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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

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From Corpse as always

 

 

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train - Daily Performance Tracker

10/16 - Fri.: ¥1,268,724,700 ($12.0 million) / 910,507
10/17 - Sat.: ¥1,701,723,350 ($16.2 million) / 1,270,234
10/18 - Sun.: ¥1,652,669,400 ($15.7 million) / 1,239,752
10/19 - Mon.: ¥735,000,000 ($7.0 million) / 545,000 
10/20 - Tues.: ¥545,000,000 ($5.1 million) / 395,000 
10/21 - Wed.: ¥635,000,000 ($6.0 million) / 505,000
10/22 - Thur.: ¥465,000,000 ($4.5 million) / 340,000 
10/23 - Fri.: ¥700,000,000 ($6.7 million) / 510,000
10/24 - Sat.: ¥1,500,944,600 ($14.3 million) / 1,115,182 
10/25 - Sun.: ¥1,540,504,150 ($14.7 million) / 1,157,654 
10/26 - Mon.: ¥620,000,000 ($5.9 million) / 460,000
10/27 - Tues.: ¥410,000,000 ($3.9 million) / 300,000 
10/28 - Wed.: ¥575,000,000 ($5.5 million) / 430,000
10/29 - Thur.: ¥390,000,000 ($3.7 million) / 285,000
10/30 - Fri.: ¥555,000,000 ($5.3 million) / 405,000
10/31 - Sat.: ¥1,212,312,550 ($11.6 million) / 887,893
11/01 - Sun.: ¥1,286,354,600 ($12.3 million) / 1,140,390 *Discount Day*
11/02 - Mon: ¥820,000,000 ($7.8 million) / 605,000 *Holiday Boosted*
11/03 - Tues.: ¥1,185,000,000 ($11.3 million) / 900,000 *Holiday*
11/04 - Wed.: ¥350,000,000 ($3.3 million) / 260,000 
11/05 - Thur.: ¥230,000,000 ($2.2 million) / 170,000 
11/06 - Fri.: ¥325,000,000 ($3.1 million) / 240,000 
11/07 - Sat.: ¥863,827,750 ($8.3 million) / 628,614
11/08 - Sun.: ¥909,098,150 ($8.8 million) / 667,179
11/09 - Mon.: ¥315,000,000 ($3.0 million) / 230,000 
11/10 - Tues.: ¥220,000,000 ($2.1 million) / 160,000 
11/11 - Wed.: ¥295,000,000 ($2.8 million) / 230,000 
11/12 - Thur.: ¥200,000,000 ($1.9 million) / 145,000 
11/13 - Fri.: ¥310,000,000 ($3.0 million) / 225,000 
11/14 - Sat.: ¥795,343,500 ($7.6 million) / 611,418 
11/15 - Sun.: ¥726,313,550 ($6.9 million) / 535,986
11/16 - Mon.: ¥265,000,000 ($2.5 million) / 195,000 
11/17 - Tues.: ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 120,000 
11/18 - Wed.: ¥240,000,000 ($2.3 million) / 185,000
11/19 - Thur.: ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 120,000 
11/20 - Fri.: ¥240,000,000 ($2.3 million) / 170,000 
11/21 - Sat.: ¥439,606,550 ($4.2 million) / 314,726 
11/22 - Sun.: ¥592,738,550 ($5.7 million) / 433,315
11/23 - Mon.: ¥460,110,250 ($4.4 million) / 357,741 *Holiday*
11/24 - Tues.: ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million) / 90,000 
11/25 - Wed.: ¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million) / 120,000 
11/26 - Thur.: ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million) / 85,000 
11/27 - Fri.: ¥195,000,000 ($1.9 million) / 130,000 
11/28 - Sat.: ¥556,443,300 ($5.3 million) / 392,017 
11/29 - Sun: ¥448,060,450 ($4.3 million) / 320,031
11/30 - Mon.: ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million) / 105,000 
12/01 - Tues.: ¥170,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 145,000 *Discount Day*
12/02 - Wed.: ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million) /100,000 
12/03 - Thur.: ¥x95,000,000 ($0.9 million) / x70,000 
12/04 - Fri.: ¥145,000,000 ($1.4 million) / 105,000 
12/05 - Sat.: ¥319,013,550 ($3.1 million) / 225,976 
12/06 - Sun.: ¥336,505,700 ($3.2 million) / 239,874
12/07 - Mon.: ¥100,000,000 ($1.0 million) / x75,000 
12/08 - Tues.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x55,000 
12/09 - Wed.: ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x90,000 
12/10 - Thur.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x60,000 
12/11 - Fri.: ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x80,000 
12/12 - Sat.: ¥588,408,200 ($5.7 million) / 407,286
12/13 - Sun.: ¥351,003,000 ($3.4 million) / 248,024
12/14 - Mon.: ¥120,000,000 ($1.2 million) / x85,000 *est.*
12/15 - Tues.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x60,000 *est.*
12/16 - Wed.: ¥110,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x80,000 *est.*
12/16 - Thur.: ¥75,000,000 ($0.7 million) / x55,000 *est.*


