The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[ZackM]

23 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Barbie Friday and Saturday

 

Friday
Theaters - 417
Showings - 7,049
Sold - 281,806
Total - 1,095,658
ATP - $15.25

 

Saturday
Theaters - 417
Showings - 7,063
Sold - 208,152
Total - 1,101,387
ATP - $14.84

 

Barbie Friday and Saturday

 

Friday
Theaters - 417
Showings - 7,186
Sold - 341,564
Total - 1,113,814
ATP - $15.03

 

Saturday
Theaters - 417
Showings - 7,173
Sold - 251,068
Total - 1,113,920
ATP - $14.66
 

[Bob-omb]

6 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

Bigger day than everything other than NWH.

 

Barbie Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	166	1,006	624	54	82
Seats Added	14,965	122,030	79,586	7,383	11,724
Seats Sold	42,664	31,753	25,344	16,443	10,857
7/19/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	416	4,676	248,478	675,256	36.80%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	2	94	333	776	1,318
ATP	Gross
$15.74	$3,911,044

 

 

Barbie Blowout Party: Early Access Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: D0 Final
7/19/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	108	108	19,735	20,668	95.49%
ATP	Gross
$21.11	$416,606

 

Bigger than endgame?  

[Bob-omb]

6 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

Oppenheimer Friday and Saturday

 

Friday
Theaters - 429
Showings - 4,185
Sold - 205,521
Total - 708,789
ATP - $16.57
 

Saturday
Theaters - 429
Showings - 4,186
Sold - 200,553
Total - 711,833
ATP - $16.00
 

What is impressive to me is that Oppenheimer is quite stable. I think it will be easier to predict its OW than Barbie IMO. It seems that it will remain flatter than Barbie during the weekend. Or am I reading this wrong?

[ZackM]

Just now, Bob-omb said:

Bigger than endgame?  

 

No, sorry.  I'm always speaking in a post COVID context.

[SpiderByte]

Studios will, one hundred percent, take away the complete wrong lessons from this

[Hiccup23]

At my two local theaters Barbie and Oppenheimer are selling like crazy for previews today. Here is the numbers prior to the showings starting and walk ups. Barbie has more showings while Oppenheimer is closer to selling out more due to lack of more showings. Also Barbie is getting the premium screens (!!) did something change?

 

Barbie- 1,520/4,165 tickets sold (36.5%)

Oppenheimer- 627/1,488 tickets sold (42.1%)

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

C'mon Oppy, break 10m for previews so we can have two movies do it simultaneously for the first time ever!

[TheHanyo]

9 minutes ago, Hiccup23 said:

At my two local theaters Barbie and Oppenheimer are selling like crazy for previews today. Here is the numbers prior to the showings starting and walk ups. Barbie has more showings while Oppenheimer is closer to selling out more due to lack of more showings. Also Barbie is getting the premium screens (!!) did something change?

 

Barbie- 1,520/4,165 tickets sold (36.5%)

Oppenheimer- 627/1,488 tickets sold (42.1%)

There are only two showings of Oppy tonight at my local theater-- and 11 showings of Barbie.

[SpiderByte]

How many completely artificially created Barbenheimer copycats are we going to get after this? Will we even have to wait till the end of this year for them to try? Dunevels? Wishapoleon? Five Nights At Jigsaws?

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

How many completely artificially created Barbenheimer copycats are we going to get after this? Will we even have to wait till the end of this year for them to try? Dunevels? Wishapoleon? Five Nights At Jigsaws?

My Big Fat Greek Nun.

[ringedmortality]

4 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

How many completely artificially created Barbenheimer copycats are we going to get after this? Will we even have to wait till the end of this year for them to try? Dunevels? Wishapoleon? Five Nights At Jigsaws?

 

A Panda Place: Day Four

[SpiderByte]

I guarantee there's gonna be at least two studios who deliberately try to recreate this, what is basically a freak accident, as their actual marketing campaigns and it's going to be catastrophically embarrassing and it'll tank both movies 

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

Biggest theatre chain in Greece has now taken showings from all other movies and have given them to Barbie. Basically they only play Barbie now. I checked all locations and the vast majority is sold out with few being near-sold out for opening day. And it actually has many sold out showing throughout out the weekend. The most impressive thing is that Thursday- Sunday are not typical the day that Greeks choose to go to a movie. I am absolutely at awe at Barbie’s presales. It is performing like an event comic book movie in a pre-Covid world or like NWH. Absolutely bonkers.
 

