Weekdays Thread: Barbie $9.1M MON | $9.6M TUES

[Noctis]

Barbie's $9.1m is hugely impressive. It'll be at TDK's numbers by the end of the weekend and some seem to think it's not locked to hit $600m? It'll be at $575m-$580m by August 20th. By Labor Day weekend, it will be well past $600m.

[Cheddar Please]

2 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

Some very quick and crude math suggests Barbie hitting $600M around Sunday, August 27, give or take a couple of days. Of course a stronger than usual hold this weekend due to no new competition could speed up that milestone. Again, I rushed the math and used easy estimates so please bring better ones if you have them handy.

That would only be 2 days behind Jurassic World, with Labor Day weekend only a week away  @Brainbug 

[Cheddar Please]

4 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

Some very quick and crude math suggests Barbie hitting $600M around Sunday, August 27, give or take a couple of days. Of course a stronger than usual hold this weekend due to no new competition could speed up that milestone. Again, I rushed the math and used easy estimates so please bring better ones if you have them handy.

Also, would you mind posting a table of your expected weekday weekend grosses? I'd definitely like to take a look at them

[MovieMan89]

As I said over the weekend, Barbie not hitting 650 will be very surprising at this point. 700 is what I’m interested in seeing. 

[Cheddar Please]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

As I said over the weekend, Barbie not hitting 650 will be very surprising at this point. 700 is what I’m interested in seeing. 

So far it's more or less been pacing identically to Black panther through the last 15 days (306.5m for Barbie and 304.4m for Black Panther), but keep in mind Black Panther had consistent drops in the low 30% range for the next 7 weeks, so on top of having to match that Barbie would need to make up the 40m deficit that Black Panther has over it's OW to hit 700m, which seems almost insurmountable unless it starts displaying TGM legs in the next few weeks.

[reddevil19]

52 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Oppy at 4.75mil slightly up from the 4mil on Page 1

I was definitely expecting a few digits past that 4, but another 3/4 of a million is damn impressive. Great hold.

Hopefully tomorrow there's no panic if the Tuesday numbers aren't equally insane for it and Barbara.

[Cheddar Please]

2 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

I was definitely expecting a few digits past that 4, but another 3/4 of a million is damn impressive. Great hold.

Hopefully tomorrow there's no panic if the Tuesday numbers aren't equally insane for it and Barbara.

More like further proof that ERC is a non credible source 

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

So far it's more or less been pacing identically to Black panther through the last 15 days (306.5m for Barbie and 304.4m for Black Panther), but keep in mind Black Panther had consistent drops in the low 30% range for the next 7 weeks, so on top of having to match that Barbie would need to make up the 40m deficit that Black Panther has over it's OW to hit 700m, which seems almost insurmountable unless it starts displaying TGM legs in the next few weeks.

I won’t be shocked at some TGM holds coming up. We’re entering wasteland territory for new releases. Blue Beetle being a huge shocker breakout would be about all I can see deflating Barbie at all from crazy holds. But I also get the feeling an A2 situation is likely and it ends up missing within 20m or something. 

Edited August 8, 2023 by MovieMan89

[Cheddar Please]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I won’t be shocked at some TGM holds coming up. We’re entering wasteland territory for new releases. Blue Beetle being a huge shocker breakout would be about all I can see deflating Barbie at all from crazy holds. But I also get the feeling an A2 situation is likely and it ends up missing within 20m or something. 

Yeah I think aiming for Titanic, AIW, or A2 would be more interesting comparison assuming its on pace to pass 650m once we know more definitively where Barbie is headed exactly 

Edited August 8, 2023 by Cheddar Please

[MovieMan89]

We also have the possibility of a 2024 re-release for Barbie if things get serious for its major Oscar chances… 

Edited August 8, 2023 by MovieMan89

[Brainbug]

28 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

That would only be 2 days behind Jurassic World, with Labor Day weekend only a week away  @Brainbug 

 

I kind of get the feeling youre all celebrating my crisis in this thread ☹️

[abracadabra1998]

That's a great Barbie number of course, but to me Oppy's is even more impressive. It's been more of weekend movie for natural reasons, so a 31% drop is awesome. The only question mark that remains with it is how it'll react when it finally loses IMAX to Gran Turismo  (EDIT: Blue Beetle, got my mid August releases mixed up LOL)

Edited August 8, 2023 by abracadabra1998

[redfirebird2008]

12 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

That's a great Barbie number of course, but to me Oppy's is even more impressive. It's been more of weekend movie for natural reasons, so a 31% drop is awesome. The only question mark that remains with it is how it'll react when it finally loses IMAX to Gran Turismo

 

The main thing to me is that Oppy is now ahead of TDKR in daily gross. It only needs 74% of TDKR's daily gross the rest of the way to reach $300 million. This seems very doable. I dare say it's LOCKED to happen. Would be shocking if it's not able to get there based on the trends so far. 

