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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

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It's even 50% above Frozen II's Saturday record...on a Friday. 

 

Corpse : 

 

Usual Locations (~70% of Market) - Weekend Admissions

Biggest Openers Since 2015:

Saturday Results (~70% of Market):
Tickets Sold/Available Tickets (% Capacity), [Theaters/Showings], Film Title
675,749/1,318,572 (51.2% capacity), [267/6,176] - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Oct., 2020) *FRIDAY*
452,803/1,077,542 (42.0% capacity), [267/3,777] - Frozen II (Nov., 2019)
348,024/605,267 (57.4% capacity), [239/1,676] - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Apr., 2017)
345,143/655,976 (52.6% capacity), [249/1,832] - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Apr., 2018)
332,987/725,315 (45.9% capacity), [258/2,202] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Apr., 2019)
330,349/701,865 (47.1% capacity), [247/2,864] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (July, 2017)
317,709/530,456 (59.9% capacity), [231/1,727] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Dec., 2015)
293,246/714,702 (41.0% capacity), [236/2,789] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Dec., 2015)
289,656/530,905 (54.5% capacity), [230/1,502] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Apr., 2016)
286,726/658,842 (43.5% capacity), [231/2,256] - One Piece Film Gold (July, 2016)
283,482/670,255 (42.3% capacity), [254/2,527] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec., 2017)
279,289/719,848 (38.8% capacity), [261/2,370] - Weathering With You (July, 2019)
274,872/775,754 (35.4% capacity), [262/2,657] - Toy Story 4 (July, 2019)
274,621/729,821 (37.6% capacity), [267/2,669] - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Dec., 2019)
271,313/719,670 (37.7% capacity), [261/2,374] - Aladdin (June, 2019)
266,911/816,498 (32.7% capacity), [251/3,196] - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (July, 2018)
262,671/667,610 (39.3% capacity), [245/2,327] - Beauty and the Beast (Apr., 2017)
248,613/533,783 (46.6% capacity), [258/2,293] - Avengers: Endgame (Apr., 2019)
241,332/608,132 (39.7% capacity), [250/1,979] - Code Blue (July, 2018)
227,517/473,967 (48.0% capacity), [221/1,582] - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F (Apr., 2015)
217,221/919,956 (23.6% capacity), [258/3,250] - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Nov., 2018)
209,804/462,825 (45.3% capacity), [229/1,366] - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (Apr., 2015)
205,137/648,401 (31.6% capacity), [259/2,096] - Godzilla: King of the Monsters (June, 2019)
202,075/451,836 (44.7% capacity), [218/1,257] - Your Name. (Aug., 2016)
196,491/520,369 (37.8% capacity), [237/1,744] - Jurassic World (Aug., 2015)
193,053/648,160 (29.8% capacity), [252/2,037] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Dec., 2018)
191,730/585,196 (32.8% capacity), [254/1,787] - One Piece: Stampede (Aug., 2019)
187,901/485,825 (38.7% capacity), [235/1,574] - Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Mar., 2018)
174,835/517,134 (33.8% capacity), [260/1,835] - Spider-Man: Far From Home (June, 2019)
174,797/501,322 (34.8% capacity), [240/1,487] - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Mar., 2017)
166,650/766,440 (21.7% capacity), [241/2,556] - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Nov., 2016)
165,385/471,596 (35.1% capacity), [262/2,020] - The Lion King (Aug., 2019)
157,910/547,894 (28.8% capacity), [252/1,655] - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Mar., 2019)
157,739/484,007 (32.6% capacity), [247/1,422] - Masquerade Hotel (Jan., 2019)
151,875/419,163 (36.2% capacity), [251/1,655] - Avengers: Infinity War (Apr., 2018)
139,061/668,663 (20.8% capacity), [236/2,346] - Finding Dory (July, 2016)
136,031/515,406 (26.4% capacity), [233/1,460] - Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Mar., 2016)
136,021/413,696 (32.9% capacity), [259/1,802] - Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution (July, 2019)

Edited by Cynosure
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If we use 925,000 at the usual locations, that'd likely mean around 1.3 million admissions for the day. And 1.3 million admissions would result in a Saturday gross around ¥1.7 billion ($16 million). So...

