JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Cynosure]

Given how leggy Japan can be, could even push the fun into 2021.

 

Corpse :

 

I've never put together a biggest 3-day opening weekend chart since Japan is a 2-day, Sat.-Sun., opening weekend market, and until just the past couple of years, Japanese films opened on Saturdays. And Hollywood films would also open on Saturdays sometimes, especially before 2006/2007 when it was common.

So putting together this chart would most just comprise of Hollywood films released between 2006-present, with a few Japanese films thrown in after they began opening on Fridays in 2017/2018.

However, here is Demon Slayer's estimated 3-day opening weekend compared to the top 3 biggest 3-day opening weekends before today:

Biggest 3-Day Opening Weekends:
¥4,550,000,000-5,200,000,000 ($43-50 million) / 3,570,000-3,835,000 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *Estimate*
¥2,279,300,000 ($18.7 million) / 1.62/1.63 million (unofficial admissions) - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (2007)
¥1,939,746,600 ($17.8 million) / 1,452,530 admissions - Frozen II (2019)
¥1,938,977,200 ($15.9 million) / 1,486,413 admissions - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
 

Edited October 18, 2020 by Cynosure

[titanic2187]

I thought no one could challenge Spirited Away, especially after it added some further gross during re-release some while ago.

 

Now we have to consider the possibility of spirited away going down. And given how insane the opening, this is no longer a fanboys rush like typical anime franchise. This will likely be a full blown cultural phenomenon event. 

 

 

 

[Cynosure]

Corpse :

 

Fastest to ¥5 billion (Blockbuster Milestone):

3 or 4 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020)
10 - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
11 - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
12 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
13 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
13 - Spirited Away (2001)
14 - Weathering With You (2019)
14 - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
14 - Your Name. (2016)
14 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
14 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
14 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
15 - Jurassic World (2015)
15 - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
15 - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
15 - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
16 - Frozen II (2019)
16 - Toy Story 4 (2019)
16 - Aladdin (2019)
16 - Ponyo (2008)
16 - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (2007)
16 - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
16 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
17 - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (2019)
17 - Code Blue (2018)
17 - Frozen (2014)
17 - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (2011)
17 - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
17 - Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith (2005)
18 - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
18 - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2018)
18 - Rookies (2009)
18 - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
18 - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
19 - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017)
20 - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)
21 - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
21 - The Wind Rises (2013)
21 - One Piece Film Z (2012)
21 - Hero (2007)
22 - Avengers: Endgame (2019)
22 - Avatar (2009)
22 - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
22 - Finding Nemo (2003)
22 - Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines (2003)
22 - Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones (2002)
23 - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
23 - Big Hero 6 (2014)
23 - Arrietty (2010)
24 - Toy Story 3 (2010)
24 - The Last Samurai (2003)

Note: Not enough data for films released before 2000 to be included on this list, primarily including: Titanic, Princess Mononoke, Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace, Armageddon, Jurassic Park, E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial, and Antarctica -- all of which either likely exceeded ¥5 billion before 24 days (4 weeks) in release or had potential relative to their totals.

 

Biggest All-Time Aggregated Weekends (Top 10 Films; 1998-):

