The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Rorschach]

23 hours ago, Rorschach said:

Borderlands (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 28/1,704 (1.6% sold) [+10]

3 IMAX showings: 2/1,164 

4 2D showings: 26/540 

 

Comps:

Furiosa: $1.46M

 

Friday: 51/1,586 (3.2% sold) [+5]

2 IMAX showings: 0/776

6 2D showings: 51/810

 

Comps:

Furiosa: $4.11M

 

Thurs + Fri: 79/3,290 (2.4% sold) [+15]

 

Comps:

Furiosa: $5.38M

Borderlands (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 34/1,704 (2% sold) [+6]

3 IMAX showings: 4/1,164 

4 2D showings: 30/540 

 

Comps:

Furiosa: $1.34M

 

Friday: 67/1,586 (4.2% sold) [+16]

2 IMAX showings: 3/776

6 2D showings: 64/810

 

Comps:

Furiosa: $4.59M

 

Thurs + Fri: 101/3,290 (3.1% sold) [+15]

 

Comps:

Furiosa: $5.53M

[Rorschach]

23 hours ago, Rorschach said:

Cuckoo (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

2 Thursday showings: 8/134 (6% sold) [-3]

 

6 Friday showings: 11/402 (2.7% sold) [+5]

 

Thurs + Fri: 19/536 (3.5% sold) [+2]

 

Comps:

Watchers: $1.67M

Longlegs: $1.35M

Trap: $1.9M

Avg: $1.64M

 

 

Yeah, probably gonna fall short of Immaculate numbers.

Cuckoo (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

2 Thursday showings: 11/134 (8.2% sold) [+3]

 

Comps:

Watchers: $524k

Longlegs: $508k

Trap: $526k

Avg: $519k

 

6 Friday showings: 14/402 (3.5% sold) [+3]

 

Comps:

Watchers: $1.67M

Longlegs: $877k

Trap: $792k

Avg: $1.11M

 

Thurs + Fri: 25/536 (4.7% sold) [+6]

 

Comps:

Watchers: $1.96M

Longlegs: $1.41M

Trap: $1.33M

Avg: $1.57M

Edited August 8 by Rorschach

[Rorschach]

23 hours ago, Rorschach said:

It Ends With Us (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

12 Thursday showings: 196/879 (22.3% sold) [+22]

 

Comp:

DP&W: $4.96M

 

18 Friday showings: 394/1,774 (22.2% sold) [+89]

 

Comp:

DP&W: $17.15M

 

Thurs + Fri: 590/2,653 (22.2% sold) [+111]

 

Comp:

DP&W: $19.94M

It Ends With Us (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

12 Thursday showings: 265/879 (30.1% sold) [+69]

 

Comp:

DP&W: $5.63M

 

18 Friday showings: 473/1,774 (26.7% sold) [+79]

 

Comp:

DP&W: $18.78M

 

Thurs + Fri: 738/2,653 (27.8% sold) [+148]

 

Comp:

DP&W: $21.75M

[abracadabra1998]

On 8/5/2024 at 8:44 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

It Ends With Us (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 23 theaters	102	280	1516	9719	15.6
Wednesday EA: 9 theaters	14	89	850	1518	55.99
TOTALS:	116	369	2366	11237	21.06

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		496	111	32.72
Other chains:		1020	169	67.28

 

Thursday comps:

0.91x Hunger Games BoSS: $5.21 Million (17 theaters)

0.22x Barbie: $4.72 Million (17 theaters)

1.89x Don't Worry Darling: $5.87 Million (12 theaters)

 

EA comps:

0.75x Unsung Hero: $900k

 

Combined THU + EA Comp:

2.08x Mean Girls (w/ EA): $6.75 Million (17 theaters)

 

Still holding back on most EA comps because the occupancy rate for this is so high, so capacity will be a real issue. Unsung Hero kinda meets that criteria too, so probably thinking a little over $1 Million for EA unless theaters add a ton of showtimes. 

