The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[emoviefan]

16 minutes ago, dallas said:

Ah, the Deadline lowball. 

Everybody is so gun shy right now. They do not even want to take a chance and out go out on a limb that it might break out.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/4/2024 at 7:13 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

Bad Boys

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
697	5272	134902	3.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1329

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

125

 

COMPS

T-2

(1.263x) of Apes $6.31M 

(2.507x) of Fall Guy $5.77M 
Comps AVG: $6.04M 

 

Excellent day. Really starting to accelerate. Thinking $6M previews could happen

FLORIDA 

Bad Boys

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
709	7179	137681	5.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1907

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

COMPS

T-1

(1.478x) of Apes $7.39M 

(2.432x) of Fall Guy $5.59M 
Comps AVG: $6.49M 

 

Actually one of the strongest late growth i've tracked in a long time. Truly amazing day. Could this reach $6.5M previews???

[Blaze Heatnix]

56 minutes ago, dallas said:

Ah, the Deadline lowball. 

 

They're saying the presales for Bad Boys 4 are behind the previous movie.

[emoviefan]

7 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

Bad Boys

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
709	7179	137681	5.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1907

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

COMPS

T-1

(1.478x) of Apes $7.39M 

(2.432x) of Fall Guy $5.59M 
Comps AVG: $6.49M 

 

Actually one of the strongest late growth i've tracked in a long time. Truly amazing day. Could this reach $6.5M previews???

It's like this is a late ticket buy/walkup/friendly franchise or something.

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

 

They're saying the presales for Bad Boys 4 are behind the previous movie.

We need to really take anything Deadline Anthony says with a huge grain of salt.

[dallas]

Bad Boys: Ride or Die

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-1

Tickets Sold: 258

Growth: N/A

% PLF: 11.2%

5 theaters/37 showtimes

 

Comps:

(0.959x) of Aquaman 2 - $4.32M

 

Aquaman 2 is the only decent comp I've got for this, but not a bad total at all. I think this breaks 5M and will probably go upwards of 6/6.5M. This might be the breakout hit we need right now.

[AniNate]

Real talk, is it really a bad thing to be gunshy given how doomy this forum gets when highball predictions are even a tenth of a million over?

 

 

Edited June 6 by AniNate

[Flip]

On 6/4/2024 at 10:22 PM, Flip said:

Inside Out 2 (T-9)

12 showtimes/199 tix sold (+7)

 

Bad Boys 4 (T-2)

 

21 showtimes/334 tix sold (+118)

 

1.18x Furiosa T-2 (last day I took Furiosa so no more comps) great jump.

 

Watchers (T-2)

 

8 showtimes/88 tix sold (+15) Less sold than yesterday

 

A Quiet Place (T-23

 

12 showtimes/108 tix sold (-1)

Inside Out 2 (T-8)

12 showtimes/219 tix sold (+20)

 

1.738x Bad Boys 4 T-8 (only comp)

 

A Quiet Place (T-22)

 

12 showtimes/114 tix sold (+6)

 

Despicable Me (T-28)

 

22 showtimes/44 tix sold

.678x Inside Out T-24 (had been on sale for a while)

.580x AQP Day One First day

 

 

 

[Flip]

On 6/4/2024 at 10:22 PM, Flip said:

Bad Boys 4 (T-2)

 

21 showtimes/334 tix sold (+118)

 

1.18x Furiosa T-2 (last day I took Furiosa so no more comps) great jump.

 

Watchers (T-2)

 

8 showtimes/88 tix sold (+15) Less sold than yesterday

Bad Boys 4 (T-1)

 

21 showtimes/507 tix sold (+173)

 

Watchers (T-1)

 

8 showtimes/103 tix sold (+15) same sold as yesterday

 

unfortunately I don’t have any comps

[Flip]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

When did they went on sale?

Same day as other tickets 

[Insomnia]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

Real talk, is it really a bad thing to be gunshy given how doomy this forum gets when highball predictions are even a tenth of a million over?

