JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Infernus]

     

[Infernus]

So the target has moved from beating BH6 to beating FF7....?

[Infernus]

Maybe, maybe the bad opening is just because this was an original film put against highly known and popular franchise/TV films? Maybe just being Pixar's  wasn't enough to convince the people to watch this instead of the other offerings? Maybe the awareness just wasn't much? In that case, maybe, maybe as the word of mouth kicks in, the numbers would improve? Maybe WOM and reviews will lead to a second weekend above the first one just like in SK? I really want this to atleast get above 5.5B Y...

[CelestialFairyIX]

I've heard numerous times that competition doesn't really matter for a film to do well in this market. Can we expect the same with Inside out or will it just flop? (comparatively speaking)

Inside Out will not outright flop but it certainly is performing weaker than past original Pixar animated features. However, due to IO's demographic skewing older at the moment and summer vacation right around the corner, the film should get some much needed boosts. Also, looking at it's Sunday performance thus far, it is performing as it should: a family film so word of mouth should kick in soon and hopefully good WOM. The only competition lies in Hero 2, The Boy and the Beast, Pokemon, and Minions releasing July 31st and the last three films all target the minor demographic. Then Attack on Titans the live action flick comes and that should dominate the Box Office for quite awhile. As for Minions, I'm unsure.

[CelestialFairyIX]

Maybe, maybe the bad opening is just because this was an original film put against highly known and popular franchise/TV films? Maybe just being Pixar's wasn't enough to convince the people to watch this instead of the other offerings? Maybe the awareness just wasn't much? In that case, maybe, maybe as the word of mouth kicks in, the numbers would improve? Maybe WOM and reviews will lead to a second weekend above the first one just like in SK? I really want this to atleast get above 5.5B Y...

¥5.5 billion seems a bit of a stretch given how it's performing and Corpse believes the biggest factor towards this weak performance is due to the nature of release date: Studio Chizu is hurting IO's performance a lot more than Studio Ghibli ever did according to Corpse so legs could be cut short. Disney/Pixar needs to adjust to this new competition and playing field and begin to release their animated films when a Studio Chizu film isn't playing or go for a Fall slot. Right now, anything above ¥4.5 billion is a win at this point.

Edited July 19, 2015 by CelestialFairyIX

[Mojoguy]

Corpse

 

The term frontloaded doesn't really exist in Japan. There is usually no more than 5 or so wide-releases a year that get multipliers under 5. Kamen Rider are some of the most frontloaded films, and even they get over 4 and sometimes 5.

 

Multiplier breakdown:

Less than 3: I've never seen a film have less than this, so I don't believe it's doable...

Less than 5: Usually reserved for films with very niche appeal or very poorly received films released in January, February, June, or October (the four weakest months of the year).

5-7: The norm. The vast majority of releases end up in this range. Even sequels and yearly installments such as Detective Conan or Pokemon have no problem getting here. Films with bad reviews can sometimes pull of a 5, too.

8-10: Films that earn a multiplier in this range usually have holiday support and are released during robust times of the year. Great reviews and WOM also play a big role here. Also, films that play nearly exclusively to the senior demo generally have no problems ending up here.

10+: Wide-scale appeal, plays well with the 40+ audience (the biggest demo in Japan), and has great reviews. A multiplier of this level almost always requires a release date around Obon (July) or New Year (December) to go this high, too, though there are a few exceptions.

15+: Everything that a 10+ film has, but also includes repeat viewings. The Japanese rarely go to the movies, much less to see the same film two or more times (TV remains very popular in Japan). But when they do, big things happen. Fewer than 10 films have earned a 15+ multiplier in the past 15 years, and only two were released outside of July and December.

 

[KATCH-2D2]

Inside Out will not outright flop but it certainly is performing weaker than past original Pixar animated features. However, due to IO's demographic skewing older at the moment and summer vacation right around the corner, the film should get some much needed boosts. Also, looking at it's Sunday performance thus far, it is performing as it should: a family film so word of mouth should kick in soon and hopefully good WOM. The only competition lies in Hero 2, The Boy and the Beast, Pokemon, and Minions releasing July 31st and the last three films all target the minor demographic. Then Attack on Titans the live action flick comes and that should dominate the Box Office for quite awhile. As for Minions, I'm unsure.