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

It Ends With Us (T-1):

Day: T-1, T-1 Hour	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 24 theaters	141	1274	2790	13986	19.95
Wednesday EA: 9 theaters	21	360	1210	2096	57.73
TOTALS:	162	1634	4000	16082	24.87

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		772	276	27.67
Other chains:		2018	998	72.33

 

Thursday comps:

1.15x Hunger Games BoSS: $6.59 Million (17 theaters)

0.26x Barbie: $5.61 Million (17 theaters)

2.18x Don't Worry Darling: $6.77 Million (12 theaters)

 

EA comps:

0.73x Twisters: $1.96 Million

2.42x Fall Guy: $1.94 Million

3.5x Challengers: $1.92 Million

0.92x MI7: $1.84 Million

 

Combined THU + EA Comp:

2.14x Mean Girls (w/ EA): $6.97 Million (17 theaters)

 

With the ATP difference (all of those were PLF EA), I am thinking $1.75 Million for EA. For Thursday, again with the ATP difference, possibly something close to $6 Million, if a little under? This is just performing stellarly

[abracadabra1998]

On 8/5/2024 at 8:58 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Borderlands (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 23 theaters	90	28	235	11994	1.96

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		79	13	33.62
MTC1:		87	18	37.02
Other chains:		148	10	62.98

 

Comps:

0.42x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (THU): $2.11 Million

2.06x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $1.75 Million

0.66x Argyle: $1.12 Million (17 theaters)

0.32x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $1.42 Million (17 theaters)

0.52x Blue Beetle: $1.71 Million (17 theaters)

1.95x Expend4bles: $1.46 Million (17 theaters)

 

Still heading for around $1.5 Million it looks like.

 

Cuckoo (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	24	27	101	1671	6.04

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		82	16	81.19
Other chains:		19	11	18.81

 

Comps:

0.18x Longlegs: $545k

0.98x Abigail: $980k

1.76x Immaculate: $965k (17 theaters)

0.99x Lisa Frankenstein: $690k (17 theaters)

0.83x Thanksgiving: $835k (17 theaters)

0.64x Talk To Me: $800k (17 theaters)

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Borderlands (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	106	224	459	14049	3.27

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		165	86	35.95
MTC1:		183	96	39.87
Other chains:		276	128	60.13

 

Comps:

0.48x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (THU): $2.4 Million

2.18x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $1.85 Million

0.89x Argyle: $1.51 Million (17 theaters)

0.44x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $1.97 Million (17 theaters)

0.68x Blue Beetle: $2.23 Million (17 theaters)

2.48x Expend4bles: $1.86 Million (17 theaters)

 

Hmm not a terrible final couple of days, like @DAJK said. Maybe looking at $2 Million previews from my numbers

 

Cuckoo (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	37	80	181	2727	6.64

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		149	67	82.32
Other chains:		32	13	17.68

 

Comps:

0.17x Longlegs: $525k

0.96x Abigail: $960k

1.99x Immaculate: $1.09 Million (17 theaters)

1.28x Lisa Frankenstein: $900k (17 theaters)

0.91x Thanksgiving: $915k (17 theaters)

0.52x Talk To Me: $645k (17 theaters)

 

Maybe $600-700k looking at Talk To Me and Longlegs, the most apt comparisons.

 

Unsure if I will be able to give any T-1 Hour updates at all, TBD

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

It ends with us MTC1

Early Shows(8/7) - 31941/101262 465106.01 845 shows +5111

Previews(T-2) - 50344/382246 687125.86 3073 shows +8438

Friday - 70303/612427 945243.50 4419 shows +14725

 

So it added tons of shows including for early shows tomorrow. That does not happen for IMAX/PLF driven releases. Not sure how much walkups will be seen tomorrow. Assuming 50K ish finish, you are talking about 700K at MTC1. May be 2m will happen with strong showings across all TCs. 

 

Previews pace is ok for T-2. I am expecting it to finish in 110-120K. With the ATP we are expecting around 1.6m. I think its going to under index at MTC1. So I think 6m true previews is possible. 

 

Friday looking at 130-150K finish for presales. I think we can project the walkups from how things go tomorrow. but on friday I am hoping for upper 200s(close to 300K). So around 3.8/3.9m at MTC1 and low 20s % I am expecting TF to be around mid to high teens. 

 

Beyond Friday let us wait and watch 🙂

 

OW even with low ATP could approach 50m !!!

It ends with us MTC1

Early Shows Final - 46651/106653 679524.73 906 shows  +14710

Previews(T-1) - 64260/389344 874403.32 3131 shows + 13916

Friday - 87246/629919 1174334.83 4551 shows +16943

 

Early shows did not hit what the benchmark I had set for it(50K) but its $ finish was close. Early BO around 1.8-2m range. 