01. ¥3.950-4.450 billion - 10/17-18/2020 (#1 Film - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train) *Estimate*
02. ¥3.601 billion - 07/09-10/2005 (#1 Film - Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith)
03. ¥3.485 billion - 08/04-05/2001 (#1 Film - Spirited Away)
04. ¥3.427 billion - 05/03-04/2014 (#1 Film - Frozen)
05. ¥3.423 billion - 07/19-20/2003 (#1 Film - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge!)
06. ¥3.379 billion - 08/08-09/2015 (#1 Film - Jurassic World)
07. ¥3.377 billion - 08/10-11/2019 (#1 Film - One Piece Stampede)
08. ¥3.329 billion - 07/21-22/2007 (#1 Film - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix)
09. ¥3.314 billion - 07/22-23/2006 (#1 Film - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest)
10. ¥3.297 billion - 08/15-16/2015 (#1 Film - Jurassic World)
11. ¥3.212 billion - 07/28-29/2001 (#1 Film - Spirited Away)
12. ¥3.160 billion - 04/17-18/2010 (#1 Film - Alice in Wonderland)
13. ¥3.150 billion - 04/29-30/2017 (#1 Film - Beauty and the Beast)
14. ¥3.133 billion - 08/16-17/2003 (#1 Film - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge!)
15. ¥3.106 billion - 12/19-20/2015 (#1 Film - Star Wars: The Force Awakens)
16. ¥3.100 billion - 07/13-14/2019 (#1 Film - Toy Story 4)
17. ¥3.048 billion - 07/21-22/2001 (#1 Film - Spirited Away)
18. ¥3.046 billion - 12/20-21/2014 (#1 Film - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan!)
19. ¥3.026 billion - 08/04-05/2018 (#1 Film - Code Blue)

I put together some rough estimates for the other 9 films in the Top 10 this weekend, and they total around ¥550 million. Demon Slayer likely grossed between ¥3.4-3.9 billion (maybe enough to make this weekend #1 on its own), so it accounted for ~86/87% of the top 10's gross based on my estimates.

Edited October 18, 2020 by Cynosure

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

I thought no one could challenge Spirited Away, especially after it added some further gross during re-release some while ago.

No one is touching SA even now. Expecting 18-20bn from this one, well short of SA.

[SchumacherFTW]

Nothing is going to touch Spirited Away without Your Name style legs where it is still in the top 3 six months after release. 

[The Gotham Bank]

Everyone gangsta until DS increases and breaks the record again next weekend 

[PKMLover]

Monday is trending even higher now. I'm expecting up to ¥700 million ($6.5 million+) today on 500,000+ admissions. It appears as though its Monday will be on par with the biggest Saturday and/or Sunday numbers of any past film. 

If it does that on Monday, and would behave like a normal, but well-received film that is appealing more toward females than men, I'd say its daily breakdown would be something like...

¥700 million ($6.5 million) / 550,000 admissions - Monday (currently trending to this target)
¥500 million ($4.5 million) / 390,000 admissions - Tuesday
¥775 million ($7.5 million) / 650,000 admissions - Wednesday
¥475 million ($4.5 million) / 375,000 admissions - Thursday
¥600 million ($5.5 million) / 475,000 admissions - Friday

Weekday total: ~¥3 billion (~$30 million) / ~2.5 million admissions

First week (7-day total) around ¥7.5-8 billion ($70-75 million) / 6 million+ admissions. Still waiting on the Weekend Actuals.

And then the second weekend would begin...

[The Gotham Bank]

Let's keep in mind that the weekdays are not benefitting of the same seat capacity as the weekend did.

[charlie Jatinder]

Actuals

Friday: ¥1,268,724,700 (910,507 admits)
Saturday: ¥1,717,223,350 (1,272,234 admits)
Sunday: ¥1,652,669,400 (1,239,752 admits)

Total: ¥4,623,117,450 (3,422,493 admits)

[charlie Jatinder]

So usual locations was 78% on Saturday, 80% on Sunday.

 

Monday perhaps $6.25mn Approx.

[PKMLover]

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train - Daily Performance Tracker

10/16 - Fri.: ¥1,268,724,700 ($12.0 million) / 910,507
10/17 - Sat.: ¥1,701,723,350 ($16.2 million) / 1,270,234
10/18 - Sun.: ¥1,652,669,400 ($15.7 million) / 1,239,752
10/19 - Mon.: ¥670,000,000 ($6.4 million) / 510,000 *est.*

4-Day Cumulative Total: ¥5,293,117,450 ($50.3 million) / 3,930,493 *est.*

[PKMLover]

At 10pm, Tue is loooking at 81% Mon

[The Gotham Bank]

Kinda embarrassing how BOM's recent article didn't even mention DS.

