The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

48 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont think you are discounting it sufficiently. What is your ATP vs discount TP. its more than 10% for sure. 

I don't actively keep track of ATP so im not sure. 

[VanillaSkies]

So, um, plot twist. 
Initial reactions for The Marvels hit at midnight and are pretty damn strong. If the reviews are decent and it gets 70%+ on RT, could we see a nice recovery for the weekend (meaning 50+ at least)?

[Nicson]

I'm seeing mixed results though. 

[grim22]

17 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

So, um, plot twist. 
Initial reactions for The Marvels hit at midnight and are pretty damn strong. If the reviews are decent and it gets 70%+ on RT, could we see a nice recovery for the weekend (meaning 50+ at least)?

Calling the reactions "pretty damn strong" seems like a mischaracterization. It feels like middle of the road more than damn strong.

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Weird. I cannot see it miss 6m due to MTC1 numbers. Its looking like 7m based on trends. But rest of MTC have sucked big time. Among MiniTCs Drafthouse and Emagine numbers are not bad. But MiniTC2 have been atrocious. I wonder if @DAJK can provide the picture for Canada. 

Been super busy on practicum, so haven’t been able to do in-depth analyses, but quick checks and comparisons to old data are showing me the same thing. Picking up, but not significantly, I’d wager 6-6.5 for now.

[Nicson]

The thing that sets me off is that all they talk about are the post-credit scenes and Iman's performance. This sounds...strangely similar to the Quantumania reviews

[VanillaSkies]

9 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Calling the reactions "pretty damn strong" seems like a mischaracterization. It feels like middle of the road more than damn strong.

ok, shall we say way stronger than the internet would have had us believe? There is a lot of praise coming from those reactions, which obviously is somewhat expected from premieres, but still a little unexpected considering the discourse recently around the film.
But it could definitely be enough to move the needle a bit for the weekend, which was my actual question… how it relates to/might affect the final box office trends.

[MovieMan89]

The way I will feel insanely validated if Iman is the bright spot show stealer of all this like I have insisted for months she would be. She is a natural star. Though even more tragic for her sake about the movie’s coming performance 

[Mulder]

5 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

ok, shall we say way stronger than the internet would have had us believe? There is a lot of praise coming from those reactions, which obviously is somewhat expected from premieres, but still a little unexpected considering the discourse recently around the film.
But it could definitely be enough to move the needle a bit for the weekend, which was my actual question… how it relates to/might affect the final box office trends.

This late and not insanely strong, not really. Flash for example got overall fresh reviews on RT but it didn't really move the needle either way.

[Psylocke]

Given all the reactions what will it’s potential RT be for The Marvels and impact on ticket sales?

[keysersoze123]

14 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Marvels MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 70619/736948 1379110.53 3864 shows +6154

Friday - 56514/1121557 1047460.06 5830 shows +8857

 

Eternals - 8373/96944 // it was Monday after Halloween weekend. 

Flash ~ 8800 // not sure why it boosted that much. But it was having mediocre boost until then. 

 

Friday - Flash was at 61K while eternals was at 86111. I think at this point 50m OW looks safe to me unless reviews absolutely stink. But even that may not have that much impact on OW. that will impact legs more than OW I think.  

The Marvels MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 81163/781801 1569207.75 4238 shows +10544

Friday - 68310/1269579 1248100.24 6922 shows  +11796

 

It did increase its pace from yesterday(its around 27 hrs of data). I would say inline and i am expecting significantly bigger increase tomorrow as reactions/reviews will be out.  No update in my prediction. At least MTC1 will look like finishing like a 7m+ previews. 

 

For Friday Eternals increased 16217. Lack of any catalyst limited Marvels potential. I am expecting much bigger than low 30s increase that Eternals saw on its Wednesday. 

[Porthos]

I think the point @VanillaSkies is making is that the initial reactions coming out right now for The Marvels is nowhere close to a Morbius level bad or anything else that warranted a last minute embargo/review drop.

 

To keep it on topic, maybe it wouldn't have moved pre-sales all that much had social media reactions been mid/early last week (say around T-10 to T-8) with a review drop at T-4 or T-3.  But then again, maybe they would!  The Marvels badly needed any sort of shot in the arm this time last week and I do think reactions so far have been good enough to have had a chance.  Especially with folks noting the "fun" factor.