 

Previews did sell well considering early shows were so wide. I think 120K is possible. 6m thursday seems likely. 

 

Friday is now looking like 120k ish finish with presales. So probably mid teens TF than late teens.  45m ish OW. 

[Relevation]

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1)

08/08/24

It Ends With Us - 269 tickets sold

Borderlands - 32 tickets sold

Cuckoo - 17 tickets sold

 

COMPS & ANALYSIS

It Ends With Us

1.78x of Mean Girls ($5.79M)

2.14x of Civil War ($6.19M)

3.17x of Trap ($6.96M)

5.17x of Challengers ($8.28M)

AVERAGE: $6.81M

First of all, FANTASTIC showing by It Ends With Us. Consistently selling out its showings and posting the 4th best THU sales run I've ever tracked, only behind Longlegs, IO2, and Deadpool. I do get the vibe it may have over indexed, given my near $7M THU average is considerably higher than most comps, but phenomenal sales run regardless and it's gonna surprise a lot of people this weekend. $5.5-6M THU and a $54-58M OW.

 

Borderlands

0.26x of Bad Boys: Ride or Die ($1.54M)
0.26x of Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire ($1.23M)

0.27x of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga ($933K)

0.40x of The Fall Guy ($940K)

0.62x of Argylle ($1.05M)

1.08x of The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare ($918K)

AVERAGE: $1.10M

Borderlands on the other hand... sheyiks. 27% of Furiosa and not even 2/3rds of Argylle is straight pathetic in the middle of summer, no other way to put it. Disaster run, probably not going for double digits unless it pulls a Bad Boys and skyrockets at T-0 powered by the T-Mobile deal. Anyways uh, predicting $1.0-1.2M THU and an $8-10M OW.

 

Cuckoo

0.08x of Longlegs ($237K)

0.15x of Maxxxine ($476K)

1.31x of Immaculate ($719K)

AVERAGE: $477K

Honestly expected a tad better for Cuckoo given how absurdly huge the run for Longlegs was at my theaters, but that was always gonna be an impossible standard to match. Otherwise it performed like a normal underperforming horror at my theaters, but the NEON factor and given how other indie horrors have way overperformed here, gonna temper my expectations a notch. However, I do lean more towards the higher Immaculate comp just for size proximity. $600-700K THU and a $4-5M OW.

 

Btw, trying out putting the analysis with the individual movies to avoid a massive confusing block of text at the bottom. Thoughts?

 

[Ryan C]

4 minutes ago, Relevation said:

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1)

08/08/24

It Ends With Us - 269 tickets sold

Borderlands - 32 tickets sold

Cuckoo - 17 tickets sold

 

COMPS & ANALYSIS

It Ends With Us

1.78x of Mean Girls ($5.79M)

2.14x of Civil War ($6.19M)

3.17x of Trap ($6.96M)

5.17x of Challengers ($8.28M)

AVERAGE: $6.81M

First of all, FANTASTIC showing by It Ends With Us. Consistently selling out its showings and posting the 4th best THU sales run I've ever tracked, only behind Longlegs, IO2, and Deadpool. I do get the vibe it may have over indexed, given my near $7M THU average is considerably higher than most comps, but phenomenal sales run regardless and it's gonna surprise a lot of people this weekend. $5.5-6M THU and a $54-58M OW.

 

Borderlands

0.26x of Bad Boys: Ride or Die ($1.54M)
0.26x of Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire ($1.23M)

0.27x of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga ($933K)

0.40x of The Fall Guy ($940K)

0.62x of Argylle ($1.05M)

1.08x of The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare ($918K)

AVERAGE: $1.10M

Borderlands on the other hand... sheyiks. 27% of Furiosa and not even 2/3rds of Argylle is straight pathetic in the middle of summer, no other way to put it. Disaster run, probably not going for double digits unless it pulls a Bad Boys and skyrockets at T-0 powered by the T-Mobile deal. Anyways uh, predicting $1.0-1.2M THU and an $8-10M OW.