63-Day Cumulative Total: ¥30,679,307,700 ($292.7 million) / 22,819,385 

Note: Mon.-Fri. are estimates (excluding Holiday Mondays), therefore adding up each day won't equal the actual total.

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Top 10 Highest-Grossing Films of All-Time

001. ¥31.68 billion ($261.2 million) - Spirited Away (2001)*
002. ¥30.68 billion ($290.9 million) - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *63-Day Est.
_______________
003. ¥27.05 billion ($218.0 million) - Titanic (1997)*
004. ¥25.50 billion ($249.6 million) - Frozen (2014)
005. ¥25.03 billion ($236.5 million) - Your Name. (2016) 
006. ¥20.30 billion ($163.7 million) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
007. ¥20.18 billion ($173.7 million) - Princess Mononoke (1997)*
_______________
008. ¥19.60 billion ($190.0 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
009. ¥17.35 billion ($164.5 million) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
010. ¥17.30 billion ($147.8 million) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)

 

 

 

Most Attended Films of All-Time

001. 23.50 million / [24.28 million] - Spirited Away (2001)*
002. 22.82 million - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *63-Day Est.*
003. 20.03 million - Frozen (2014)
_____________
004. 19.50 million - Tokyo Olympiad (1965)
005. 19.30 million - Your Name. (2016) 
006. 16.83 million / [17.43 million] - Titanic (1997)*
007. 16.20 million - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
008. 15.50 million - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
_____________
009. 14.20 million / [14.98 million] - Princess Mononoke (1997)*
010. 14.00 million - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)

Edited by CoolK
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15 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

This week weekdays DS has been holding like a god and its not even in holiday period yet. 

Friday with 5 new openers and 75% drop in number of available seats and it still manages in sub -15% drop. 

 

Actual drop in seats is more like 42% for Demon Slayer, at least in the reported locations per Mimorin. 

 

Last Friday: 497106

This Friday: 289288

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1 hour ago, WandaLegion said:

If it releases in China there’s a very good chance, if it doesn’t there’s a very small chance.

At this point we are looking at $360mn from Japan at least. Exchange rate is going down so that will help couple of millions, but what I hate is that western media will simply divide the gross by ER of that day, which may inflate the overall gross, so they may come with some wrong result. Like at yday ER DS has grossed $298.5mn while actual is around $293mn.

 

Setting that aside, $365mn in Japan, $21mn in Taiwan, $5mn in Thailand (?), $4mn in Hong Kong & $3mn in rest of South East Asia will put it at $398mn leaving aside $55mn million ish for 2020 topper.

 

It will need a big big Korea. $25mn at least and then somehow hope USA do $5-10mn and Latin America go boom for it.

 

Without China it's gonna be really really tough.

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2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

At this point we are looking at $360mn from Japan at least. Exchange rate is going down so that will help couple of millions, but what I hate is that western media will simply divide the gross by ER of that day, which may inflate the overall gross, so they may come with some wrong result. Like at yday ER DS has grossed $298.5mn while actual is around $293mn.

 

Setting that aside, $365mn in Japan, $21mn in Taiwan, $5mn in Thailand (?), $4mn in Hong Kong & $3mn in rest of South East Asia will put it at $398mn leaving aside $55mn million ish for 2020 topper.

 

It will need a big big Korea. $25mn at least and then somehow hope USA do $5-10mn and Latin America go boom for it.

 

Without China it's gonna be really really tough.

Keep in mind that the film will be released in Europe in early 2021 as well, and I think it can fetch $20M-$25M there.