PS Oppenheimer does not open here until August.

[M37]

On 7/18/2023 at 11:51 AM, M37 said:

Barbenheimer T-3 Update

 

Was hoping to have last Alpha update to add into, but instead just keeping those values flat form yesterday so as not to throw off averages too much

 

Charts:

  Reveal hidden contents

Definitely some leveling off here

 

 

Some here, but still generally growing vs comps

 

And combined:

 

Analysis

  Reveal hidden contents

Its very difficult at this point to find a Barbie comp that's under $20M for Thursday, unless you start dipping into MCU tentpoles or Avatar 2, with huge fan rush and lower pace finish (or a few in Sacto).  I still think we're going to somewhat of pace slowdown, if not by nature of the hype and audience demos pulling sales earlier, than simply by pushing up against limits on capacity

 

I know the capacity issue keeps coming up, so time to put some numbers to it: At T-4, ATSV had 4K shows and 750K seats allocated for MTC1, growing to nearly 5K and 860K+ by T-1. Meanwhile, Barbie at T-4 (slightly different sample), has only 2,880 shows and less than 460K seats in total, and while that number should rise, it seems unlikely to even match ATSV ... which had reports of lack of seats for Thursday's $17.35M preview gross, and that was with the full PLF run helping to boost ATP (meaning Barbie has to sell more tickets to match the $ value). And just for fun, GOTG3 at T-1 had over 7000 shows and nearly 1.2M seats available, with Thor last July a bit higher for its $29M Thursday preview gross

 

But with all that said, and less confidence than usual, I guess put me down for $9-$10M+ for Oppy, and ~$21-25M for Barbie, and a combined preview of at least $30M, above anything since Strange MoM's $36M. But also want to plant a flag that anything on the lower end or even outside of it shouldn't be viewed as "disappointing", because even at T-3 there really hasn't been a comp that has reveled itself as lighting the way, so we don't really know if those mid-$20M values for Barbie are to be "expected" from this point

 

Weekend sales look very strong for both, so even if the presale pace does tail off a bit, still should see solid IMs (for summer) and a $200M+ combined OW is very much in range

 

Barbenheimer T-1 Update

 

As the excitement for an historic weekend builds, all updates are in early!

 

Oppenheimer

Spoiler

Have definitely seen some flattening and general convergence over the last few days

 

The average never quite reached $10M, and has dipped a bit the last few days. Normally would project a fairly standard +55% final day for Alpha, but with capacity limitations, think it comes in closer to the more CBM range of +45%, but that total would be just shy of 200K tickets sold and over 55% capacity, so could go even lower. Not going to be surprised if the preview number starts with a 8, but that's more a reflection of lack of supply than demand, as well a potential metro/PLF overindex, and will be more than made back over the weekend given where those sales land

 

Preview Estimate: $8-$9.5M

 

Come on Barbie, Let's Go Party

Spoiler

It took way longer than normal, but Barbie looks to have finally found her level, average slowing rising from ~$21M at T-7 to ~$23M for last couple of days

 

 

Once again, a typical +55% final day would be ~420K total Alpha tickets, but like Oppy that would be over 50% capacity, so may not get all the way there. And, as Porthos and others have noted, there will need to some level of ATP adjustment for limited PLF shows, but at this volume of ticket sales, since PLF has a fixed & limited capacity, I don't think it will too much of a reduction

 

Preview Prediction: $20-$24M

 

Barbenheimer

Spoiler

Focusing just on Alpha comps, and adjusting the PSM for each to an estimated $55/tix (between MCU standard of ~$57 and ATSV's $53), and lookie here:

 

Barbie couldn't keep up with ATSV's review bump, and almost certainly won't be the walk-up monster of JWD (+67% final day!), so all comps look set to mostly converge around $33-$34M, depending on how strong or limited walk-ups are in the final day. The actual value may be higher or lower depending on how the PSM goes

 

Overall, expecting 600K+ total tickets between the two titles for the Thursday previews just for Alpha, +15% vs Thor and +20% vs BPWF, and something like a $9M/$24M gross split

 

And finally ...