Edited August 8, 2023 by redfirebird2008

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/sound-of-freedom-angel-studios-pay-it-forward-1235550898/

 

Very interesting article into SoF's Pay It Forward method, not sure if it was posted here already or in the last weekend thread but it's worth a read. I'll summarise some points that I found noteworthy

 

• One major legacy movie studio was so interested in the topic that it commissioned a survey of social media discourse and audience reaction.
• But how money is used from unredeemed tickets is at the company’s discretion, according to this standard disclaimer on the website: “Upon submitting my Pay It Forward contribution, I acknowledge and agree that Angel Studios will make reasonable efforts to use Pay It Forward ticket sales for the audience growth of the intended film or series. However, Angel Studios becomes the owner of all funds upon receipt and may use them at its sole discretion to further the Angel Studios’ mission of amplifying light through impactful stories.” 
• According to Angel’s website, more than 14.5 million tickets have been purchased in North America. But Geesey declined to say how many fall in the donated category except to suggest it isn’t an overwhelming number. “The vast majority of tickets are being bought by human, everyday people in a normal purchase flow,” Geesey tells THR. “We do not break out Pay It Forward tickets versus regular tickets because they’re the same thing. A ticket is a ticket whether you paid for it or someone else paid for it.” He does, however, reveal that only redeemed tickets are counted when reporting grosses to Comscore, the industry record-keeper of box office grosses.
• Many in Hollywood continue to be skeptical. “There should be more transparency,” says a studio distribution executive source. In addition to the issue of grosses, it’s hard to know how many people are actually watching the movie if we don’t know the number of tickets redeemed.” Earlier in the movie’s run, social media was rife with posts about near-empty auditoriums for supposedly sold-out shows, prompting numerous outlets to report on the issue. Such reports have since abated. Another studio executive tells THR that one major theater circuit confirmed this did happen earlier on in some instances, but not on a blanket scale.
• Distributors and theater owners are more than intrigued by the potential of a Pay It Forward model, considering the precarious nature of the box office recovery. Indie distributor Magnolia Pictures is already copying Angel’s playbook, and urging those interested in the indie documentary Kokomo City to donate tickets. The doc, about four Black transgender sex workers, opened at the IFC Center in New York City over July 28-30 weekend before expanding to several other cities this past weekend, including San Francisco. For now, donated tickets can only be redeemed at the IFC Center and San Francisco’s Roxie Theater (the offer is expected to remain in place for the film’s full run).

Edited August 8, 2023 by IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/sound-of-freedom-angel-studios-pay-it-forward-1235550898/

 

Very interesting article into SoF's Pay It Forward method, not sure if it was posted here already or in the last weekend thread but it's worth a read. I'll summarise some points that I found noteworthy

 

•  
• Distributors and theater owners are more than intrigued by the potential of a Pay It Forward model, considering the precarious nature of the box office recovery. Indie distributor Magnolia Pictures is already copying Angel’s playbook, and urging those interested in the indie documentary Kokomo City to donate tickets. The doc, about four Black transgender sex workers, opened at the IFC Center in New York City over July 28-30 weekend before expanding to several other cities this past weekend, including San Francisco. For now, donated tickets can only be redeemed at the IFC Center and San Francisco’s Roxie Theater (the offer is expected to remain in place for the film’s full run).

 

This could really get the indie ball rolling.  I like to see further experimentation by more small studios with small budget movies!

[abracadabra1998]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Distributors and theater owners are more than intrigued by the potential of a Pay It Forward model, considering the precarious nature of the box office recovery. Indie distributor Magnolia Pictures is already copying Angel’s playbook, and urging those interested in the indie documentary Kokomo City to donate tickets. The doc, about four Black transgender sex workers, opened at the IFC Center in New York City over July 28-30 weekend before expanding to several other cities this past weekend, including San Francisco. For now, donated tickets can only be redeemed at the IFC Center and San Francisco’s Roxie Theater (the offer is expected to remain in place for the film’s full run).

 

That is a rather interesting last point, and I do think we will see that strategy being used more often, but only in certain "politicized" contexts (I put that in quotes because I don't think the experiences of trans Black sex workers is anything political, but this country is what is is and those experiences are certainly politicized. That's all I'll say because this isn't the place to discuss that). The pay-it-forward strategy worked because Angel used it in a way that made a lot of its audience think "this is a very important story that other people have to know about", and I can certainly see it being used in both non-fiction and fiction biopic/true story movies in the future that can take advantage of that kind of thought. 

[Mango]

17 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

The main thing to me is that Oppy is now ahead of TDKR in daily gross. It only needs 74% of TDKR's daily gross the rest of the way to reach $300 million. This seems very doable. I dare say it's LOCKED to happen. Would be shocking if it's not able to get there based on the trends so far. 

I think it’s basically locked. By the end of the coming weekend we should be in the vicinity of $260m off a $16-18m weekend. I can’t see it missing it from there. GT and BB seem like they’ll be sacrificing IMAX showtimes in favor of more Oppenheimer within their opening weeks tbh. A lot (maybe all) of the 70mm venues have already extended Oppenheimers run through the rest of the month and won’t be screening them at all.

[LonePirate]

38 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

Also, would you mind posting a table of your expected weekday weekend grosses? I'd definitely like to take a look at them

Again, the math is very rough here:

 

$468.5M through Monday, August 7

$26.5M ($495M) 8/8 - 8/10

$35M ($530M) 8/11 - 8/13

$20M ($550M) 8/14 - 8/17

$25M ($575M) 8/18 - 8/20

$12M ($587M) 8/21 - 8/24

$15M ($602M) 8/25 - 8/27

 

I think the next couple of weekends are going to see small drops. I might be too optimistic on the weekends and too pessimistic on the weekdays; but there is a little wiggle room for Barbie to hit $600M by the 27th.

[MovieMan89]

If Barbie were to end between 650-700, then it seems Opp would be between 325-350 given their extremely consistent 50% after each weekend relationship so far. 

Edited August 8, 2023 by MovieMan89

[MovieMan89]

Very high chance for Barbie to beat A2 DOM admissions. I imagine it would probably happen around 650m? Also wonder what point it would beat TGM’s? Surely lower than gross since TGM was a huge IMAX/PLF event.