Weekend Estimates (8/3-5/12): TDKR @ #1 w/ $10.4m Fri/35.5 wknd, TR: $9.2m/24.5 (Boxoffice.com est.)

[Moviedweeb]

FRIDAY 10:30 PM, 2ND UPDATE: Based on today’s trends, it looks like Sony Pictures’ reboot of 1990′s iconic Arnold Schwarzenegger actioner Total Recall now starring anything-but-iconic Colin Farrell isn’t giving Warner Bros’ and Legendary Pictures’ third-weekend-veteran The Dark Knight Rises the tight race Hollywood expected. (Nice to hear from my opinionated gurus again…) But theatrical grosses are still not returning to normal. Instead of the Aurora shooting tragedy spooking box office, the red-hot London Olympics (“NBC Holds America Hostage: Day 8″) is distracting filmgoers. Total moviegoing this weekend looks like $120M which is down yet again (-25%) from last year.Right now it looks like the PG-13 rated TDKR (4,242 theaters) bounces back for $10.2M Friday and $36M for the weekend. PG-13 Total Recall (3,601 theaters) will gross $9.5M Friday and $26.5M for the weekend. But rival studios point out that won’t be enough to make up its $150M cost unless it hits big overseas. On the other hand, Fox’s PG-rated Diary Of A Wimpy Kid 3 (3,392 theaters) was made on only a $22M negative. This is the first time any installment in the successful Wimpy Kid franchise isn’t opening in March. And while the original and sequels scored $22.1M and $23.7M respectively, the new one called Dog Days is opening for about $6M Friday and $17M for the weekend. Full analysis and refined numbers later. Here’s the Top Ten based on Friday estimates:1. Dark Knight Rises (Legendary/Warner Bros) Week 3 [4,242 Runs] PG13Friday $10.2M, Weekend $36.0M, Cume $354.0M2. Total Recall (Sony) NEW [3,601 Runs] PG13Friday $9.5M, Weekend $26.5M3. Diary Of A Wimpy Kid 3 (Fox) NEW [3,391 Runs] PGFriday $6.0M, Weekend $17.0M4. Ice Age 4 (Fox) Week 4 [3,542 Runs] PGFriday $2.3M, Weekend $7.8M, Cume $131.3M5. The Watch (Fox) Week 2 [3,168 Runs] RFriday $1.8M (-57%), Weekend $5.6M, Cume $24.6M6. Ted (Universal) Week 6 [2,767 Runs] RFriday $1.6M, Weekend $5.5M, Cume $203.4M6. Step Up Revolution (Summit/Lgate) Week 2 [2,606 Runs] PG13Friday $1.6M,Weekend $4.8M, Cume $22.5M8. The Amazing Spider-Man (Col/Sony) Week 5 [2,425 Runs] PG13Friday $1.3M, Weekend $4.5M, Cume $250.8M9. Brave (Pixar-Disney) Week 7 [2,110 Runs] PGFriday $750K, Weekend $2.5M, Cume $222.9M10. Magic Mike (Warner Bros) Week 6 [1,202 Runs] RFriday $500K, Weekend $1.4M, Cume $110.9M

Edited August 4, 2012 by Clavius

[Letsuseournoggin]

http://www.deadline....olding-its-own/FRIDAY 1 PM: Based on matinee trends, it looks like a tight weekend race for #1 between Sony Pictures’ reboot Total Recall and Warner Bros’ and Legendary Pictures’ third-weekend-veteran The Dark Knight Rises. Nice to hear from my box office gurus again now that the theatrical grosses are returning to normal following the Aurora shooting tragedy. But exactly how big a bite the continuing popularity of the London Olympics games will take remains to be seen. Right now it looks like the PG-13 Total Recall (3,601 theaters) reboot will gross $9.5-$12.5M today and $26M-$32M for the weekend. R-rated TDKR (4,242 theaters) looks like $8M-$10M today and $27M-$33M for the weekend. Finally this is the first time any installment of the Wimpy Kid franchise is opening not in March but in summer. But Fox’s PG-rated Diary Of A Wimpy Kid 3: Dog Days (3,392 theaters) is as usual holding its own for about $7M-8M today and $19M-$23M for the weekend. More later.

Impressive... for Total Recall. I guess.TDRK is R rated?

[MagnetMan]

Yep. TR is doing a lot better than I thought it would

[Moviedweeb]

Yep. TR is doing a lot better than I thought it would

The really advertised the sh*t out of it. I have never seen so many TV spots.

[Letsuseournoggin]

Wimpy kid is overperforming, IMO. TR is doing good, but relative to budget, it's merely ok.

Edited August 3, 2012 by Letsuseournoggin

[MrPink]

If I recall correctly Battleship originally started in the 30 million range and sank throughout the day.

[DavidBrennan]

Yep. TR is doing a lot better than I thought it would

Me, too.But I get the feeling that Nikki is just over-stating it so that later on she can make up some more bullshit about how TDKR "came from behind against incredible odds" or whatever else. She's been building up TDKR non-stop.

[Chewy]

If I recall correctly Battleship originally started in the 30 million range and sank throughout the day.

I see what you did there

[MrPink]

I see what you did there

My god.Purely unintentional actually.

[Jack Nevada]

No! No. No goddammit! TR cant defeat TDKR, can it?

[Gopher]

9.5-12.5, if it's even accurate, wouldn't be a terribly successful OD. Mediocre given the budget. I wonder where she got her information about Batman. TDKR doesn't stand for "The Dark Knight Restricted."

[MovieGuyKyle17]

I still have my money on Batman losing its #1 spot to Bourne not Total Recall

[Letsuseournoggin]

No! No. No goddammit! TR cant defeat TDKR, can it?

Possible, but doubtful. Closer than originally thought though. Edited August 3, 2012 by Letsuseournoggin

[Chewy]

It's a pretty horrible opening day, just not quite as horrible as we were expecting

[iceroll]

$26M-$32M is pretty much in line with expectations and puts it on the level of Battleship and John Carter in terms of OW vs. budget.

[JackO]

Good to see some decent numbers at the box office this weekend. Good for Wimpy Kid and TDKR. Average to bad for Total Recall.

[Jay Beezy]

I still have my money on Batman losing its #1 spot to Bourne not Total Recall

What is Bourne tracking at right now?

[CJohn]

Impressive... for Total Recall. I guess.TDRK is R rated?

Our godess strikes again. Edited August 3, 2012 by CJohn

[John Marston]

less than 30m for TDKR. Oh shit!!!

Edited August 3, 2012 by John Marston

[ecstasy]

So I guess the midnight number TR wasn't enough to count by itself. They just rolled it into Friday, lol.But that is still good for all of the flack this movie has been getting here.