The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

43 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

the "hype" I've seen around megalopolis seems too big for it to just result in a 5 million opening; do presales back that up?

It'll likely be super frontloaded due to its niche audience. Mainstream appeal is going to be nonexistent.

Edited September 6 by filmlover

[keysersoze123]

13 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Beetlejuice 2 MTC1

Early Shows Final - 50343/109967 1037656.21 466 shows +10067

Previews(T-1) - 112602/890950 1973676.88 4967 shows +16696

Friday - 137207/1459482 2356328.97 8064 shows +24946

 

Disappointing T-1 sales. Even Early shows did not hit what I expected a day earlier. I think Friday and beyond sales are strong and we are beyond Summer. So 100m is still likely but not too much beyond that. I dont see anything more than 110m. 

 

Beetlejuice 2 MTC1

Previews Final - 166601/893352 2832816.17 4998 shows +53399

Friday - 190600/1462994 3212071.05 8114 shows +53393

 

Mediocre final day. Probably looking at 9m ish just thursday and close to 12m with early shows. At least Friday grew very well and this is going to be about weekend play. I am thinking barely over triple digits OW. 

[Flip]

Hopefully we get a number for just Thursday and not one with EA smushed together

Edited September 6 by Flip

[Ryan C]

10 hours ago, Ryan C said:

 

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

 

T-0

 

Thursday: 5,244 Seats Sold (39.4% Increase From Last Time)

 

Taken as of 3:15PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: At one of the local theaters that I tracked, every single showing (which there was quite a lot) were sold out. Obviously, that couldn't be right, so I have to assume that something happened at that specific theater to the point where they can't show the film. The number of seats sold would've been significantly higher had I been able to track pre-sales at that theater. 

 

Nevertheless, I'm starting to take that maybe Thursday won't be that big of a day. Not to sound incredibly pessimistic when I sounded pretty optimistic yesterday, but we're still talking about a movie that's releasing at the beginning of September (when everyone is going back to school or work), doesn't have an immediate fan-rush to see it, and has appeal to families. It's why I think Saturday and Sunday are going to be more crucial days to see how high this movie goes compared to Thursday or even Friday. 

 

If these next couple of days bring in strong walk-up business, then we could see 2017's It surrender the crown for the biggest September opening to the Ghost with the Most. If not, then we're probably looking at an opening between $100M-$110M (right on que with tracking). 

 

For now though, if Thursday previews (without Wednesday's numbers rolled in) come in at $10M or above, then $100M is definitely gonna happen. It's just a mystery as to how much higher it can get beyond that. 

 

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

 

T-0

 

Friday: 8,319 Seats Sold (From 16 Theaters)

 

Taken as of 2:15AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Since my sanity is almost gone from tracking all these theaters and going through every showtime imaginable (the things I do for pre-sales), I'm not gonna say much here. 

 

All that needs to be said is that if this movie plays like a family film over the weekend, then walk-up business should be a lot better than it was for both the Wednesday EA showings and Thursday. The amount of showtimes and tickets being sold on Friday is giving me hope that Saturday will be just as strong if not more so. Since part of its target demographic is families, I would not be surprised to see a solid increase from traditional Friday-to-Saturday business. 

 

Overall, maybe I'll track Saturday's pre-sales if I regain my sanity back, but for now, this is the end of my Beetlejuice Beetlejuice journey.

 

May we get our third $100M+ opener of the year and for Warner Bros. in the post-pandemic era.

 

 

[CheeseWizard]

3 hours ago, Flip said:

Transformers One (T-14) 

 

11 showtimes/49 tix sold (+3)

 

.32x Inside Out 2  (T-14) [4.16m]

Feels like it’ll be really interesting to see how this movie does next week. Ik hasbro’s got 2 separate events planned for transformers, one on the 13th and another on the 17th. Hell if the trigger collab happens before the movie comes out then I wouldn’t be surprised if that caused a mini sales boost 

[charlie Jatinder]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wild Robot MTC1

Previews - 3019/473321 51813.43 2646 shows

Friday - 3023/649306 46630.11 3569 shows

 

I would have thought this being based on a book, there would be some interest. But presales so far are meh. Let us where it is close to release. 

IDK. That seems VERY strong to me. Friday is around half of Inside Out 2 first day.

[charlie Jatinder]

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice MiniTC2 Final

 

EA - 3552/8006 (26 showings) $58K
Previews - 16476/69700 (267 showings) $200K
 

Didn't end as strong as expected. True Thursday probably $10M. EA ~$3M.

That said, weekend sales are awesome. Can see $30M+ Friday. 

[vafrow]

The Wild Robot, D1, T-21, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 2

New Sales: na

Growth: na

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Tickets per Showtime: 0.1

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

PSales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/5

Early Evening: 0/7

Late Evening: 2/5

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular:  0/1

Regular 3D: 0/1

Dolby: 0/2

Dolby 3D: 2/8

IMAX: 0/4

 

Comps 

0.500x KFP4 for $2.4M

1.000x IO2 for $13.0M

0.667x TFOne for???

Garfield at zero sales unable to calculate 

Average: $7.7M

 

Standard caveat that low numbers early on are subject to wild variances.

 

Most interesting element is format distribution. This has a lot of premium screens and 3D to drive ticket prices. Only a single regular non 3D showing, and it's a matinee. But, they're not charging their premium that they usually do for bigger films on opening weekend. 

 

3D is literally the only option at my local. If I end up seeing this with my kids, I'm waiting until more showtimes are added for a non 3D showing.