Spoiler

Just wanted to give a heads up that Barbenheimer will be my last active track for a little while - going out with a bang at least! Have some things going in my personal life (nothing bad!), just need to put extra attention elsewhere. Will (probably) still be around this thread and BOT generally, but setting the spreadsheets and charts aside for the time being, only back of the napkin analysis

 

Buckle up, enjoy the Thursday and weekend ride, because this kind of dual opening is not likely something we're going to see again for a very long time

Edited July 20, 2023 by M37

[LonePirate]

Here are the 5pm and 9pm showings for Opp at the Regal IMAX I attend. The 7pm MI7 showing I attended in this same theater last Thursday night had maybe 80 people in it. There are about 600 total seats here. F/S are running shows at 11/3/7/11 and the 7pm shows both days have sold about 15% more seats than either of tonight’s shows but the 11pm show has sold about 60% less. The 11am shows are relatively light but the 3pm shows are solid, especially Saturday. Domestically, Sat could see an increase from true Fri which is almost certainly due to the target audience working during the first shows on Friday.

 

[Grebacio]

36 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

How many completely artificially created Barbenheimer copycats are we going to get after this? Will we even have to wait till the end of this year for them to try? Dunevels? Wishapoleon? Five Nights At Jigsaws?

I def plan on doing a Ninja Turtles/Meg double feature but I don't expect it to be a viral thing.

[SpiderByte]

1 minute ago, Grebacio said:

I def plan on doing a Ninja Turtles/Meg double feature but I don't expect it to be a viral thing.

Oh I don't mean actually going viral, but studios trying to get it to deliberately go viral

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

 

 

And finally ...

  Reveal hidden contents

Just wanted to give a heads up that Barbenheimer will be my last active track for a little while - going out with a bang at least! Have some things going in my personal life (nothing bad!), just need to put extra attention elsewhere. Will (probably) still be around this thread and BOT generally, but setting the spreadsheets and charts aside for the time being, only back of the napkin analysis

 

 

 

Hopefully we still see you around. I imagine I speak for many people that your analysis has been great, and helps make sense of a lot of different data here.

 

I also hope the real life stuff is going well, and if things settle into a routine enough eventually.

[Tinalera]

A special Barbie T-1 

 

Barbie

Thurs July 20 and Fri July 21

Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto and Montreal

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	4	25	2969	751	3720	0.7981
	Fri	4	26	3357	1324	4681	0.7171
Calgary	Thurs	4	18	1495	1319	2814	0.5312
	Fri	4	24	2000	3240	5240	0.3816

 

Toronto	Thurs	4	27	4474	2646	7120	0.6283
	Fri	4	51	5050	8797	13847	0.3646
Montreal	Thurs	2	9	2321	720	3041	0.7632
	Fri	4	33	3085	6237	9322	0.3309

 

I counted at least 6 sellouts with many getting very close and will be for Thurs especially. Someone mentioned something about Disney still having screens tied up for Indy still, was seeing a lot of this here, very few Imax/prestige screens.

Still this is incredible to see this with a non-tentpole movie. Have to wonder whoever (be it Hasbro or Aqua) not allowing the Barbie girl song in the movie might be seen as a huge missed opportunity. 

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Bigger day than everything other than NWH.

 

Barbie Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	166	1,006	624	54	82
Seats Added	14,965	122,030	79,586	7,383	11,724
Seats Sold	42,664	31,753	25,344	16,443	10,857
7/19/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	416	4,676	248,478	675,256	36.80%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	2	94	333	776	1,318
ATP	Gross
$15.74	$3,911,044

 

 

Barbie Blowout Party: Early Access Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: D0 Final
7/19/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	108	108	19,735	20,668	95.49%
ATP	Gross
$21.11	$416,606

 

Should finish 400k+. Let us see how high it goes. This is easily one of the biggest WTF previews as Day 1 of its PS did not looking anywhere in this ballpark.