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10 hours ago, CoolK said:

Top 10 Highest-Grossing Films of All-Time

001. ¥31.68 billion ($261.2 million) - Spirited Away (2001)*
002. ¥30.68 billion ($290.9 million) - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *63-Day Est.
_______________
003. ¥27.05 billion ($218.0 million) - Titanic (1997)*
004. ¥25.50 billion ($249.6 million) - Frozen (2014)
005. ¥25.03 billion ($236.5 million) - Your Name. (2016) 
006. ¥20.30 billion ($163.7 million) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
007. ¥20.18 billion ($173.7 million) - Princess Mononoke (1997)*
_______________
008. ¥19.60 billion ($190.0 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
009. ¥17.35 billion ($164.5 million) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
010. ¥17.30 billion ($147.8 million) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)

 

 

 

Most Attended Films of All-Time

001. 23.50 million / [24.28 million] - Spirited Away (2001)*
002. 22.82 million - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *63-Day Est.*
003. 20.03 million - Frozen (2014)
_____________
004. 19.50 million - Tokyo Olympiad (1965)
005. 19.30 million - Your Name. (2016) 
006. 16.83 million / [17.43 million] - Titanic (1997)*
007. 16.20 million - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
008. 15.50 million - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
_____________
009. 14.20 million / [14.98 million] - Princess Mononoke (1997)*
010. 14.00 million - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)

 

Ah well I see that finally the re-releases are counted in the total gross (Spirited Away, Titanic and Princess Mononoke), but not in the number of tickets sold? Can I ask you why? 

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Weekend Forecast (12/19-20):
01 (01) ¥475,000,000 ($4.6 million), -50%, ¥31,250,000,000 ($298.2 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK10
02 (02) ¥374,000,000 ($3.6 million), -37%, ¥1,580,000,000 ($15.0 million), New Interpretation Records of the Three Kingdoms (Toho) WK2
03 (---) ¥260,000,000 ($2.5 million), 0, ¥345,000,000 ($3.3 million), The Promised Neverland (Toho) NEW
04 (---) ¥180,000,000 ($1.7 million), 0, ¥240,000,000 ($2.3 million), Wonder Woman 1984 (Warner Bros.) NEW
05 (---) ¥170,000,000 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥220,000,000 ($2.1 million), Kamen Rider Zero-One: REAL x TIME (Toei) NEW
06 (03) ¥126,000,000 ($1.2 million), -32%, ¥1,985,000,000 ($19.1 million), Stand By Me, Doraemon 2 (Toho) WK5
07 (04) ¥x77,000,000 ($745,000), -45%, ¥1,335,000,000 ($12.8 million), Takizawa Kabuki Zero 2020: The Movie (Shochiku) WK3
08 (05) ¥x52,000,000 ($505,000), -42%, ¥345,000,000 ($3.3 million), Tengaramon (Giggly Box) WK2
09 (---) ¥x35,000,000 ($340,000), 0, ¥x55,000,000 ($0.5 million), Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo [4DX re-release] (Toho/Toei/Khara) NEW
10 (06) ¥x34,000,000 ($330,000), -45%, ¥370,000,000 ($3.6 million), Fate/Grand Order - Divine Realm of the Round Table: Camelot 1 (Aniplex) WK3


Demon Slayer: Mugen Train is likely to claim its 10th-consecutive week atop the box-office, but it's going to become more difficult to predict its weekends for the next several weeks as the "lower" numbers mean it's more susceptible to bigger increase/decrease changes from the giveaways/post-giveaways and upcoming holiday period. I almost randomly went with a 45% increase last weekend (it increased 43%, so very close), and I'm sort of doing that again this weekend with this 50% decline, but with some more accurately, to more or less balance out that huge increase last week.

Saturday will be down a ton, probably in the 60-70% territory since last Saturday was up nearly 100% over the previous Saturday. Sunday will be better though, and will receive a small boost from MOVIX Cinema Day (every 20th), to get the weekend itself down around 50% or so I'm predicting.

The Promised Neverland appears like it'll end up with a good enough debut to be considered a decent success. The live-action Shonen genre has a rough track record, but this one should avoid the lower-tier of that list. If it debuts around the estimate above, then it'll get above ¥1.5 billion (~$15 million) and might approach ¥2 billion (~$20 million) with the help of the holidays if the audience reception is at least average.

Wonder Woman 1984 will certainly open below the first film, but that was expected and shouldn't have been in consideration by anyone. Marvel and DC films don't perform very well in the market outside of Spider-Man and The Avengers, especially the DC side. I also don't think it has the strength to get above the ¥200 million mark over the weekend, probably earning around two-thirds of its predecessor's opening weekend.

Kamen Rider Zero-One: REAL x TIME might be able to open higher than Wonder Woman in admissions, but unless it does so by a fair margin, it's looking to debut lower in revenue. I was hoping it could get at least ¥200 million, but it's going to need to really outdo its reservations and receive a good-sized Sunday bump (same applies to Wonder Woman).

