The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Shawn Robbins]

On 11/3/2023 at 6:47 PM, Porthos said:

 

Took a look around The Usual Suspect and didn't see anything.  Also checked various Twitter accounts and nada.  Likely to get some sort of update when the first weekend numbers get reported, but since this is such a blah weekend, hasn't been an early look at anything yet.

 

If we get no love from Deadline or any of the others @Shawn might be able to bug A24 and/or find out through his channels.

450k

 

@TheFlatLannister

[M37]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Marvels MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 70619/736948 1379110.53 3864 shows +6154

Friday - 56514/1121557 1047460.06 5830 shows +8857

 

Eternals - 8373/96944 // it was Monday after Halloween weekend. 

Flash ~ 8800 // not sure why it boosted that much. But it was having mediocre boost until then. 

 

Friday - Flash was at 61K while eternals was at 86111. I think at this point 50m OW looks safe to me unless reviews absolutely stink. But even that may not have that much impact on OW. that will impact legs more than OW I think.  

Admittedly I don't track/follow Friday numbers as closely, but honestly do not understand the math that gets you to believing not only $50M OW is possible, but "safe"?

 

If you look at the full final week for Eternals Friday (yeah, I broke down and finally went and looked up those numbers),

Quote

Friday(T-8) - 59699/731665 1033139.25 3633 shows

MTC1 Friday(T-2) - 123972/992570 2023116.64 5392 shows +21644

MTC1 Friday PS End - 166712/1004158 2653459.74 5519 shows

MTC1 - 343722/1018853 5160402.58 5731 shows

... ignoring the day by day because of Halloween depression and catch-up effect, that same overall growth would project to ~77.5K (+108%) at T-2 (for Fri, T-1 for Thursday), ~104K (+179%) for PS final, and ~215K final, below the 262K you suggested yesterday. Adjusting for ATP hikes, that's like a ~$14M TFri, right?

 

Personally, seems like all numbers are converging towards a preview value starting with a $6 and OW starting with a $4, its just a question of whether its on the higher or lower end of those ranges

[keysersoze123]

13 minutes ago, M37 said:

Admittedly I don't track/follow Friday numbers as closely, but honestly do not understand the math that gets you to believing not only $50M OW is possible, but "safe"?

 

If you look at the full final week for Eternals Friday (yeah, I broke down and finally went and looked up those numbers),

... ignoring the day by day because of Halloween depression and catch-up effect, that same overall growth would project to ~77.5K (+108%) at T-2 (for Fri, T-1 for Thursday), ~104K (+179%) for PS final, and ~215K final, below the 262K you suggested yesterday. Adjusting for ATP hikes, that's like a ~$14M TFri, right?

 

Personally, seems like all numbers are converging towards a preview value starting with a $6 and OW starting with a $4, its just a question of whether its on the higher or lower end of those ranges

I expect it to get boosted next 2 days due to late reactions/reviews. Even bad news is better than no news IMO. Plus fandango deal should help with smaller markets where its selling nothing. I could be wrong but its monday growth was in line with my expectations. If tuesday growth is not good enough I will change my predictions. I am thinking some of the MCU regulars who are staying on the side will check it out. Basically I am expecting the legendary "MCU Walkups". 

 

If I am wrong I certainly wont be unhappy. But I used to under predict MCU movies for past decade or so :-) So I hope I am on the other side. 

 

Edit: I am also going more by Flash than Eternals. I think its going to catch up to Flash Friday before the shows start. No reason for this movie to have worse walkups on friday with Veteran's day holiday.

Edited November 7, 2023 by keysersoze123

[reddevil19]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Even bad news is better than no news IMO.

For what it's worth from a non-tracker, I do  agree with that rationale. I also am having trouble seeing Catwoman level reviews (or worse), and I think it would require that sort of negative reaction to kill any last minute acceleration. 

[TwoMisfits]

So, for this weekend's set...Marvels did not expand at my 1st local (PLF 14 one).

 

Marvels has 4 screens and 17 showings - 11 PLF / 6 reg - they are probably gonna cry about the Fandango IMAX deal b/c they can't take part, so those PLF shows may go wanting.  6 reg shows is kinda crazy, but we all have seen that GA is not jumping on board still, so I guess they are cutting losses.

