The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[ThatWaluigiDude]

1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

 

No Sonic 3, Kung Fu Panda 4 and Godzilla X Kong, Beetlejuice 2 in 2nd place. Yeah, I'm calling bs

[Krissykins]

18 minutes ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

No Sonic 3, Kung Fu Panda 4 and Godzilla X Kong, Beetlejuice 2 in 2nd place. Yeah, I'm calling bs

There’s a lord of the rings film coming? I thought that was a tv show now. 

[harrisonisdead]

29 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

There’s a lord of the rings film coming? I thought that was a tv show now. 

This one's an animated US/Japan co-production

[Krissykins]

3 minutes ago, harrisonisdead said:

This one's an animated US/Japan co-production

Ah ok thanks, had no idea. Wouldn’t expect to see it high up on the year end charts this time next year lol

[Manny G]

I do agree that the fandango list is mostly useless although I think that Beetlejuice 2 will be very big .

 

it’s a rare case of an extremely well known and beloved IP yet criminally underutilized. They had what  an animated show and a musical. That’s it. Yet the movie is revered as classic and introduced “being weird is cool” to a whole generation. With the right marketing campaign (which is imperative) this movie has biggest movie of the year potential.

 

i grew up in Congo didn’t watch the movie until i was way into adulthood. But even I since my childhood know “Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice…” you can’t buy that type of pop culture recognition. 

[Cmasterclay]

Beetlejuice also had a massive debut on Quorum. If it's not total garbage I've moved it over 300m in my predictions. The buzz is palpable IRL too.

[Scubasteve716]

Question for those that track I’m looking at Wonka locally and ticket sales for Friday are much better than Thursday. Do you all track just Thursday previews or presales total for the opening weekend or does it depend person to person? 

[vafrow]

50 minutes ago, Scubasteve716 said:

Question for those that track I’m looking at Wonka locally and ticket sales for Friday are much better than Thursday. Do you all track just Thursday previews or presales total for the opening weekend or does it depend person to person? 

 

The default for most is thursday, since having a lot of confidence in a Thursday preview can usually be enough to extrapolate a weekend multiplier. But, there is often other days tracked, and that usually helps identify what potential there is out of a multiplier.

 

Most tracking for Wonka on Friday is showing a strong jump from Thursday, helping to reinforce the expectation that this is playing like a family movie, but nothing too crazy that it will be hitting outlier range.

[jeffthehat]

21 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

 

Wonka T-1

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Showtimes - 33

Seats sold - 349

Seats available - 5765

New sales - 42 (+13.7%)

 

Comps

 

0.44x Marvels T-1 = $2.90m

0.46x HG BoSS T-1 = $2.67m

 

Avg = $2.8m

 

Friday T-2

 

Showtimes - 137

Seats sold - 973

 

Comps

 

0.78x Marvels T-2 = $11.6m

0.97x HG BoSS T-2 = $12.9m

 

Avg = $12.3m

---

 

Previews sales have been bad here but Friday is bangin. Looks like $14m+ Thu/Fri to me. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wonka T-0 

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Showtimes - 33

Seats sold - 415

Seats available - 5765

New sales - 66 (+18.9%)

 

Comps

 

0.43x Marvels T-0 = $2.9m

0.44x HG BoSS T-0 = $2.5m

1.21x Eras Thu T-0 = $3.4m / $1.9m ATP adjusted (-45%)

0.67x FNaF T-0 = $7.0m 

 

Avg = $3.6m

---

 

Throwing every comp I have at this brings my #'s in line with the consensus. But growth has looked meh to me and an outlier is doing the lifting so I'll go with 3.2m +/- 0.3m for previews. 

 

Friday is at 1103 seats sold and +13.3% growth from yesterday. The comps I have are showing $11m+. Let's see. 

 

 

[jeffthehat]

1 hour ago, Scubasteve716 said:

Question for those that track I’m looking at Wonka locally and ticket sales for Friday are much better than Thursday. Do you all track just Thursday previews or presales total for the opening weekend or does it depend person to person? 