 

I saw a comparison to The Flash's reviews, and fair enough.  Except that had previews just under 10m and it would be a major miracle for The Marvels to come even close to that.

 

Now we don't know what the RT score will end up being.  But it's looking... kinda like Disney made at least some level of miscalculation when it came to timing for reactions/reviews.  How big of a miscalculation is the open question.

[Porthos]

On 10/16/2023 at 11:40 PM, Porthos said:

Hard to do a direct compare, since Wish was on sale for a couple of days prior to today.  But if we consider today to be the first "real" day of pre-sales, then....

 

Wish did pretty decently all things considered, locally.

 

As of a little while ago, Wish was at 39 tickets sold ih the Greater Sacto Area.

 

As a compare/contrast Elemental sold 37 tickets on its first day here.

 

So about the same, but given it's an even longer pre-sale window, maybe a tiny bit better.  Should mean a preview of at least in the range of Elemental, if one thinks a sample size of 1 means anything (and I don't).

 

(needless to say, not even a Q&D look, if that, for a long time)

 

Other reports in about an hour or so from now.

 

Quick and Dirty Wish Sacramento Report [T-14]

300/11241 (2.67% sold) [+19 tickets]  [62/994 EA | 238/10247 Tue]

 

1.89873x Elemental at T-14 [NO COMP YET DUE TO MIX OF EA & DISCOUNT TUESDAY]

0.98039x Elemental at T-7

---

TUESDAY ONLY COMP:
1.00847x TMNT:MM at T-12 [3.83m - TUE ONLY]

 

====
 

So.  So I've been softing for a while now that I liked what I was seeing out of Sacramento when it came to Wish, and now maybe people might understand why.  I've been watching it for the last few days and it really is about one week ahead of Elemental on raw ticket sales.  This time last week, though I didn't post it since I didn't have a T-21 number for Elemental, Wish was around 150-ish tickets sold, more or less.  Didn't write down the exact number, but noted with interest that it was about the same-is place as Elemental was at T-14.

 

And lookie here, more or less the same place as Elemental was at T-7.

 

Now there are two complicating factors:  Discount Tuesday and Early Access.  If I had a TMNT number for T-14, I could probably try to piece together some sort of total comp out of the disparate parts.  Problem is, Paramount only reported a Tues Number (ie without EA sales factored in) and Disney very very likely will be reporting Sat sales as part of its Tue preview.

 

Well, that's my bet at least, especially with the level of showings it has on Sat.

 

Can say that on pure Tuesday sales, Wish has already caught up to where TMNT:MM was at T-12.  Now TMNT had far more Sneaks/EA sales, but Paramount didn't report those so... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Anyway, all I can say is that Wish is doing much better than Elemental was at this stage, and is almost certainly decently ahead of it even with DT pricing factored in. Also will note that there is 1] A lot of room for EA sales and 2] Comparatively speaking not as many EA sales as some films have had that had Sat EA/Sneaks.

 

Doesn't mean it's gonna be a breakout or be a leggy massive hit or anything else.  But "liking what I'm seeing out of Sacramento"?!?  Oh yes, very much so.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	30285	32318	2033	6.29%

 

Total Showings Added Today	37
Total Seats Added Today	2929
Total Seats Sold Today	229

 

T-3 Comps:

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	59.15		397	3437		0/118	13711/17148	20.04%		6409	31.72%		6.35m
GOTG3	32.24		587	6306		0/273	29558/35864	17.58%		10750	18.91%		5.64m
TLM	57.48		482	3537		0/201	24221/27758	12.74%		6561	30.99%		5.92m
AtSV	45.59		516	4459		0/142	18015/22474	19.84%		9744	20.86%		7.91m
Flash	84.25		217	2413		0/193	23824/26237	9.20%		5327	38.16%		8.17m
Indy 5	80.51		258	2525		0/158	21009/23534	10.73%		4767	42.65%		5.80m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     352/9710  [3.63% sold]
Matinee:    84/2946  [2.85% | 4.13% of all tickets sold]
3D:            158/5133  [3.08% | 7.77% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Insert LARRY_DAVID_EHH_IT_COULD_BE_WORSE.GIF HERE

 

I mean, it could be worse.  It's still hanging tough with that Eternals comp, even with Halloween now in the rear view mirror for Eternals (this was Nov 1 for Eternals).  Maybe still a bit of a Halloween hangover, I suppose.  But, I dunno... Maybe, maybe the floor has been reached.  Still perhaps looking at 5.5 - 6.5 as something of a (current) range but I don't think the bottom is still falling out, which isn't nothing.  Maybe not all that much, but not nothing.

