Weekend Numbers [June 07-09, 2024] | actuals | 56.5M BAD BOYS: RIDE OR DIE | 10.0M GARFIELD | 7.8M IF | 7.0M THE WATCHERS

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

1 hour ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

Interesting, not bad, good for legs, but isn’t it strange every other Bad Boys film is an A and this is the only one with an A-?

Bad Boys 2 got an A? I would have thought it got a B+ at best (I adore the movie but it is WILD). 

[vale9001]

Decent start for Bad Boys but after the last movie made 210M final on a 60M First weekend (despite covid already impacting after 4-5 weeks) It was reasonable to expect a bigger start than the movie before ....so still says something about how the market is doing right now but a least in this case the numbers are ok seeing the budget. 

 

 

[AnthonyJPHer]

Do we think 200m is possible for this? Or is it opening too low? 60m would be better and make it a higher possibility but also wouldn’t have the huge Monday boost from MLK weekend that Bad Boys For Life had. 

[Spidey Freak]

16 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

Decent start for Bad Boys but after the last movie made 210M final on a 60M First weekend (despite covid already impacting after 4-5 weeks) It was reasonable to expect a bigger start than the movie before ....so still says something about how the market is doing right now but a least in this case the numbers are ok seeing the budget. 

 

BB3 had MLK weekend AND a multi-decade gap to benefit off nostalgia like TGM. Also the first major movie coming out in almost a month after the 2019 holidays

Edited June 8 by Spidey Freak

[emoviefan]

5 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

Do we think 200m is possible for this? Or is it opening too low? 60m would be better and make it a higher possibility but also wouldn’t have the huge Monday boost from MLK weekend that Bad Boys For Life had. 

Summer weekdays and virtually no competition for the R rated action comedy audience until DP and W. It's possible.  Hell it probably stays in the Top 5 until at least the second of July considering the light schedule and movies like Bikeriders and Horizon Part 1 not looking to break out.

[vale9001]

15 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

BB3 had MLK weekend AND a multi-decade gap to benefit off nostalgia like TGM. Also the first major movie coming out in almost a month after the 2019 holidays

 

You can say the same for Scream 5 and Scream 6 and Scream 6 was bigger than Scream 5.

The fact there is a big gap is the reason the sequel should work more like a normal sequel of a successfull novie (so a bigger opening).

After what TGM made we should expect a bigger OW for TG3 right?.

 

 

I think in a same scenario this would have get a better opening (even if with probably worst legs).

 

 

Edited June 8 by vale9001

[TomThomas]

3 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

It’s gross that Netflix is dumping Hit Man so hard they don’t even have it as their banner 

Yeah, it's kinda ridiculous producers didn't even put together a decent contract with them before dumping the movie.

[Jake Gittes]

2 hours ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

Do we think 200m is possible for this? Or is it opening too low? 60m would be better and make it a higher possibility but also wouldn’t have the huge Monday boost from MLK weekend that Bad Boys For Life had. 

 

22 Jump Street feels like a good comp (R-rated buddy action comedy with excellent WOM released in June) and that did 57/191. This summer is even lighter on competition than 2014, so Bad Boys could at least come close to that total.

[charlie Jatinder]

 will be Highest grossing film of 2061.

https://www.despicable.me/megaverse/

 

and this in 2091.

 

 

Edited June 8 by charlie Jatinder

[TwoMisfits]

10 hours ago, CJohn said:

Good to see we are all gonna pretend this is a great opening.

 

It was a smart TMobile deal - got the movies' advertising directly out to over 100M phone users for 2 weeks and then gave them a $5 ticket offer to say what the heck...helped bump this from its original ($30M or so?) tracking til the deal went live to where it will be now...

 

And folks could prebuy, so I'd expect some level of hold into the week.  The deals don't usually cause a movie to fall off immediately...probably both b/c of the cheap ticket usage AND b/c now a certain level of people have seen it and gotten it into the domestic conscience, spurring others to see it to talk about it...breaking through the noise is so hard, and this gets it done for tired, male-skewing sequels...

