The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Night Swim

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
445	1091	92509	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

 

Miami-Orlando-Tampa-Jacksonville 

 

Ok, so as promised this is the new tracking region I will be using. I don't have a specific number, but thinking its around ~80% of all Florida screens available on Fandango. Going to have no comps for a while.  

 

This includes MTC1, MTC2, MTC3, plus several other MiniTCs

Awesome job @TheFlatLannister. More data is always better. This will be useful as you start comping with similar movies. 

[abracadabra1998]

8 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Night Swim

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
445	1091	92509	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

 

Miami-Orlando-Tampa-Jacksonville 

 

Ok, so as promised this is the new tracking region I will be using. I don't have a specific number, but thinking its around ~80% of all Florida screens available on Fandango. Going to have no comps for a while.  

 

This includes MTC1, MTC2, MTC3, plus several other MiniTCs

Hell yeah, this is dope as hell! Hats off to you!

 

A suggestion, definitely depending on time/how easy it would be, for the next few months: if you are able to easily separate the data between all the new stuff and just your old area you could still compare it with your old numbers while also being able to gather up all that new data? Or maybe just do it with the bigger releases that more people (and you!) care about?

 

Again, it definitely depends on how easy and (not) time-consuming it would be, but just an idea!

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

I.S.S. T-18: 22.52%

Madame Web T-44: 27.68%

Love Lies Bleeding T-67: 13.17%

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire T-88: 40.78%

Back to Black T-130: 13.83%

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes T-144: 43.88%

 

Night Swim T-4: 39.47% Awareness

Final Awareness: 36% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 45% chance of 10M, 9% chance of 20M

 

The Beekeeper T-11: 38.37% Awareness

Final Awareness: 36% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M

Medium Awareness: 47% chance of 10M

 

The Book of Clarence T-11: 25.09% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

 

Mean Girls T-11: 52.47% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 92% chance of 20M, 72% chance of 30M, 36% chance of 40M

Low Awareness: 100% chance of 10M

[CJohn]

When is the embargo of Night Swim lifted? It is in dire need of some strong reviews.

[Boxofficerules]

Night Swim feels like a weird gimmick of a haunted swimming pool but the trailer plays it out like an average possession movie.

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Hell yeah, this is dope as hell! Hats off to you!

 

A suggestion, definitely depending on time/how easy it would be, for the next few months: if you are able to easily separate the data between all the new stuff and just your old area you could still compare it with your old numbers while also being able to gather up all that new data? Or maybe just do it with the bigger releases that more people (and you!) care about?

 

Again, it definitely depends on how easy and (not) time-consuming it would be, but just an idea!

I’ve thought about this. Might try for big blockbusters like Deadpool and Joker since I have good comps for those, but it does take time to run the scraper so I would probably only provide one update just for orlando on T-0  

[Human]

4 hours ago, Eric Owns Mickey Mouse said:

Quorum Updates

...

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire T-88: 40.78%

I will take that as a good sign.

[abracadabra1998]

22 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Night Swim (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	35	15	67	3859	1.74

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		36	9	53.73
MTC1:		48	11	71.64
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		8	0	11.94
Other chains:		11	4	16.42

 

Comps:

0.65x Thanksgiving: $650k

0.29x The Exorcist Believer: $815k

0.35x Insidious Red Door: $1.76 Million

 

Average: $1.07 Million

 

Rose against all comps, but we're talking small numbers at the moment which means big swings can happen. Still, maybe a good sign things are picking up this final week!

 

Also, thank you @keysersoze123 I really appreciate it, and that really means a lot  hope you had an awesome start to your 2024!

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Night Swim (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	45	15	82	6420	1.28

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		41	5	50
MTC1:		59	11	71.95
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		10	2	12.2
Other chains:		13	2	15.85

 

Comps:

0.57x Thanksgiving: $575k

0.3x The Exorcist Believer: $855k

0.28x Insidious Red Door: $1.38 Million

0.8x Last Voyage of Demeter: $600k

0.65x Talk To Me*: $715k

 

*EA was never reported for this. The total reported was $1.245M, and I am assuming Thursday previews are ~1.1M since EA was pretty limited 

 

Average: $825K

 

Added a couple more original horror comps. Not feeling a ton of buzz for this but maybe a late push in sales could put this over 1 million for Thursday. Good news is I will be able to do a T-1 hour update for this one so I'll be able to give a little clearer picture of walk-ups!

[vale9001]

The tracking for means girls is of course very good but could be another Wish case where very bad reviews could really affect late Sales and walk ups. Let'see 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

Not sure how much Memory is expanding this weekend, but Atom is offering free tickets.

[keysersoze123]

Mean Girls MTC1

Wednesday - 8257/20427 182864.93 107 shows

Thursday - 6704/196869 108761.70 1103 shows

Friday - 8871/321548 140154.77 1743 shows

 

Its ok but its not looking like huge breakout or anything. 

[dallas]

The Beekeeper

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-9 

6 tickets sold

 

(0.043x) of Aquaman 2 - $193,500

 

Absolutely zero interest in this movie. I hope the pace improves because if not, this movie is genuinely DOA. 

[dallas]

For the record, I don't think Beekeeper is actually gonna do $193K in presales. Aquaman 2 is the only comp I had so that's what I used 

[vafrow]

I'm not doing a full track on it, but, Night Swim has sold 60 tickets for Thursday previews in my five theatre sample (western Greater Toronto Area, MTC4 theatres). It puts it about on par with where Nun 2 was, and probably around 50-60% of where Saw X was.

[TwoMisfits]

10 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Not sure how much Memory is expanding this weekend, but Atom is offering free tickets.

 

Not much since the big 3 passed in my area (I looked for the free tickets for a date night, and closest spot is the next state away)...

[TwoMisfits]

9 hours ago, dallas said:

The Beekeeper

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-9 

6 tickets sold

 

(0.043x) of Aquaman 2 - $193,500

 

Absolutely zero interest in this movie. I hope the pace improves because if not, this movie is genuinely DOA. 

 

No one will buy til the Atom deal drops...if its DOA then, yeah, it's doomed to not even be Plane (which would be the film I comped it with)...

[Shawn Robbins]

Hi All,

 

Slowly working my way back onto the grid over the next few days/weeks. Thank you to everyone who reached out recently after my last post. Still difficult times but going through the healing process as much as possible.

 

I'll be trying to resume forecast regularity as much as possible, though there may be some changes here and there. Night Swim should be up soon (thinking 10-15).

 

Thanks again everyone,

Shawn

[misterpepp]

I.S.S. on sale Friday.

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Bob Marley: One Love T-42: 33.97%

The Fall Guy T-121: 26.26%

Furiosa T-142: 22.62%

Bad Boys 4 T-163: 40.99%

Twisters T-198: 26.8%

Joker: Folie a Deux T-275: 35.22%

 

Night Swim T-2: 41.71% Awareness

Final Awareness: 86% chance of 10M, 53% chance of 20M, 30% chance of 30M, 19% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 62% chance of 20M, 25% chance of 40M

 

Argylle T-30: 19.05% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

Medium Awareness: 11% chance of 10M

 

Lisa Frankenstein T-37: 24.09% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 53% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 35% chance of 10M

 

Dune: Part Two T-58: 40.12% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 78% chance of 40M, 61% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 60M, 33% chance of 70M, 22% chance of 90M, 17% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 80% chance of 40M, 60% chance of 60M, 20% chance of 70M

[TwoMisfits]

So, my Cinemark has a Beekeper early access show this Saturday...did we know that?