 

 

I'm pretty new to all this but I don't think so at all. I know I've told myself that I'm tired of having preconceived notions about these films' performances, even if it's based on solid evidence and reasoning. The box office, and really the entire entertainment landscape, is changing right now. Consumers are tough to get read on.

 

I do feel confident about the month of July though, and it's not just because of the titles being released that month. It feels like studios are honing in on that specific part of summer, rather than treating the entire summer stretch the same. It's been suggested - and I feel it makes a lot of sense - that July is "beat the heat month" when audiences are ready and willing to play ball. In a climate where PLF's are king and movies need space, studios still seem willing to stack the month. I think it just works, as Barbenheimer showed last year. Look at the schedule next year in July. 

 

Anyway all that to say I feel like DM4, Twisters and D&W are all going to do gangbusters because audiences seem to be game for movie theatres during that time.

Edited June 6 by Insomnia

[Cmasterclay]

Doesn't Keyser have BB3 numbers? We can probably tell whether what Deadline is saying is true (I don't doubt that it is).

[crazymoviekid]

On 6/4/2024 at 11:42 PM, crazymoviekid said:

Bad Boys: Ride or Die

 

Thursday Comp: 

 

Theater 1: 18 Tickets

Theater 2: 23 Tickets

 

KotPotA: $5.13M

Equalizer III: $4.21M

T:RotB: $4.33M

Fast X: $3.31M

JW4: $2.83M

Creed III: $2.62M

 

Decent day. Strong in between $4M-$5.5M.

 

Friday Comp: 

 

Theater 1: 57 Tickets

Theater 2: 33 Tickets

 

KotPotA: $19.73M

Equalizer III: $13.87M

T:RotB: $12.13M

Fast X: $13.58M

JW4: $11.77M

Creed III: $9.14M

 

Finally a healthy opening, looking around $12M-$14M unless there's a much needed surge.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die

 

Thursday Comp: 

 

Theater 1: 42 Tickets

Theater 2: 36 Tickets

 

KotPotA: $6.72M

Equalizer III: $4.49M

T:RotB: $6.51M

Fast X: $3.95M

JW4: $4.04M

Creed III: $3.35M

 

Comps starting to go up up up. Looking between $4.5M-$6.5M

 

Friday Comp: 

 

Theater 1: 81 Tickets

Theater 2: 58 Tickets

 

KotPotA: $21.21M

Equalizer III: $13.25M

T:RotB: $16.61M

Fast X: $15.01M

JW4: $13.40M

Creed III: $9.85M

 

Another rise in sales. Looking between $14M-$16M

[crazymoviekid]

On 6/4/2024 at 11:44 PM, crazymoviekid said:

The Watchers: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 2 Tickets

Theater 2: 9 Tickets

 

Tarot: $.98M

Abigail: $1.57M

Night Swim: $1.77M

The Boogeyman: $4.13M

Knock at the Cabin: $1.27M

 

Getting tighter to $1.25M-$1.5M.

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 3 Tickets
Theater 2: 7 Tickets

 

Tarot: $6.12M
Abigail: $5.06M
Night Swim: $4.22M
The Boogeyman: $7.48M
Knock at the Cabin: $1.89M

 

Aiming best between $4M-$6M for now

The Watchers: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 3 Tickets

Theater 2: 10 Tickets

 

Tarot: $1.03M

Abigail: $.93M

Night Swim: $1.45M

The Boogeyman: $1.22M

Knock at the Cabin: $1.15M

 

Little drop today. Very strong in between $1M-$1.25M. 

 

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 3 Tickets
Theater 2: 5 Tickets

 

Tarot: $2.45M
Abigail: $2.70M
Night Swim: $2.17M
The Boogeyman: $3.74M
Knock at the Cabin: $1.06M

 

Overall loss of sales. Looking best around $2M-$3M. Rip

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Doesn't Keyser have BB3 numbers? We can probably tell whether what Deadline is saying is true (I don't doubt that it is).