[titanic2187]

2 hours ago, The Gotham Bank said:

Kinda embarrassing how BOM's recent article didn't even mention DS.

People tend to forgot Japan was in fact a big movie market. In the past 10 years, this market produce 13 films with at least 100m gross, two of which are above 200m.

 

It is still a major market in any sense.

 

 

[PKMLover]

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train - Daily Performance Tracker

10/16 - Fri.: ¥1,268,724,700 ($12.0 million) / 910,507
10/17 - Sat.: ¥1,701,723,350 ($16.2 million) / 1,270,234
10/18 - Sun.: ¥1,652,669,400 ($15.7 million) / 1,239,752
10/19 - Mon.: ¥670,000,000 ($6.4 million) / 510,000 *est.*
10/20 - Tues.: ¥490,000,000 ($4.6 million) / 370,000 *est.*

5-Day Cumulative Total: ¥5,783,117,450 ($54.9 million) / 4,300,493 *est.*

 

At their busiest 12 locations, Toho Cinemas is resuming 100% capacity on the weekdays beginning tomorrow. These 12 locations in particular have literally sold out (or 90/95%) all their showings the past two days because of the 50% restriction.

Wednesdays tend to bounce back near Monday levels, with some exceptions since it's Ladies' Day (50% off tickets for females):

Family films often come in higher on on Wednesdays (mothers/babysitters and such taking their kids).
Any film appealing more toward a female demographic often come in higher on Wednesday.
Any film appealing more toward a male demographic doesn't see much, if any, boost. If it's a heavily male-skewing film, they can even drop sometimes versus Tuesday.

So, Demon Slayer does have a family and female skew to its audience, therefore it should see a nice bump over Tuesday and likely come in around, or higher than, Monday's numbers. So I'd expect ¥600-700 million ($6/7 million) / 500,000+ admissions for Wednesday. But we're still projecting an unprecedented release, so there's going to be room for abnormal behavior for awhile.

[Cynosure]

Corpse : 

 

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train - Record of Slayed Records List

-Highest Theater Count (403)
-Highest Screen Count (TBA)
-Highest Theater Seating Share (57.8%)
-Highest Showtime Count (22.4 avg. per theater)
-Highest Number of Seats (252.4 avg. per showing)
-Highest 2-Day PTA (¥8.32 million ($78,900))
-Highest 3-Day PTA (¥11.47 million ($108,700))

-Biggest IMAX Opening [¥238 million ($2.3 million); ¥6.26 million ($59,600) avg. per screen]

-Biggest 2-Day Opening Weekend (¥3,354,392,750 ($31.9 million))
-Biggest 3-Day Opening Weekend (¥4,623,117,450 ($43.9 million))

-Biggest Opening Day
-Biggest Single Day (Saturday)
-Biggest Second Single Day (Sunday)
-Biggest Third Single Day (Friday)

-Biggest Friday (¥1,268,724,700 ($12.0 million))
-Biggest Saturday (¥1,701,723,350 ($16.2 million))
-Biggest Sunday (¥1,652,669,400 ($15.7 million))
-Biggest Monday (¥670,000,000 ($6.4 million)) *est.*
-Biggest Tuesday (¥490,000,000 ($4.6 million)) *est.*

-Biggest 1-Day Total (¥1,268,724,700 ($12.0 million))
-Biggest 2-Day Total (¥2,970,448,050 ($28.2 million))
-Biggest 3-Day Total (¥4,623,117,450 ($43.9 million))
-Biggest 4-Day Total (¥5,293,117,450 ($50.3 million)) *est.*
-Biggest 5-Day Total (¥5,783,117,450 ($54.9 million)) *est.*