Friday: ~¥1.3 billion ($12 million) / ~950,000 admissions.
Saturday: ~¥1.7 billion ($16 million) / ~1.3 million admissions.

Sunday will probably be between the two days, but likely closer to Saturday than Friday, but let's say right in the middle with ~¥1.5 billion ($14 million) / ~1.1 million admissions.

So possibly looking at an opening weekend of ¥3.2 billion ($30 million) / 2.4 million admissions, and a 3-day total of ¥4.5 billion ($42/43 million) / 3.3/3.4 million admissions. This would be just completely ridiculous, as it'd break the opening weekend record by almost ¥1 billion and about 1 million admissions. It'd also double the current 3-day record as well. And its 3-day total would be greater than all but 2 or 3 film's two-week (9/10-day) totals. But, it's looking realistic right now.

 

Some are anticipating a gross above ¥15 billion (~$150 million), and even ¥20 billion ($200 million), as you suggested, or higher, is being considered.

Demon Slayer has gone beyond just being a popular anime/manga series, and has truly become a social phenomenon in the country. I elaborated more in a prior post, but it checks all the boxes on what makes something a social phenomenon: An emotional or tragic story involving siblings/family or a couple, high critical/audience acclaim, popular chart-topping songs/soundtrack, and strong female support (unusual for most Shonen manga). Almost every top grossing film (or brand) in Japan has had these four ingredients that drove their success.
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When the whole world was struggling, Japanese create new opening record that bound to create some headline attention.

 

At this rate, DS doesn't need to be a leggy run to hit 100m. Although there will be only one public holiday on Nov 3, I believe this can beat Weathering with you.      

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I'm staying up all-night so I don't miss out on this historic moment. Japan is a never say never sort of market regarding records, even if it might take decades for something to be broken, but I just can't imagine what Demon Slayer is doing this weekend ever being topped.

It's going to break the opening weekend record, which has stood for 17-years (and includes a ton of previews), by possibly ¥1 billion and 1 million admissions. Just its Saturday alone won't be far off the opening weekend record. And its 3-day total could be higher than the two-week total of any past film. These are just some of the crazy records it's totally shattering, not simply beating, in its first three days. Who knows what it might put up afterwards. 

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train [Saturday Cumulative Hourly Sales]

Usual Locations (70% of the Market):

07AM - 11,314 (~15,800)...........................08AM - 30,010 (~42,000)
09AM - 93,760 (~131,300).........................10AM - 142,242 (~199,100)
11AM - 181,599 (~254,200)........................12PM - 276,561 (~387,200)
01PM - 336,368 (~470,900)........................02PM - 367,422 (~514,400)
03PM - 461,081 (~645,500)........................04PM - 520,550 (~728,800)
05PM - 559,281 (~783,000)........................06PM - 631,480 (~884,100)
07PM - 689,893 (~965,800)........................08PM - 791,427 (~1,108,000)
09PM - ......................10PM -
11PM - ......................12AM -
FINAL -


Note: Usual location admissions is the first number (70% of market), while I'm providing a projected overall admissions number in (parenthesis).

As of 8pm, it has sold 78.9% of its available seats up to that point.

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Weekend record in single day.

 

I am not able to recall something of that sorts anywhere.

 

The closest I can think of is Baahubali 2 OD of ₹138cr when previous weekend record in India was ₹147cr. Though if adjusted for the fact that Japan weekend is 2 days, and not 3 like India, Baahubali 2 did achieved that. It's almost in same rank in that case.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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Corpse

 

Usual Locations (~70% of Market) - Saturday Admissions

Biggest Openers Since 2015:

