WONKA WEEKEND THREAD | $39 million OW for WONKA | Timothee supremacy has arrived!

[MovieMan89]

The Globes snub is a big indicator TCP might not get raves, since it’s pretty easy for a big production musical like that to get into their musical/comedy category. Dreamgirls for example was not a critical darling, but still won that cat at the Globes. As I also said but was left out in my post that was quoted to make me sound like 70ish on RT is “bad” (it’s not lol), critical reception won’t matter as far as audience reception anyways.

[efialtes76]

2 hours ago, MightyDargon said:

If Purple gets crud reviews it'll have a good first week then bomb. Would be a fitting coda to a terrible year overall for WBD.

WBD will finish second at the domestic boxoffice in 2023 with $1.4B+,$0.5B more than last year...

[Brainbug]

We have seen time and time again in the past that early social media reactions - no matter for which movie, but especially for the big (wannabe) blockbusters - tend to be overly positive and not good indicators for the actual reviews. Its another marketing method for generating hype.

 

Thats why i personally dont bother with them anymore and just wait for the reviews.

[4815162342]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

I got a lot of pushback lol. But I was right

 

You got pushback on calling The Revenant a less American story than Killers of the Flower Moon which was an unequivocally false statement. You focused on your idea of an "American" story as opposed to the extremely more obvious differences between the two movies.

Edited December 18, 2023 by 4815162342

[Krissykins]

26 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

PTA remains above 1000. The terrible wide release OW really limit the celling of the movie. Clearly the movie found her audience and I would assume this to be future cult classic. 

 

I would expect AF to go at least 20m like Holdovers. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Saltburn is doing well here in the UK, £5m. Really enjoyed the film. Can’t stop thinking about it. 

[joaqs]

Welp...

[Mojoguy]

10 minutes ago, joaqs said:

Welp...

Lionsgate treating BoSS like a Marvels tier flop.

 

To be serious, this decision was made months ago before this movie even came out like the same way Mario was out on PVOD after its fifth week no matter how big it was doing.

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, Mojoguy said:

Lionsgate treating BoSS like a Marvels tier flop.

 

To be serious, this decision was made months ago before this movie even came out like the same way Mario was out on PVOD after its fifth week no matter how big it was doing.

This makes me wonder why studio decide their PVOD date before the release. There is no way the contract would be this rigid and restrict studio ability to adjust their release plan accordingly.

[Eric is Anxious]

20 minutes ago, joaqs said:

Welp...

[M37]

If one don’t understand why there is significant difference between a stand-alone 12/15 opening and a Wed 12/20 one, in the shadow of a 300 pound gorilla in TLJ, then there is nothing left to discuss 
 

Can’t just scream “holiday legs” and ignore the underlying dynamics that hold true even in December, just to be able to root for an outcome to happen

 

Wonka should be at $150-$170M by the end of its 3rd week (1/04) 

[rehpyc]

This thread as of late reminds me why I mostly stick to the tracking thread (though a bit absent in general lately).

[DAJK]

56 minutes ago, 4815162342 said:

 

You got pushback on calling The Revenant a less American story than Killers of the Flower Moon which was an unequivocally false statement. You focused on your idea of an "American" story as opposed to the extremely more obvious differences between the two movies.

Fair. What I meant was that Revenant is able to play/market itself as an action or adventure movie, whereas Killers is more of a historical drama. Both are seeped in uniquely American history, but since Revenant is more of an “action” film, Killers would be perceived as less accessible to OS audiences.

[joselowe]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

The Globes snub is a big indicator TCP might not get raves, since it’s pretty easy for a big production musical like that to get into their musical/comedy category. Dreamgirls for example was not a critical darling, but still won that cat at the Globes. As I also said but was left out in my post that was quoted to make me sound like 70ish on RT is “bad” (it’s not lol), critical reception won’t matter as far as audience reception anyways.

Wonka got GG nominations too but was also snubbed from the same category as TCP but the reviews for Wonka so far have been fairly good. Fair argument or no? 

[MovieMan89]

Just now, joselowe said:

Wonka got GG nominations too but was also snubbed from the same category as TCP but the reviews for Wonka so far have been fairly good. Fair argument or no? 

I don’t feel like they’re very comparable since TCP is aiming to be a prestige adult musical. Pretty different from Wonka. I will be surprised with over 80% for it, but great if it does it… not sure what the Globes’ issue was then 

[MovieMan89]

8 new wide releases by Xmas Day is actually insane… didn’t realize it was THAT high. Wish, Marvels, Trolls, Napoleon’s runs are over on Thursday. Hope Japan can at least survive. 

[filmlover]

Hunger Games, Trolls, etc. being released on PVOD in time for Christmas makes sense from a business perspective since their theater counts are sure to be decimated this weekend as a lot of theaters will be forced to drop them due to the high volume of new releases (their low numbers this weekend means they were playing to a lot of empty seats at this point anyway). Don't think it'll be a surprise if HG is the only November release still playing in over 1,000 theaters next Monday.

[nguyenkhoi282]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

If one don’t understand why there is significant difference between a stand-alone 12/15 opening and a Wed 12/20 one, in the shadow of a 300 pound gorilla in TLJ, then there is nothing left to discuss 
 

Can’t just scream “holiday legs” and ignore the underlying dynamics that hold true even in December, just to be able to root for an outcome to happen

 

Wonka should be at $150-$170M by the end of its 3rd week (1/04) 

The question is how much more after that.

[Bob Train]

5 hours ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

I thought you got pushback on that, though, whereas no one is pushing back on the idea that The Color Purple will do poorly outside of the US.

No one will be surprised if a movie primarily appealing to black people overindexes in the country that contains the vast majority of black moviegoers...

[Bob Train]

Chances of Color Purple getting bad reviews are near zero IMO. This is the type of movie that critics usually eat up. Just not seeing any way it gets worse RT than, say, TLM level reviews. Prob gets 85-90% RT.

[harrisonisdead]

4 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

The Globes snub is a big indicator TCP might not get raves, since it’s pretty easy for a big production musical like that to get into their musical/comedy category. Dreamgirls for example was not a critical darling, but still won that cat at the Globes. As I also said but was left out in my post that was quoted to make me sound like 70ish on RT is “bad” (it’s not lol), critical reception won’t matter as far as audience reception anyways.

I think you're kinda undoing your own argument here, because clearly even if TCP does get mixed or negative reviews, the GG snub will have been a weird anomaly regardless. Usually it'd have gotten in just by virtue of being such a prominent musical. This is a category where movies with mixed to negative reviews like The Greatest Showman and The Prom have been nominated, and even something as universally reviled as Music, which has a 7% on RT. If TCP's embargo had dropped earlier and it got a 50%, people would have still been surprised by its snub at the GGs, so reverse-engineering its omission doesn't really make for a rock solid argument in terms of where its reception will ultimately land.

 

The Golden Globes are just weird, so it's hard to read into any of their decisions. Dreamgirls winning isn't an indication that there's a low bar that guarantees any musical above it gets nominated, it's an indication that GG's decisions aren't necessarily in lockstep with critics' opinions.

Edited December 19, 2023 by harrisonisdead