The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[YM!]

12 minutes ago, YachtyLogs said:

Milwaukee area. 

Fellow Milwaukee-ite?

 

Which theaters are you tracking?

[Hilts]

21 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Y’know I’m looking at that Haunted Mansion comp, with the knowledge that your market doesn’t have a Disney skew and neither are quite family level backloaded nor blockbuster level frontloaded, and it kinda makes sense in my mind? +/- $2.5M Thurs with something like a 10x IM to $25M? 

 

Yeah HM will be good to check for daily pace I will probably use it the whole way through. But comparing with summer Thurs is dangerous, Haunted Mansion had 80% growth on final day here. Right now I could see it stretch to $30m with a $3m Thurs or 12x IM. Good thing that embargos are dropping early to get traction going. I didn't realise how empty the calendar is post-Thanksgiving for GA, there are really only niche wide releases (Renaissance, Godzilla, Boy and the Heron) until Wonka so there is potential to bump the OW if WB/Timothée can get the word out.

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, YachtyLogs said:

Correct, both Marcus. 

Marcus basically owns a monopoly on Wisconsin theaters lol.

[TwoMisfits]

So, I'm not tracking this, but since MTC 2 vs MTC 1 has come up, especially for family type movies...

 

My 2 Cinemarks have sold 2 (PLF) and 0 tickets for Wonka's opening Thursday so far (and they've got hundreds of seats each available).

 

I only mention this b/c I think it's safe to say Wonka is playing well with the adult unlimited subscriber bases in the opening hours...but obviously, most everyone else is probably waiting...

[YachtyLogs]

9 minutes ago, YM! said:

Fellow Milwaukee-ite?

 

Which theaters are you tracking?

Used to be. Live more upstate now but wanted to grab from larger metro. Going after Ridge and South Shore. 

[Grand Cine]

41 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wonka MTC1

Previews - 8139/447512 148632.81 2096 shows

Friday - 5722/689859 98046.16 3192 shows

 

its not the number that makes you go WOW but for a family flick without any built in fanbase this is a solid start for sure. Good show allocation as well early on.  

I just saw just for curiosity :

 

Hunger Games  Blah Blah MTC1 Previews ( after 2 days of Presales) - 15608/337234 308432.18 1793 shows

 

Ok it's clearly not the best comp but without a fanbase be more like a family movie and with a longer run , make around the half of HG is pretty good ( at least for previews)

 

[keysersoze123]

11 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, I'm not tracking this, but since MTC 2 vs MTC 1 has come up, especially for family type movies...

 

My 2 Cinemarks have sold 2 (PLF) and 0 tickets for Wonka's opening Thursday so far (and they've got hundreds of seats each available).

 

I only mention this b/c I think it's safe to say Wonka is playing well with the adult unlimited subscriber bases in the opening hours...but obviously, most everyone else is probably waiting...

Still its impressive considering the movie is opening 4 weeks away and you can only reserve 3 movies at a time. So for next 4 weeks including this week, this is in the Top 3 of the sub list. That is impressive considering how many movies are opening and families are not the normal audience for A-List. 

[Giorno]

does wonka really not have a fanbase? multiple movies about the character have been made so there is some familiarity + timothee chalamet is a  cinephile darling 

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Still its impressive considering the movie is opening 4 weeks away and you can only reserve 3 movies at a time. So for next 4 weeks including this week, this is in the Top 3 of the sub list. That is impressive considering how many movies are opening and families are not the normal audience for A-List. 

 

I'd kinda expect it to be - it's a blockbuster musical with a blockbuster cast...there is a serious adult fanbase for live action musicals, even if they skew more family (than say West Side Story).

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Giorno said:

does wonka really not have a fanbase? multiple movies about the character have been made so there is some familiarity + timothee chalamet is a  cinephile darling 

There have been 2 versions of Charlie and Chocolate Factory released in 71/05. I dont see that building any fan base. Unless you mean DTV movie. As far as Chalamet being a ticket sales monster that is a huge TBD. I think only few actors can be considered draws ATM. Chalamet makes it a very attractive movie but the movie itself has to be great for this to break out. We will know in under 2 weeks when social media reactions break and few days later the reviews as well. 

[el sid]

The Hunger Games: BOSS, counted today for Friday:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 223 (9 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 225 (13 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 166 (9 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 52 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 148 (6 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 264+ (11 showtimes, again 4 probably untrue Sell Outs reported)
LA (AMC Universal): 552 (15 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.630+.
 

Up ok 23% since yesterday. E.g. super hero movies normally have jumps of 10-15% from Wednesday to Thursday but with more sold tickets.
 

The four untrue Sell Outs (reported in the AMC Metreon) did not vanish...so I can only guess that with all showtimes The Hunger Games would be at ca. 2k tickets today.