 

Cuckoo

0.08x of Longlegs ($237K)

0.15x of Maxxxine ($476K)

1.31x of Immaculate ($719K)

AVERAGE: $477K

Honestly expected a tad better for Cuckoo given how absurdly huge the run for Longlegs was at my theaters, but that was always gonna be an impossible standard to match. Otherwise it performed like a normal underperforming horror at my theaters, but the NEON factor and given how other indie horrors have way overperformed here, gonna temper my expectations a notch. However, I do lean more towards the higher Immaculate comp just for size proximity. $600-700K THU and a $4-5M OW.

 

Btw, trying out putting the analysis with the individual movies to avoid a massive confusing block of text at the bottom. Thoughts?

 

 

This is great!

 

If there's multiple movies coming out on a given weekend, keep tracking them in this kind of way. Literally no confusion when reading through this. 

[BOfficeStats]

2 hours ago, Relevation said:

Btw, trying out putting the analysis with the individual movies to avoid a massive confusing block of text at the bottom. Thoughts?

It's so much better.  

[BOfficeStats]

Has anyone looked at Usher presales?  They look dead but I don't have a good reference point.  

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Borderlands, T-2, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 37

New Sales since T-6: 19

Growth: 106%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Tickets per Showtime: 2.2

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 9/5

Early Evening: 24/6

Late Evening: 4/6

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 15/15

VIP: 9/2

 

Comps 

0.740x BB:RoD for $4.3M

1.233x KOTPOTA for $6.2M

0.587x GB:FE for $2.8M

0.092x GxK for $0.9M

 

Average: $3.5M

Note: Formula error identified for all comps. Explained in T-1 post.

 

I wanted to get an update in on this because it's doing surprisingly well. It helps that I'm comping to a set of films that all seemed to underperform here locally, so nothing should be taken too seriously, but I wanted to get this out so I can see how it does on final ramp up.

 

Borderlands, T-1, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 48

New Sales: 11

Growth: 30%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Tickets per Showtime: 2.8

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 12/5

Early Evening: 28/6

Late Evening: 8/6

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 27/15

VIP: 21/2

 

Comps 

0.216x BB:RoD for $1.3M

0.209x KOTPOTA for $1.0M

0.324x GB:FE for $1.5M

0.058x GxK for $0.6M

 

Average: $1.1M

 

Note: Formula error identified for all comps in prior posts. I never switched from D comps to T minus, so totals were being compared to comps about a week behind.

The correction brings this in line with others. I should have caught that, but was a bit distracted this week.

 

It doesn't look great, but expected for a clear August dump. My wife reached out to my teenaged neice if she wanted to see a movie, and they almost saw this. I convin them that Trap might actually be more fun.

[vafrow]

On 8/5/2024 at 7:46 AM, vafrow said:

 

Alien Romulus, Thursday Previews, T-11, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 113

New Sales since T-13: 8

Growth: 8%

Theatres tracked: MTC4 

Theatres: 2

Showtimes: 7

Radius: 19km

Tickets per Showtime: 16.1

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Tickets per showtime 

Late Afternoon: 11/1

Early Evening: 77/3

Late Evening: 25/3

 

Tickets by Format:

VIP: 52/4

IMAX: 61/3

 

Comps

1.662x AQP:D1 for $11.3M

2.216x KOTPOTA for $11.1M

2.511x Furiosa for $8.8M

3.139x BB:RoD for $18.4M

 

Average: $13.6M

 

It's trended down pretty quickly, bringing the numbers back down to earth. Perhaps speaking to the front loadedness. But also, the added showtimes coming Tuesday night will positively impact it.

 

Alien Romulus, Thursday Previews, T-8, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 142

New Sales since T-112: 29

Growth: 26%

Theatres tracked: MTC4 

Theatres: 4

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19km

Tickets per Showtime: 7.9

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Tickets per showtime 

Late Afternoon: 13/6

Early Evening: 95/6

Late Evening: 34/6

 

Tickets by Format:

Regular: 2/3

Dolby: 0/3

VIP: 59/6

IMAX: 81/6

 

Comps

1.291x AQP:D1 for $8.8M

2.029x KOTPOTA for $10.1M

1.919x Furiosa for $6.7M

2.840x BB:RoD for $16.7M

 

Average: $11.9M

 

New showtimes were added this week. Given the strong demand with just two locations initially, so I assumed demand would continue with new locations, but it hasn't materialized. This is showing to be front loaded, and comps are showing that.

