Weekdays Thread | #THU - Wonka $4.21M &Heron $896K

[Brainbug]

8 minutes ago, Scubasteve716 said:

Wonka should get low 30s 4 day - deadline is going to be over 50% off on a second weekend projection. Good grief

 

I mean Deadline is known for its wonky prediction skills.

[keysersoze123]

8 hours ago, fmpro said:

This is a joke right?

Onion is as serious as a publication can be :-)

[vale9001]

18 hours ago, Krissykins said:

These Saltburn weekly holds are amazing. -28% from Sunday and only -6% down on last week. They botched the release of this film and went wide too soon. 

 

This movie is really growing up in the conversation with great legs in the markets has been released (UK, usa and Australia). Really a shame amazon didn't give it the Air treatment with a WW release on the big screen

Edited December 20, 2023 by vale9001

[titanic2187]

7 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

This movie is really growing up in the conversation with great legs in the markets has been released (UK, usa and Australia). Really a shame amazon didn't give it the Air treatment with a WW release on the big screen

Amazon went wide on this too fast. Clearly people want to talk about this movie regardless whether if they like it, Saltburn leave an impression in their head. Staggered release definitely can help this kind of passionate WOM. A more proper managed theatrical run probably would put this around 38m like the Menu last year.

[joaqs]

Saltburn is gonna explode as it hits streaming Friday.

[MattW]

Something I come back to every winter is comparing different holiday schedules to see how much of an advantage/disadvantage it can give. So a few days ago I looked at it again and took a few ratios of the holiday period compared to days before and after, and really the only hard conclusion is that the legs of the movie matter more than the holiday schedule. I suspect Christmas/NY day on Thursday is the best schedule but looking at individual movies I can’t really prove it. Christmas Eve on Sat is obviously the worst but again a movie with that schedule and good legs will do better than a movie with a good schedule and bad legs, eg rogue one and SW9. 

[MovieMan89]

Interesting… I just had a friend say they wanted to see Wonka until they just found out it’s a musical and now he won’t see it. So maybe there is something to this whole “hide musicals” marketing tactic like I kinda mentioned already 

Edited December 20, 2023 by MovieMan89

[JustWatching]

Hey, we have -1 numbers! 709k Monday (-57%), 928k Tuesday (+31%), running total $36.05 million.

[Mojoguy]

928k Tues is just a 22% drop from last week.

 

Holiday legs kicking in for -1.

[eeetooki]

31 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Interesting… I just had a friend say they wanted to see Wonka until they just found out it’s a musical and now he won’t see it. So maybe there is something to this whole “hide musicals” marketing tactic like I kinda mentioned already 

 

I have always hated the musical episodes of the TV shows I watch. I don't know why. I just don't like musicals lol

[Johnny Tran]

Wonka got the juice.  I still haven't seen it yet though and this weekend we are likely seeing 'The Iron Claw'

[Gavin Feng]

Wonka win daily box office back on 26th or so?

[JonathanMB]

3 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

Wonka win daily box office back on 26th or so?

 

If Color Purple opens above $20M on Christmas I'm guessing spillover will give it enough juice to stay #1 for at least another day. After that though I'm guessing Wonka takes back the lead (although I think Color Purple will be a strong second for the next week and a half at least).

[Agafin]

13 hours ago, MattW said:

Something I come back to every winter is comparing different holiday schedules to see how much of an advantage/disadvantage it can give. So a few days ago I looked at it again and took a few ratios of the holiday period compared to days before and after, and really the only hard conclusion is that the legs of the movie matter more than the holiday schedule. I suspect Christmas/NY day on Thursday is the best schedule but looking at individual movies I can’t really prove it. Christmas Eve on Sat is obviously the worst but again a movie with that schedule and good legs will do better than a movie with a good schedule and bad legs, eg rogue one and SW9. 

 

I've also looked at the various schedules and I agree. I honestly don't think that the holiday configuration affect the overall gross of a movie in December. It affects how and when the movie makes its money but ultimately the movie's own WOM is king. Though from my observation, I'd say christmas eve falling on sunday (like this year) is worse than on saturday since the whole weekend is deflated (whereas a saturday christmas eve is balanced out by a sunday christmas day). But then, that is more than made up by the next two days being absolutely gigantic (sometimes as big or even bigger than the three day weekend itself) so like I said, the money is still being made, just differently.

 

Internationally, the holiday configuration probably matter a little more since a lot of christian countries (and some secular ones like the UK) close their theaters entirely on X-mas so you probably don't want that day to fall on a weekend.

 

So looking globally, you probably don't want christmas eve or christmas day to fall on a weekend or close to it which makes christmas day falling on a wednesday the best imo.

[M37]

3 hours ago, Agafin said:

I've also looked at the various schedules and I agree. I honestly don't think that the holiday configuration affect the overall gross of a movie in December. It affects how and when the movie makes its money but ultimately the movie's own WOM is king. Though from my observation, I'd say christmas eve falling on sunday (like this year) is worse than on saturday since the whole weekend is deflated (whereas a saturday christmas eve is balanced out by a sunday christmas day). But then, that is more than made up by the next two days being absolutely gigantic (sometimes as big or even bigger than the three day weekend itself) so like I said, the money is still being made, just differently.

I generally agree with this sentiment, particularly the bolded part, but do think there is some gain or loss on the margins depending on how the calendar falls. Sunday Christmas is generally the weakest day and holiday period overall, Friday the strongest, with varying degrees between the two 

 

But the issue in drawing firm conclusions is that the day of Xmas also impacts the entire week or so before.  For example, a film which opens on say Fri 12/17 means its OW is against the last shopping & event weekend before Xmas, softening the numbers, creating a higher multi/apparent leggier run than the same film opening on Fri 12/15. That seemingly small 2 day shift in calendar is going to affect any ratio on both ends: lowering the baseline and backloading business, making it difficult to establish how much a variance is WOM vs calendar, with the added complication of adjusting for competition

[M37]

14 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

Wonka win daily box office back on 26th or so?

A very interesting question...

It will depend on actual Xmas numbers and ratio of course, but looking at some potential analogs, TCP off a $20M Xmas probably hits $10M every day through at least Saturday.  Even if Wonka gets double digits on Xmas day (say Poppins level, or double Showman), probably still trails through the week, with the best chance to climb back on top being Sun (NY Eve).

 

After that it gets fuzzy, could flip back and forth, or maybe Wonka stays ahead for the next week

[Issac Newton]

		Movie Title	Distributor	Gross	%YD	%LW	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days In Release
-	(-)	The Boy and the Heron	GKIDS	$1,060,000	-3%	-19%	2,325	$456	$26,508,799	13

[Grand Cine]

2 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

		Movie Title	Distributor	Gross	%YD	%LW	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days In Release
-	(-)	The Boy and the Heron	GKIDS	$1,060,000	-3%	-19%	2,325	$456	$26,508,799	13

Excellent hold , the holidays effect begins

[Issac Newton]

1

(1)

Wonka

Warner Bros.

$4,340,000

-26%

4,203

$1,033

$53,253,301

6

[Grand Cine]

Just now, Issac Newton said:

1

(1)

Wonka

Warner Bros.

$4,340,000

-26%

4,203

$1,033

$53,253,301

6

a Another good hold , it's higher than Jumanji NL ( 3,45M), ITSV ( 2,78M) . The hold is a little behind Ferdinand (-23,4%)

 

For me :

Thu : 3,9M (-10%)

Fri : 6,6M (+70%)

Sat : 7,6M (+15%)

Sun : 4,6M (-40%)

Mon : 9,5M (+110%)

 

3 Days : around 19M and a 28M 4 Days