The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

4 minutes ago, Flip said:

AMC shows near me are almost double what they were this morning, clearly responding to the demand 

Also, The Exorcist moving from 10/13, now there are Dolby and IMAX shows all day when it was just 1-2 showtimes per day previously. The tickets are nonrefundable so I wonder if people who bought 2D tickets earlier today or for a later date will double dip.

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

 

https://moviescast.xyz/the-eras-tour-and-amc-infuriates-studios-creates-chaos-indiewire/

 

Quote

Sources suggest the terms of this release, including its announcement, are dictated by Swift’s team, not AMC. The concert’s ticket prices are preset at $19.89 for adults, $13.13 for children not including taxes and fees. That’s unusual, if not illegal; distributors are prohibited from dictating tickets prices and it’s unclear what loophole might have been used here. That also violates industry norms of variable pricing for matinees, senior discounts, and different regions. Manhattan and Los Angeles theaters cost more than a small Midwestern town, but not here. Also disregarded are theaters’ benefit programs like AMC Stubs.

 

 

[SpiderByte]

Idk if they were only just added but where I am there are 6pm shows that are sold/very full but the 9pm ones are... basically empty

Edited September 1, 2023 by SpiderByte

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, Flip said:

AMC shows near me are almost double what they were this morning, clearly responding to the demand 

 

Sunday showtimes, at least, exploded from what I presume they were at one of the local MTC2s:

 

 

FWIW, MTC2 showtimes locally are also increasing on Friday, though not to the same degree.

 

Gonna be real curious to see how these fill out as word gets out them.

(part of my curiosity to see Day 2 sales as word of this mammoth explosion of sales gets out and attracts a crowd from the news alone) 

[VanillaSkies]

AMC Lincoln Square just added IMAX showtimes for the rest of the day Saturday. Now 4 showtimes instead of 1.
 

Same with Dolby, now 4 showtimes instead of 1. We can expect a nice bump again from these premium seats/showtimes becoming available everywhere.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

Were Indiewire and the industry this pressed about the ticket prices of BTS or the Billie Eilish concert movies, plz...

 

 

But my goodness the chaos if the AMPTP gets the Taylor Swift concert movie cancelled or disrupted somehow.. I don't see that happening seriously

[ThomasNicole]

3 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

I think people predicting over Barbie are really overestimating the legs a concert movie will have

I feel that you said this a lot today, we know this.
 

But while all these movies are frontloaded, there’s also spillover effect when the demand is too big. At least when it comes to OW, the signs are already appearing, the thing is selling gangsbusters for the 4 days, so honestly there’s no reason to expect it to be a 1 day huge thing that will vanish by Friday. 
 

If it will do well on the second weekend? Probably no, but it doesn’t need to because the OW will be huge and could be insane if the screens and shows turn out to be a lot more than it is now.

[SpiderByte]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

If it will do well on the second weekend? Probably no,

So you said all that and then literally agreed with me that it'd be frontloaded???

 

I do think think this will be used to show that this is definitely a big year for women leads (for lack of a better term since...this is a concert), which I'm certain the srduoos will miss and think "MORE CONCERT MOVIES" the same way Barbie they decided to follow that up with JJ Abrams Hot Wheels

[Nova]

I see the spill over already started to happen at my theater. On the 20th for example, 2/7 shows are already sold out.

 

 

She was smart to have this exclusive to the weekends. 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Checked my ex-AMC and they’ve also added new showings for Eras. The original ones are also almost completely sold out.

[ThomasNicole]

19 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

So you said all that and then literally agreed with me that it'd be frontloaded???

 

I do think think this will be used to show that this is definitely a big year for women leads (for lack of a better term since...this is a concert), which I'm certain the srduoos will miss and think "MORE CONCERT MOVIES" the same way Barbie they decided to follow that up with JJ Abrams Hot Wheels

But aren’t you talking about frontloadness even during it’s OW? I’m talking about this 

 

When it comes to second weekend everyone agrees with you 

[ThomasNicole]

My only concern is Scorsese having his movie delayed to November or something 

 

That would be quite ageist from Taylor jk

[JustWatching]

29 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Checked my ex-AMC and they’ve also added new showings for Eras. The original ones are also almost completely sold out.

Yah my local Cinemark went from 4 to 7 on Friday and the original four are around 40-60% sold. 15 shows scheduled for Saturday and 13 Sunday.

[katnisscinnaplex]

14 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Equalizer 3	T-0	Jax	5	51	71*	250	8,874	2.82%
		Phx	6	41	70	241	7,459	3.23%
		Ral	8	56	93	318	8,050	3.95%
	Total		19	148	234	809	24,383	3.32%

*A couple of theaters in the Jacksonville area have locked their shows due to the hurricane.  