 

It's bringing the comp down, but still showing a strong number. But, I can definitely see this landing around $7-8M where others have it.

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, D2 T-30, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 13

New Sales: 11

Growth: 550%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 23

Tickets per Showtime: 0.6

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Wednesday EA Shows

EA Showtimes: 5

EA Theatres: 5

EA Sales: 14

New sales: 4

Growth: 40%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/6

Early Evening: 11/8

Late Evening: 2/9

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 4/6

VIP: 9/8

IMAX: 0/6

4DX: 0/3

 

Comps (preview to preview)

1.182x AQP:D1 for $8.0M

0.765x BB:RoD for $4.5M

 

Comps (combined EA and previews)

6.750x Fall Guy for $21.3M

3.857x Twisters for $41.3M

2.455x AQP:D1 for $16.7

1.588x BB:RoD for $9.3M

Average: $22.1M

 

It seems second day was better, due to Monday being a holiday.

 

It also seems like Twisters and Fall Guy won't be much help as a comp despite similar EA strategy and long sales window. B² is already at their respective T-14 preview numbers.

 

I threw in Bad Boys and AQP. Neither are great comps, but windows were on the longer side. And I still don't know how to deal with EA shows so universal in my sample that it's in effect serving as opening day, so I'll track comps against both preview to previews, and rolling up the EA shows into the Beetlejuice figure. I believe Bad Boys had previews, but limited, and none in my sample.

 

I did look at using GxK, and if I did as a D2 number, Beetlejuice wouldn't compare well based on sales,but it was a short window, so I excluded, but it will probably serve as a good comp down the stretch.

 

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, D3 T-29, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 22

New Sales: 9

Growth: 69%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 23

Tickets per Showtime: 1.0

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Wednesday EA Shows

EA Showtimes: 5

EA Theatres: 5

EA Sales: 20

New sales: 6

Growth: 43%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/6

Early Evening: 20/8

Late Evening: 2/9

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 4/6

VIP: 18/8

IMAX: 0/6

4DX: 0/3

 

Comps (preview to preview)

2.444x AQP:D1 for $16.6M

1.294x BB:RoD for $7.6M

0.880x GB:FE for $4.1M

Average: $9.3M

 

Comps (combined EA and previews)

10.500x Fall Guy for $33.1M

3.500x Twisters for $37.5M

4.667x AQP:D1 for $31.7

2.471x BB:RoD for $14.5M

1.680x GB:FE for $7.9M

Average: $24.9M

 

Strong start continues. I've added Ghostbusters, which is a good fan driven property that was front loaded. Even then, it's a T-21 start though, so, it's got issues.

 

Also worth noting that sales have tipped toward Thursday previews versus EA. Both Twisters and Fall Guy were the opposite until close to release date. I'm not sure what to read into that but will be interesting to watch.

[justnumbers]

6 hours ago, Relevation said:

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1)

08/08/24

It Ends With Us - 269 tickets sold

Borderlands - 32 tickets sold

Cuckoo - 17 tickets sold

 

COMPS & ANALYSIS

It Ends With Us

1.78x of Mean Girls ($5.79M)

2.14x of Civil War ($6.19M)

3.17x of Trap ($6.96M)

5.17x of Challengers ($8.28M)

AVERAGE: $6.81M

First of all, FANTASTIC showing by It Ends With Us. Consistently selling out its showings and posting the 4th best THU sales run I've ever tracked, only behind Longlegs, IO2, and Deadpool. I do get the vibe it may have over indexed, given my near $7M THU average is considerably higher than most comps, but phenomenal sales run regardless and it's gonna surprise a lot of people this weekend. $5.5-6M THU and a $54-58M OW.

 

Borderlands

0.26x of Bad Boys: Ride or Die ($1.54M)
0.26x of Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire ($1.23M)

0.27x of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga ($933K)

0.40x of The Fall Guy ($940K)

0.62x of Argylle ($1.05M)

1.08x of The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare ($918K)

AVERAGE: $1.10M

Borderlands on the other hand... sheyiks. 27% of Furiosa and not even 2/3rds of Argylle is straight pathetic in the middle of summer, no other way to put it. Disaster run, probably not going for double digits unless it pulls a Bad Boys and skyrockets at T-0 powered by the T-Mobile deal. Anyways uh, predicting $1.0-1.2M THU and an $8-10M OW.

