The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Scubasteve716]

If Wonka opens to around 30 mil then 200 mil domestic seems reasonable - so why are some people projecting 250 mil world wide? What am I missing? 

[vafrow]

Cineplex finally has full Aquaman showtimes up. I haven't been checking frequently, so unsure when they went up. I haven't logged in since early this morning.

 

Not much in sales so far. 

 

What's going to be a pain is that IMAX 3D sales are listed separately from the other shows (including regular IMAX screens), so anyone tracking it, pay attention to both listings. Because they went up earlier, some of those showings sold fairly well, so I was surprised when I didn't see them.

 

Migration is up as well, but no Color Purple.

 

 

[Relevation]

1 hour ago, Scubasteve716 said:

If Wonka opens to around 30 mil then 200 mil domestic seems reasonable - so why are some people projecting 250 mil world wide? What am I missing? 

Because it won’t get to $200M DOM or open to $30M lol

 

Preview comps are stuck in the $3.4-3.6M range and FRI sales are a bit weak compared to THU so imo the OW range is like $26-29M. Legs will probably be only around like 5-6x instead of the near 7x you’re projecting imo. So all in all likely a total domestic of $150-175M and with the weak Asia performance, something around $335-395M global.

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, Scubasteve716 said:

If Wonka opens to around 30 mil then 200 mil domestic seems reasonable - so why are some people projecting 250 mil world wide? What am I missing? 

People have amnesia it seems with how crowd pleasing family holiday stuff goes. Night at the Museum, Alvin, Jumanji, Puss 2… the list goes on. 
 

Unless there is a huge audience/critic disconnect here like with the dreadful Mary Poppins Returns (the hell were critics on), it sounds to me like GA will eat Wonka up like chocolate. I expect 10-15x multi if OW is below 30. Maybe even better. 

Edited December 8, 2023 by MovieMan89

[joselowe]

19 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

People have amnesia it seems with how crowd pleasing family holiday stuff goes. Night at the Museum, Alvin, Jumanji, Puss 2… the list goes on. 
 

Unless there is a huge audience/critic disconnect here like with the dreadful Mary Poppins Returns (the hell were critics on), it sounds to me like GA will eat Wonka up like chocolate. I expect 10-15x multi if OW is below 30. Maybe even better. 

Well the original Willy Wonka was considered a box office disaster but became a cult classic. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory made $475 million because it had a ton of hype and at that time everything Johnny Depp touched turned to gold even if the film wasn’t that good (Hence Alice in Wonderland, which critics pummeled) but it still made a killing at the box office. The films that you mentioned like Jumanji, Night at The Museum, Puss in Boots all had huge box office stars carrying the film, I’m not sure Timothee is at that level yet… but I could be wrong.

[jeffthehat]

22 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Wonka T-7

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Showtimes - 33

Seats sold - 242

Seats available - 5765

 

Comps

 

0.497x Marvels T-7 = $3.28m

0.624x HG BoSS T-7 = $6.37m

 

Avg = $4.82m

---

 

Think the HG comp is over-shooting so I'd guess ~$3.5m previews for now. 
 

 

Wonka T-6

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Showtimes - 33

Seats sold - 254

Seats available - 5765

New sales - N/A 

 

Comps

 

0.470x Marvels T-6 = $3.1m

0.572x HG BoSS T-6 = $3.29m

---

 

Messed up the HG comp and the seat count yesterday. Lost 2 seats from yesterday's count... oof. 

 

 

 

[JimmyB]

59 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

People have amnesia it seems with how crowd pleasing family holiday stuff goes. Night at the Museum, Alvin, Jumanji, Puss 2… the list goes on. 
 

Unless there is a huge audience/critic disconnect here like with the dreadful Mary Poppins Returns (the hell were critics on), it sounds to me like GA will eat Wonka up like chocolate. I expect 10-15x multi if OW is below 30. Maybe even better. 

Thinking a movie that opens 12/15 is going to do 10-15x its opening weekend seems like its just setting yourself up for disappointment.  Alvin and the Chipmunks open to 44m and finished with 217m with a 12/14 release date. 

[abracadabra1998]

7 hours ago, Shawn Robbins said:

FYI, The Shift's previews were $372,417.

 

@abracadabra1998

 

Our hero! Thank you!! 

 

On 11/29/2023 at 10:20 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St.Paul Area Previews:

 

The Shift (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	39	6	149	3067	4.86

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	4.2
3-Day:	23.14

 

Comps:

1.86x Journey to Bethlehem: $465k (19%, 110%)

0.6x After Death: $240k (7%, 45%)

 

Average: $350k

 

Horrendous final day, though this did have EA today which I'm sure syphoned off a few sales. So let's just say $300k, +/- 100, (longer range than I'd like, but this is with EA included which throws a bit of a wrench into things).

 

Also lets me have bragging rights

Edited December 8, 2023 by abracadabra1998

[MovieMan89]

11 minutes ago, JimmyB said:

Thinking a movie that opens 12/15 is going to do 10-15x its opening weekend seems like its just setting yourself up for disappointment.  Alvin and the Chipmunks open to 44m and finished with 217m with a 12/14 release date. 

Maybe so, but I really do think WOM will be huge. There’s just so little for the casual moviegoing audience this holiday, all it takes for Wonka is great WOM and it’s another holiday leg juggernaut we’ve seen so many times in the past decade. 

[Scubasteve716]

1 hour ago, Relevation said:

Because it won’t get to $200M DOM or open to $30M lol

 

Preview comps are stuck in the $3.4-3.6M range and FRI sales are a bit weak compared to THU so imo the OW range is like $26-29M. Legs will probably be only around like 5-6x instead of the near 7x you’re projecting imo. So all in all likely a total domestic of $150-175M and with the weak Asia performance, something around $335-395M global.