 

M:I5 and JW are doomed then. Too bad for M:I5, JW at least might not need the yens that much.

[Mojoguy]

Corpse

 

In regard to Competition:

Competition generally only affects films when it comes to screens/showtimes. There are rarely any cases of one film hurting another, even if similar films are released at the same time.

For example, three big films just opened this weekend and everything is going to avoid a 40% drop except maybe Terminator: Genisys, although it could still drop sub-40%, too.

Half of this weekend's Top 10 are also animated films, and they're not really affecting one another except for possibly Inside Out looking to be affected by The Boy and the Beast (just like Brave was by Wolf Children in 2012). It's one of a few known examples of a film hurting another outside of competing for screens/showtimes.

In regard to Reviews:

They do matter, but it really comes down to WOM rather than simple positive/negative reviews.

There are many cases every year where a very well-reviewed film has mediocre legs, and poorly-reviewed films end up having strong legs. In the majority of cases, strong reviews haven't proven a key factor in generating interest where they wasn't much to begin with.

In regard to Despicable Me/Minions:

The first Despicable Me film surprises, earning over ¥1 billion. That isn't an impressive sum in itself, but it is for an imported non-Disney animated title. Then, the sequel managed to cross the ¥2 billion milestone. They've also sold fairly well on DVD, so they do seem to have gained an audience.

As for Minions, it'll be interesting to track. I don't think the Japanese are captivated by the minions themselves as the rest of the world, rather Gru and the kids seem to be more popular characters. Spin-off titles in general rarely perform better than main franchise films, too, so I'm not expecting Minions to outgross Despicable Me 2, but achieving ¥2 billion again is certainly possible.

Edited July 19, 2015 by Mojoguy

[CelestialFairyIX]

- Minions, Corpse believes the film might cross ¥2 billion but in general, Japan does not favor side releases of established franchises and the Minions brand is not as rife compared to other countries. As noted by Corpse as well, Gru and the kids seem to be the main impact and due to them being non-present, it could hurt thr overall performance.

- Mission: Impossible - Roge Nation, Tom Cruise is a major draw in Japan and due to the nature of the Japanese Box Office, the film should do fine.

- Attack on Titans live action film, should be one of the biggest live action films in my opinion: one of the best selling manga of this decade, a loyal fanbase, and the episodes gathered into one film movies have done quite well at the box office.

- Jurassic World, personally, this could be a hit or miss and seeing how well the Jurassic Park trilogy did back then, Japan seems to have an admiration and love for the films but it has since evolved and Jurassic World will either perform sub-par or even surprise us and become a blockbuster hit.

Edited July 19, 2015 by CelestialFairyIX

[Mojoguy]

M:I5 and JW are doomed then. Too bad for M:I5, JW at least might not need the yens that much.

I think MI5 will do fine. Japan likes Tom Cruise. MI5 is looking to break out big time in China though, its rumored competition there opening on the same week will be... Inside Out.

 

I think JW could go either way. The first JP made $120,036,757 there, but the sequels were much less liked. But GOTG didn't do that well in Japan, so Chris Pratt won't be a factor like it might have been in the US.

[Infernus]

As for minions, i don't think its going to be much of a hit here. This is Japan for fuck's sake. The land of anime, Studio Ghibli, Miyazaki and takahata. They are used to quality animated offerings. Mediocre, and that too foreign, animated stuff is not going to get much love here.

[lab276]

Part of what makes multis in Japan so good is that weekends are two days, so it is a bit artificial.

IO is opening weaker than expected and Boy and Beast has fallen more than I thought, so maybe there is something going on there, not to forget the typhoon. Something will give eventually.