 

Cuckoo

0.08x of Longlegs ($237K)

0.15x of Maxxxine ($476K)

1.31x of Immaculate ($719K)

AVERAGE: $477K

Honestly expected a tad better for Cuckoo given how absurdly huge the run for Longlegs was at my theaters, but that was always gonna be an impossible standard to match. Otherwise it performed like a normal underperforming horror at my theaters, but the NEON factor and given how other indie horrors have way overperformed here, gonna temper my expectations a notch. However, I do lean more towards the higher Immaculate comp just for size proximity. $600-700K THU and a $4-5M OW.

 

Btw, trying out putting the analysis with the individual movies to avoid a massive confusing block of text at the bottom. Thoughts?

 

Love it this way. Great job.

[filmlover]

With Wolfs cancelling its wide theatrical release despite an advertised IMAX release it seems safe to assume Transformers will be getting IMAX/PLF screens all day for that week now. Should be able to reach whatever its maximum potential is.

[keysersoze123]

20 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

It ends with us MTC2

Early Shows - 18739/37978 254397.16 366 shows +2892

Previews(T-2) - 42749/278556 541922.67 2643 shows +9021

Friday - 54925/416715 643160.84 3567 shows

 

Friday run started morning yesterday. I think its  doing well here for sure. I definitely think its finishing above 100K here for thursday previews. 

It ends with us MTC2

Early Shows final - 25574/45421 346465.36 440 shows +7835 

Previews(T-1) - 55166/293325 699356.12 2795 shows +12417

Friday - 67062/470976 786065.03 4065 shows +12137

 

Friday run started morning yesterday. I think yesterday went well here as well.

[VanillaSkies]

I have to ask this;

 

With 24 reviews so far, Borderlands sits at 0% RT score. Definitely going to be one of the worst reviewed 3000+ theatre launches in a while. 
 

What are the thoughts on how this affects Things? Are fans of the IP in it regardless? Will sales plummet over the weekend? Will it actually cause more people to go check it out just to see how bad it is (it’s so bad it’s good!).

[emoviefan]

8 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

I have to ask this;

 

With 24 reviews so far, Borderlands sits at 0% RT score. Definitely going to be one of the worst reviewed 3000+ theatre launches in a while. 
 

What are the thoughts on how this affects Things? Are fans of the IP in it regardless? Will sales plummet over the weekend? Will it actually cause more people to go check it out just to see how bad it is (it’s so bad it’s good!).

I honestly do not understand the so bad it's good thing with people.  The movie is at 0%. If it was so bad it's good it would show up in the reviews. it's just bad and a complete botch job/clusterfuck most likely. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Alien Romulus	T-8	Jax	5	39	38	317	7,073	4.48%
		Phx	7	32	32	302	5,961	5.07%
		Ral	8	39	12	179	5,541	3.23%
	Total		20	110	82	798	18,575	4.30%
Borderlands	T-1	Jax	5	37	41	159	4,992	3.19%
		Phx	7	31	27	142	4,698	3.02%
		Ral	8	33	20	94	2,820	3.33%
	Total		20	101	88	395	12,510	3.16%
Cuckoo	T-1	Jax	5	10	9	35	634	5.52%
		Phx	6	12	10	53	1,056	5.02%
		Ral	6	12	2	29	710	4.08%
	Total		17	34	21	117	2,400	4.88%
It Ends With Us	T-1	Jax	5	45	70	473	4,586	10.31%
		Phx	6	56	126	505	6,005	8.41%
		Ral	7	53	128	801	4,717	16.98%
	Total		18	154	324	1,779	15,308	11.62%
It Ends With Us (EA)	T-0	Jax	3	11	86	564	1,261	44.73%
		Phx	3	6	32	225	750	30.00%
		Ral	3	8	55	312	608	51.32%
	Total		9	25	173	1,101	2,619	42.04%

 

It Ends With Us (EA) T-0 adjusted comps

 - Batman (EA Total) - .493x (1.94m)

 - Top Gun 2 (EA Total) - .589x (2.66m)

 - Twisters (EA) - 1.486x (3.85m)

 - Unsung Hero (EA) - 1.325x (1.84m)

 - Ungentlemanly (EA) - 2.37x (1.65m)

 - Turtles (EA) - 1.048x (1.83m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (EA) - 2.5x (3.84m)

 

Even more shows added!  Sticking with 2m for EA.

