The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows Final - 47397/55706 914581.85 182 shows +3634

Previews(T-4) - 86404/554093 1659675.30 2814 shows +6180

Friday - 98029/808399 1860059.53 4083 shows +9685

Saturday - 102841/849882 1862895.15 4296 shows +10678

 

~2m ish early BO as expected. Not sure if studio would even separate it out or add it to previews or even just friday BO as some studios have done. Anyway headwind for thursday ticket sales is gone and I am expecting big acceleration tomorrow with double boost coming from early WOM from fan screenings. 

 

Based on saturday number and pace and expected show times, I am expecting 30m+ BO that day. Let us see how presales go next 2 days to confirm my expectations 🙂.  

That would be great. 

[Porthos]

On 2/24/2024 at 11:49 PM, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	185	23090	26397	3307	12.53%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

190

 

T-5 Comps

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	58.50		251	5653		0/297	31137/36790	15.37%		11757	28.13%		14.28m
Thor 4	36.87		302	8969		0/251	24732/33701	26.61%		16962	19.50%		10.69m
BP2	34.75		412	9516		2/307	28444/37960	25.07%		16800	19.68%		9.73m
AM3	52.40		127	6311		0/249	27315/33626	18.77%		10475	31.57%		9.17m
GOTG3	63.44		265	5213		0/226	26601/31814	16.39%		10750	30.76%		11.10m
Dune	274.67		63	1204		0/79	11124/12328	9.77%		2915	113.45%		14.01m
TGM	49.70		312	6654		0/271	30655/37309	17.83%		11474	28.82%		9.57m
JWD	71.60		449	4619		0/224	23313/27932	16.54%		10966	30.16%		12.89m
Ava 2	70.57		296	4686		0/198	22541/27227	17.21%		8986	36.80%		12.00m
Wick 4	160.22		166	2064		0/118	14480/16544	12.48%		5448	60.70%		14.26m
Fast X	202.26		74	1635		0/179	26509/28144	5.81%		4122	80.23%		15.17m
TLM	122.62		124	2697		0/175	22324/25021	10.78%		6561	50.40%		12.63m
Indy 5	162.35		162	2037		0/134	18676/20713	9.83%		4767	69.37%		11.69m
Oppy	150.25		130	2201		0/77	8355/10556	20.85%		4621	71.56%		15.78m
Bats Tue EA T-1	104.90		9	715		0/3	100/815	87.73%		743	100.94%		2.10m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:        914/7852  [11.64% sold]
Matinee:    118/2840  [4.15% | 3.57% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:          750/814  [92.14% sold] [+30 tickets]
Thr:    2557/25583  [9.99% sold] [+160 tickets]
PLF:    2547/10215  [24.93% | 77.02% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

A very nice T-5 Saturday, even if one takes the Sunday EA sales out of the equation.  Thursday sales staying more or less flat from T-6 Fri (Fri: 167 | Sat 160) is... Well it's never a bad sign, I'll put it that way.  To put it another way, it's no guarantee (as, say Indy 5 shows), but staying flat-ish (or rising) is usually a good omen for week-of sales. 

 

Still omen is all it is.

 

ETA:

 

Oh, I forgot to note something important (at least locally).

 

Dune: Part Two's EA Sunday sales has now passed the final total of The Batman's Tue EA sales, locally.  And they are lit-er-a-ly at the exact same three theaters.

 

Not sure what that's gonna signal for D2's Sun EA nationwide as, quite literally, it's running out of capacity here (as did Batsy).  Still, somewhat noteworthy.