 

Equalizer 3 T-0 comps 

 - F9 - .265x (1.88m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .621x (2.86m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 2.2x (3.19m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .976x (2.93m)

 - Creed III - .476x (2.59m)

 - Gran Turismo (Thu) - 2.593x (3.63m)

 - Meg 2 - 1.2x (3.84m)

 

Size adjusted avg - 2.99m

Growth model forecast - 2.96m

 

Equalizer pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Equalizer 3	116.89%	32.44%	38.89%	40.70%
F9: The Fast Saga	111.12%	28.04%	17.08%	40.17%
Bullet Train + EA	108.65%	30.93%	29.23%	30.33%
Knock at the Cabin	117.75%	24.26%	22.66%	47.20%
Black Phone + EA			25.32%	42.44%
Creed III Total	119.07%	35.70%	32.67%	32.71%
Gran Turismo	95.00%	35.00%	81.73%	20.00%
Meg 2	202.24%	52.91%		47.16%

 

Pace is right in line with the comps.  Since Jacksonville and partially Raleigh are affected by hurricane, I'll up my projection to 3.2m. 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Equalizer 3	1-Hr	Jax	5	51	321	571	8,874	6.43%
		Phx	6	41	102	343	7,459	4.60%
		Ral	8	56	299	617	8,050	7.66%
	Total		19	148	722	1,531	24,383	6.28%

*Sales taken at T-1 hr

 

Equalizer 3 T-1 hr comps 

 - F9 - .399x (2.83m)

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - 1.03x (2.86m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - missed

 - Black Phone (Thu) - 1.33x (3.46m)

 - Creed III - .715x (3.18m)

 - Gran Turismo (Thu) - 3.43x (4.8m)

 - Meg 2 - 1.33x (4.25m)

All action movies - 3.09m

All R movies - 3.47m

All movies - 3.29m

 

Size adjusted avg - 3.52m

Growth model forecast - 3.56m

 

Equalizer pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Equalizer 3	237.97%	38.19%	30.36%	89.25%
F9: The Fast Saga	121.73%	34.10%	21.05%	25.48%
Bullet Train	183.24%	36.19%	27.46%	42.43%
Black Phone	259.69%	50.94%	32.48%	70.27%
Creed III	240.00%	39.37%	30.63%	65.79%
Gran Turismo	106.94%	45.83%	76.07%	43.27%
Meg 2	285.95%	54.18%	64.96%	71.22%

 

Ran these earlier but was too busy to post.  Solid final day ahead of all comps.  Creed and Black Phone ended up closest pace-wise.  I'll go with 3.4m for previews.

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Equalizer 3 MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 36038/504526 605186.12 2614 shows +10700

Friday - 33470/822283 540967.00 4287 shows

 

Really strong T-1 for Equalizer. Normally I would say somewhere around 3.75-4x of T-1 would be done by end of day tomorrow. That is 75K finish. Even if its skews MTC1 due to "urban" audience, I dont see how it does not do something like 3.7m previews.

 

I am also thinking something like 8/10/9/7 for rest of the 4 day weekend for upper 30s 4 day weekend. 

Equalizer 3 MTC1

Previews Final - 76164/505398 1216085.88 2623 shows

Friday - 50446/824751 798016.56 4305 shows

 

I am glad walk ups were really good and it finished as I expected yesterday. No change in my predictions. I am expecting MTC1 to over index and calling for ~3.75m previews.

 

Weekend should play as what I predicted yesterday or slightly less. I would say 35m+ over 4 days.   

[keysersoze123]

11 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour ( < 6 hours of sales) MTC1 OD - 330676/510141 6861100.24 2793 shows

 

This is not even full coverage as theaters are adding more shows. I will update end of day to see how big it goes. 

 

Comps DS2 did 231342(3.94m) OD presales. This is  NWH territory. We dont have NWH Day 1 data but T-7 was at 591273. 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour  MTC1 Friday - 398934/620232 8323096.26 3374 shows

 

Almost 400K ticket on day 1 sales is just nuts. its growth from this afternoon itself makes for a crazy strong OD 🙂 I will post sat/sun tomorrow but I am expecting 900k+(for the whole weekend).

Edited September 1, 2023 by keysersoze123

[Nova]

 

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour  MTC1 Friday - 398934/620232 8323096.26 3374 shows

 

Almost 400K ticket on day 1 sales is just nuts. its growth from this afternoon itself makes for a crazy strong OD 🙂 I will post sat/sun tomorrow but I am expecting 900k+ with those 2 days pre sales.

Put me down for $100M opening weekend. 

[Relevation]

4 minutes ago, Nova said:

 

Put me down for $100M opening weekend. 

Put me down for $200M+ opening weekend.

[Arlborn]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour  MTC1 Friday - 398934/620232 8323096.26 3374 shows

 

Almost 400K ticket on day 1 sales is just nuts. its growth from this afternoon itself makes for a crazy strong OD 🙂 I will post sat/sun tomorrow but I am expecting 900k+(for the whole weekend).

Is Barbie OW going down?

[charlie Jatinder]

15 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

Is Barbie OW going down?

Don't expect this to play like movies I guess. Will be very presales heavy. Unless ofcourse.