[vafrow]

On 8/31/2024 at 9:14 AM, vafrow said:

 

Transformers One, T-20, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 5

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 0.4

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sunday EA Shows

Showtimes: 3

Sales: 8

New sales: 1

Growth: 14%

 

Wednesday EA Shows

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 0

New sales: na

Growth: na

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/1

Early Evening: 3/6

Late Evening: 2/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 0/3

Dolby 3D: 2/4

IMAX: 3/4

4DX: 0/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.333x KFP4 for $1.6M

0.227x IO2 for $3.0M

0.147x DM4 for $4.0M

 

Average: $2.9M

 

I switched up the comps to T minus, which caused a drop. Will probably update only next weekend.

 

Transformers One, T-14, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 11

New Sales since T-20: 6

Growth: 120%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 0.8

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sunday EA Shows

Showtimes: 3

Sales: 34

New sales since T-20: 26

Growth: 325%

 

Wednesday EA Shows

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 0

New sales: na

Growth: na

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/1

Early Evening: 5/6

Late Evening: 6/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 0/3

Dolby 3D: 6/4

IMAX: 5/4

4DX: 0/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.229x KFP4 for $1.1M

0.314x IO2 for $4.1M

0.121x DM4 for $3.3M

2.750x Garfield for $5.3M

 

Average: $3.4M

 

EA Comps (Sunday only)

3.778x Garfield for $2.2M

 

It's doing okay on sales, but it's fantastic on the Sunday EA shows. There's one big group sale that makes up a big amount.

 

Otherwise, nothing too fascinating about the totals. It's in line with expectations.

Edited September 6 by vafrow

[AniNate]

I do know unlike much of the summer tentpoles, Cinemark has held off committing XD to Wild Robot its opening weekend, just been opening with a standard + 3D screen. That might change if they see strong PLF sales with other chains.

[CheeseWizard]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

It's doing okay on sales, but it's fantastic on the Sunday EA shows. There's one big group sale that makes up a big amount

Ngl 26 tickets all at once feels hella sketchy. Is it still looking to do decent opening weekend numbers or is it starting to flail?

 

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice MiniTC2 Final

 

EA - 3552/8006 (26 showings) $58K
Previews - 16476/69700 (267 showings) $200K
 

Didn't end as strong as expected. True Thursday probably $10M. EA ~$3M.

That said, weekend sales are awesome. Can see $30M+ Friday. 

Is something as low as a 96 million opening weekend a possibility here? Part of me keeps thinking it’ll just barely be under 3 digits 

[AniNate]

If BJ has a $30 mil Friday it's not going to finish under $100mil for the weekend.

[vafrow]

1 minute ago, CheeseWizard said:

Ngl 26 tickets all at once feels hella sketchy. Is it still looking to do decent opening weekend numbers or is it starting to flail?

 

This is my first posted update since last weekend, so it's not all at once. I still track daily, and it was somewhat spread out.

 

That said, there's a group booking of 14 tickets in one location that booked a few days ago.

 

It's too early to be making bold predictions. However, for preview sales, it's worth noting that it stagnated all week before seeing a bump in today's count. If I posted yesterday, the average forecast would have been under $2M.

 

But it's also a kids film, but an IP that might target a bit older, but also opening in a non traditional time slot. It's hard to have a strong read on how it will finish. None of the comps are great, especially with EA shows that will distort demand.

[AniNate]

A lot of the TF One tracking in this thread has been pretty consistent even with the uncertainties. Seems like it's heading for a $40mil ish opening.

[CheeseWizard]

16 minutes ago, vafrow said:

But it's also a kids film, but an IP that might target a bit older, but also opening in a non traditional time slot. It's hard to have a strong read on how it will finish. None of the comps are great, especially with EA shows that will distort demand.

Fair. There’s a lot to think of here. Is a 40 mil domestic opening for a 92 million budget decent?

20 minutes ago, AniNate said:

If BJ has a $30 mil Friday it's not going to finish under $100mil for the weekend.

Please don’t abbreviate it to that 

[keysersoze123]

21 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Beetlejuice 2 MTC2

Early shows Final - 31223/57854 535360.60 347 shows

Previews(T-1) - 77375/731304 1112196.61 5886 shows

Friday - 104695/1115019 1418643.17 8626 shows

 

I am thinking 2.75m for Early BO. Thursday looks like struggling to 11m by itself. If the studio combine both I am thinking 13.5m overall previews for the movie. 

Beetlejuice 2 MTC2 Previews Final - 124869/747300 1752955.74 6029 shows 

 

Here as well the walkups were not that good. 

[vafrow]

57 minutes ago, CheeseWizard said:

Fair. There’s a lot to think of here. Is a 40 mil domestic opening for a 92 million budget decent? 

 

That's a discussion for the film's thread. We just track the numbers here.

 

Although, hitting $40M would make this the 9th biggest September opening weekend, and make this month the only time two September films opened to above $40M. It's hard to be too negative with that result.

[AniNate]

It would be far better than Mutant Mayhem, which Paramount does seem to be satisfied with as an IP revival.

 

There has been some concern that TFOne and Wild Robot would be eating into each other's audiences opening right next to each other, tracking right now indicates that might be a misplaced fear.

[vale9001]

For beetle is gonna be a very great weekend anyway, from 90M to 120M Just very good.

 

Maybe some people here are overstimating the fact the movie is "for families". I don't know what the rating is but It's Tim Burton, you can expect scary - kinda disturbing scenes even in a more light comedy context. 

 

I think Kids and young people could be a target but not families with children like It's an animated movie.

Edited September 6 by vale9001

[YM!]

2 hours ago, CheeseWizard said:

Please don’t abbreviate it to that 

You’re right. It’s BJBJ.