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Bob Train

FNAF Weekend Thread (10/27-10/29) | $80m Opening Weekend | Blumhouse's Biggest Opener Ever | $14.7m The Eras Tour | $9.3m KOTFM

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Honestly if it weren't for Peacock, think FNAF would be an easy 100m opener. Knew it would open big but Peacock would eat a bit into it. Taking my younger cousin to see it tomorrow.

 

As for quality, I'm excited for it as never was expecting a good movie on FNAF but rather the fun would be from the experience. Video game movies are now the new Disney nostalgic remakes in that they have two bases to cater to fans and kids. Do those things and be relevant you succeed, being a good movie will always come second.

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Five Nights At Freddy's performance is fantastic and great news for theaters. Admittedly from my perspective I don't know that it could have possibly happen to a less deserving film (maybe Minions, Burton's Alice and the Lion King remake, but those ones' undeserved successes were even more slam dunks than this).

 

Its sheer tedium is perhaps what surprises me most. I thought 'fun' would be the bare minimum. But nope, enough folks are eating it up that there's a megahit going. And bad films doing very well is better than no films doing very well.

 

Speaking of horrendous horror films, Exorcist seems to have comfortably justified its budget, even if it has far from justified the money for the rights. Very surprised by this one's relatively decent performance. Names are still bigger than quality, it seems.

 

Taylor Swift still crushing it. It wish I'd contributed instead of wasting my time on the above two films.

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2 hours ago, John Marston said:

Count me as someone who never even heard of Five Nights at Freddy’s until this trailer dropped. I’m 32 and and thought I was fairly well versed in pop culture 


Welcome to the old people club. I’m turning 38 pretty soon and don’t understand a lot of elements in pop culture these days, lol

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1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

It's also the skew of where the data comes from.  As I've mentioned previously, Posttrak data will always skew to higher ethnic movie goer percents b/c Postrak takes all its info from city locations.  No one is going to the middle of Idaho to poll anyone.  So, the value of the ethnic demo is less the PRECISE breakdown, and more the breakdown vs other movies, to see who is getting drawn to what.

 

In this case, I think FNAF is playing straight young movie goer demo nationwide with very little skew to one ethnicity b/c this breakdown would be about the city type breakdown you might get from those Posttrak city sites.  If Posttrak ever exactly revealed them, we'd know for certain if it matches, but it's gonna be close...

 

Yeah, one thing that's apparent is just how baselines don't add up and I'm not sure how to reconcile. I see 3 separate sources that have historically been vaguely easy to track - MPA survey data (in theme reports), posttrak data (specific films since 2017 are frequently found in weekend wrapup articles and aggregate data in MPAA theme reports) and various movio anecdotes. 

 

Movio said something about demo shifts in a piece this year and spot checking posttrak theme reports from 2017 and 2021 show a change from ~53% caucasian to 45% in 2021 (unfortunately there was no 2022 MPA theme report to publish aggregate posttrak stats) though perhaps that's a pandemic age effect thing. Alternatively, MPA's survey data showed 57% versus 55% Caucasian in the same reports. 

 

I really do think there's been a change from within posttrak specific polling. 

 

The "2022 national cinema foundation report" (this has seemingly replaced THEME reports) claimed comscore sees 68% caucasian moviegoing audiences in general for 2022. It's hard to get a "true baseline" when you've got claims 20 percentage points different. 

I suspect a small part of this is how strongly you push people out of "other." Based on those theme reports, it seems like posttrak just accepts any sort of pushback on classification (the example they use being a person who identifies as both caucasian and hispanic) as an "other" classification while Comscore's sub 1% "other" (which in that scenario includes American-Indians) implies they're trying to have a very skinny definition. I see topline numbers saying posttrak's "% other" average is 3% but the raw average in my spreadsheet is roughly 4.5%. 
 

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12 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

I know this will be an unpopular opinion, but maybe people don’t want to spend 3.5 (almost 4 with previews) sitting in a theatre watching a drama. I don’t.

 

I would agree if Oppenheimer would not have just done $945m WW. Yeah that is Nolan + Barbieheimer effect but still...

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2 minutes ago, AN9815 said:

I would agree if Oppenheimer would not have just done $945m WW. Yeah that is Nolan + Barbieheimer effect but still...

KOTFM is A LOT less engaging than Oppenheimer.

 

Oppenheimer was at least fast paced, had the score, some level of spectacle and anticipation with the build up to the Nuke test, and some visionary cues on the screen to keep people engaged (fusion/fission, nuke, court room scene, I bet Japan didn’t like it!, etc).

 

KOTFM is just:

 

White people kill Osage > scence with Molly/Leo > white people kill Osage > go back to Lily/Leo > white people kill Osage > go back to Lily/Leo.

 

It’s just not that engaging.

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2 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

👏BARBIE👏SAVED👏OPPENHEIMER. End of story. If the viral movement itself didn't prove it, then Flower Moon's projected drop will. Nolan should be sending Gerwig gifts for saving his movie. I think she'd love some IMAX Oppenheimer film cells.

Awful take 

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6 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

👏BARBIE👏SAVED👏OPPENHEIMER. End of story. If the viral movement itself didn't prove it, then Flower Moon's projected drop will. Nolan should be sending Gerwig gifts for saving his movie. I think she'd love some IMAX Oppenheimer film cells.

Nah. It would have made $200m DOM ish or so even without Barbenheimer.

 

The phenomenon just added an extra $130m DOM. KOTFM is not comparable as Nolan is a way bigger draw amongst modern moviegoers than Scorcese, who has way less pull among young people.

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7 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

👏BARBIE👏SAVED👏OPPENHEIMER. End of story. If the viral movement itself didn't prove it, then Flower Moon's projected drop will. Nolan should be sending Gerwig gifts for saving his movie. I think she'd love some IMAX Oppenheimer film cells.


Oppy was gonna be plenty profitable without Barbie. Oppy’s budget was $100M instead of the $200M for Killers of the Flower Moon. 

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1 hour ago, John Marston said:

Oppenheimer is also edited at a breakneck pace and has constant loud, blaring music. Nolan knows what he is doing 

Which is why it's my pick for best picture easily over Killers. Killers really is kind of a slog to sit through. As more than a few people of said about Killers I admire it more than like it. Kind of the same way I felt about the Irishman. 

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