Weekend Thread (11/17-19) | Early Deadline #s - Songbirds 5.75-6M Previews, Trolls 2M

[Torontofan]

This film will have decent legs due to being a female driven movie and also have good WOM.

 

Will do decent next weekend and get a late boost in Xmas.

[harry713]

Wow Deadline was pretty far off with their "around 2m" for Trolls. 🫠

[filmlover]

Not sure where these $50M projections for Hunger Games are coming from? It's a prequel yes but also based on a bestselling book, therefore that fan base is bound to cause some frontloading. $40M seems like a better target IMO.

 

Will Trolls even hit $20M? The holidays are off to quite the unpromising start I must say.

[TwoMisfits]

47 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Full Update - 

 

Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak shows 4 1/2 stars and 87% positive with a 70% definite recommend. Meanwhile, the Rotten Tomatoes audience score stands at 90%. True, the faithful come out first on Thursday, but that bodes well for word of mouth, and getting the excitement out there to others over the holiday week. Parents (mostly moms at 76%) gave the movie 5 stars/94% and kids under 12 are 4 1/2 stars/81%.

 

Women showed up last night to Songbirds & Snakes at 65%, which is a tad higher than Mockingjay 2‘s 60%. The 18-34 turnout was huge at 75%. Biggest demos in descending order were women under 25 at 36%, followed by women over 25 at 28%, men over 25 at 21% and men under 25 at 14%. Girls under 12 showed up at 75% with kids overall saying that the movie is a must-see at 94%.

 

Well, we did officially find the women-drawing movie - 65/35.

Women under 25 at 36% is what The Marvels was dreaming about, but which got sniped by Hunger Games.

[John Marston]

If they want more female appearing movies why not adapt more YA books on a reasonable  budget? That genre skews female appealing

[TwoMisfits]

19 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Trolls Band Together

 

Five stars on PostTrak from general audiences and 4 1/2 stars from parents. Overall audience was 62% female, with 52% over 25, 48% under

 

Thanksgiving

 

PostTrak exits at 73% positive and 3 1/2 stars are to be expected for an R-rated genre movie that pulled in guys last night at 60%, 66% between 18-34.  

 

Next Goal Wins

 

78% positive and 4 stars with moviegoers on PostTrak.

 

It's almost a surprise that a horror movie went 60/40 male, but when the other 2 openers are big female draws over 60%, I guess it should be expected that something won't draw women yet...

[filmlover]

Just now, John Marston said:

If they want more female appearing movies why not adapt more YA books on a reasonable  budget? That genre skews female appealing

The YA genre was declared dead and buried not long after the last Hunger Games came out. Projects like that definitely lean more towards the streaming side of business these days, if there is a market for them.

[TwoMisfits]

25 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Based on the preview numbers and the Marvels Thursday number, it feels like The Marvels will be #4 for the weekend. Hunger Games around 50, Trolls around 22-25, Thanksgiving around 15 and Marvels in the 10-11 range 

 

I'm pretty sure it's certain Marvels will be no higher than #4 this weekend.

[filmlover]

$1M is an only okay start for Thanksgiving, probably $8-9M for the weekend at most. Not that it really matters in the long run since this is clearly a future cult hit in the making.

[AN9815]

I was hoping for 'The Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes' to do a bit more. I was feeling a Hunger Games comeback between my friends non-stop talking about it and my TikTok, I guess it was just my personal experience. Seeing it tomorrow.

 

I feel like something has to, at the very least, overperform otherwise what a boring end of the year to track, specially compared to previous years. 'Wish' would have been my bet but latest reviews were not particularly good. I'm also not feeling it for 'Wonka' but a lot of people that I know are so...maybe. Otherwise it's up to 'Aquaman 2' and 'Migration' and seeing how DCEU movies and comic book movies are performing this year my bet is on 'Migration'.

[martin]

Oh there's a possibility the Marvels below $10m this weekend from Thursday number.

[jeffthehat]

17 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Not sure where these $50M projections for Hunger Games are coming from? It's a prequel yes but also based on a bestselling book, therefore that fan base is bound to cause some frontloading. $40M seems like a better target IMO.

