The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Cmasterclay]

18 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

Joker bombing was unfortunate but not the death blow to 9B. The year isn’t over yet. If Venom, Smile, Wicked, Red One and Gladiator all bomb or underperform before Moana 2, then yeah, 9B is basically dead and so is beating 2023

Smile is gonna do like 20/55 and Red One looks like the worst movie ever filmed, so Conclave and Here need to do 30m+ domestic to pick up the slack.

[AniNate]

December was pretty lousy last year too and we've got a few potential big hitters this year. I don't think we're at the point where we need a Barbenheimer and an IO2 yet. If Venom flops we might though. 

 

 

Edited 6 hours ago by AniNate

[Grand Cine]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wicked sales look even stronger than Gladiator 2. its going to be a very good weekend for BO. Then we have Moana 2 during thanksgiving. It has to make up for disastrous Joker 2(in fact everything post Beetlejuice have been just ok minus Joker 2). 

Looks like a mini Barbenheimer , with the same thing , the movie which appeal to younger and women people had stronger presales. Good thing than presales is already strong with 6 Weeks to go . Clearly already more marketing for the trio than Smile 2 and Venom 3. There is no more than Moana 2 and the party can begin.

[filmlover]

Anyone know what A24's plan is for We Live in Time? It looks like it's getting a pretty substantial expansion on the 18th so at least a couple hundred theaters.

[TalismanRing]

NYC REGAL Local (Wed/5pm)

Screens have expanded from 2 to 4 for previews and from 2 to 7 for the w/e

 

Terrifier:  225/1007 (Thur)

 

Last weeks insane killer clown movie was at 192/2474 at the same time

 

Gladiator 2 and Wicked - both with 4 showings including one PLF each.

 

Glad 2:  22 tickets

Wicked 23 tickets (witch hat emojis in seats)

Edited 6 hours ago by TalismanRing

[Relevation]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wicked sales look even stronger than Gladiator 2. it’s going to be a very good weekend for BO. Then we have Moana 2 during thanksgiving. It has to make up for disastrous Joker 2(in fact everything post Beetlejuice have been just ok minus Joker 2). 

Specific THU numbers by any chance…?

[dudalb]

1 hour ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

Joker bombing was unfortunate but not the death blow to 9B. The year isn’t over yet. If Venom, Smile, Wicked, Red One and Gladiator all bomb or underperform before Moana 2, then yeah, 9B is basically dead and so is beating 2023

Red One bombing is a given.

[dudalb]

Why do I think box office in Florida is going to be down bigtime this weekend?

[joselowe]

I’m horrible at B.O. predictions but it’s odd that people are acting like Wicked sales are only going to be Ariana fans. The Wicked musical has grossed over $3.2 billion worldwide. It’s the second highest grossing Broadway play of all time after The Lion King in the USA, but the Lion King started on Broadway 6 years before Wicked. This film has a base bigger than just Ariana and many parents will likely take their daughters to see this. I’ve seen other posters on BOTF mention their daughters being captivated by the posters in movie theaters. 

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Specific THU numbers by any chance…?

I dont have anything. Let us see if @Menor the Destroyer can post anything but he does focus on just 1 movie at a time. So we have to wait for Venom 3 to release before we can look at November movies. 

[filmpalace]

23 hours ago, filmpalace said:

Terrifier 3 T-2

 

Tickets sold: 194 (+24)

Growth: 14%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 5

 

2,69x Speak No Evil (T-2) – 3,5M

9,23x The Substance (T-2) – 3,0M

 

Average: 3,25M

 

Only two more additional showtimes, leading me to believe this might run into capacity issues. Decided to switch over to horror comps.

Terrifier 3 T-1

 

Tickets sold: 223 (+29)

Growth: 15%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 5

 

2,14x Speak No Evil (T-1) – 2,8M

9,23x The Substance (T-1) – 2,5M

10,14x Never Let Go (T-1) – 3,7M

 

Average: 3M

 

Curious to see what the final day will look like. Still plenty of tickets left for the additional showtimes over here, so there’s room for growth.