And lastly: I mentioned in the Demon Slayer analysis, Sunday is a MOVIX Cinema Day, so Saturday could be slightly misleading on how the weekend as a whole plays out since their moviegoers are likely to hold off until Sunday. MOVIX is the third or fourth busiest chain (it and United are comparable), so while its discount day doesn't compare to Toho or Aeon, it does provide a slight bump.
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37 minutes ago, Mau said:

Is there a reason why Marvel performs a little bit better than DC in japan? I know the difference is minimal, but i have a theory that the fact the it belongs to disney could help, but I could be wrong.

Maybe because most DC movies suck and the Japanese are more attached to characters like Spiderman or Thor rather than Shazam or Wonder Woman.

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2 hours ago, Mau said:

Is there a reason why Marvel performs a little bit better than DC in japan? I know the difference is minimal, but i have a theory that the fact the it belongs to disney could help, but I could be wrong.

Its still doing way less then first 

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From corpse

 

Weekend Estimates (12/19-20):
01 (01) ¥380,000,000 ($3.7 million), -60%, ¥31,155,000,000 ($297.3 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK10
02 (02) ¥368,000,000 ($3.6 million), -38%, ¥1,575,000,000 ($15.0 million), New Interpretation Records of the Three Kingdoms (Toho) WK2
03 (---) ¥280,000,000 ($2.7 million), 0, ¥365,000,000 ($3.5 million), The Promised Neverland (Toho) NEW
04 (---) ¥130,000,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥180,000,000 ($1.7 million), Kamen Rider Zero-One: REAL x TIME (Toei) NEW
05 (---) ¥120,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥180,000,000 ($1.7 million), Wonder Woman 1984 (Warner Bros.) NEW
06 (03) ¥119,000,000 ($1.2 million), -36%, ¥1,980,000,000 ($19.0 million), Stand By Me, Doraemon 2 (Toho) WK5
07 (04) ¥x91,000,000 ($880,000), -35%, ¥1,350,000,000 ($12.9 million), Takizawa Kabuki Zero 2020: The Movie (Shochiku) WK3
08 (05) ¥x44,000,000 ($425,000), -51%, ¥340,000,000 ($3.3 million), Tengaramon (Giggly Box) WK2
09 (---) ¥x35,000,000 ($340,000), 0, ¥x55,000,000 ($0.5 million), Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo [4DX re-release] (Toho/Toei/Khara) NEW
10 (06) ¥x31,000,000 ($300,000), -49%, ¥370,000,000 ($3.6 million), Fate/Grand Order - Divine Realm of the Round Table: Camelot 1 (Aniplex) WK3


>Demon Slayer: Mugen Train dropped harder than expected, but there's nothing to be "worried" about here. It's probably going to be back up 40/50% or something next weekend, which will make anyone that's disappointed (...) think otherwise. It's a little over ¥500 million away from overtaking Spirited Away to become the new #1 film of all-time, which will likely occur next Saturday. 

>The Promised Neverland performed quite well, opening higher than many other live-action Shonen/manga/anime adaptations (Bleach, Tokyo Ghoul, Black Butler, Jojo's Bizarre Adventure, among others), and has set itself up nicely heading into the holiday period soon. It may still have some degree of frontloading, but it has a pretty good shot at reaching the ¥2 billion (~$20 million) milestone. 

>Kamen Rider Zero-One: REAL x TIME had a mediocre start, among the lowest in the series. The series does skew younger, so that could be part of the reason (younger-skewing films have been the most impacted by COVID), but the series has also been on a downward trend as of late. The series has those though, just like it has a year or two of trending upward again, so I wouldn't be particularly concerned here. 

>Wonder Woman 1984 did not open well, not at all. It's down over 50% compared to the opening weekend of the original film. A drop-off was already expected given the unpopularity of superhero films, especially among DC releases, but this is a bit extreme. There hasn't really been any DC sequels except for, I guess, The Justice League which dropped almost 50% over its opening weekend compared to Batman v Superman, so that could be a good comparison here, too.

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Demon Slayer: Mugen Train - Daily Performance Tracker