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	186	22983	26551	3568	13.44%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	154
Total Seats Sold Today	261

 

T-4 Comps

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	59.26		368	6021		0/297	30769/36790	16.37%		11757	30.35%		14.47m
Thor 4	37.33		590	9559		0/251	24142/33701	28.36%		16962	21.04%		10.82m
BP2	35.21		618	10134		2/308	27930/38064	26.62%		16800	21.24%		9.86m
AM3	53.95		303	6614		0/251	27082/33696	19.63%		10475	34.06%		9.44m
GOTG3	68.44		265	5213		0/226	26601/31814	16.39%		10750	33.19%		11.98m
Dune	267.47		130	1334		0/79	10936/12270	10.87%		2915	122.40%		13.64m
TGM	50.04		476	7130		0/271	30179/37309	19.11%		11474	31.10%		9.64m
JWD	67.73		649	5268		0/224	22664/27932	18.86%		10966	32.54%		12.19m
Ava 2	70.04		408	5094		0/204	22706/27800	18.32%		8986	39.71%		11.91m
Wick 4	172.87		166	2064		0/118	14480/16544	12.48%		5448	65.49%		15.39m
Fast X	218.23		74	1635		0/179	26509/28144	5.81%		4122	86.56%		16.37m
TLM	132.30		124	2697		0/175	22324/25021	10.78%		6561	54.38%		13.63m
Indy 5	175.16		162	2037		0/134	18676/20713	9.83%		4767	74.85%		12.61m
Oppy	162.11		130	2201		0/77	8355/10556	20.85%		4621	77.21%		17.02m
Bats Tue EA T-0	106.19		28	743		0/3	72/815	91.17%		743	106.19%		2.12m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:       978/8006  [12.22% sold]
Matinee:    121/2840  [4.26% | 3.39% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:             789/814  [96.93% sold] [+39 tickets] [FINAL]
Thr:        2779/25737 [10.80% sold] [+222 tickets]

PLF:          2714/10865 [24.98% | 76.07% of all tickets sold]

Thr PLF:   1988/10051 [19.78% sold | 71.54% of Thr Tickets sold]

======

 

Solid enough of a Sat/Sun jump for pure Thr tickets, I think (160 -> 222).  The EA makes it truly hard to judge though.  What I can say is that the EA shows were sellouts in all but name only.  Just a handful of wheelchair/assist seats and like, two to six regular seats per theater. 

 

Will WOM spread from that?  Find out soon enough.

Edited February 27 by Porthos

[leoh]

3 hours ago, Grand Cine said:

I see in the old Tracking Thread and i see a comparaison with TLM , ok not the best comp but the same jump in sales the last two days

 

TLM at T-5 :

Previews(T-5) - 61229/918650 1050194.73 5606 shows +4173

Friday - 72481/1040087 1189629.95 5743 shows +7951

 

Dune 2 at T-5 :

Previews(T-5) - 80224/553651 1550141.86 2809 shows +3532

Friday -  88344/808399 1688691.96 4083 shows +6161

 

TLM at T-4 :

Previews(T-4) - 67189/919974 1146903.83 5615 shows +5960

Friday - 81668/1041293 1333447.74 5758 shows +9187

 

Dune 2 at T-4 :

Previews(T-4) - 86404/554093 1659675.30 2814 shows +6180

Friday - 98029/808399 1860059.53 4083 shows +9685

 

Ok it's only two days of tracking for comparaison but I noticed that and i think it could be interesting

 

PS : TLM had also EA in Wednesday but they are much lower than Dune 2 ( around 60% of the the potential for all the seats available ) so the impact for Thursday Previews ( to not take off) was much lower . That’s why now the previews pace today was better

 

 

TLM?

[stripe]

11 minutes ago, leoh said:

TLM?

The Little Mermaid

[M37]

Looks like we are almost here now

 

On 2/5/2024 at 2:24 PM, M37 said:

Just going to plant a quick flag ....

 

All-in-all, I expect Dune II to be a relatively boring track. There will probably be some time in the middle where daily sales are solid, comps drift up, and some people will start to dream of bigger numbers with an accelerated high-pace finish ... but IMO its more likely it winds up a more tepid final few days (relatively speaking) and we'll circle back in the same range everyone has it at now.  Like Avatar 2, but at half the total volume (for Thursday, +EA)

 

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Based on saturday number and pace and expected show times, I am expecting 30m+ BO that day. Let us see how presales go next 2 days to confirm my expectations

My expectations are for Saturday's gross to be ~2.6-2.7x Thursday. Otherwise we're looking at IM well over 8x, if not 9x

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-5 Thursday previews and T-1 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 712

New Sales: 57

Growth: 8.7%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 44

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 16.2

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 13/11

Early Evening: 503/21

Late Evening: 196/12

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 179/8

IMAX: 359/4

VIP: 153/12

Regular: 12/21

4dx: 17/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.462 of Marvels for $9.6M

2.859 of HG: BoSS for $16.4M

 

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 647

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 37

Growth: 6.1%

 

Preview shows maintaining the same growth patterns basically. Going up slightly, but this where you'd expect it. 