 

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	266	31775	34162	2387	6.99%

 

 

Total Showings Added Today	26
Total Seats Added Today	1844
Total Seats Sold Today	354

 

T-2 Comps:

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	60.69		496	3933		0/130	14226/18159	21.66%		6409	37.24%		6.52m
GOTG3	33.20		883	7189		0/315	31900/39089	18.39%		10750	22.20%		5.81m
TLM	60.10		435	3972		0/221	24918/28890	13.75%		6561	36.38%		6.19m
AtSV	44.18		944	5403		0/230	23909/29312	18.43%		9744	24.50%		7.67m
Flash	84.59		409	2822		0/197	23670/26492	10.65%		5327	44.81%		8.20m
Indy 5	82.54		367	2892		0/169	21180/24072	12.01%		4767	50.07%		5.94m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     430/10683  [4.03% sold]
Matinee:    102/3173  [3.21% | 4.27% of all tickets sold]
3D:            180/5133  [3.51% | 7.54% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Huh.

 

...

 

Oh, maybe I should add something more than "Huh."?  Fair enough. 

 

No, I don't think nearly enough time has passed for any sort or reactions to have set in, as the vast majority of these sales should have been before 9pm my time.  Still...  Still I gotta say this exceeded my expectations today by more than a little.  Def seems to be trending back upward and I think this is before any real sort of reaction to social media reactions one way or the other. 

 

Still is an open question where the RT score will land, but right now, not only has The Marvels stopped the bleeding, it is gaining on the lower comps again. Enough so that 7m is back on the table?  Dunno as it's got lot of ground to make up.  Buuuut, well, let's see what Tomato Law has to say. 🙂

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, grim22 said:

Calling the reactions "pretty damn strong" seems like a mischaracterization. It feels like middle of the road more than damn strong.

That’s all you need for a fresh score on RT remember. 

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	266	31775	34162	2387	6.99%

 

 

Total Showings Added Today	26
Total Seats Added Today	1844
Total Seats Sold Today	354

 

T-2 Comps:

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	60.69		496	3933		0/130	14226/18159	21.66%		6409	37.24%		6.52m
GOTG3	33.20		883	7189		0/315	31900/39089	18.39%		10750	22.20%		5.81m
TLM	60.10		435	3972		0/221	24918/28890	13.75%		6561	36.38%		6.19m
AtSV	44.18		944	5403		0/230	23909/29312	18.43%		9744	24.50%		7.67m
Flash	84.59		409	2822		0/197	23670/26492	10.65%		5327	44.81%		8.20m
Indy 5	82.54		367	2892		0/169	21180/24072	12.01%		4767	50.07%		5.94m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     430/10683  [4.03% sold]
Matinee:    102/3173  [3.21% | 4.27% of all tickets sold]
3D:            180/5133  [3.51% | 7.54% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Huh.

 

...

 

Oh, maybe I should add something more than "Huh."?  Fair enough. 

 

No, I don't think nearly enough time has passed for any sort or reactions to have set in, as the vast majority of these sales should have been before 9pm my time.  Still...  Still I gotta say this exceeded my expectations today by more than a little.  Def seems to be trending back upward and I think this is before any real sort of reaction to social media reactions one way or the other. 

 

Still is an open question where the RT score will land, but right now, not only has The Marvels stopped the bleeding, it is gaining on the lower comps again. Enough so that 7m is back on the table?  Dunno as it's got lot of ground to make up.  Buuuut, well, let's see what Tomato Law has to say. 🙂

Could be chalked up to the trailer getting people talking again/maybe pushed a few people who were on the edge. They basically spoiled the post-credit which might've gotten a few people to decide to take the plunge.