Saturday Results (~70% of Market):
Tickets Sold/Available Tickets (% Capacity), [Theaters/Showings], Film Title
983,582/1,278,438 (76.9% capacity), [267/6,080] - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Oct., 2020)
452,803/1,077,542 (42.0% capacity), [267/3,777] - Frozen II (Nov., 2019)
348,024/605,267 (57.4% capacity), [239/1,676] - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Apr., 2017)
345,143/655,976 (52.6% capacity), [249/1,832] - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Apr., 2018)
332,987/725,315 (45.9% capacity), [258/2,202] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Apr., 2019)
330,349/701,865 (47.1% capacity), [247/2,864] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (July, 2017)
317,709/530,456 (59.9% capacity), [231/1,727] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Dec., 2015)
293,246/714,702 (41.0% capacity), [236/2,789] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Dec., 2015)
289,656/530,905 (54.5% capacity), [230/1,502] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Apr., 2016)
286,726/658,842 (43.5% capacity), [231/2,256] - One Piece Film Gold (July, 2016)
283,482/670,255 (42.3% capacity), [254/2,527] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec., 2017)
279,289/719,848 (38.8% capacity), [261/2,370] - Weathering With You (July, 2019)
274,872/775,754 (35.4% capacity), [262/2,657] - Toy Story 4 (July, 2019)
274,621/729,871 (37.6% capacity), [267/2,669] - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Dec., 2019)
271,313/719,670 (37.7% capacity), [261/2,374] - Aladdin (June, 2019)
266,911/816,498 (32.7% capacity), [251/3,196] - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (July, 2018)
262,671/667,610 (39.3% capacity), [245/2,327] - Beauty and the Beast (Apr., 2017)
248,613/533,783 (46.6% capacity), [258/2,293] - Avengers: Endgame (Apr., 2019)
241,332/608,132 (39.7% capacity), [250/1,979] - Code Blue (July, 2018)
227,517/473,967 (48.0% capacity), [221/1,582] - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F (Apr., 2015)
217,221/919,956 (23.6% capacity), [258/3,250] - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Nov., 2018)
209,804/462,825 (45.3% capacity), [229/1,366] - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (Apr., 2015)
205,137/648,401 (31.6% capacity), [259/2,096] - Godzilla: King of the Monsters (June, 2019)
202,075/451,836 (44.7% capacity), [218/1,257] - Your Name. (Aug., 2016)
196,491/520,369 (37.8% capacity), [237/1,744] - Jurassic World (Aug., 2015)
193,053/648,160 (29.8% capacity), [252/2,037] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Dec., 2018)
191,730/585,196 (32.8% capacity), [254/1,787] - One Piece: Stampede (Aug., 2019)
187,901/485,825 (38.7% capacity), [235/1,574] - Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Mar., 2018)
174,835/517,134 (33.8% capacity), [260/1,835] - Spider-Man: Far From Home (June, 2019)
174,797/501,322 (34.8% capacity), [240/1,487] - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Mar., 2017)
166,650/766,440 (21.7% capacity), [241/2,556] - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Nov., 2016)
165,385/471,596 (35.1% capacity), [262/2,020] - The Lion King (Aug., 2019)
157,910/547,894 (28.9% capacity), [252/1,655] - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Mar., 2019)
157,739/484,007 (32.6% capacity), [247/1,422] - Masquerade Hotel (Jan., 2019)
151,875/419,163 (36.2% capacity), [251/1,655] - Avengers: Infinity War (Apr., 2018)
139,061/668,663 (20.8% capacity), [236/2,346] - Finding Dory (July, 2016)
136,031/515,406 (26.4% capacity), [233/1,460] - Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Mar., 2016)
136,021/413,696 (32.9% capacity), [259/1,802] - Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution (July, 2019)

 

Updated Projections after Saturday's numbers:

Friday: ¥1.15-1.30 billion ($11-12 million) / 910,000-975,000 admissions.
Saturday: ¥1.70-1.90 billion ($16-18 million) / 1,325,000-1,425,000 admissions.
Sunday: ¥1.55-1.70 billion ($15-16 million) / 1,200,000-1,275,000 admissions.

Opening Weekend (Sat. & Sun.): ¥3.2-3.6 billion ($30-34 million) / 2,525,000-2,700,000 admissions.
3-Day Total (Fri.-Sun.): ¥4.4-4.9 billion ($42-47 million) / 3,425,000-3,675,000 admissions.