 

EA shows are pretty much near sellouts. Were down to first few front rows. I would expect that these may fill out over the course of the day. 

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-4 Thursday previews

 

Previews

Total Sales: 810

New Sales: 98

Growth: 13.8%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 44

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 18.4

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 23/11

Early Evening: 556/21

Late Evening: 231/12

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 202/8

IMAX: 389/4

VIP: 185/12

Regular: 17/21

4dx: 17/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.561of Marvels for $10.3M

2.765 of HG: BoSS for $15.9M

 

Best growth day outside the first week. Not particularly close either. The Marvels comp now firmly above $10M.

 

I'm guessing getting past the EA shows means the previews are grabbing more of the demand. Although, it's worth noting that the breakdown of sales is starting to tilt away from being IMAX focused, and some of the recently added showtimes are grabbing some sales, so there's less fully empty showings.

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-12 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 54

New Sales: 6

Growth: 13%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.9

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 3/2

Late Afternoon: 11/2

Early Evening: 27/5

Late Evening: 13/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 39/8
3D Regular: 6/5
Dolby: 9/1

 

Comps

2.077x Wonka for $7.3M

 

Zero sales day. Not much to really report.

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-11 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 56

New Sales: 2

Growth: 4%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.0

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 3/2

Late Afternoon: 11/2

Early Evening: 29/5

Late Evening: 13/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 41/8
3D Regular: 6/5
Dolby: 9/1

 

Comps

2.154x Wonka for $7.5M

 

We seem to be in a slow stretch. But this is still doing pretty well for what it ism

[dallas]

I still think an $80M opening is likely. Nothing I've seen suggests otherwise. I still believe in ~$10.5M previews. And fwiw only one theater in my area got EA screenings, so I only expect WOM boost from that area. Will post my first Kung Fu Panda 4 update tonight. 

[iEnri]

When will we get the numbers for the Dune EA?

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Dune: Part Two	T-3	Jax	6	65	851*	851	10,737	7.93%
		Phx	6	55	637*	637	10,149	6.28%
		Ral	8	59	786*	786	8,358	9.40%
	T-3		20	179	2,274*	2,274	29,244	7.78%

*New... first time tracking in five months...

 

T-3 comps

 - Dune - 1.93x (9.84m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .574x (8.43m)

 - Batman - .427x (7.51m)

 - Jurassic World 3 - .536x (9.49m)

 - Eternals - .856x (8.13m)

 - Black Widow - .635x (8.38m)

 - Flash - 1.13x (10.98m)

 

All comps excluding EA (where applicable).  Sounds like EA did very well.  Forecast is at 9.3m for previews before adding EA. 

[TheFlatLannister]

48 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Dune: Part Two	T-3	Jax	6	65	851*	851	10,737	7.93%
		Phx	6	55	637*	637	10,149	6.28%
		Ral	8	59	786*	786	8,358	9.40%
	T-3		20	179	2,274*	2,274	29,244	7.78%

*New... first time tracking in five months...

 

T-3 comps

 - Dune - 1.93x (9.84m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .574x (8.43m)

 - Batman - .427x (7.51m)

 - Jurassic World 3 - .536x (9.49m)

 - Eternals - .856x (8.13m)

 - Black Widow - .635x (8.38m)

 - Flash - 1.13x (10.98m)

 

All comps excluding EA (where applicable).  Sounds like EA did very well.  Forecast is at 9.3m for previews before adding EA. 

Welcome back. Today is a big day for Dune imo. Early IMDB numbers are out and it’s at 9.4 and cinemascore will for sure be at least an A. If we are going to see a major acceleration it is today with EA out of the way. 