-Fastest to ¥1 Billion (1-Day)
-Fastest to ¥2 Billion (2-Days)
-Fastest to ¥3 Billion (3-Days)
-Fastest to ¥4 Billion (3-Days)
-Fastest to ¥5 Billion (4-Days)

-Fastest to 1 Million Admissions (2-Days)
-Fastest to 2 Million Admissions (2-Days)
-Fastest to 3 Million Admissions (3-Days)
-Fastest to 4 Million Admissions (5-Days)

[Tower]

(C)吾峠呼世晴／集英社・アニプレックス・ufotable

Weekend Actuals (10/17-18):
01 (---) ¥3,354,392,750 ($31.9 million), 0, ¥4,623,117,450 ($43.9 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) NEW
02 (---) ¥138,872,600 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥185,992,620 ($1.7 million), Twiceborn (Nikkatsu) NEW
03 (01) ¥107,872,170 ($1.0 million), -37%, ¥2,271,164,130 ($21.6 million), Tenet (Warner Bros.) WK5
04 (02) ¥x77,785,700 ($737,000), -33%, ¥801,844,950 ($7.6 million), The Asadas! (Toho) WK3
05 (03) ¥x77,441,300 ($734,000), +05%, ¥1,454,170,500 ($14.0 million), Violet Evergarden: The Movie (Shochiku) WK5
06 (---) ¥x34,550,740 ($327,000), 0, ¥x47,374,980 ($0.4 million), Wife of a Spy (Bitters End) NEW
07 (05) ¥x30,384,000 ($288,000), -45%, ¥1,085,377,700 ($10.4 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Rakuga Kingdom and the Four Heroes (Toho) WK6
08 (04) ¥x29,962,590 ($284,000), -54%, ¥200,476,970 ($1.9 million), Hope (Kadokawa) WK2
09 (---) ¥x29,794,090 ($284,000), 0, ¥x42,069,550 ($0.4 million), Mio's Cookbook (Toei) NEW
10 (07) ¥x27,309,400 ($259,000), -24%, ¥469,850,180 ($4.4 million), Midnight Swan (Kino Films) WK4

New Biggest Aggregated Weekend (Top 10) Ever. Biggest Weekend of 2020 (duh). A day later than usual posting the Weekend Actuals, but I wanted all the numbers to be available this week before posting them so the aggregated Top 10 total is 100% accurate.

>Demon Slayer: Mugen Train takes #1. I think it's been discussed and analyzed over the last 12 pages to skip discussing it here now. It's broken every opening record possible.

>Tenet held well despite losing all of its IMAX screens. It's already become Nolan's second biggest film in the market, only behind Inception now, and is going to finish with a very good ¥2.5 billion ($25 million) total or so.

The Weekend Top 10 is up what must be a record 210.4% versus the same weekend last year.

[PKMLover]

Assuming it does around ¥400 million on Thursday (will be its lowest day thus far), and maybe around ¥550/600 million on Friday, it'll head into the weekend around ¥7.3/7.4 billion ($69/70 million).

It's really anyone's guess what's going to happen over the second weekend. Will it have an excellent hold around 20% like many well-received big openers average, for a ridiculous second weekend of ¥2.6 billion ($24/25 million)? That'd certainly bring its two-week, 10-day total extremely close to ¥10 billion ($95 million). This scenario will require a minimal decline in seating/showtimes over the weekend, which we don't have data on yet.

Or will it see a significant decline around 50% to earn ¥1.7 billion ($16 million) that sometimes happens to fanbase-driven films? (This film has gone beyond a fanbase-driven film, but just as an example.) First, that'd still break the second-weekend record which is currently held by Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone with ¥1.57 billion ($12.2 million). Second, I don't see anything suggesting it'll drop that hard based on its weekday performance. If it sees a really big drop today (Thursday) and a minimal recovery on Friday, then perhaps, but not at this moment. This scenario would have its two-week, 10-day total around ¥9 billion ($85 million).