Edited July 19, 2015 by lab276

[Rsyu]

Tom Cruise is still a major draw in Japan? The performances of oblivion & EoT would suggest otherwise. The MI series itself could still be a draw though. 

[CoolK]

that IO figure is depressing TBH 

[Olive]

IO is tracking 40% ahead of OD.

[pepsa]

IO is tracking 40% ahead of OD.

 

Is this good?

[Mojoguy]

Part of what makes multis in Japan so good is that weekends are two days, so it is a bit artificial.

Japan prefers to wait to see movies so they are bound to be less frontloaded than movies in the US. Sellouts really don't happen there, which is why movies can have insane 10 multipliers.

 

There is a much bigger rush factor in the US which is why multipliers aren't that good for many movies.

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Usual Locations - Saturday Admissions (43% of Market)

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 4PM > 7PM > Final

24,326 -> 27,257 -> 31,097 -> 61,339 -> 64,382 -> 69,550 -> 85,311 -> 102,837 -> 127,815 - Hero 2 (NEW)
16,339 -> 27,685 -> 32,440 -> 42,368 -> 48,705 -> 54,630 -> 60,943 -> 67,816 -> 67,942 - Pokemon XY: Hoopa and the Clash of Ages (NEW)
4,814 -> 8,524 -> 13,883 -> 19,652 -> 25,075 -> 34,117 -> 40,822 -> 54,248 -> 66,063 - The Boy and the Beast (Week 2)
6,602 -> 12,938 -> 16,436 -> 22,930 -> 30,140 -> 34,552 -> 42,665 -> 52,047 -> 59,793 - Inside Out (NEW)
3,601 -> 5,572 -> 9,445 -> 14,019 -> 16,078 -> 20,897 -> 25,801 -> 34,146 -> 44,536 - Terminator: Genisys (Week 2)
2,577 -> 3,878 -> 7,152 -> 9,061 -> 10,279 -> 15,983 -> 18,093 -> 24,042 -> 31,117 - Avengers: Age of Ultron (Week 3)

Usual Locations - Sunday Admissions (43% of Market)

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 4PM > 7PM > Final

14,635 -> 24,640 -> 34,004 -> 48,404 -> 60,600 -> 74,367 -> 90,080 - Hero 2 (NEW)
12,673 -> 23,435 -> 31,113 -> 39,871 -> 50,335 -> 55,833 -> 62,909 - Pokemon XY: Hoopa and the Clash of Ages (NEW)
6,860 -> 12,627 -> 20,034 -> 28,701 -> 39,413 -> 51,995 -> 62,231 - The Boy and the Beast (Week 2)
7,878 -> 15,695 -> 22,409 -> 28,508 -> 42,983 -> 49,705 -> 60,854 - Inside Out (NEW)
5,210 -> 8,546 -> 13,639 -> 20,680 -> 25,185 -> 32,882 -> 38,987 - Terminator: Genisys (Week 2)
3,716 -> 5,261 -> 10,129 -> 13,199 -> 15,940 -> 23,856 -> 26,910 - Avengers: Age of Ultron (Week 3)

Note: Typhoon Nangka will be affecting all of Japan through the weekend, so weekend admissions could be a bit deflated as a result.

Hero 2 is looking mighty impressive. It's on pace to beat yesterday, despite yesterday's stage greetings. So much for that Sunday drop-off, heh. There's a good chance it can reach ¥800 million+ over the weekend with possibly 600,000 admissions, delivering the best opening weekend for any live-action film this year. It'll be tough for Attack on Titan or Jurassic World to beat that on their opening weekends next month.

And this is turning out to be one strong Sunday. The typhoon doesn't seem to be affecting the box office at all, or if it has, it just deflated yesterday a bit.

[CelestialFairyIX]

Inside Out and The Boy and the Beast have a chance at beating Pokemon Sunday due to Pokemon's poor performances during the afternoon hours and most of it's audience attend the film during the morning hours,

[Mockingjay Raphael]

Where IO is looking to finish? Up's numbers is possible?