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Could be chalked up to the trailer getting people talking again/maybe pushed a few people who were on the edge. They basically spoiled the post-credit which might've gotten a few people to decide to take the plunge.

 

Yeah, the trailer is def a possibility. Either that, or... GRACE RANDOLPH.... HER POWAH!!!!!!

 

...

 

Okay, maybe not. 😛

 

But since you brought that up, I do think there is something that had a decent amount of discussion at the start of pre-sales but didn't get quite as much as it maybe deserved recently:  The late social media embargo lift just all kinds of messed up the comps we had since most of them had embargo lifts earlier and thus The Marvels was at a severe disadvantage in the T-10 to T-4 area.

 

@M37 has very rightly noted how holidays have messed with the timing of some comps.  Similarly, I've been thinking that the timing of the late social/review embargoes had the potential to cause comps to lift on TWTh.  Still is only potential, but if The Marvels gets any sort of reaction/review bounce on top of the normal acceleration that is seen on WTh, then that should help the comps.  Or at least could.

 

Find out soon enough.

[charlie Jatinder]

Seems like Marvels may manage to open 1.5 times my low-end last week. 

[TwoMisfits]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Weird. I cannot see it miss 6m due to MTC1 numbers. Its looking like 7m based on trends. But rest of MTC have sucked big time. Among MiniTCs Drafthouse and Emagine numbers are not bad. But MiniTC2 have been atrocious. I wonder if @DAJK can provide the picture for Canada. 

 

MTC 1 has a ton of the IMAX screens that got the $15 off national deal yesterday - MTC 1 would have taken those GA buyers, leaving the other MTCs again with...not much...

 

MTC 1 (and to a lesser extent 3) will overindex b/c they have the unlimited movies/month subs that MTC 2 and others do not...and now more so thanks to the IMAX only deal on Fandango...

[YM!]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Wish Sacramento Report [T-14]

300/11241 (2.67% sold) [+19 tickets]  [62/994 EA | 238/10247 Tue]

 

1.89873x Elemental at T-14 [NO COMP YET DUE TO MIX OF EA & DISCOUNT TUESDAY]

0.98039x Elemental at T-7

---

TUESDAY ONLY COMP:
1.00847x TMNT:MM at T-12 [3.83m - TUE ONLY]

 

====
 

So.  So I've been softing for a while now that I liked what I was seeing out of Sacramento when it came to Wish, and now maybe people might understand why.  I've been watching it for the last few days and it really is about one week ahead of Elemental on raw ticket sales.  This time last week, though I didn't post it since I didn't have a T-21 number for Elemental, Wish was around 150-ish tickets sold, more or less.  Didn't write down the exact number, but noted with interest that it was about the same-is place as Elemental was at T-14.

 

And lookie here, more or less the same place as Elemental was at T-7.

 

Now there are two complicating factors:  Discount Tuesday and Early Access.  If I had a TMNT number for T-14, I could probably try to piece together some sort of total comp out of the disparate parts.  Problem is, Paramount only reported a Tues Number (ie without EA sales factored in) and Disney very very likely will be reporting Sat sales as part of its Tue preview.

 

Well, that's my bet at least, especially with the level of showings it has on Sat.

 

Can say that on pure Tuesday sales, Wish has already caught up to where TMNT:MM was at T-12.  Now TMNT had far more Sneaks/EA sales, but Paramount didn't report those so... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Anyway, all I can say is that Wish is doing much better than Elemental was at this stage, and is almost certainly decently ahead of it even with DT pricing factored in. Also will note that there is 1] A lot of room for EA sales and 2] Comparatively speaking not as many EA sales as some films have had that had Sat EA/Sneaks.

 

Doesn't mean it's gonna be a breakout or be a leggy massive hit or anything else.  But "liking what I'm seeing out of Sacramento"?!?  Oh yes, very much so.

Tbh as long as it keeps a solid pace in front of Elemental and keeps relatively close with TMNT, think 2.5-3M previews could be possible. Still a lot of other factors at play and too early to call but if it does those, think the five day should be healthily above 50, been feeling around 55-60 these past few days.