I think its impossible for it to go that low. I expect True friday at this point to beat true friday of BB3. Obviously the saturday boost would be way less and so it will lose to BB3 on sat/sun (that opened on MLK weekend and so Sunday was boosted). I am thinking mid 50s OW but let us see how walkups go tomorrow. 

[Relevation]

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1)

06/06/24

Bad Boys: Ride or Die - 122 tickets sold

The Watchers - 15 tickets sold

 

COMPS

Bad Boys: Ride or Die

0.36x of Bob Marley: One Love ($5.01M)

0.65x of Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire ($6.52M)

1.69x of Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes ($8.47M)

AVERAGE: $6.67M

 

The Watchers

0.71x of Abigail ($714K)

0.88x of Imaginary ($639K)

1.15x of The First Omen ($837K)

1.25x of Tarot ($894K)

AVERAGE: $771K

 

Playing with my super walkup heavy comps and underindexers for Bad Boys, because I think they best capture the kinds of walkup craziness this is going for tomorrow. Overall strong picture, damn near $7M in comps because I dropped Fall Guy last minute for comping too low. Potentially risky high average, but enough for me to project $6.50-6.75M THU and a $55-60M OW. Really bleak picture for The Watchers tho, not a single comp even close to $1M and with summer weekdays, the IM is not coming to save this. Trash debut incoming, $700-800K THU and a $6-8M OW.

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/4/2024 at 9:29 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Bad Boys: Ride or Die (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	171	160	465	27078	1.72

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		304	90	65.38
MTC1:		262	84	56.34
Alamo:		24	9	5.16
Other chains:		179	67	38.49

 

Comps: 

0.64x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (THU): $3.2 Million

0.73x Aquaman and the Last Kingdom: $3.3 Million (17 theaters)

4.49x Expend4bles: $3.37 Million (17 theaters)

1.19x Blue Beetle: $3.92 Million (17 theaters)

1.78x The Equalizer 3: $6.77 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $4.11 Million

 

REALLY good update, every comp went up significantly, save for Equalizer 3 which was already a really high comp to begin with. Hopefully keep showing signs of converging. I would still lean more heavily on Equalizer; not in the sense that I expect it to go that high (I for sure do not), but it's the only comp that most mirrors that this movie's target audience. And I cannot overstate it, this state's demographics are overwhelmingly NOT the target audience for it

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Bad Boys: Ride or Die (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	172	267	732	27331	2.68

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		470	166	64.21
MTC1:		352	90	48.09
Alamo:		37	13	5.05
Other chains:		343	164	46.86

 

Comps: 

1x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (THU): $5.04 Million

0.94x Aquaman and the Last Kingdom: $4.22 Million (17 theaters)

5.32x Expend4bles: $4 Million (17 theaters)

1.45x Blue Beetle: $4.79 Million (17 theaters)

2.02x The Equalizer 3: $7.69 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $5.15 Million

 

Tremendous update, I will be able to give a T-1 hour update tomorrow, looking forward to see what the final numbers look like. Probably the fastest rate growth in the last two days of anything I have tracked other than maybe Insidious 5

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/4/2024 at 9:37 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Watchers (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	121	26	126	14274	0.88

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		11	3	8.73
MTC1:		79	20	62.7
Alamo:		18	2	14.29
Other chains:		29	4	23.02

 

Comps: 

0.95x Abigail: $945k

1.27x Imaginary: $920k (17 theaters)

1.18x Last Voyage of Demeter: $880k (17 theaters)

 

Average: $915k

 

At this rate I would not be surprised with anything between $800k-1 Million at this point.

