The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

Migration MTC1 

Previews Final - 22968/341001 313467.26 2402 shows

Friday - 20943/568109 270979.99  3948 shows

 

It did not add to much after my last 4PM check. Its gross is 15% higher than Trolls and so I would say 1.25m previews. I think it should do another 3-4m tomorrow and I am thinking low double digits 10-12m range until Sunday and then its biggest day on Christmas. So probably mid to high teens over 4 days and then based on WOM it could have a leggy run.

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Migration MTC1 

Previews Final - 22968/341001 313467.26 2402 shows

Friday - 20943/568109 270979.99  3948 shows

 

It did not add to much after my last 4PM check. Its gross is 15% higher than Trolls and so I would say 1.25m previews. I think it should do another 3-4m tomorrow and I am thinking low double digits 10-12m range until Sunday and then its biggest day on Christmas. So probably mid to high teens over 4 days and then based on WOM it could have a leggy run.

 

 

How did Trolls do $2.5M previews from numbers you and me have? or were $2.4M EA and $1.1M were previews.

[rehpyc]

14 minutes ago, M37 said:

Do you happen to have Wonka as a comparison to? 
 

Big delta between 1 & 3 for ratio of TCP (though good chunk of that discrepancy is market based)

3,608/2,760/2,748

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

How did Trolls do $2.5M previews from numbers you and me have? or were $2.4M EA and $1.1M were previews.

1.3m were from early shows and 1.1m previews. Early shows sold more tickets than previews :-)

 

Early shows - 25080/48653 264241.44 284 shows

 

[filmlover]

If Aquaman hits high-$20M for the three-day then it should at least avoid the embarrassment of missing $100M total like The Marvels unless it totally collapses during the week. A poor run still, for sure, but at least not the worst case scenario like it's been appearing for a while if that's what happens.

Edited December 22, 2023 by filmlover

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

1.3m were from early shows and 1.1m previews. Early shows sold more tickets than previews 🙂

 

Early shows - 25080/48653 264241.44 284 shows

 

oh. The-numbers have double counted previews. $1.17M.

[dallas]

Took a look at T-1 Friday numbers, and this is what I have

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - 339 tickets sold 

Migration - 298 tickets sold

Wonka - 228 tickets sold

 

Unsurprisingly, Aquaman is in the lead. But what does surprise me is Migration. I really didn't expect it to be this close between it and Aquaman. Hell, I expected it to be behind Wonka. If WOM is good, I can see this opening higher than many expect, especially with the power of holiday walkups. 

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Quick update

MTC(T-1) Aquaman 2 -  45581/553734 866496.39 2968 shows +7686

 

Aquaman 2 MTC1

Previews Final - 77681/553423 1411699.17 2970 shows +32100

Friday - 54794/850970 951668.24 4674 shows

 

Have to say the thursday growth from presales yesterday(> 4x) is among the best I have seen except for a family movie like Minions 2 or Mario. Its easily the strongest of all DCEU flicks this year in terms of % growth. 

 

Comps

Shazam - 4.3m

Flash ~ 4.2m // Assuming 9.5m for pure thursday previews for Flash

I dont have blue beetle final as my internet was down that day. 

 

So calling for ~4.25m previews. 

 

Based on friday presales pace and tomorrow being almost a holiday, I am expecting 12m+ friday including previews. Still meh(mid to high 30s until Christmas).. 

[abracadabra1998]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

1.3m were from early shows and 1.1m previews. Early shows sold more tickets than previews 🙂

 

Early shows - 25080/48653 264241.44 284 shows

 

 

Huh, that's not what the trades reported, I recall them claiming 1.3 previews and 1.17 EA

[abracadabra1998]

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Christmas Day:

 

The Boys in the Boat (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Christmas Day: 20 theaters	102	1793	1793	7692	23.31
Sunday: 17 theaters	44	287	287	3447	8.33
TOTALS:	146	2080	2080	11139	18.67

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	114	0
MTC1:		708	135	34.04
Marcus:		349	11	16.78
Alamo:		107	0	5.14
Other chains:		916	8	44.04

 

Sunday Comps:

2.35x The Iron Claw: ?? (~1 million probably)

3.59x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $1.97 Million

1.74x Haunting in Venice: $1.91 Million

 

Christmas Day Comp:

0.55x The Color Purple

 

Ummm was not expecting this, way stronger than I was thinking. With the ATP adjustment for Sunday probably looking at mid-1 million and then for Christmas Day high single digits? Pretty darn strong.

 

Ferrari (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Christmas Day: 17 theaters	75	585	585	5989	9.77
Sunday: 13 theaters	24	76	76	1906	3.99
TOTALS:	99	661	661	7895	8.37

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	114	0
MTC1:		227	135	34.34
Marcus:		93	11	14.07
Alamo:		107	0	16.19
Other chains:		234	8	35.4

 

Sunday Comps:

0.62xx The Iron Claw: ?? (~250-300k probably)

0.29x Asteroid City: $320k

 

Christmas Day Comp:

0.18x The Color Purple

 

Not very good  

[keysersoze123]

10 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Huh, that's not what the trades reported, I recall them claiming 1.3 previews and 1.17 EA

you are right. it was other way around. That seems weird for the AMC data I have. Which means Migration has to be 1.5m. That seems too high again based on AMC data. I am thinking closer to 1.2m than 1.5m. 