 

It Ends With Us (Thu) T-1 adjusted comps

 - Crawdads (Thu) -2.513x (5.14m)

 - Creed III (Thu) - 2.04x (7.44m)

 - Elvis (Thu) - 2.07x (5.69m)

 - Death on the Nile (Thu) - 7.145x (6.6m)

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - 2.4x (6.75m)

 

Not much change from yesterday.  Still thinking around 6m Thu + 2m EA.  A word of caution though that this could come in under depending on how frontloaded this is.

 

Borderlands T-1 adjusted comps

 - Uncharted - .423x (1.6m)

 - Free Guy - .978x (2.23m)

 - Fall Guy (Total) - .79x (2.49m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .395x (1.86m)

 - Furiosa - missed

 - Dune - .224x (1.19m)

 - Turtles (Total) - .221x (1.31m)

 - Meg 2 - .86x (2.93m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .945x (1.97m)

 

Size adjusted average - 2.49m

 

Officially dropping my forecast to 1.75m.  Best sales are at Dolby theaters which will help ATP.

 

Cuckoo T-1 adjusted comps

 - Men - .907x (393k)

 - Candyman - .398x (673k)

 - First Omen - 1.828x (1.11m)

 - Talk to Me - .476x (592k)

 - Abigail - .992x (833k)

 - The Strangers - .56x (564k)

 

Size adjusted average - 724k

 

Alien Romulus T-8 adjusted comps

 - Scream VI - 1x (6.06m)

 - Nope - 1.61x (10.56m)

 - Halloween Ends - 1.932x (10.68m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Borderlands	T-0	Jax	5	37	59	218	4,992	4.37%
		Phx	7	31	50	192	4,698	4.09%
		Ral	8	33	42	136	2,820	4.82%
	Total		20	101	151	546	12,510	4.36%
Cuckoo	T-0	Jax	5	10	32	67	634	10.57%
		Phx	6	12	35	88	1,056	8.33%
		Ral	6	12	7	36	710	5.07%
	Total		17	34	74	191	2,400	7.96%
It Ends With Us	T-0	Jax	5	45	177	650	4,586	14.17%
		Phx	6	58	176	681	6,121	11.13%
		Ral	7	54	186	987	4,835	20.41%
	Total		18	157	539	2,318	15,542	14.91%

 

It Ends With Us (Thu) T-0 adjusted comps

 - Crawdads (Thu) -2.4x (4.91m)

 - Creed III (Thu) - 1.794x (6.55m)

 - Elvis (Thu) - 2.01x (5.53m)

 - Death on the Nile (Thu) - 6.86x (6.33m)

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - 2.22x (6.24m)

 

Size adjusted average - 5.63m

Growth model forecast - 5.83m

 

Closing in on 6m still.  Big storm hitting east coast right now so that may affect things.  

 

Borderlands T-0 adjusted comps

 - Uncharted - .434x (1.64m)

 - Free Guy - .953x (2.18m)

 - Fall Guy (Thu) - 1.14x (2.68m)

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - .523x (1.79m)

 - Furiosa - missed

 - Dune - .247x (1.31m)

 - Turtles (Thu) - .48x (1.96m)

 - Meg 2 - .81x (2.75m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .921x (1.92m)

 

Size adjusted average - 2.41m

Growth model forecast - 1.81m

 

2m not out of the picture.  Still thinking slightly below at 1.9m

 

Cuckoo T-0 adjusted comps

 - Men - 1.265x (548k)

 - Candyman - .369x (625k)

 - First Omen - 1.785x (1.09m)

 - Talk to Me - .499x (621k)

 - Abigail - .955x (802k)

 - The Strangers - .546x (550k)

 

Size adjusted average - 732k

Growth model forecast - 623k

 

Initial prediction is 650k

[TheFlatLannister]

12 hours ago, VanillaSkies said:

I would think the fact that so many Wednesday EA extra showings were added would have contributed to Thursday numbers being depressed. Some popular AMC’s had as many as 6-8 showing tonight. I know that’s not everywhere, but almost all had at least 2-3 shows minimum which is certainly is enough to make some difference.

it certainly does have a lot of EA, way more than i'm used to seeing