The highest two-week total is ¥4.75 billion ($44.5 million) from Howl's Moving Castle, and yes Demon Slayer almost beat that with its 3-day opening weekend..., so it's possible that Demon Slayer could double the two-week total record, or get quite close to doubling it. Worst-case is breaking the two-week total record by 85/90%...

And the fastest film to reach ¥10 billion was Spirited Away after 25-days, followed by Your Name. and Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone tied at 28-days for second-fastest. Best-case, Demon Slayer does it in 10-days... WTF. Worse-cast, probably 13-days, still WTF.

_________________

[PKMLover]

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train - Daily Performance Tracker

10/16 - Fri.: ¥1,268,724,700 ($12.0 million) / 910,507
10/17 - Sat.: ¥1,701,723,350 ($16.2 million) / 1,270,234
10/18 - Sun.: ¥1,652,669,400 ($15.7 million) / 1,239,752
10/19 - Mon.: ¥670,000,000 ($6.4 million) / 510,000 *est.*
10/20 - Tues.: ¥490,000,000 ($4.6 million) / 370,000 *est.*
10/21 - Wed.: ¥570,000,000 ($5.4 million) / 470,000 *est.*
10/22 - Thur.: ¥420,000,000 ($4.0 million) / 315,000 *est.*
10/23 - Fri.: ¥625,000,000 ($6.0 million) / 470,000 *est.*

8-Day Cumulative Total: ¥7,398,117,450 ($70.3 million) / 5,555,493 *est.*

Demon Slayer's second Friday of approx. ¥625 million is the highest known Friday gross ever, only behind its own opening day last weekend.

Before Demon Slayer, only two known films achieved a Friday (their opening days) above ¥500 million, those two films being Star Wars IX (¥533 million) and Endgame (¥505 million). After them, the others on the list fall in the ¥400-500 million range (all opening days), including: Pirates 3 (¥467 million), Star Wars VII (¥462 million), Harry Potter 8 (¥459 million), Weathering With You (¥458 million), One Piece Stampede (¥455 million), and Detective Conan 23 (¥422 million).

Biggest Fridays:

¥1.268 billion - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Opening Day)
¥625 million - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2nd Friday) *est.*
¥533 million - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Opening Day)
¥505 million - Avengers: Endgame (Opening Day)
¥467 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Opening Day)
¥462 million - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Opening Day)
¥459 million - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (Opening Day)
¥458 million - Weathering With You (Opening Day)
¥455 million - One Piece Stampede (Opening Day)
¥422 million - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Opening

Edited October 23, 2020 by PKMLover

[PKMLover]

Highest Saturday Pre-Sales (2014-) [~50% of Market]

495,308 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) 1st Saturday
404,653 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) 2nd Saturday
260,329 - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
170,054 - Frozen II (2019) 1st Saturday
138,795 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
134,399 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)
133,265 - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (2019)
126,032 - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017)
117,302 - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
116,563 - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (2015)
114,570 - One Piece Film Gold (2016)
113,434 - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
106,945 - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
103,969 - Frozen II (2019) 2nd Saturday
x94,641 - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (2016)
x93,216 - Beauty and the Beast (2017) 1st Saturday
x92,166 - Avengers: Endgame (2019)
x91,384 - Weathering With You (2019)
x88,838 - Toy Story 4 (2019)
x85,557 - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2018)
x84,025 - Aladdin (2019)
x78,000 - Beauty and the Beast (2017) 2nd Saturday

(Went back to add ANY Saturday presale figure above 75,000, so some OTHER second Saturday's could make the list...)

Saturday pre-sales are only down 18%, 18% versus last Saturday. 18%. This demon might really do 2 million admissions in its second weekend.

I've been waiting to say it, wanting to get more numbers, trying to find some sign of weakness, but... Spirited Away is in danger, the most danger it's ever been in. Demon Slayer will be about a third of the way to its total after this weekend concludes with a second weekend maybe 2.5x higher than Spirited's opening weekend.

_________________