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

you are right. it was other way around. That seems weird for the AMC data I have. Which means Migration has to be 1.5m. That seems too high again based on AMC data. I am thinking closer to 1.2m than 1.5m. 

yeah I remember thinking alpha ratio being very low for trolls.

[DAJK]

Yea... Migration was higher than Trolls 3 for true Thursday previews pretty much everywhere I tracked tonight. Wouldn't be surprised with 1.2-1.3 tomorrow morning.

[titanic2187]

14 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

ANYONE BUT YOU

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
150	362	27595	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

83

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(1.014x) of Greek Wedding 3 $558k Previews

(1.153x) of Priscilla $519k Previews

Comps AVG: $539k

 

*Not counting EA sales* 

 

Going with $550k previews + whatever it makes on EA (maybe $100k)

 

Anyone butt u review really fall off the cliff from the initial 65% to 50% now. This mark another Sony's failure in term of critical reception. They hardly make any "Fresh" movie.  

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

The Color Purple, T-5 (D2), Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 3 (of 5)

Total Sales: 9

New Sales since last update: na

Growth: na

Showtimes: 19

Radius 19km

 

 I thought I'd do a simplified track on this. I have nothing to use as a comp given all the unique variables, but I wanted to see if the enthusiasm in US markets was translating at all here. Answer is clearly no at this stage. It could change as date gets closer and word of mouth spreads.

 

Of the 9 tickets sold, only one is for an evening show. It's worth noting that there's no matinee pricing, so the demand for afternoon (as little as it is), is not price driven.

 

Xmas day sales are behind Wonka and even Poor Things. Although, all of those are well behind Dunki which is the biggest seller right now by a very wide margin.

 

 

The Color Purple, T-4, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 3 (of 5)

Total Sales: 24

New Sales since last update: 15

Growth: 167%

Showtimes: 19

Radius 19km

 

Big jump, and a sign that there is interest, but people either aren't yet in full Xmas day planning, or didnt know it was on sale yet.

 

I also just checked Tuesday sales (Boxing Day up here, and also discount day), and sales are almost double that of Xmas Day.

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Poor Things T-2: 25.82% Awareness

The Boys in the Boat T-4: 25.26%

The Color Purple T-4: 49.33%

Ferrari T-4: 30.56%

Inside Out 2 T-176: 44.77%

Despicable Me 4 T-195: 40.23%

 

Anyone But You T-1: 33.06% Awareness

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 24% chance of 10M, 5% chance of 20M

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom T-1: 61.09% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 94% chance of 40M, 83% chance of 50M, 72% chance of 60M, 55% chance of 70M, 39% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 80% chance of 50M, 60% chance of 100M

 

The Iron Claw T-1: 29.04% Awareness

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

 

Migration T-1: 44.08% Awareness

Final Awareness: 86% chance of 10M, 54% chance of 20M, 31% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Awareness: 80% chance of 10M, 20% chance of 20M

[M37]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Migration MTC1 

Previews Final - 22968/341001 313467.26 2402 shows

Friday - 20943/568109 270979.99  3948 shows

 

It did not add to much after my last 4PM check. Its gross is 15% higher than Trolls and so I would say 1.25m previews. I think it should do another 3-4m tomorrow and I am thinking low double digits 10-12m range until Sunday and then its biggest day on Christmas. So probably mid to high teens over 4 days and then based on WOM it could have a leggy run.

Friday PS are 60% of Trolls ($8.1M TFri) and ~50% of Elemental ($9.3m TFri) so Migration should clear $4M TFri, might even get to $5M+ with holiday effect. Should get to at least $13M (10x), up to $15M+ (12x) given the daily patterns from 2017

[Borobudur]

32 minutes ago, M37 said:

Friday PS are 60% of Trolls ($8.1M TFri) and ~50% of Elemental ($9.3m TFri) so Migration should clear $4M TFri, might even get to $5M+ with holiday effect. Should get to at least $13M (10x), up to $15M+ (12x) given the daily patterns from 2017

This is some recovery after the lackluster presale window but unfortunately I doubt this is pushing the movie to 100m. 72% fresh isn't enough to sustain the WOM buzz. I can't believe Trolls is the only 100m animation post-Summer.  

[M37]

15 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

This is some recovery after the lackluster presale window but unfortunately I doubt this is pushing the movie to 100m. 72% fresh isn't enough to sustain the WOM buzz. I can't believe Trolls is the only 100m animation post-Summer.  

Some recovery on a walk-up friendly semi-holiday Thursday sure, but Friday sales always looked solid enough to me for an OW in the teens; just dropping the IM lower now that we have final (bigger) Th & Fri PS

 

Agree $100M would be a stretch, unless it’s “good enough” to leg out into Jan/Feb as the default option for families with younger kids 

Edited December 22, 2023 by M37

[AniNate]

Well, who knows. Greatest Showman opened worse and has worse reviews, and it does fulfill the "Illumination" expectation if not the "Benjamin Renner" one.

 

 

Edited December 22, 2023 by AniNate