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Watchers (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	121	48	174	14274	1.22

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		12	1	6.9
MTC1:		98	19	56.32
Alamo:		28	10	16.09
Other chains:		48	19	27.59

 

Comps: 

0.92x Abigail: $920k

1.44x Imaginary: $1.04 Million (17 theaters)

1.17x Last Voyage of Demeter: $880k (17 theaters)

 

Average: $945k

 

Same thing here, T-1 hour update tomorrow so hopefully will give some clues at to what walk-ups look like here

[Rorschach]

23 hours ago, Rorschach said:

Bad Boys: Ride or Die (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 61/2,565 (2.4% sold) [+18]

3 IMAX showings: 3/1,164

3 XD showings: 18/714

5 2D showings: 40/687

 

Comps:

The Fall Guy (w/o EA): $4.1 mil

Apes (w/o EA): $3.86 mil

Furiosa: $3.19 mil

Average: $3.72 mil

 

Friday: 65/4,375 (1.5% sold) [+28]

5 IMAX showings: 6/1,940

5 XD showings: 21/1,190

9 2D showings: 38/1,245

 

Comps:

The Fall Guy: $8.66 mil

Apes: $8.16 mil

Furiosa: $5.24 mil

Average: $7.35 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 126/6,940 (1.8% sold) [+46]

 

Comps:

The Fall Guy (w/o EA): $13.55 mil

Apes (w/o EA): $12.77 mil

Furiosa: $8.58 mil

Average: $11.63 mil

 

Not too bad. The Fall Guy's averages dropped heavily from yesterday, whereas Apes and Furiosa each rose, which canceled things out. Would like to see some notable growth tomorrow, though.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 88/2,565 (3.4% sold) [+27]

3 IMAX showings: 7/1,164

3 XD showings: 20/714

5 2D showings: 61/687

 

Comps:

The Fall Guy (w/o EA): $4.14 mil

Apes (w/o EA): $4.36 mil

Furiosa: $3.46 mil

Average: $3.99 mil

 

Friday: 111/4,375 (2.5% sold) [+46]

5 IMAX showings: 10/1,940

5 XD showings: 28/1,190

9 2D showings: 73/1,245

 

Comps:

The Fall Guy: $9.57 mil

Apes: $10.22 mil

Furiosa: $7.61 mil

Average: $9.13 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 199/6,940 (2.9% sold) [+73]

 

Comps:

The Fall Guy (w/o EA): $14.27 mil

Apes (w/o EA): $15.16 mil

Furiosa: $10.9 mil

Average: $13.44 mil

 

Good day. I do get the vibe that this might under-index compared to the comps that other users are sharing, but knowing the demographics of this area (~90% white), that's not too surprising. Will check back tomorrow an hour before the first showtime (3pm CST) for Thursday numbers.

Edited June 6 by Rorschach

[keysersoze123]

On 6/4/2024 at 9:58 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Bad Boys 4 MTC1

Early Shows - 4449/9869 98687.09 46 shows +1538

Previews(T-2) - 37928/616266 691034.13 3238 shows +10729

Friday - 40836/1032027 724787.28 5539 shows +14523

 

I know its TMo/Atom effect but its still very impressive. Probably hitting 100k+ at this point. Can its OW go over last movie? 

Bad Boys 4 MTC1

Early Shows final - 7505/10125 163492.89 47 shows +3056

Previews(T-1) - 50805/621703 909842.50 3279 shows +12877

Friday - 53176/1036976 936019.02 5571 shows +12340

 

Previews pace went up in high teens and Friday pace actually was down from yesterday. That is expected as yesterday was heavily boosted by Tmo/Atom deal. Still this is a very walkup friendly franchise. Last one was at 42333 T-1 and finished at 115040. This may not go that crazy but 110K finish is still possible (~5x T-1 sales). Friday presales are considerably up from last movie. I am expecting bigger OD than last movie but finish lower due to different release months. 

 

MTC2 Early Shows Final - 2142/2949 35315.35 23 shows

 

Early shows should be around ~300K

 

 

 

Edited June 6 by keysersoze123