10/16 - Fri.: ¥1,268,724,700 ($12.0 million) / 910,507
10/17 - Sat.: ¥1,701,723,350 ($16.2 million) / 1,270,234
10/18 - Sun.: ¥1,652,669,400 ($15.7 million) / 1,239,752
10/19 - Mon.: ¥735,000,000 ($7.0 million) / 545,000 
10/20 - Tues.: ¥545,000,000 ($5.1 million) / 395,000 
10/21 - Wed.: ¥635,000,000 ($6.0 million) / 505,000
10/22 - Thur.: ¥465,000,000 ($4.5 million) / 340,000 
10/23 - Fri.: ¥700,000,000 ($6.7 million) / 510,000
10/24 - Sat.: ¥1,500,944,600 ($14.3 million) / 1,115,182 
10/25 - Sun.: ¥1,540,504,150 ($14.7 million) / 1,157,654 
10/26 - Mon.: ¥620,000,000 ($5.9 million) / 460,000
10/27 - Tues.: ¥410,000,000 ($3.9 million) / 300,000 
10/28 - Wed.: ¥575,000,000 ($5.5 million) / 430,000
10/29 - Thur.: ¥390,000,000 ($3.7 million) / 285,000
10/30 - Fri.: ¥555,000,000 ($5.3 million) / 405,000
10/31 - Sat.: ¥1,212,312,550 ($11.6 million) / 887,893
11/01 - Sun.: ¥1,286,354,600 ($12.3 million) / 1,140,390 *Discount Day*
11/02 - Mon: ¥820,000,000 ($7.8 million) / 605,000 *Holiday Boosted*
11/03 - Tues.: ¥1,185,000,000 ($11.3 million) / 900,000 *Holiday*
11/04 - Wed.: ¥350,000,000 ($3.3 million) / 260,000 
11/05 - Thur.: ¥230,000,000 ($2.2 million) / 170,000 
11/06 - Fri.: ¥325,000,000 ($3.1 million) / 240,000 
11/07 - Sat.: ¥863,827,750 ($8.3 million) / 628,614
11/08 - Sun.: ¥909,098,150 ($8.8 million) / 667,179
11/09 - Mon.: ¥315,000,000 ($3.0 million) / 230,000 
11/10 - Tues.: ¥220,000,000 ($2.1 million) / 160,000 
11/11 - Wed.: ¥295,000,000 ($2.8 million) / 230,000 
11/12 - Thur.: ¥200,000,000 ($1.9 million) / 145,000 
11/13 - Fri.: ¥310,000,000 ($3.0 million) / 225,000 
11/14 - Sat.: ¥795,343,500 ($7.6 million) / 611,418 
11/15 - Sun.: ¥726,313,550 ($6.9 million) / 535,986
11/16 - Mon.: ¥265,000,000 ($2.5 million) / 195,000 
11/17 - Tues.: ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 120,000 
11/18 - Wed.: ¥240,000,000 ($2.3 million) / 185,000
11/19 - Thur.: ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 120,000 
11/20 - Fri.: ¥240,000,000 ($2.3 million) / 170,000 
11/21 - Sat.: ¥439,606,550 ($4.2 million) / 314,726 
11/22 - Sun.: ¥592,738,550 ($5.7 million) / 433,315
11/23 - Mon.: ¥460,110,250 ($4.4 million) / 357,741 *Holiday*
11/24 - Tues.: ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million) / 90,000 
11/25 - Wed.: ¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million) / 120,000 
11/26 - Thur.: ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million) / 85,000 
11/27 - Fri.: ¥195,000,000 ($1.9 million) / 130,000 
11/28 - Sat.: ¥556,443,300 ($5.3 million) / 392,017 
11/29 - Sun: ¥448,060,450 ($4.3 million) / 320,031
11/30 - Mon.: ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million) / 105,000 
12/01 - Tues.: ¥170,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 145,000 *Discount Day*
12/02 - Wed.: ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million) /100,000 
12/03 - Thur.: ¥x95,000,000 ($0.9 million) / x70,000 
12/04 - Fri.: ¥145,000,000 ($1.4 million) / 105,000 
12/05 - Sat.: ¥319,013,550 ($3.1 million) / 225,976 
12/06 - Sun.: ¥336,505,700 ($3.2 million) / 239,874
12/07 - Mon.: ¥100,000,000 ($1.0 million) / x75,000 
12/08 - Tues.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x55,000 
12/09 - Wed.: ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x90,000 
12/10 - Thur.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x60,000 
12/11 - Fri.: ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x80,000 
12/12 - Sat.: ¥588,408,200 ($5.7 million) / 407,286
12/13 - Sun.: ¥351,003,000 ($3.4 million) / 248,024
12/14 - Mon.: ¥120,000,000 ($1.2 million) / x85,000
12/15 - Tues.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x60,000 
12/16 - Wed.: ¥110,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x85,000 
12/17 - Thur.: ¥x75,000,000 ($0.7 million) / x55,000 
12/18 - Fri.: ¥x90,000,000 ($0.9 million) / x65,000 
12/19 - Sat.: ¥187,788,050 ($1.8 million) / 133,068 
12/20 - Sun.: ¥202,627,400 ($2.0 million) / 148,780


66-Day Cumulative Total: ¥31,166,647,900 ($297.4 million) / 23,175,884

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