Comps (all films counted on Thursday of the release week for Friday): Bullet Train (8M true Friday) had 1.250 sold tickets,
Indiana Jones 5 (16.8M) had 2.000,
Uncharted (11.7M) had 1.180,
The Meg 2 (8.8M) had 651,
The Marvels (14.7M true Friday) had 2.460 
and GotG III (30.7M true Friday) had 4.484 sold tickets.
 

So with estimated ca. 2k tickets it would be on par with Indiana Jones 5 = 16-17M true Friday. But will it have more or less walk-ups? Very probably it will be more frontloaded.
I agree with @jeffthehat: 20M+ Thursday+Friday and I also think that it won't reach 50M OW.

Edited November 16, 2023 by el sid

[keysersoze123]

MTC1 Update

Hunger Games BOSS - 77967/467187 1393300.15 2625 shows

Trolls Band Together - 14805/374122 206256.25 2611 shows

 

I had grabbed HG before Trolls. Stil its moving on as expected. Based on some other data seen, I think this is going to under index at MTC1 relative to Marvels. Trolls nothing much has changed. It will finish exactly as most folks predicted. 

[YM!]

20 minutes ago, YachtyLogs said:

Used to be. Live more upstate now but wanted to grab from larger metro. Going after Ridge and South Shore. 

Ah. Honestly thinking about doing something for North Shore and Menomonee but that’d be during the holiday period for set-up.

 

You might want to consider Bistroplex as well as I believe that’s in the area.

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, Giorno said:

does wonka really not have a fanbase? multiple movies about the character have been made so there is some familiarity + timothee chalamet is a  cinephile darling 

 

Of course it/Timothée has a fanbase.  That's why it's sold any tickets a month out versus practically none at all.

 

This type of film normally doesn't have 1] this long of a pre-sale window and 2] have this much upfront interest.

 

Now we are talking about degrees here.  But I don't think it's much of a coincidence that the D1 locally is the same as, say, the D1 of Nope locally.  Maybe slightly different underlying reasons, but the overall reason (slight brand recognition = more early interest) is more or less the same.

 

But there's only so much Brand Recognition can do, especially at this level of brand recognition/interest.

[HummingLemon496]

The high end for Wonka from Box Office Pro is $35M OW and $210M total. This is going to rely on legs, opening weekend doesn't matter much.

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Wish							OK
Saturday - 4pm - Early Access Screening						ATP	$10.16
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-7	6	6	10	52	813	6.40%	23.81%
T-6	6	6	8	60	813	7.38%	15.38%
T-5	6	6	4	64	813	7.87%	6.67%
T-4	6	6	13	77	813	9.47%	20.31%
T-3	6	6	9	86	813	10.58%	11.69%
MTC1	2	2	+5	41	230	17.83%	13.89%
MTC2	2	2	0	8	224	3.57%	0.00%
MTC3	2	2	+4	37	359	10.31%	12.12%

 

Tuesday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$12.37**
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-10	20	87	2	85	13,535	0.63%	2.41%
T-9	24	102	3	88	14,888	0.59%	3.53%
T-8	24	104	10	98	15,088	0.65%	11.36%
T-7	24	103	12	110	14,951	0.74%	12.24%
T-6	24	107	9	119	15,516	0.77%	8.18%
MTC1	7	32	+3	70	4,535	1.54%	4.48%
MTC2	4	23	0	17	3,687	0.46%	0.00%
MTC3	3	14	-1	7	2,590	0.27%	-12.50%
Other	10	38	+7	25	4,704	0.53%	38.89%
Comps						Raw	ATP adj*
Haunted Mansion				0.636x	=	$1.97m	$1.48m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: MM				0.529x	=	$2.04m
Trolls Band Together				0.881x

 

*75%

**only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 31.93%

3D: 28.57%

 

Wish							OK
Saturday - 4pm - Early Access Screening						ATP	$10.08
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-6	6	6	8	60	813	7.38%	15.38%
T-5	6	6	4	64	813	7.87%	6.67%
T-4	6	6	13	77	813	9.47%	20.31%
T-3	6	6	9	86	813	10.58%	11.69%
T-2	6	6	26	112	813	13.78%	30.23%
MTC1	2	2	+12	53	230	23.04%	29.27%
MTC2	2	2	+10	18	224	8.04%	125.00%
MTC3	2	2	+4	41	359	11.42%	10.81%

 

Tuesday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$11.59**
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-9	24	102	3	88	14,888	0.59%	3.53%
T-8	24	104	10	98	15,088	0.65%	11.36%
T-7	24	103	12	110	14,951	0.74%	12.24%
T-6	24	107	9	119	15,516	0.77%	8.18%
T-5	24	108	47	166	15,688	1.06%	39.50%
MTC1	7	32	+8	78	4,535	1.72%	11.43%
MTC2	4	23	+30	47	3,687	1.27%	176.47%
MTC3	3	15	+2	9	2,762	0.33%	28.57%
Other	10	38	+7	32	4,704	0.68%	28.00%
Comps						Raw	ATP adj*
Haunted Mansion				0.838x	=	$2.60m	$1.95m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: MM				0.675x	=	$2.60m
Trolls Band Together				1.145x

 

*75%

**only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 33.33%

3D: 24.31%

 

Very good day, look at MTC2 growth. Pretty sure there was a big group purchase in there.