 

Depends person to person. Friday is harder to track cause there are so many more shows, and like Vafrow said you can get a good idea of the weekend from the preview number. Friday sales look really good in the chain I track too. 

[TheFlatLannister]

20 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WONKA

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
252	1702	49367	3.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

187

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.161x) of Barbie $3.39M Previews

(0.319x) of TLM $3.29M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.34M

 

decreased against both comps. Average growth

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WONKA

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
252	2224	49367	4.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 3:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

522

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(0.166x) of Barbie $3.50M Previews

(0.332x) of TLM $3.42M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.46M

 

After a mid T-1, this was a solid final day. Yeah i'll call it at $3.5M +/- $0.2M

Edited December 14, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[MovieMan89]

Nice to finally see a bit of data backing up when I’ve been saying for months about Beetlejuice 2 being one of next year’s biggest. If they actually stick the landing, I’m sure it will be next year’s biggest. The TGM parallels are there between Gen X nostalgia x Gen Z appeal (thanks Wednesday). 

Edited December 14, 2023 by MovieMan89

[el sid]

Wonka, counted today for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 109 (now 8 showtimes instead of 3; when I counted it around noon in Germany it had only 79 sold tickets (lower than last week) which means the error (3 fake Sell Outs) which did not vanish till today is to blame for the low jump)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 206 (9 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 46 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 31 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 26 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 307 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 485 (8 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.209+.

Up 41% since Monday.
Comps (no TLM comp for Thursday, sorry): Dungeons & Dragons (4.1M) had 1.265 sold tickets = 3.9M,
Dolittle (925k) had 284 sold tickets = 3.9M,
Uncharted (3.7M) had 1.294 = 3.45M,
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile (575k) had 134 = 5.2M
and Jurassic World Dominion (18M) had 4.342 sold tickets = 5.05M.

Average = 4.3M.
Well that's more realistic than on Monday. It lost in comparison to the smaller films (of course) but looks better against a bigger film, namly JWD (4.8M on Monday).
Now the question is, will it have more walk-ups and be less frontloaded than e.g. D&D? I would say yes. And so I say 4M+ from previews.

[ChipDerby]

O/U $17 mil total OD for Wonka

Edited December 14, 2023 by ChipDerby

[keysersoze123]

16 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wonka MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 38759/572280 679082.21 2951 shows

Friday - 45223/965948 753518.93 5019 shows

Saturday - 40747/1024086 618282.81 5346 shows 

 

No change to my predictions. 

Previews are at 49341/570767 840567.23 at 2PM PST. I think 3.5m previews is going to be it for this movie. 

[HummingLemon496]

What will Wonka's internal multiplier be?

[MovieMan89]

I havent followed closely in recent years, but the Fandango thing used to be a good predictor in regards to the top 3 or so being big. Although highly doubt that will happen for Ghostbusters lol 

[M37]

1 hour ago, ChipDerby said:

O/U $17 mil total OD for Wonka

Way under IMO. I’m struggling to see even the 10x IM many seem to be expecting, and that kind of OD would go way higher. Just don’t see this playing as a true, walk-up friendly, family film (at least for OW) - there’s too many “fan”/YA sales baked in that’s going to limit the growth rate. Not on like HG:BoSS level, but in range of TLM or Ghostbusters Afterlife 

 

$12-$13M is my current expectation, $30M+ OW

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Christmas 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
172	3471	32294	10.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

56

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-12

 

Comps with Thursday previews 

(1.073x) of Barbie $22.64M 

(1.310x) of TLM $13.50M 

Comps AVG: $18.07M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Christmas 

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
172	3533	32294	10.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

62

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-11

 

Comps with Thursday previews 

(1.032x) of Barbie $21.76M 

(1.310x) of TLM $13.50M 

Comps AVG: $17.63M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MIGRATION 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
176	246	33106	0.74%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

-3

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.663x) of Trolls 3 $862k Previews

(0.423x) of Elemental $1.01M Previews

Comps AVG: $936k

 

3 returns no sales 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MIGRATION 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
176	261	33106	0.79%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

15

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.694x) of Trolls 3 $902k Previews

(0.415x) of Elemental $996k Previews

Comps AVG: $949k