[Spidey Freak]

4 hours ago, vale9001 said:

 

You can say the same for Scream 5 and Scream 6 and Scream 6 was bigger than Scream 5.

The fact there is a big gap is the reason the sequel should work more like a normal sequel of a successfull novie (so a bigger opening).

After what TGM made we should expect a bigger OW for TG3 right?.

 

 

I think in a same scenario this would have get a better opening (even if with probably worst legs).

 

I don't think Scream 5 was all THAT powered by nostalgia. I mean, we saw how Scream 4 did. And Scream 6 didn't even have Neve Campbell. Also, it had the benefit of releasing AFTER Jenna Ortega broke out with Wednesday, so there was raised interest that wasn't present for Scream 5

 

TG3 could go either way TBH. A lot will come down to the actual quality of the film.

[JimmyB]

44 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

It was a smart TMobile deal - got the movies' advertising directly out to over 100M phone users for 2 weeks and then gave them a $5 ticket offer to say what the heck...helped bump this from its original ($30M or so?) tracking til the deal went live to where it will be now...

 

And folks could prebuy, so I'd expect some level of hold into the week.  The deals don't usually cause a movie to fall off immediately...probably both b/c of the cheap ticket usage AND b/c now a certain level of people have seen it and gotten it into the domestic conscience, spurring others to see it to talk about it...breaking through the noise is so hard, and this gets it done for tired, male-skewing sequels...

Initial tracking had BB4 at 51m and the trades a few a days ago had 40-50m.  30ms was a lowball Sony number.

 

The TMobile deal seems like the only thing that jumpstarts presales. I noticed social media reactions and reviews have a little or no bump in presales when they come out this year.

 

 

 

[justnumbers]

Only reason the 2020 did that well, outside of being still pre pandemic and pre streaming explosion, was the comeback narrative and novelty of it.

 

That doesn't exist anymore. It's coming back to earth. It's doing very solid business. 

[Boxofficerules]

Also Scream 5 came out when Covid cases where surging a bit and some theaters where closed and some people where still afraid to go out to the cinema.

[TwoMisfits]

46 minutes ago, JimmyB said:

Initial tracking had BB4 at 51m and the trades a few a days ago had 40-50m.  30ms was a lowball Sony number.

 

The TMobile deal seems like the only thing that jumpstarts presales. I noticed social media reactions and reviews have a little or no bump in presales when they come out this year.

 

 

 

 

I meant where all our trackers had it with real presales and trends...if you look back on the tracking thread, it was looking like the Sony number was not far off...til Tuesday...

[filmlover]

9 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

It’s gross that Netflix is dumping Hit Man so hard they don’t even have it as their banner 

Maybe they're searching for and crossing their fingers for another out of nowhere smash following the success of Baby Reindeer heh.

[filmscholar]

Well looks like the 51-55 early Tracking is looking good.  Was hoping for over 60 maybe even 65 (Which would have match BBFL) but there were some other factors.  As people mentioned, "BBFL" came 17 years after "Bad Boys II".  It was highly anticipated.  It also had the MLK Holiday weekend.   We are in a post-pandemic world so there is a little more adjustment.  Is 50 the new 100?  Well No but in this market 50 is a nice number based on what everything else is doing honestly. 

 

I was pleased with "Apes" opening because that was the 10th Film in the Saga that goes back decades.  Well "Bad Boys Ride or Die" is the 4th Film in a 30 year old Franchise.  It still generates this type of interest all these years later.   R-Rated films always have an uphill battle over PG13 since Teens can't get in as much.  I think this was a nice landing for Will to get back in the groove.  I hope "I Am Legend" sequel happens too.   Well see what today's numbers are.    The good news, Summer Weekdays and Father's day next weekend.   Overall yes it's probably going to be a down summer but there are some bright spots.  

[TomThomas]

At least it should be a good year for R rated movies.

[AnthonyJPHer]

42 minutes ago, TomThomas said:

At least it should be a good year for R rated movies.

well, most r-rated movies (cough, Furiosa, cough)

[titanic2187]

 

Finally not mirroring TLC.