Sunday could match or beat Saturday, but I'll be "conservative" and predict it'll match or drop ~10%.

Edited by Cynosure
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Corpse :

 

All-Time Opening Weekends (2-Day) - REVENUE

00. ~¥3,500,000,000 (~$33 million) - [1100+?] - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *Updated Projection (10/17)*
01. ¥2,222,854,550 ($18.8 million) - [631] - The Matrix Reloaded (2003) *w/previews*
02. ¥2,068,252,580 ($17.0 million) - [919] - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (2007)
03. ¥2,050,745,255 ($16.8 million) - [858] - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002) *w/previews*
04. ¥1,944,562,960 ($16.6 million) - [760] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006) *w/previews*
05. ¥1,879,423,202 ($18.9 million) - [758] - Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith (2005) *w/previews*
06. ¥1,871,164,334 ($17.3 million) - [796] - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004) *w/previews*
07. ¥1,644,716,870 ($15.1 million) - [841] - War of the Worlds (2005) *w/previews*
08. ¥1,628,893,000 ($14.0 million) - [408] - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
09. ¥1,617,608,800 ($15.0 million) - [638] - The Matrix Revolutions (2003) *w/previews*
10. ¥1,616,000,000 ($14.9 million) - [878] - Frozen II (2019)
11. ¥1,604,609,245 ($13.5 million) - [639] - Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones (2002) *w/previews*
12. ¥1,550,280,200 ($12.4 million) - [578] - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
13. ¥1,542,985,506 ($14.8 million) - [729] - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004) *w/previews*
14. ¥1,483,804,112 ($14.0 million) - [448] - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
15. ¥1,471,311,021 ($12.2 million) - [881] - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
16. ¥1,456,401,175 ($12.6 million) - [550] - Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines (2003) *w/previews*
17. ¥1,463,827,700 ($13.1 million) - [403] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
18. ¥1,377,047,900 ($12.7 million) - [556] - Toy Story 4 (2019)
19. ¥1,372,054,050 ($16.7 million) - [300] - One Piece Film Z (2012)
20. ¥1,327,140,004 ($11.3 million) - [826] - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
21. ¥1,316,539,200 ($14.3 million) - [859] - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
22. ¥1,301,851,375 ($16.4 million) - [922] - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (2011)
23. ¥1,295,834,500 ($12.1 million) - [384] - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
24. ¥1,286,928,000 ($11.9 million) - [368] - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
25. ¥1,263,735,608 ($10.5 million) - [408] - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
26. ¥1,258,095,403 ($11.3 million) - [863] - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
27. ¥1,245,023,900 ($10.3 million) - [958] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
28. ¥1,226,000,000 ($9.6 million) - [760] - Spider-Man (2002)
29. ¥1,225,913,932 ($12.9 million) - [428] - Rookies (2009)
30. ¥1,216,654,000 ($10.8 million) - [1002] - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2018)
31. ¥1,209,158,900 ($11.1 million) - [348] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (2016)
32. ¥1,208,276,812 ($10.1 million) - [807] - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
33. ¥1,205,116,126 ($14.8 million) - [800] - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
34. ¥1,185,000,000 ($11.0 million) - [448] - Weathering With You (2019)
35. ¥1,155,771,000 ($10.9 million) - [739] - One Piece Film Gold (2016)
36. ¥1,133,513,323 ($14.1 million) - [224] - Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (2012)
37. ¥1,125,800,000 ($9.9 million) - [937] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017)
38. ¥1,122,000,000 ($10.3 million) - [842] - Aladdin (2019)
39. ¥1,096,150,000 ($9.8 million) - [439] - Code Blue (2018)
40. ¥1,084,000,000 ($10.0 million) - [778] - Spider-Man 2 (2004)
41. ¥1,065,362,800 ($9.7 million) - [773] - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
42. ¥1,057,808,800 ($8.7 million) - [434] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (2015)
43. ¥1,048,271,900 ($9.3 million) - [989] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)
44. ¥1,038,295,232 ($11.9 million) - [190] - One Piece Film Strong World (2009)
45. ¥1,037,341,850 ($9.5 million) - [962] - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (2019)
46. ¥1,034,459,534 ($9.8 million) - [481] - Ponyo (2008)
47. ¥1,013,719,284 ($8.8 million) - [475] - Hero (2007)
48. ¥1,010,000,000 ($8.9 million) - [318] - Spirited Away (2001)
49. ¥1,005,428,333 ($9.6 million) - [409] - Boys Over Flowers: Final (2008)



