The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Friday had a good day and I am expecting great walkups tomorrow. I think 10m true friday is in play. 

Can see Wonka hit 40M Weekend from 10M True FRI.

[Joyous Legion]

46 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Can see Wonka hit 40M Weekend from 10M True FRI.

3.5

10

… 15, 12?   
 

I would expect more like 35 unless Fri goes higher 

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Poor Things T-8: 21.65%

The Beekeeper T-29: 30.67%

Argylle T-50: 16.44%

Imaginary T-85: 16.82%

 

Wonka T-1: 67.31% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 88% chance of 50M, 76% chance of 60M, 59% chance of 70M, 41% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 100M

 

Anyone But You T-8: 29.12% Awareness

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom T-8: 63.01% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 88% chance of 50M, 76% chance of 60M, 59% chance of 70M, 41% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 80% chance of 50M, 60% chance of 100M

 

The Iron Claw T-8: 28.91% Awareness

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

 

Migration T-8: 40.38% Awareness

Final Awareness: 86% chance of 10M, 54% chance of 20M, 31% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Awareness: 80% chance of 10M, 20% chance of 20M

 

It Ends with Us T-57: 18.95% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

[emoviefan]

4 minutes ago, Eric Wonka said:

Quorum Updates

Poor Things T-8: 21.65%

The Beekeeper T-29: 30.67%

Argylle T-50: 16.44%

Imaginary T-85: 16.82%

 

Wonka T-1: 67.31% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 88% chance of 50M, 76% chance of 60M, 59% chance of 70M, 41% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 100M

 

Anyone But You T-8: 29.12% Awareness

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom T-8: 63.01% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 88% chance of 50M, 76% chance of 60M, 59% chance of 70M, 41% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 80% chance of 50M, 60% chance of 100M

 

The Iron Claw T-8: 28.91% Awareness

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

 

Migration T-8: 40.38% Awareness

Final Awareness: 86% chance of 10M, 54% chance of 20M, 31% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Awareness: 80% chance of 10M, 20% chance of 20M

 

It Ends with Us T-57: 18.95% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Argyle only 16% awareness. But hasn't everybody seen the trailer 10 times or more in a theater.Time for U/Apple to drop the second trailer to annoy everybody.

[Shawn Robbins]

15 hours ago, misterpepp said:

@Shawn Robbins I noticed you had the location count for Poor Things set at 450 this weekend in the BOP forecast, but I believe the location count for it has been confirmed at 82. I'm assuming that changes the projection?

Yep, you can just ignore that Poor Things forecast. My source for that location count was obviously incorrect this week.

[Shawn Robbins]

Wonka 3.5 official

[TheFlatLannister]

4 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

Wonka 3.5 official

 

BOT tracking team once again undefeated 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Legion Again said:

3.5

10

… 15, 12?   
 

I would expect more like 35 unless Fri goes higher 

Jumanji 2 jumped 57%, that may be...

3.5
10
16
11

that should do it...

[RamblinRed]

8 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:

Re Fandango, here's last year's list for reference

 

No Barbenheimer (going by this list, it would have looked like they would've opened to #2 and #3 to Dead Reckoning's 2nd weekend), Mario barely making it in at #10, Quantumania at #3! (though TBF it had a decent OW and then it was all downhill from there), GotG3 over AtSV, Indy in Top 5, The Little Mermaid not figuring in the Top 10 even tho domestically Ariel's at #6 etc.

 

The list also seems to skew older with the likes of John Wick and Indiana Jones TROUNCING Mario even tho we know what actually happened at the BO. So I'm not putting too much into Beetlejuice and Ghostbusters's rankings in this year's list.

The 2 takeaways I have for these Fandango most anticipated is that there is some bias for movies earlier in the year (as GA has seen more advertising for them) and that in the end regardless of how 'anticipated' they are - they still have to deliver. If they aren't good movies (by how the GA judges them) then they will not perform well.

 

[jeffthehat]

22 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

 

Wonka T-0 

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Showtimes - 33

Seats sold - 415

Seats available - 5765

New sales - 66 (+18.9%)

 

Comps

 

0.43x Marvels T-0 = $2.9m

0.44x HG BoSS T-0 = $2.5m

1.21x Eras Thu T-0 = $3.4m / $1.9m ATP adjusted (-45%)

0.67x FNaF T-0 = $7.0m 

 

Avg = $3.6m

---

 

Throwing every comp I have at this brings my #'s in line with the consensus. But growth has looked meh to me and an outlier is doing the lifting so I'll go with 3.2m +/- 0.3m for previews. 

 

Friday is at 1103 seats sold and +13.3% growth from yesterday. The comps I have are showing $11m+. Let's see. 