Me: if it opens AROUND $30 mil…

You: You’re wrong it’s going to open to $29 mil!!

Me: 7X multi seems reasonable

You: absolutely not! How outrageous! It’ll get 6X multi!

Me: How are people coming up with $250 mil that’s extremely low

You: wrong again! It’s going to get $395 global! 
What are you talking about?

[lorddemaxus]

4 hours ago, joselowe said:

Well the original Willy Wonka was considered a box office disaster but became a cult classic. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory made $475 million because it had a ton of hype and at that time everything Johnny Depp touched turned to gold even if the film wasn’t that good (Hence Alice in Wonderland, which critics pummeled) but it still made a killing at the box office. The films that you mentioned like Jumanji, Night at The Museum, Puss in Boots all had huge box office stars carrying the film, I’m not sure Timothee is at that level yet… but I could be wrong.

Don't think Banderas has been a star for over 20 years

[emoviefan]

3 hours ago, Scubasteve716 said:

Me: if it opens AROUND $30 mil…

You: You’re wrong it’s going to open to $29 mil!!

Me: 7X multi seems reasonable

You: absolutely not! How outrageous! It’ll get 6X multi!

Me: How are people coming up with $250 mil that’s extremely low

You: wrong again! It’s going to get $395 global! 
What are you talking about?

Next weekend the Weekend thread is going to be insufferable with the usual suspects who should and probably do know better when it comes to this.

[Relevation]

3 hours ago, Scubasteve716 said:

Me: if it opens AROUND $30 mil…

You: You’re wrong it’s going to open to $29 mil!!

Me: 7X multi seems reasonable

You: absolutely not! How outrageous! It’ll get 6X multi!

Me: How are people coming up with $250 mil that’s extremely low

You: wrong again! It’s going to get $395 global! 
What are you talking about?

Well I could point out that you took all my high end totals but… point taken. 

 

$250M WW is pretty low imo and probably won’t happen unless audience WoM is just not good, I just disagree with your $30M OW / $200M DOM split.

 

Suppose I wasn’t as far off from your numbers as I made it seem.

Edited December 9, 2023 by Relevation

[Eric is Anxious]

3 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Don't think Banderas has been a star for over 20 years

He's a star to me

[keysersoze123]

On 12/7/2023 at 9:08 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Wonka MTC1

Previews - 20401/473556 371171.81 2251 shows

Friday - 18209/725869 314272.39 3386 shows

 

Early shows could have helped this movie. For now thinking previews between 3-4m. 

Wonka MTC1

Previews - 21650/474511 393312.40 2259 shows

Friday - 19775/725869 340248.89 3386 shows

 

Still ambling along. Not much of an acceleration. 

[filmlover]

Anyone But You and The Boys in the Boat are now on sale, former begins at 2:00 that Thursday while the latter starts 1:00 on Christmas Eve (but will also, as mentioned earlier, be having early access shows on the 17th).

Edited December 9, 2023 by filmlover

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Expand  

 

Wonka, T-7, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 46

New Sales since last update: 7

Growth: 15.2%

Showtimes: 19

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 5/4

Early Evening: 37/8

Late Evening: 11/7

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 25/6

VIP: 16/4

IMAX: 12/6

4DX: 0/3

 

Comps

0.252x of HG:BoSS for $1.5M

 

Still nothing noteworthy 

 

Expand  

 

Wonka, T-6, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 46

New Sales since last update: 0

Growth: 0%

Showtimes: 19

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 5/4

Early Evening: 37/8

Late Evening: 11/7

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 25/6

VIP: 16/4

IMAX: 12/6

4DX: 0/3

 

Comps

0.232x of HG:BoSS for $1.3M

 

Fairly late in the game for a zero sales day. 

[vafrow]

Expand  

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, T-13 (Day 1ish), western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 22

New Sales since last update: 22

Growth: na

Showtimes: 19

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 3/4

Early Evening: 19/8

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Dolby 3D: 0/6

Dolby:  0/1

IMAX: 0/3

IMAX 3D: 15/3

4dx: 0/3

VIP 3D: 0/2

VIP: 3/1

 

Comps

0.063x of The Marvels for $0.4M

 

First off, a day one comp isn't really a fair comparison to The Marvels, but it's all I had. Plus, most of Aquamans sales are from IMAX 3D sales, which have been open for a few days.

 

Because of that staggered opening for sales, it's probably hurt thd initial demand, but, it's clear there hasn't been a big contingent waiting for more showtimes.

 

Back to being a day 1 comp, when I thought this would only open up sales at T-8 or so, I was debating at using FNAF, which had the late sales cycle here, but that's not a comparison that's going to help it. 

 

Advance sales for this region has been in a funk here, with everything doing much worse than the big release before since FNAF.

[titanic2187]

It is disappointing to see good review didn’t seem to boost wonka in a meaningful way. I think the movie will be a WOM sensation but you can’t really go very high up with just 25-30m OW. I guess the movie will just perform like a normal holiday hit at around 150-175m. 

[Kon]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

It is disappointing to see good review didn’t seem to boost wonka in a meaningful way. I think the movie will be a WOM sensation but you can’t really go very high up with just 25-30m OW. I guess the movie will just perform like a normal holiday hit at around 150-175m. 

 

Well, good reviews have never been able to affect OW in a significant way.

 

I hope WOM could help legs, but that will only happen after OW.

Edited December 9, 2023 by Kon