 

Will Trolls even hit $20M? The holidays are off to quite the unpromising start I must say.

 

Friday tracking has looked on par with Marvels this week. If that holds it will be ~$15m true Friday. A normal-ish +15% Fri/Sat and -35% Sat/Sun would get it there. I'm expecting more like 14m/15m/10m but don't think $50m+ is out of play.

[Arlborn]

16 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The YA genre was declared dead and buried not long after the last Hunger Games came out. Projects like that definitely lean more towards the streaming side of business these days, if there is a market for them.

 

Shadow and Bone was great on Netflix, perhaps better than the books in many parts.

 

A Discovery of Witches is another YA TV show that is miles better than the books imo

 

 

I think YA does well with TV shows.

[titanic2187]

There is a chance this HG prequel play like a semi-Where the crawdad sings in term of legs. The movie has enough action and "weird" concept to wow audience that seek for some level of novelty, most importantly, the romance element (not just sub-plot or some side quest) will play well with the core female demo, something that the marvels failed to profess as a movie that try to impress female audience. 

 

Btw, Songbirds did have similar exit score with Crawdads.

 

Quote

The 74% skewing female movie is winning over its core audience in its big screen treatment, with 4 1/2 stars, 87% positive, 70% recommend on PostTrak, and an A- CinemaScore. Those fans who showed up clearly didn’t read reviews, as critics weren’t won over by the 35% Rotten.

 

[Kon]

14 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

 

Shadow and Bone was great on Netflix, perhaps better than the books in many parts.

 

A Discovery of Witches is another YA TV show that is miles better than the books imo

 

 

I think YA does well with TV shows.

 

Um. Shadow and Bones has been cancelled after its second season by Netflix.

Edited November 17, 2023 by Kon

[Arlborn]

4 minutes ago, Kon said:

 

Um. Shadow and Bones has been cancelled after its second season by Netflix.

I am aware, just Netflix being Netflix

[Krissykins]

34 minutes ago, filmlover said:

$1M is an only okay start for Thanksgiving, probably $8-9M for the weekend at most. Not that it really matters in the long run since this is clearly a future cult hit in the making.

I think it could go over 10 with the previews starting at 7pm and it being a horror film. Slashers can be frontloaded though so we’ll see. Excellent reviews.

 

Seems like decent PostTrak results for the three main releases. 

[Bob Train]

1 hour ago, JimmyB said:

1.) The Marvels (Dis) 4,030 theaters Thu $1.2M (-31% from Wed), Wk $54.8M/Wk 1

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsar_Bomba

[BadOlCatSylvester]

That number's not great on its own for Hunger Games, but against the backdrop of trying to resurrect a dead franchise and genre and the mixed reviews, a $40M opening ain't half-bad. Especially on a comparatively modest $100M budget. The early verified audience score is an indication it's already found its audience. Hopefully it holds well in the coming weeks.

 

Trolls 3 and Thanksgiving both underperforming isn't very surprising. The former is a streaming gold rush baby in a year where they either underperformed or bombed in a marketplace very different from the one they were conceived in, and following up movies that didn't leave much of an impact on pop culture. Thanksgiving is a gory Eli Roth schlockfest, which by itself narrows down willing patrons quite a lot. Thankfully that one has a tiny $15M budget so even a paltry $10M launch will be more than enough for it. It also had solid reviews, so a cult following is inevitable.

 

The second weekend drop for The Marvels will be the biggest bombshell for this weekend. Apparently its Thursday number was below Morbius's and potentially points to a sub-$10M weekend. I would not want to be a fly in Feige's office right now.

[DAJK]

The YA genre isn’t “dead” just like the superhero genre isn’t “dead.” All that’s happened is audiences stopped showing up for them “no matter what.” Studios kept putting out bad YA movies, and being based on a book isn’t enough to be a blockbuster anymore. Same as how being a comic book movie isn’t enough to be a hit anymore.

 

If they can adapt a popular book and make a quality movie, audiences will still show up. Same as how they will still show up for a quality CBM (Spiderverse, Guardians 3).