The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I expect Deadpool to over index in Canada big time due to Ryan Reynolds affect. Did you track how IF did relative to overall domestic?

 

Similar story in Australia where Jackman will help it over index. 

 

IF did poorly out here in my area. But apparently did well out West unsurprisingly.

 

The lack of marketing jumped out to me though as not only is there a Canadiana effect with RR, but Reynolds was literally almost an NHL owner just a year ago.

 

I lack benchmarks with respect to how it's doing up here though for my sample. Only Marvel film tracked is The Marvels, which it's doing much better than.

[keysersoze123]

Maxxxine MTC1

Early shows(7/3) - 5955/39634 91217.99 347 shows 

OD(7/5) - 6484/150838 92004.22 1554 shows

 

Its have not a typical release. i see early shows across multiple days depending on the TC. No previews and its releasing next friday. Early numbers are at least way stronger than what we are seeing for say Horizon this week 🙂 Not sure what to expect @charlie Jatinder

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

I am curious as to what the next catalyst for Deadpool would be. If we assume that the review embargo is similar to IO2 and the 20th Century releases this year, and is a day or two before release, then it wouldn't make much of a difference no? Can't really think of another motivating factor.

 

On another note, if anyone is tracking Longlegs, how is that doing so far? Would MaXXXine work as a comp for that?

[filmlover]

Will 'A Quiet Place: Day One' Dethrone 'Inside Out 2' at Box Office? (variety.com)

 

A Quiet Place: $40-50M

Horizon: $10-15M

 

Kevin Costner's Horizon Saddles Up for Subdued Box Office Opening (hollywoodreporter.com)

 

Just an article about that movie claiming it's tracking for $10-12M

[charlie Jatinder]

39 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Maxxxine MTC1

Early shows(7/3) - 5955/39634 91217.99 347 shows 

OD(7/5) - 6484/150838 92004.22 1554 shows

 

Its have not a typical release. i see early shows across multiple days depending on the TC. No previews and its releasing next friday. Early numbers are at least way stronger than what we are seeing for say Horizon this week 🙂 Not sure what to expect @charlie Jatinder

Its not on sale in MiniTC2. Wonder if missing others too. @katnisscinnaplex would have helped but he is busy irl

[Porthos]

33 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

I am curious as to what the next catalyst for Deadpool would be. If we assume that the review embargo is similar to IO2 and the 20th Century releases this year, and is a day or two before release, then it wouldn't make much of a difference no? Can't really think of another motivating factor.

 

Another trailer drop of some sort or another is probably the biggest bullet still in the chamber.  Some sort of buzzy TV ad another.

 

Looking back, when news broke that Taylor Swift is (allegedly) not in DP3, ticket sales spiked that day.  Was also the day of the social media embargo release of IO2, and while I made a quip about Pixar/Deadpool crossover ticket buying subsequent days (including a lower than normal halo effect from day-of IO2 sales) makes it pretty clear that it was a case of DP3 Being in the News = Oh Yeah That's Coming Out, Better Buy Tickets.

 

So along those lines, anything that drives a news cycle or two about DP3, but that might be somewhat out of the hands of the marketing division of Disney.

 

Edited Tuesday at 07:07 PM by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

If they want to get more desparate their next trailer will have more spoilers. Remember even for Dr Strange 2 their final trailer was spoilerish on who would be appearing. if the pace and final projections are not good enough I expect them to do something similar. 

[TheFlatLannister]

6 hours ago, M37 said:

I agree with the underlying premise here, in that there should be some caution in presuming this particular film will behave in sale patterns like a typical CMB, specifically the MCU.  And while I don't disagree the there will probably be some level of GA-action draw that a typical MCU saga film won't have, the catch-22 is that the R rating is going to limit family and teen attendance, generally two of the most late buying audience, as well as skewing more male, which impacts the when of sales patterns

 

Couple that audience nuance with the extremely long pre-sale period, and I'm hesitant to swallow those current MCU comps pointing to $30M+. My expectation is that the U-curve is going to bottom out here far more than usual, those comps value will fall, but we'll see a stronger last week/GA surge to compensate, while also probably more concentrated in major metros, PLFs, and with higher ATP. Frankly, much more akin to a DC film like Batman than BPWF or Thor L&T. 

  Hide contents

I don't have numbers for it, but I distinctly recall being a bit underwhelmed by Deadpool 2's Thursday and OW, and the IM of 6.75x was barely ahead of Infinity War's 6.61x three weeks prior, at half the volume.

 

My current ballpark expectation is for a high $20Ms Thursday preview (but ask me again when we get to T-21 or T-14). Still clearly #2 for summer and the year (to that point), but not in any way making a run at Lion King's July OW record 

Idk I think this clears $30M preview with ease

 

$20Ms just feels way too low for the start it had (I haven’t checked my data recently but it was well above anything I’ve ever tracked) 

[kayumanggi]

 

[keysersoze123]

26 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Idk I think this clears $30M preview with ease

 

$20Ms just feels way too low for the start it had (I haven’t checked my data recently but it was well above anything I’ve ever tracked) 

Define "with ease". If you are talking Dr Strange 2 levels, I am willing to bet that aint happening. Tomorrow comps with DS2 will come online you will see how far back it is even with eternity of presales vs 1 day for DS2. 

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Define "with ease". If you are talking Dr Strange 2 levels, I am willing to bet that aint happening. Tomorrow comps with DS2 will come online you will see how far back it is even with eternity of presales vs 1 day for DS2. 