 

Other Opens

Journey to Bethlehem -1 screen (midsize) - playing the long game here

The Holdovers - 1 screen (midsize)

 

Holdovers

FNAF - 2 screens (drops from 5 last week, when it opened with 4, b/c there was nothing)

Taylor Swift - 1 screen 

Killers of the Flower Moon - 1 screen

Priscilla - 1 screen

Exorcist (HOW is this still here - shows the total weakness of the market right now and the Marvels as well) - 1 screen

What Happens Later - 1 screen

Foreign Films (3 of them) - 1 shared screen

 

Drops

Glisten and the Merry Mission (got 1 week), After Death (got 2 weeks), A Haunting in Venice, the Gran Turismo re-expansion (yeah, last weekend was rough), foreign films

[Giorno]

i'm not so sure walkups will be there unless it gets incredible reviews, i can see a lot of women saving their money for Hunger Games S&B and Wish

[keysersoze123]

Hunger Games is like 55% of Marvels at MTC1 but its pace is like 60% more at similar point. I think it will catch up by its release date unless Marvels has a great finish. 

[M37]

28 minutes ago, Giorno said:

i'm not so sure walkups will be there unless it gets incredible reviews, i can see a lot of women saving their money for Hunger Games S&B and Wish

Mentioned this in the Marvels thread, but with presales heavier in MTC1, Thursday and for PLF, all generally younger male-skewing pulls, IMO there should be no expectation of female-skewing audience

 

Won't be surprised if it matches fairly closely with Eternals tbh (from Deadline)

Quote

Other stats on Eternals: updated demos through Saturday were 61% males, 39% females, 55% between 18-34 and 53% under 25. General audience diversity make-up per PostTrak was 51% Caucasian, 23% Hispanic and Latino, 13% African American and 9% Asian. General audience made up 85% of the pic’s business while parents and kids under 12 combined were 15%.

Men under 25 made up 31% of the crowd (76% grade), Men over 25 30% (78%), Women under 25 were 22% (80%) and women over 25 at 17% (who liked it the most at 81%).

 

[Giorno]

The Marvels (D-2):

 

1,312 at 10 Houston AMC's/ +261 YD

 

Comps:

 

0.6x The Flash = $5.82m

 

0.885x Black Adam = $6.73m

 

[filmlover]

Sure this has been asked a bunch (might be helpful to pin it somewhere) but when exactly are reviews/reactions landing again? Thanks.

[DInky]

11 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Sure this has been asked a bunch (might be helpful to pin it somewhere) but when exactly are reviews/reactions landing again? Thanks.

 

Reactions in 9.5 hours (9PM PT today) and reviews in 21.5 hours (9AM PT Wednesday)

Edited November 7, 2023 by DInky

[keysersoze123]

So the Critics screening is happening this evening. 9PM PT is as late is possible :-)

[DInky]

My showing tomorrow starts the exact time the review embargo is lifted lol.

[Issac Newton]

Deadline: Currently presales for The Marvels are just north of $5M which are on par with Warner Bros/DC’s The Flash, that movie flaming out with a $55M start stateside. Yikes. The worry is that if previews, which start Thursday at 3PM, come in north of $6M, The Marvels’ weekend will crater to $40M+.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Deadline: Currently presales for The Marvels are just north of $5M which are on par with Warner Bros/DC’s The Flash, that movie flaming out with a $55M start stateside. Yikes. The worry is that if previews, which start Thursday at 3PM, come in north of $6M, The Marvels’ weekend will crater to $40M+.

 

Looks like Deadline has decided to rip off the bandaid.

[Zakiyyah6]

Have reviews ever saved a low opening comic book movie not named Batman Begins? I keep seeing people saying reviews could save it and compare it to a Pixar movie but comic book movies don't have Pixar style legs unless they are released around Christmas time. Reviews didn't save Superman Returns and a few other comic book films, so why would they save this one? 

Edited November 7, 2023 by Zakiyyah6

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Looks like Deadline has decided to rip off the bandaid.

Weird words being used. What will happen if it goes south !!!

[Eric is Anxious]

Quorum Updates

Anyone But You T-45: 20.87%

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom T-45: 51.74%

The Boys in the Boat T-48: 16.9%

Distant T-73: 10.05%

Drive-Away Dolls T-108: 13.15%

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire T-157: 33.64%

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes T-199: 42.5%

Captain America: Brave New World T-262: 47.51%

 

Wonka T-39: 52.96% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 93% chance of 50M, 71% chance of 60M, 64% chance of 70M, 43% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 60M, 67% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 100M

 

The Beekeeper T-66: 25.24% Awareness

Final Awareness: 58% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 61% chance of 10M, 39% chance of 20M

[Eric is Anxious]

Wonka is really only little more than a month away. I just...I just can't guys.

 

[Grand Cine]

 

22 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Deadline: Currently presales for The Marvels are just north of $5M which are on par with Warner Bros/DC’s The Flash, that movie flaming out with a $55M start stateside. Yikes. The worry is that if previews, which start Thursday at 3PM, come in north of $6M, The Marvels’ weekend will crater to $40M+.

Deadline has been at both extremes with this film