All-Time Opening Weekends (2-Day) - ADMISSIONS

00. ~2,650,000 - [1100+?] - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *Updated Projection (10/17)*
01. 1,486,743 - [631] - The Matrix Reloaded (2003) *w/previews*
02. 1,484,916 - [408] - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
03. 1,469,755 - [796] - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004) *w/previews*
04. 1,467,945 - [919] - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (2007)
05. 1,421,738 - [760] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006) *w/previews*
06. 1,390,446 - [858] - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002) *w/previews*
07. 1,357,977 - [758] - Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith (2005) *w/previews*
08. 1,279,120 - [578] - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
09. 1,210,000 - [878] - Frozen II (2019)
10. 1,198,210 - [729] - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004) *w/previews*
11. 1,190,009 - [841] - War of the Worlds (2005) *w/previews*
12. 1,186,413 - [881] - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
13. 1,144,539 - [403] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
14. 1,140,081 - [300] - One Piece Film Z (2012)
15. 1,138,689 - [639] - Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones (2002) *w/previews*
16. 1,110,913 - [638] - The Matrix Revolutions (2003) *w/previews*
17. 1,104,980 - [448] - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
18. 1,065,264 - [826] - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
19. 1,043,267 - [550] - Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines (2003) *w/previews*
20. 1,031,000 - [556] - Toy Story 4 (2019)
21. 1,012,000 - [384] - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
22. 987,568 - [368] - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
23. 987,387 - [428] - Rookies (2009)
24. 974,577 - [434] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (2015)
25. 933,781 - [353] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (2016)
26. 930,586 - [408] - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
27. 923,711 - [863] - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
28. 921,341 - [807] - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
29. 880,697 - [922] - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (2011)
30. 833,190 - [1002] - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2018)
31. 830,000 - [448] - Weathering With You (2019)
32. 828,149 - [859] - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
33. 820,830 - [739] - One Piece Film Gold (2016)
34. 819,738 - [190] - One Piece Film Strong World (2009)
35. 812,557 - [481] - Ponyo (2008)
30. 810,918 - [439] - Code Blue (2018)
31. 810,000 - [318] - Spirited Away (2001)
33. 805,350 - [409] - Boys Over Flowers: Final (2008)
34. 800,258 - [958] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)

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According to Corpse, nothing :

 

It has a November release date in Thailand. That's the only confirmed date so far to my knowledge. Well, it's supposed to be released in the U.S. in early 2021, but I'm doubting that.

And who knows where it could end up in Japan. This is such an unprecedented opening, and not just because it's breaking all the records, it's by just how much it's beating them by. A ¥20 billion ($200 million) total would be "expected" from a regular ole multiplier with how high its opening, and given the status the film has achieved, and its reception so far, it could do more than that. ¥25 billion ($250 million) would happen with just a good multiplier.

But this is very uncharted territory, so I don't want to get too into the "what will it gross?" conversation right now.

Ironically, COVID--the box-office killer almost everywhere else--is the only way this is happening right now, since it's allowed for crazy record seating. It would have been big in a normal year, certainly, but it'd be restricted to an extent. And COVID has Hollywood pulling or delaying all their films, so the next several months are totally empty outside of local competition. There's plenty of local films opening, and the Japan box-office can support itself fine enough, but Demon Slayer will be playing insanely wide for months with Hollywood's absence and could develop into a strong repeat viewer.

Edited by Cynosure
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38 minutes ago, The Gotham Bank said:

What's the next big release in Japan that could theoretically "hurt" DS? What is the potential final gross we are looking at here, considering it might  further break all the rules set for its genre due to lack of competition?

Imagine this opening followed by Your Name legs .:sparta:

:ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod:

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