[abracadabra1998]

55 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Dune: Part Two	T-3	Jax	6	65	851*	851	10,737	7.93%
		Phx	6	55	637*	637	10,149	6.28%
		Ral	8	59	786*	786	8,358	9.40%
	T-3		20	179	2,274*	2,274	29,244	7.78%

*New... first time tracking in five months...

 

T-3 comps

 - Dune - 1.93x (9.84m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .574x (8.43m)

 - Batman - .427x (7.51m)

 - Jurassic World 3 - .536x (9.49m)

 - Eternals - .856x (8.13m)

 - Black Widow - .635x (8.38m)

 - Flash - 1.13x (10.98m)

 

All comps excluding EA (where applicable).  Sounds like EA did very well.  Forecast is at 9.3m for previews before adding EA. 

The return!! Missed you!!

[leoh]

1 hour ago, iEnri said:

When will we get the numbers for the Dune EA?

 

 

It’s already revealed.

 

Dune EA got 1.9M. 

 

Just a bit less than what it was expected to do.

 

Most of projections were expecting 2M+, anyways close enough.

 

 

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kung Fu Panda 4	T-10	Jax	5	39	63*	63	4,580	1.38%
		Phx	6	28	89*	89	4,540	1.96%
		Ral	8	44	117*	117	5,047	2.32%
	T-10		19	111	269*	269	14,167	1.90%

 

T-10 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .805x (2.5m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .48x (3m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .45x (2.52m)

 

Forecast model is sitting at 2.45m

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Dune: Part Two	T-3	Jax	6	65	851*	851	10,737	7.93%
		Phx	6	55	637*	637	10,149	6.28%
		Ral	8	59	786*	786	8,358	9.40%
	T-3		20	179	2,274*	2,274	29,244	7.78%

*New... first time tracking in five months...

 

T-3 comps

 - Dune - 1.93x (9.84m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .574x (8.43m)

 - Batman - .427x (7.51m)

 - Jurassic World 3 - .536x (9.49m)

 - Eternals - .856x (8.13m)

 - Black Widow - .635x (8.38m)

 - Flash - 1.13x (10.98m)

 

All comps excluding EA (where applicable).  Sounds like EA did very well.  Forecast is at 9.3m for previews before adding EA. 

 

49 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kung Fu Panda 4	T-10	Jax	5	39	63*	63	4,580	1.38%
		Phx	6	28	89*	89	4,540	1.96%
		Ral	8	44	117*	117	5,047	2.32%
	T-10		19	111	269*	269	14,167	1.90%

 

T-10 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .805x (2.5m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .48x (3m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .45x (2.52m)

 

Forecast model is sitting at 2.45m

 

(this meme sometimes gets posted way too casually.  But in this case?  Truer words never spoken ❤️)

[Maaatt]

48 minutes ago, leoh said:

 

 

It’s already revealed.

 

Dune EA got 1.9M. 

 

Just a bit less than what it was expected to do.

 

Most of projections were expecting 2M+, anyways close enough.

 

 

 

That was an “early estimate” not official WB numbers.. which probably wont come out until perhaps Friday morning with the figure imbedded with the Thursday preview numbers. 

[keysersoze123]

As others said, welcome back @katnisscinnaplex. Waiting for show counts report this week as well 😃

[keysersoze123]

I hope @rehpyc also resurfaces this week and provide updates 🙂

[misterpepp]

My reliable go-to guy says Interstellar will be getting a re-release this summer (although could be as late as September), with at least IMAX on board.

 

Additional aside, you can now buy concessions on Fandango starting today.

Edited February 26 by misterpepp

[MrPink]

24 minutes ago, misterpepp said:

My reliable go-to guy says Interstellar will be getting a re-release this summer (although could be as late as September), with at least IMAX on board.

 

Additional aside, you can now buy concessions on Fandango starting today.

 

10 year re-release in an empty post August market makes a lot of sense. And it'll probably do some sizable numbers given how many people seemingly missed this in IMAX the first go around.