjusted to reflect that it's T-21, and switched over the comps.

 

The films it's comping decently too all had later starts though, so it looks pretty bad. The Marvels coming on line doesn't help. It's worth pointing out that The Marvels likely overindexed here due to demographics. 

 

Beetlejuice coming down with the shift to T minus is interesting. I'll likely keep it as a comp, as it's essentially what Joker needs to keep pace with to stay on track for the $70M opening circulated by the trades.

[HummingLemon496]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

Yeah … the fact that initial tracking is “only” for $70M is itself a bit of a red flag, already conceding a significant drop from the original, only a question of how much. There’s a bit of “it won’t be that low” baked into those estimates, as as Lannister said, we’ve already seen that the floor can be much lower 

 

I don’t think it can be overstated how much Joker was a right place/right time kind of release, for reasons far different from Marvels (that this probably isn’t the thread to delve into), and without that boost - and probably some attrition with the musical tone - is going to fall pretty far 

 

Unrelated but the Shazam PFP is fucking perfection

[Shawn Robbins]

1.3 official for SNE

[AniNate]

Could be worse I guess, in line with the tracking

[Flopped]

Is there a chance that The Substance could outgross MaXXXine? I know MaXXXine had big presales only to deflate. 

[Ryan C]

$1.3M is just above where Speak No Evil could've been at the high end of its previews, so this is a fine start. 

 

Now it's just up to good word-of-mouth (which this has) and a potential Friday the 13th boost to hopefully boost this one's projections for a $15M+ opening. 

 

Either way, Universal and Blumhouse only spent $15M on this film, so they should be in a good place with it even if it's not a Longlegs-level breakout/success.

[filmlover]

4 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

About the right place, right time factor, one element that I don't see discussed enough was the awards push timing for Phoenix. Early on, it seemed like the industry was eager to recognize an actor with a long legacy. This made it possible to take a comic book film to the festival circuit even as the backlash against the comic book dominance was high.

 

Everything about that film aligned to generate discussion. Heck, it's so clearly modeled after a Scorsese film, right around when he was making his comments about the genre. Throw in the fears of it inspiring violence.

 

It really was a film that audiences felt they needed to see in order to have an opinion on the conversations.

I get the impression they thought "Lady Gaga as Harley Quinn" was enough of a hook to ensure people would show up in massive numbers again, but in reality the audience overlaps between fans of the first movie (with all the controversy that surrounded it when it released) and Gaga stans doesn't seem especially compatible even on paper. It doesn't seem far-fetched to believe that Ariana Grande in Wicked is far more exciting for her fan base than Gaga in a sequel to Joker (2019) that went in a convoluted direction is for hers.