 

This is where DP3 is at relative to D1 of DS2 as of last night:

 

%

Sold T-31

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

MoM D1

81.78

6749

6749

0/329

34167/40916

16.49%

21117

26.14%

29.44m

 

If we add another 80 tickets or so over the next couple of days, the comp rises to 29.9m, more or less.  This is, of course, without any sort of ATP adjustment that has dominated discussion of the last couple of pages. 

 

Of course, that comp will drop in a hurry as MoM has its initial surge. Still, this will be the high water mark on a pure (unrepresentative ATP) comp until later in the pre-sale cycle.

 

 

Edited Tuesday at 08:39 PM by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

This is where DP3 is at relative to D1 of DS2 as of last night:

 

%

Sold T-31

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

MoM D1

81.78

6749

6749

0/329

34167/40916

16.49%

21117

26.14%

29.44m

 

If we add another 80 tickets or so over the next couple of days, the comp rises to 29.9m, more or less.  This is, of course, without any sort of ATP adjustment that has dominated discussion of the last couple of pages. 

 

Of course, that comp will drop in a hurry as MoM has its initial surge. Still, this will be the high water mark on a pure (unrepresentative ATP) comp until later in the pre-sale cycle.

 

 

That is why I said its not ok to thing that it will cross 30m with ease. It will be if you compare Deadpool with Marvels or Dune or something other movie which makes zero sense. Only good comps for Deadpool are their 2022 movies as their previews would be similar to Deadpool. Until we see Deadpool rise against those comps nothing is off the table. Even sub 30m previews though I am not predicting that. The fact that MCU movie is come up after a long break is a plus for this movie. 

 

Edit: for trackers who were not doing in 2022, one option is to comp Deadpool against Barbie+Oppenheimer. Combined preview number is a good target. It wont be easy as final 2 weeks of acceleration for those 2 were beyond phenomenal. Barbie T-7 was accelerating faster than Thor. It ran out of prime time capacity by release date. 

Edited Tuesday at 08:50 PM by keysersoze123

[Tinalera]

4 hours ago, vafrow said:

With respect to D&W, does anyone feel they're staying pretty quiet with marketing. There was lots of attention at the start of the sales cycle, but not much since.

 

Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals was on last night with a chance for a Canadian team to break the 31 year winless streak. It's likely the highest television audience we'll see this year. Deadpool falls pretty firmly in the demographic that's the core audience watching.

 

I saw some digital board adverts, but no commercial spots. I was at a bar, so I wasn't focused on it but reflected on it this morning.

My main media in the internet, and I admit Im not seeing a huge amount of D and W recently. Wonder if they are giving a bit of a "breathing space" as far promotion for whatever reason. I expect from Canada Day onward we might see a pickup again as we get into sub-T-30 days. Id be curious to see if they're promoting during Jays baseball, but with the team...ahem...having a touch of underachieving so far this year, be curious if the viewership numbers are such they dont want to (I dont know just throwing ideas at the wall). 

Funny enough I saw more of Inside Out 2 and even Minions ads than I have for D/W recently.

[Tinalera]

Was going to look at Twisters for Vancouver/Alberta...

 

Yea.....llike a ghost town.

 

May wait till into July to track.

[rehpyc]

Will be jumping back in the ring with Deadpool numbers closer to release.

[Joyous Legion]

6 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

How's Deadpool looking now that we're a single month out?

Very little new information compared to like, D5, still low-mid30s *5ish most likely with some up/downside if reception is particularly good vs bad

[keysersoze123]

25 minutes ago, rehpyc said:

Will be jumping back in the ring with Deadpool numbers closer to release.

Nice. it would be great to get your data for sure. Only movie worthwhile you missed was IO2. 

[Flip]

On 6/13/2024 at 3:28 PM, Flip said:

 

Deadpool 3 (T-42)

 

36 showtimes/1076 tix sold (+114) good growth for this far out.

 

1.1x Inside Out 2 T-0 [???]

1.49x Bad Boys 4 T-0 [8.31m]
29.89x Twisters T-42* [???]

 

*tbf this was D1 but still pretty funny.

 

Deadpool 3 (T-30) twelve days of sales

 

36 showtimes/1206 tix sold (+130) good growth for this far out.

 

1.23x Inside Out 2 T-0 [16m]

1.66x Bad Boys 4 T-0 [9.28m]
26.2x Twisters T-30 [???]

 

more comps should come into play around T-24 on. I think Bad Boys is the best of all these, but I don’t have that until T-12

[emoviefan]

Yeah the marketing for DP and W has been somewhat quiet but it is still 4 weeks away and it's not like the awareness levels are low or anything. I prefer this to them just shoving it down our throat. I assume after the 4th the marketing will ramp up.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/24/2024 at 6:23 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

A QUIET PLACE: DAY ONE

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
491	3470	96472	3.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

336

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

COMPS

T-3

(0.880x) of Bad Boys 4 $5.19M

(1.001x) of Apes $5.05M 

(1.561x) of Civil War $4.53M 
Comps AVG: $4.92M 

 

Looking more like it will settle around $5M previews 

FLORIDA 

A QUIET PLACE: DAY ONE

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
547	4453	109491	4.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

983

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

56

 

COMPS

T-2

(0.845x) of Bad Boys 4 $4.98M

(1.067x) of Apes $5.33M 

(0.655x) of Godzilla x Kong $6.22M 
Comps AVG: $5.51M 

 

Very good acceleration