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Napoleon							OK
Tuesday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$13.90*
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-10	19	56	14	141	9,976	1.41%	11.02%
T-9	19	56	25	166	9,976	1.66%	17.73%
T-8	19	56	41	207	9,976	2.07%	24.70%
T-7	19	56	23	230	9,976	2.31%	11.11%
T-6	19	59	29	259	10,828	2.39%	12.61%
MTC1	8	24	+2	90	4,529	1.99%	2.27%
MTC2	3	9	+8	24	1,187	2.02%	50.00%
MTC3	3	14	+14	100	3,744	2.67%	16.28%
Other	5	12	+5	45	1,368	3.29%	12.50%
Comps
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.518x	=	$3.63m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.151x	=	$4.43m
Oppenheimer					0.151x	=	$1.58m
The Creator					2.123x	=	$2.87m

 

**only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 16.22%

PLF: 35.52%

 

Napoleon							OK
Tuesday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$13.85*
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-9	19	56	25	166	9,976	1.66%	17.73%
T-8	19	56	41	207	9,976	2.07%	24.70%
T-7	19	56	23	230	9,976	2.31%	11.11%
T-6	19	59	29	259	10,828	2.39%	12.61%
T-5	19	62	25	284	10,990	2.58%	9.65%
MTC1	8	25	+9	99	4,621	2.14%	10.00%
MTC2	3	9	+4	28	1,187	2.36%	16.67%
MTC3	3	16	+7	107	3,814	2.81%	7.00%
Other	5	12	+5	50	1,368	3.65%	11.11%
Comps
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.463x	=	$3.24m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.154x	=	$4.44m
Oppenheimer					0.143x	=	$1.50m
The Creator					2.202x	=	$2.97m

 

**only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 16.55%

PLF: 35.21%

 

Slowed down a little but still trundling along with an okay amount sold per day.

Edited November 16, 2023 by Hilts

[Bob Train]

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 11/16/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
11/22/2023	Napoleon	$17,000,000 – $22,000,000	+11%	$23,000,000 – $32,000,000	$57,000,000 – $77,500,000	+11%	Sony Pictures / Apple
11/22/2023	Saltburn (Expansion; Limited Nov. 17)						Amazon Studios / MGM
11/22/2023	Wish	$40,000,000 – $60,000,000		$57,000,000 – $86,800,000	$165,000,000 – $289,000,000		Walt Disney Pictures
12/1/2023	Godzilla Minus One	$5,000,000 – $9,000,000			$9,000,000 – $18,000,000		Toho International
12/1/2023	Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé	$27,000,000 – $36,000,000			$40,000,000 – $80,000,000		AMC Theatres Distribution
12/1/2023	The Shift	$3,000,000 – $7,000,000	NEW		$6,000,000 – $21,000,000	NEW	Angel Studios
12/1/2023	Silent Night	$4,000,000 – $9,000,000			$10,000,000 – $27,000,000		Lionsgate
12/8/2023	The Boy and the Heron						GKIDS
12/8/2023	Eileen (Wide Expansion; Platform Dec. 1)						NEON
12/8/2023	Poor Things (Limited)						Disney / Searchlight Pictures
12/15/2023	American Fiction (Limited)						MGM / MRC
12/15/2023	Concrete Utopia (Wide Expansion; NY+LA on Dec. 😎						Lotte Entertainment
12/15/2023	Wonka	$25,000,000 – $35,000,000			$125,000,000 – $210,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-wonka/

Edited November 16, 2023 by Bob Train

[HummingLemon496]

We're gonna get official tracking for Aquaman 2 in a week

[M37]

21 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I had grabbed HG before Trolls. Stil its moving on as expected. Based on some other data seen, I think this is going to under index at MTC1 relative to Marvels.

Marvels was a very strong over-index at MTC1: of the titles I've aggregated numbers for, its the only true preview to finish below $50/tix PSM (Batman Thur only and MI7 Tue only also did, but had PLF EA shows that skew the numbers a bit), so HG:BoSS being better should be a given.  Marvels should be more of a lower bound comp for most films moving forward, especially for final numbers, and probably also on pace given the MCU's presale heavy nature

 

Open question (at least to me) is whether it stays on the lower PSM range ($51-$54/tix), or into the higher end ($55-$58/tix).  Based on the regional numbers I'm expecting the higher end, so ~100K tix at like ~$57/$58 PSM (similar to Barbie and FNAF) = ~$5.75M or so as the reported preview number.