The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Caption Action 3]

17 hours ago, grumpythepenguin said:

 

I'm curious to see how open caption tracks for it just because as a musical, you would think that audiences would seek out open caption, similarly with Wicked and Moana 2 coming up. Have you seen that with previous musical-style movies (or especially the Taylor Swift/Beyonce concert films)?

No, because open captions help people understand the dialogue, whether spoken or sung. Thanks for commenting - think you're the first to comment on one of our posts.

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

SMILE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
341	816	69504	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-17

(0.431x) of Quiet Place: Day One $2.93M

(0.991x) of Civil War $2.88M

Comps AVG: $2.91

 

Pretty good start to presales. If it stays at this level, could be around $30M OW

[Ryan C]

On 9/24/2024 at 2:05 AM, Ryan C said:

 

Joker: Folie à Deux

 

T-9 and T-6

 

Monday, September 30 - Fan Event Showings: 1,693 Seats Sold (5.6% Increase From Last Time)

Thursday, October 3 - Traditional Thursday Previews: 4,013 Seats Sold (24.2% Increase From Last Time)

= 5,706 Seats Sold (18% Increase From Last Time)

 

Taken as of 2:00AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Still not seeing much that's pointing towards this overcoming a disappointing opening. 

 

Warner Bros. really needs to hope this plays like a non traditional comic-book movie in the final week of pre-sales. 

 

Joker Folie à Deux

 

T-3 and T-0

 

Monday, September 30 - Fan Event Showings: 1,755 Seats Sold (3.6% Increase From Last Time)

Thursday, October 3 - Traditional Thursday Previews: 5,532 Seats Sold (37.8% Increase From Last Time)

= 7,287 Seats Sold (27.7% Increase From Last Time)

 

Taken as of 6:30PM Eastern Time

 

More on this tonight!

Edited 19 hours ago by Ryan C

[CheeseWizard]

So is there a chance joker opens to less than 50 million?

[leoh]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

SMILE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
341	816	69504	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-17

(0.431x) of Quiet Place: Day One $2.93M

(0.991x) of Civil War $2.88M

Comps AVG: $2.91

 

Pretty good start to presales. If it stays at this level, could be around $30M OW

Could you confirm if ‘Venom: The Last Dance’ pre sales start tomorrow? 
 

I was checking Fandango and theaters allocations and it’s insane, it seems it’ll take over every single premium large format nationwide (including AMC Prime). However, there’s no information when I search for Florida theaters.

[Relevation]

Y'all I thought my Wild Robot OW > Joker OW prediction was dead, wtf...

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, Relevation said:

Y'all I thought my Wild Robot OW > Joker OW prediction was dead, wtf...

I mean. . it is dead? There's no way Joker goes below WR OW

[CompoundTheGains]

Too busy today and tomorrow to update but Terrifier 3 just keeps creeping up on tickets sold.  Two theaters are now well above 200 tickets sold for Thursday in California.  One has 3 showings and the other just opened up a fifth showing for Thursday and I expect it to fill up quickly.  These same theaters just broke 400+ tickets sold Thursday-Sunday and each only have 4 showings total (1 or 2 showings per night) for Friday-Sunday available to pre-buy currently.  I’ll update full numbers on the 70+ theaters I’m tracking in CA as soon as time allows.

Edited 17 hours ago by CompoundTheGains

[TheFlatLannister]

On 9/21/2024 at 7:32 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

JOKER: FOLIE À DEUX 

 

Thursday 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
647	4195	134381	3.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

99

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-12

(0.643x) of Beetlejuice $6.30M

(0.174x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $6.69M

Comps AVG: $6.50M

 

Wasn't going to post numbers since much hasn't changed, but per request here they are. 

FLORIDA 

JOKER: FOLIE À DEUX 

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
670	6316	139137	4.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

506

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-3

(0.601x) of Beetlejuice $5.89M

(0.169x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $6.49M

Comps AVG: $6.19M

 

Pace has fallen off a cliff. Starting to hit that YIKES moment in presales. 

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

JOKER: FOLIE À DEUX 

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
670	6316	139137	4.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

506

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-3

(0.601x) of Beetlejuice $5.89M

(0.169x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $6.49M

Comps AVG: $6.19M

 

Pace has fallen off a cliff. Starting to hit that YIKES moment in presales. 

Wild Robot > Joker 2 OW

 

Whatever it takes

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, leoh said:

Could you confirm if ‘Venom: The Last Dance’ pre sales start tomorrow? 
 

I was checking Fandango and theaters allocations and it’s insane, it seems it’ll take over every single premium large format nationwide (including AMC Prime). However, there’s no information when I search for Florida theaters.

No idea when it starts, but I can see listed showings. Lots of showings it seems (Good sign)

[filmlover]

Missing $40M opening would be downright embarrassing.

[AniNate]

Well, Joker was tracking really well before the presales actually started, so definitely don't want to assume anything about Venom 3 yet. Though at least they probably will hold reviews until the week of release for that movie.