 

 

 

Friday T-0

 

Showtimes - 137

Seats sold - 1526

New sales - 423 (+38.3%)

 

Comps

 

0.81x Marvels T-0 = $12.2m

0.60x HG BoSS T-0 = $8.0m

0.46x FNaF T-0 = $13.4m 

0.26x Eras T-0 = $8.9m / $4.9m ATP adjusted 

 

Avg = $9.6m

---

 

Average is $11.2m without Eras. Def looks like it can do $10m+ true Friday, we'll see. 

 

 

 

Edited December 15, 2023 by jeffthehat

[keysersoze123]

On 12/10/2023 at 2:24 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Migration MTC1

Previews - 2839/298369 39787.17 2050 shows

Friday - 3138/431634 41982.82 2897 shows

12/25 - 3018/414677 37540.54 2825 shows

 

T6 days later at least it has sold more than 1 ticket per show :-) Plus added Christmas day sales. its going to depend on holiday run to make reasonable total domestic as OW wont be that good. 

Migration MTC1

Previews - 3818/300187 53902.96 2066 shows

Friday - 4546/433801 60813.22 2928 shows

12/25 - 4720/419426 59058.22 2885 shows

 

Definitely Christmas day will be the biggest. That said OW wont be great. Let us see if it can hit double digits. 

[whatsupdoc]

THE QUORUM

6-Week Out Film Tracking Report

 

Opening Weekend Projections:

 

WONKA: $31M - $36M (Up)

ANYONE BUT YOU: $3M - $5M (Up)

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM: $$33M - $38M (Down)

THE IRON CLAW: $4M - $6M (Flat)

MIGRATION: $14M - $17M (Up)

THE BOYS IN THE BOAT: $2M - $4M (Flat - X-Mas Day Only)

THE COLOR PURPLE: $11M - $12M (Up - X-Mas Day Only)

FERRARI: $3M - $5M (Up - X-MAs Day Only)

NIGHT SWIM: $12M - $15M (Up)

THE BEEKEEPER: $13M - $16M (Flat)

THE BOOK OF CLARENCE: $5M - $7M (Flat)

MEAN GIRLS: $18M- $21M (Flat)

I.S.S.: $2M- $4M (Flat)

 

https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/6WOFTR-12.15.23.pdf

 

 

[M37]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 

BOT tracking team once again undefeated 

[DAJK]

Pro predicting 20-40 opening for Mean Girls. I feel like the low end is much more likely, but damn wouldn’t it be great if it hit a 40M opening.

[Grand Cine]

I see 25-30M for Mean Girls , i think with a good marketing from Paramount , it could be bigger because it's the only " big" movie of January

[Krissykins]

Few people seen the original Mean Girls coming either. I used to watch that trailer on a loop, it was hilarious. 
 

BOM even had an article at the start of the year and it included something like “low expectations for the generically titled ‘Mean Girls’”. 

[keysersoze123]

On 12/13/2023 at 3:09 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Color Purple MTC1

12/25 - 107233/336043 1355969.35 2379 shows

12/26 - 27228/317293 343781.92 2221 shows

 

Still the skew is crazy.  

Color Purple MTC1

12/25 - 121960/356419 1542881.18 2516 shows

12/26 - 31597/331992 401220.33 2320 shows

 

Show count is growing already for Christmas day. Its going to be a big day considering holdovers will be very big as well and Ferrari will also have a good OD. 

[whatsupdoc]

3 hours ago, emoviefan said:

Argyle only 16% awareness. But hasn't everybody seen the trailer 10 times or more in a theater.Time for U/Apple to drop the second trailer to annoy everybody.

On the plus side, ARGYLLE registered 1% unaided awareness (page 3 of attachment) this week, which is not nothing for a film 7 weeks out. It is beginning to resonate with a small group of people. 

 

https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/6WOFTR-12.15.23.pdf

 

 

[Grand Cine]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Color Purple MTC1

12/25 - 121960/356419 1542881.18 2516 shows

12/26 - 31597/331992 401220.33 2320 shows

 

Show count is growing already for Christmas day. Its going to be a big day considering holdovers will be very big as well and Ferrari will also have a good OD. 

 

I take comparaison on recent movies at T-0

 

The Marvels : Friday - 103929/1276061 1835583.75 6971 shows +22725
Hunger Games : Friday - 99681/742948 1719398.91 4245 shows +20394
Wonka : Friday - 60643/965255 990758.59 5035 shows

 

Even with the low ATP, At the beginning of next week , he will surpass the T-0 of all the three movies ( he is already ahead of Wonka) , so yeah 20M could happen

[Cmasterclay]

Apparently that Argylle awareness number is not reflective of my theaters. I've gotten the trailer at every movie without fail since September. Even Anatomy of a Fall!