[Admin]

Friendly reminder: links to BOP are prohibited in this thread. Until further notice they may only be posted in individual movie discussion threads.

[Ryan C]

21 hours ago, Ryan C said:

 

Terrifier 3

 

T-2

 

Thursday: 1,180 Seats Sold (186.4% Increase From Last Time)

From 12 Theaters

 

Taken as of 9:15PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Yeah, unless this has a pretty low theater count, I can't see this missing $10M on its opening. Despite showtimes starting at 8:00 PM, more showtimes are being added to keep up with demand and this bodes well for the weekend. 

 

We'll see how this does these next two days, but don't be surprised if this is the #1 movie of next weekend. 

 

Terrifier 3

 

T-1

 

Thursday: 1,308 Seats Sold (10.8% Increase From Last Time)

From 13 Theaters

 

Taken as of 6:55 PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: A little bit less of a bump than I expected, but that could also be due to the fact that I'm tracking this one a little earlier than I did last night. Should sell a few more tickets between now and the time I tracked it last night. 

 

Also, though I understand why showtimes are starting at 8:00, that will definitely limit Thursday previews from going too high. Based on what I'm seeing right now (unless it's massively over-indexing in other markets), I would definitely expect a Thursday preview number between $1M-$2M.

 

With more showtimes being added throughout Friday-Sunday, that should keep the film in the reign of its current $10M-$15M projections. Still not seeing $20M, but that could absolutely happen if pace picks up over the weekend. 

Edited 4 hours ago by Ryan C

[Flip]

Before today I would’ve guessed ~55m OW for Wicked, now I think something closer to 75m. Still think Gladiator 2 will beat it but I’m much less confident now.

[Flip]

Wicked’s 1st day will be the 2nd highest I’ve tracked, could possibly reach 2/3 of Deadpool 3’s First day. 

[Ryan C]

Saturday Night

 

T-1

 

Thursday: 314 Seats Sold (From 11 Theaters)

 

Taken as of 7:30 PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Didn't think it was worth tracking this one, but ultimately decided to. 

 

Yeah, I wouldn't expect high numbers for this one. Maybe more people will wait to see it on the weekend, but I would expect anywhere between $2.5M on the low end and $5M on the high end for this film over the weekend I'd expect a Thursday preview number between $500K and $750K (because there'll be more showtimes). 

 

I'll track this one again tomorrow (just before previews start), but this is unfortunately looking like another Dumb Money from last year. Hopefully, stronger awards buzz/attention gives this a bigger boost than that film. 

 

[Eric the Clown]

2 hours ago, joselowe said:

I’m horrible at B.O. predictions but it’s odd that people are acting like Wicked sales are only going to be Ariana fans. The Wicked musical has grossed over $3.2 billion worldwide. It’s the second highest grossing Broadway play of all time after The Lion King in the USA, but the Lion King started on Broadway 6 years before Wicked. This film has a base bigger than just Ariana and many parents will likely take their daughters to see this. I’ve seen other posters on BOTF mention their daughters being captivated by the posters in movie theaters. 

Oh I'm aware. Ariana's one of my favorite artists though and I just want an excuse to talk about how amazing she is

[filmlover]

If Wicked ends up exploding it will be interesting to see if it steals Moana 2's thunder or if they can easily coexist. FWIW, the latter's existence wasn't known until February 7, while the former's marketing officially commenced during the Super Bowl just four days later.

[AniNate]

There's nothing to suggest Moana's thunder has been stolen. It's as buzzy and hyped as it's ever been. What they lacked in early awareness they've more than made up for in late summer blitz marketing. Both movies were promoted ad nauseam during the Olympics.

[swtamira]

46 minutes ago, Flip said:

Wicked’s 1st day will be the 2nd highest I’ve tracked, could possibly reach 2/3 of Deadpool 3’s First day. 

Wouldn't that alone be almost 75 million? Could it get a 100M OW?