 

 

Edited 17 hours ago by AniNate

[dudalb]

9 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I'm sadly not that lucky, given that I opened a "Joker 2 will be the biggest movie of the year" club after the actors' strike commenced last year. I look like a massive idiot now. I'm still shocked that it's now set to potentially open to less than half of the first movie's launch. And you know word of mouth will make Batman v Superman look like My Big Fat Greek Wedding by comparison, especially if the leaks are true. Add in the quadrupled budget this time around...

Oh I am sure when the Joker 2 underperforms this video will be all over the internet.I remain a pretty strong defender of the 1966 Batman TV show..for at least the first two seasons and the movie; they were funny as hell..which is what they were tyring to be.The third season though fell off the cliff as far as quality goes, after the core writing staff left in a fight over money with Fox.

[Ryan C]

3 hours ago, Ryan C said:

 

Joker Folie à Deux

 

T-3 and T-0

 

Monday, September 30 - Fan Event Showings: 1,755 Seats Sold (3.6% Increase From Last Time)

Thursday, October 3 - Traditional Thursday Previews: 5,532 Seats Sold (37.8% Increase From Last Time)

= 7,287 Seats Sold (27.7% Increase From Last Time)

 

Taken as of 6:30PM Eastern Time

 

More on this tonight!

 

Sorry for not providing any "IMPORTANT NOTES" earlier, but while I was counting up the number of seats sold, I was rushing to finish because I was on the way to actually see Joker: Folie à Deux at the Fan Event showing. Didn't have any time to write anything else other than the numbers because I had to get to the theater. 

 

Anyways, judging by the numbers I was tracking today, it was a substantial increase from last time (and before more showtimes will be added tomorrow), but it's still not nearly enough to convince me that this movie isn't going to have a disappointing opening. Below $40M seems insane based on the numbers I'm seeing, but clearly something is up in the markets for it to get that low. 

 

Maybe it will be saved by walk-up business, but even that is unlikely given the nature of this film (it's probably not gonna get the general audiences who didn't ask for a Joker sequel) and the fact that word-of-mouth is most likely gonna be negative (or mixed at best) on it. 

 

I'll track the film again on Wednesday and Thursday (hopefully) to see if anything improves, but we should not be expecting that high of an opening. I'll predict somewhere in the range of The Flash ($55M) for now, but things could always get worse or better depending on its pace these next few days. 

 

Lastly, and this might sound dumb, but after I track the film on Thursday, I'm gonna be staying off both the pre-sale thread and the eventual weekend thread at least until Tuesday. Not only that, but I'm not even going to bother looking at the opening numbers for Joker 2 at least until the weekend is over. 

 

I'm sorry, but with how much doom-and-gloom has gone around these threads about this movie and it having a bad opening weekend (though I can't deny if it does), I'm genuinely tired of it and I don't want to engage in conversations that never end in a good place. I did the same thing with The Flash and The Marvels last year (I didn't see the opening numbers for a few days so I could avoid all the discourse). Don't know why superhero/comic-book movies that are the worst offender of this, but they really are. 

 

In the end, I'm really hoping this movie beats expectations and that we won't be sitting here talking about how it opened lower than The Wild Robot. In a year that's seen the box office try to climb back, we can't have an opening for a movie like this be this bad. 

 

P.S. Sorry again for going on a little rant, but I had to let that out somewhere. 

[leoh]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

No idea when it starts, but I can see listed showings. Lots of showings it seems (Good sign)

Oh yeah listed showings I saw on Fandango for other locations seem huge as well. Please let us know in case it does start tomorrow.

 

Cryptic said today pre sales start October 1 aka tomorrow 😄

 

[HummingLemon496]

I don't think Joker will crater to sub-$40M territory because there is a point where it kinda just reaches its floor. Like I remember people were discussing The Marvels potentially going below $40M but then even with awful reception (B) it still did $46M. I think $45-50M is where it's aiming.

Edited 15 hours ago by HummingLemon496

[emoviefan]

48 minutes ago, leoh said:

Oh yeah listed showings I saw on Fandango for other locations seem huge as well. Please let us know in case it does start tomorrow.

 

Cryptic said today pre sales start October 1 aka tomorrow 😄

 

Not a fan of this franchise but after what happened with Joker  we need this to break out or the next month and a half or so is going to be ugly.

[Flip]

On 9/29/2024 at 10:19 PM, Flip said:

Joker 2 Previews (T-4) 9 days of sales

20 showtimes/623 tix sold (+255)

 

.28x Deadpool 3 (T-4) [10.78m]

1.60x Beetlejuice 2 (T-4) [15.68m]
2.22x AQP Day One (T-4) [15.10m]
2.95x Trap (T-4) [6.49m]
 

heading for 7-8m from what I can gather

Joker 2 Previews (T-3) 

20 showtimes/731 tix sold (+108)

 

Missed Deadpool 3 (T-3) [???]

1.62x Beetlejuice 2 (T-3) [15.88m]
2.21x AQP Day One (T-3) [15.03m]
3.02x Trap (T-3) [6.64m]

 

This is decent pace, especially considering reviews aren’t good.

[WebSurfer]

3 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

I mean. . it is dead? There's no way Joker goes below WR OW

Not happening unfortunately.

 

Though, if Joker underwhelms I hope The Wild Robot continues to come out on top.